How to Profit from the EU Referendum?

This is a discussion on How to Profit from the EU Referendum? within the Economic & Fundamental Analysis forums, part of the Methods category; I'm assuming it being a referendum that results will be announced by area/constituency one at a time like the Scottish ...

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Old Feb 22, 2016, 10:03pm   #9
 
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I'm assuming it being a referendum that results will be announced by area/constituency one at a time like the Scottish referendum..Also, im assuming this will be announced throughout the evening, giving a end result in the early hours of morning...Therefore, outside London and USA opening times, will you then not be relying on Asian and Australian markets for liquidity ?
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Old Feb 22, 2016, 11:08pm   #10
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35628733

After the first real trading day since the referendum date here's what they are saying on BBC News

We have been lower in 2008 and 2000 - so there you are a sequence - every 8 yrs ;-)

With regards to the real action on June 23 or 24 - insiders will know well before everyone else - just like this last Conservative shock clear election win - so I am sure the main moves will be not in the Asian session.

The low of I have got as been around the 3500 area and atm we are around 4150 atm after a 4060 low earlier on today

So another 300 - 500 pips to play with on sells without setting off new alarms bells - and although I cannot see us above 2.100 approx high of 2007 - that's over 5000 pips higher - 2000 pip higher would certainly be on the cards if the market makers think its time to "fry" all the bears of the last 14 -18 months.

Not checked out the GA / GJ / other pound crosses - but as already mentioned the GJ did actually move approx 1000 pips in 1 day in 2010. ( UK election day)

Above 4180 and 4210 I will be intraday buying tomorrow for 4260 -80 area

Under 4100 - I will be selling and watching for a HL above the low of the day

GL - but cannot imaging another day like today on GU for a few weeks or even longer
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Old Feb 22, 2016, 11:53pm   #11
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As a day trader I take no view ......but I will enjoy the additional daily volatility it brings .....already the forex markets are rocking .on gpb pairs ......superb !
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Old Feb 23, 2016, 5:43am   #12
 
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I will look to buy shares after the event.
Would need a NO vote for my strategy.
After a no vote look for a big overdone sell off in the FTSE.
Look to buy blue chip companies that are sold off and not or less effected by Euro earnings.
See if you get the stocks on a good discount from long term average P/E valuations.
Then try to lock in some gains and maybe divs into year end.

Mind you after reading the some of the above, heaven forbid someone in the UK making a decision.

Will you be able to buy British artwork at discount price's?
https://www.artgallery.co.uk/sales/recent
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Old Feb 29, 2016, 5:59am   #13
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by timsk View Post
Hi Eric,
Just to be clear, the thread isn't about the politics of the situation or individual members' views - either for or against continued EU membership. Both of these are covered in other threads. It's about the best way to profit from whatever you expect the outcome of the referendum to be. So, for example, if you think the the result will be to stay in, will you be building a long EUR position perhaps? Alternatively, if you think the result will be to exit, will you be building a short GBP position? If you think your black swan scenario will prevail, will you be backing your judgement by shorting the FTSE?
Tim.
I think Eric was stating a way to profit from the Brexit. Emigration may be a hedge against a sinking economy due to the Brexit. In one situation, I could see the value of the pound plummet and as a result it would behoove you to move your money and yourself out of the country before that happens.

In yet another situation, I could envision the pound soaring after it leaves. A nation standing on its own without the burden of the EU. Case in point, the GBP/USD is at a relative low, which is good for Americans. When I buy things in England, which I frequently, I get more bang for my buck. If I foresaw that the UK economy stood to benefit from a Brexit, I may leave my money in England and emigrate anyway and possibly move to Spain or Portugal where things are dirt cheap. When the Brexit happened, my pounds in some British bank would be worth more relative to Spain's euro, allowing me to live more comfortably there than I could in the UK.
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Old Mar 5, 2016, 5:02pm   #14
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Don't trust the polls. Bookmakers price stay in EU result at 1/3, leave EU at 9/4.

Admittedly, 1/3 isn't a great r:r ratio but its surely a high probability bet?
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Old Mar 5, 2016, 5:09pm   #15
 
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@tomorton

Does this mean that you want the UK to stay in the EU? Do you think UK will leave the EU?

What do you think will happen to the value of the pound if there is a Brexit?
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- Margaret Thatcher

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Old Mar 5, 2016, 5:16pm   #16
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Originally Posted by hhiusa View Post
@tomorton

Does this mean that you want the UK to stay in the EU? Do you think UK will leave the EU?

What do you think will happen to the value of the pound if there is a Brexit?

I think there's money t be made regardless of what I think.

However, what I think is -
the UK should remain in the EU
the referendum result will be to remain in the EU
if there is a Brexit referendum result, the GBP will probably have bottomed by the time of the official announcement.
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