NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! TheRumpledOne

This is a discussion on NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! TheRumpledOne within the Discretionary Trading forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by croker and they're also discussing currency trading in the equities forum i've been sure to post the ...

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Old Nov 26, 2008, 2:30pm   #766
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by croker View Post
and they're also discussing currency trading in the equities forum


i've been sure to post the results in the correct forum (i hope!)
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 3:41pm   #767
 
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Originally Posted by zupcon View Post
In the interest of balance, another losing trade at 11:01 EURUSD long from 1.2978 -20, so only another 4 winners required to claw the losses back

Please post YOUR M1 or M5 chart showing the loss. That's what I was asked to do. The "rules" must apply to all posters.

My chart shows a 5 pip win.
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Last edited by TheRumpledOne; Nov 26, 2008 at 3:50pm.
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 3:48pm   #768
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UKtradergirl View Post
Don't you want promotion?!?

--

Anyone can call trade entries, as TRO is doing here. You can use any method under the sun for doing this. The real test comes when it is time to manage that trade once it is entered. TRO offers the 'watch the price action' method which is no help whatsoever. Even when pushed to define some exact money management rules he only comes up with a rough idea (strange considering he has been doing this for years) and admits that it is not going to give the best results.

I quote from one of my favourite trading books:

"Beginners keep looking for promising trades and assume that finding them will make them money. They search for entries, while professionals spend a lot of time and energy planning their exits.... Survivors know the essential truth- you don't get paid for entering trades, you get paid for exiting them"

Exits are a vital part of any way of trading. Why have you not spent adequate time and energy on this point? This is the vital flaw in your trading. The author goes on to explain why just watching for price action after you enter a trade is not a great idea.

Any way of trading which does not show how to exit a trade or manage it- flags up an immediate warning in my head. Any fool can devise a system for entering a trade. I could come up with 20 ways- and in your chatroom yesterday we talked about some-- like entering at any random time in the direction of the hourly candle, or entering at 5 minutes past every hour in the direction of the candle, etc. You agreed with me on these points, you said, "why not?"

This just shows that your entries are just a random concoction and bear no significance at all. And your system doesn't adequately describe exits or management

So i ask... what is left...??!!
Do you have short term memory loss. UKtradergirl?

You keep calling what I am talking about a "system".

It's not a "system".

Once again, UKtradergirl, I never said it was a "system". My whole point is to get people to SEE what PRICE is doing WITHOUT indicators.

Exits, money management, risk management are important. But they have nothing to do with the entry.

Once again, UKtradergirl, I never said it was a "system". My whole point is to get people to SEE what PRICE is doing WITHOUT indicators.

I am of the school that the entry is more important simply because if your entry NEVER gives you the opportunity to TAKE PROFIT then all the exit does is minimize the damage.

Once again, UKtradergirl, I never said it was a "system". My whole point is to get people to SEE what PRICE is doing WITHOUT indicators.

That is why I search for STATISTICALLY WINNING ENTRIES. After I enter a trade and see 5 pips or more profit, I can handle it from there.

Once again, UKtradergirl, I never said it was a "system". My whole point is to get people to SEE what PRICE is doing WITHOUT indicators.
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 3:57pm   #769
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne View Post

Please post YOUR chart.

My chart shows a 5 pip win.
t2w isnt allowing me to upload charts, no idea why. The entry was 11:01 GMT, stopped out at 11:29 for -20, watching it on 2 different feeds it saw +1 at best bbefore reversing

just pointing out cases where system shows a losing trade. I have noticed that many of the losing trades occur just after the open of the new bar, and where the open of the bar is within a few pips of the line, so whilst the bar is technically red or green, there's no real momentum behind the move

Having said that, the nature of the system should average these out over time, and the observations being made on a dozen or so losing trades I've seen over the last week or so. It might be interesting to analyse the losing trade from the back test results to see if the losing trades are prediominantly occuring under these conditions, or if they are randomly distributed.
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 5:05pm   #770
 
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Another winner.
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 5:07pm   #771
 
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Originally Posted by zupcon View Post
t2w isnt allowing me to upload charts, no idea why. The entry was 11:01 GMT, stopped out at 11:29 for -20, watching it on 2 different feeds it saw +1 at best bbefore reversing

just pointing out cases where system shows a losing trade. I have noticed that many of the losing trades occur just after the open of the new bar, and where the open of the bar is within a few pips of the line, so whilst the bar is technically red or green, there's no real momentum behind the move

Having said that, the nature of the system should average these out over time, and the observations being made on a dozen or so losing trades I've seen over the last week or so. It might be interesting to analyse the losing trade from the back test results to see if the losing trades are prediominantly occuring under these conditions, or if they are randomly distributed.
I can't upload zipfiles.

zupcon, use tinypic to upload your chart and then copy/paste the IMG to your post.
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 5:10pm   #772
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne View Post
I can't upload zipfiles.
zupcon, use tinypic to upload your chart and then copy/paste the IMG to your post.
ok, will sort something out and upload later

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Old Nov 26, 2008, 6:17pm   #773
 
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Another winner.

