Higher probabliity Trend or Counter Trend??

Hi guys. do you guys find it much easier to trade with direction with the trend as opposed to counter trend?? I just hate the fact that CT trading is like standing in front of a freight train hoping that it stops just in front of you.. Trend (direction of net order flow) in opinion is the safest way to intra day trade especially the first and last hour of the day. CT is slightly more reliable during low volume lunch time consolidation trading ranges which favor to oscillators (leading indicators) as oppsoed to moving averages & MACD ( lagging indicators).

Just wonderin' if anyone had any thoughts on this.

Thanks

You need to be clear what the trends are in the significant superordinate and subordinate timeframes as well as having an awareness of a more fundamental nature along with analysis of cross-market influences on your target instrument before any sensible discussion can take place on what the trend may or may not be, let alone what it may or may not be turning into.

If you consider contra-trend moves to be only an optimum initating buying/selling (or adding to an existing Long/Short) strategy in respect of the established trend, this only makes sense if it is a pullback rather than a reversal. Without an eye on what's above and what's below and those other factors to which I allude, you simply can't make that assessment. You can't tell whether it is a time to get in or add or a time to exit or even exit and reverse. Or better yet, to have been ready for the higher probability of it to reverse from a neutral position.

If you're not looking at potentials for reversals above and using the same for micro-timing below you're not really in a position to even consider playing a potential tops & bottoms game. In which case playing the primary trend is definitely your safest option.

Trying to fit any instrument into specific time-of-day behaviours will not serve you over the long run in anything other than very general indications of potential volatility. There are higher probability volatiities (and even some directional characteristics) for many instruments over the daily and longer timeframes, but they are simply that - higher probabilities. They must never bias your trading or cause you to construct expectations.

You add parenthetically MACD as a lagging indicator. All indicators are lagging. Some seem to serve you better in trending markets and some better in rangebound, but that's typically a retrospective analysis. Few will serve you consistently in either market when you're up against the hard right edge, not sufficiently to put you ahead of the masses that also use them for exactly the same purpose.

Nice post, Tony.
Richard

trader2419 said:

Hi guys. do you guys find it much easier to trade with direction with the trend as opposed to counter trend?? I just hate the fact that CT trading is like standing in front of a freight train hoping that it stops just in front of you.. Trend (direction of net order flow) in opinion is the safest way to intra day trade especially the first and last hour of the day. CT is slightly more reliable during low volume lunch time consolidation trading ranges which favor to oscillators (leading indicators) as oppsoed to moving averages & MACD ( lagging indicators).

Just wonderin' if anyone had any thoughts on this.

Thanks

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I would have to say countertrend is the most probable since the market spends most of it's time consolidating anyway. I just follow past price, and move how the market appears to be moving. If it breaks the past trading range, I expect it to trend. But I'm usually expecting the market to turn at S/R.

Ektrader

ektrader said:

I would have to say countertrend is the most probable since the market spends most of it's time consolidating anyway. I just follow past price, and move how the market appears to be moving. If it breaks the past trading range, I expect it to trend. But I'm usually expecting the market to turn at S/R.

Ektrader

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I would agree that the market spends most of of its time consolidating. especially during the overnight session which already constitutes 66% of the entire available trading opportunities and during low volume lunch time hours which constitutes another ~20 %= 86 % of the time price is in range bound. But the best time to trade I find to be during that remaning 14 % of the time the market trends sharply which is the first 1.5 hours and last 1.5 hours of the day. So yeah CT is ok if your trading no volume overnight sessions or lunch time. Mind you I am speaking about ES futures, not 4 X.

I agree to stay away from the first and last 1.5 hours of the day market if your looking for a counter trend. also watch out for any news, that can really make the market trend.
also about 3 or so times a month the s&p will open and run in one direction for the first hour and a half with little or no pull backs, if it does this then there is a good chance it will just continue in that direction all day, even with no volume there may be no counter trend for the entire day.

DeadMoney said:

I agree to stay away from the first and last 1.5 hours of the day market if your looking for a counter trend. also watch out for any news, that can really make the market trend.
also about 3 or so times a month the s&p will open and run in one direction for the first hour and a half with little or no pull backs, if it does this then there is a good chance it will just continue in that direction all day, even with no volume there may be no counter trend for the entire day.

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FINALLY SOMEONE WITH COMMON SENSE. COULD NOT SAY IT BETTER DEAD $$. FINALLY A UNBIASED OPINION. LOVE CALIFORNIA BY THE WAY. I AM NOT REALLY FROM ALGERIA. GOTTA CHANGE THAT!!

DeadMoney said:

I agree to stay away from the first and last 1.5 hours of the day market if your looking for a counter trend. also watch out for any news, that can really make the market trend.
also about 3 or so times a month the s&p will open and run in one direction for the first hour and a half with little or no pull backs, if it does this then there is a good chance it will just continue in that direction all day, even with no volume there may be no counter trend for the entire day.

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I ALSO USE MY PIVOTS.COM AND CLICK ON ECONOMIC EVENTS THAT WOULD INFLUENCE PRICE ACTION. I LIKE IT BECAUSE IT IS ONLY 2 CLICKS OF A MOUSE AND I HAVE THAT INFO,
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:clap:

I also look at pivots.com and watch to see if the market approaches one of the levels.

another thing I look at is what all the foreign markets have done over night, if all markets are down huge this would keep me in a short trade a little longer. if they were up huge then I might stay in a long position a little longer.

I think if you just watch the market everyday looking for signs after some months you will start to notice things, once you have a couple hundred clues about the market you can start putting them together and trading profitably.

good luck trading.