From this point on, I am going to assume that a trade is a winner unless someone posts a chart showing it's a loser.
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 6:19pm   #774
 
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TheRumpledOne started this thread Here's the Custom Candle code since I can't upload my zip file:

Code:
#property link      "mankurt@freemail.ru"
#property copyright "© 2006, mankurt"
#property indicator_chart_window
//+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+



extern int   TimeFrame=60;
extern color UpCandle=DarkGreen;
extern color DnCandle=Purple;
extern color DojiColor=Blue;
extern int   Width=1;
extern bool  BGCandle=True;



//+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
int      Nbar,OpenBar,timer,i,timerTF,name,MidBar;
double   HighPrevBar,LowPrevBar,ClosePrevBar;
double   OpenNewBar,HighNewBar,LowNewBar,CloseNewBar;
double   HighCurBar,LowCurBar,CloseCurBar;
double   priceNewSH,priceNewSL,pricePrevSH,pricePrevSL,priceCurSH,priceCurSL;
string   nameNewCandle,namePrevCandle;
string   nameNewShadowH,nameNewShadowL,namePrevShadowH,namePrevShadowL;
string   NameBar, NameHigh, NameLow;
datetime TimeOpenNewBar,TimeCloseNewBar,TimeClosePrevBar;
datetime timeNewShadow,timePrevShadow;
bool     NewBar;

string     yymmddms  ;
int cd ;
datetime   r ; 

//+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

int init()
{
IndicatorShortName("M"+TimeFrame+" íà M"+Period());
Nbar=TimeFrame/Period();
timer=Period()*60;
timerTF=TimeFrame*60;
name=0;

TimeOpenNewBar=Time[Bars-1]; 
OpenNewBar=Open[Bars-1];

NewBar=false;
NameBar="Bar M"+TimeFrame+"-";
NameHigh="High M"+TimeFrame+"-";
NameLow="Low M"+TimeFrame+"-";
return(0);}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

int deinit(){
for(int DelOBJ=1; DelOBJ<=name; DelOBJ++){
ObjectDelete(NameBar+DelOBJ);
ObjectDelete(NameHigh+DelOBJ);
ObjectDelete(NameLow+DelOBJ);}
Comment("");
return(0);}

//+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

int start()
{

if(TimeFrame>1440)
{Comment("\n"," TimeFrame more than D1 is not supporting!!!");return(0);}
if(Period()>240)
{Comment("\n"," Period more than H4 is not supporting!!!");return(0);}
if(TimeFrame<=Period()||MathMod(TimeFrame,Period())!=0)
{Comment("\n"," TimeFrame should be more or divisible by M",Period());return(0);}
i=Bars-IndicatorCounted();
while(i>0){i--;
while(i>=0) if(Time[i]==TimeOpenNewBar||BarNew(i,TimeFrame)==false)i--;
             else{NewBar=true; name++; break;}
if(i<0) i=0;
if(NewBar==true){
//+-----------------------------------------Previos Bar--------------------------------------------+
  OpenBar=iBarShift(0,0,TimeOpenNewBar,false);
  TimeClosePrevBar=Time[i+1];
  ClosePrevBar=Close[i+1];
  HighPrevBar=High[Highest(0,0,MODE_HIGH,OpenBar-i,i+1)];
  LowPrevBar=Low[Lowest(0,0,MODE_LOW,OpenBar-i,i+1)];
  namePrevCandle=NameBar+(name-1);
  MidBar=OpenBar-MathRound((OpenBar-i)/2);
  timePrevShadow=Time[MidBar];
  pricePrevSH=PriceShadow(OpenNewBar,ClosePrevBar,0);
  pricePrevSL=PriceShadow(OpenNewBar,ClosePrevBar,1);
  namePrevShadowH=NameHigh+(name-1);
  namePrevShadowL=NameLow+(name-1);
//+----------------------------------Modifi Previos Bar & Shadow-----------------------------------+
if(ObjectFind(namePrevCandle)==0){
  ObjectMove(namePrevCandle,1,TimeClosePrevBar,ClosePrevBar);
  PropBar(OpenNewBar,ClosePrevBar,namePrevCandle);
  if(OpenBar==i+1) ObjectSet(namePrevCandle,OBJPROP_WIDTH, Width*3);}
if(ObjectFind(namePrevShadowH)==0){
  if(pricePrevSH==HighPrevBar) ObjectDelete(namePrevShadowH);
   else{ObjectMove(namePrevShadowH,0,timePrevShadow,pricePrevSH);
    ObjectMove(namePrevShadowH,1,timePrevShadow,HighPrevBar);
    ColorShadow(OpenNewBar,ClosePrevBar,namePrevShadowH);
    ObjectSetText(namePrevShadowH,"High="+DoubleToStr(HighPrevBar,Digits),7,"Tahoma");}}
if(ObjectFind(namePrevShadowL)==0){
  if(pricePrevSL==LowPrevBar) ObjectDelete(namePrevShadowL);
   else{ObjectMove(namePrevShadowL,0,timePrevShadow,pricePrevSL);
    ObjectMove(namePrevShadowL,1,timePrevShadow,LowPrevBar);
    ColorShadow(OpenNewBar,ClosePrevBar,namePrevShadowL);
    ObjectSetText(namePrevShadowL,"Low="+DoubleToStr(LowPrevBar,Digits),7,"Tahoma");}}
//+-------------------------------------------New Bar----------------------------------------------+
  OpenNewBar=Open[i];
  TimeOpenNewBar=Time[i];
  HighNewBar=High[i];
  LowNewBar=Low[i];
  CloseNewBar=Close[i];
  TimeCloseNewBar=Time[i]+timerTF-timer;
  nameNewCandle=NameBar+name;
  timeNewShadow=Time[i]+MathRound(Nbar/2)*timer;
  priceNewSH=PriceShadow(OpenNewBar,CloseNewBar,0);
  priceNewSL=PriceShadow(OpenNewBar,CloseNewBar,1);
  nameNewShadowH=NameHigh+name;
  nameNewShadowL=NameLow+name;
  NewBar=false;}
 else{
//+------------------------------------------Current Bar-------------------------------------------+
  OpenBar=iBarShift(0,0,TimeOpenNewBar,false);
  CloseCurBar=Close[i];
  HighCurBar=High[Highest(0,0,MODE_HIGH,OpenBar+1,i)];
  LowCurBar=Low[Lowest(0,0,MODE_LOW,OpenBar+1,i)];
  priceCurSH=PriceShadow(OpenNewBar,CloseCurBar,0);
  priceCurSL=PriceShadow(OpenNewBar,CloseCurBar,1);}
//+------------------------------Create New Object & Modifi Current--------------------------------+
if(ObjectFind(nameNewCandle)!=0){
  ObjectCreate(nameNewCandle,OBJ_RECTANGLE,0,TimeOpenNewBar,OpenNewBar,TimeCloseNewBar,CloseNewBar);
  ObjectSet(nameNewCandle,OBJPROP_STYLE, STYLE_SOLID);
  PropBar(OpenNewBar,CloseNewBar,nameNewCandle);}
 else{
  ObjectMove(nameNewCandle,1,TimeCloseNewBar,CloseCurBar);       
  PropBar(OpenNewBar,CloseCurBar,nameNewCandle);}
if(ObjectFind(nameNewShadowH)!=0){
  ObjectCreate(nameNewShadowH,OBJ_TREND,0,timeNewShadow,priceNewSH,timeNewShadow,HighNewBar);
  ObjectSet(nameNewShadowH,OBJPROP_STYLE, STYLE_SOLID);
  ObjectSet(nameNewShadowH,OBJPROP_WIDTH, Width);
  ObjectSet(nameNewShadowH,OBJPROP_RAY, false);
  ColorShadow(OpenNewBar,CloseNewBar,nameNewShadowH);}
 else{
  ObjectMove(nameNewShadowH,0,timeNewShadow,priceCurSH);
  ObjectMove(nameNewShadowH,1,timeNewShadow,HighCurBar);
  ColorShadow(OpenNewBar,CloseCurBar,nameNewShadowH);}
if(ObjectFind(nameNewShadowL)!=0){
  ObjectCreate(nameNewShadowL,OBJ_TREND,0,timeNewShadow,priceNewSL,timeNewShadow,LowNewBar);
  ObjectSet(nameNewShadowL,OBJPROP_STYLE, STYLE_SOLID);
  ObjectSet(nameNewShadowL,OBJPROP_WIDTH, Width);
  ObjectSet(nameNewShadowL,OBJPROP_RAY, false);
  ColorShadow(OpenNewBar,CloseNewBar,nameNewShadowL);}
 else{
  ObjectMove(nameNewShadowL,0,timeNewShadow,priceCurSL);
  ObjectMove(nameNewShadowL,1,timeNewShadow,LowCurBar);
  ColorShadow(OpenNewBar,CloseCurBar,nameNewShadowL);}}
//+-------------------------------------Comment OHLC-----------------------------------------------+
Comment(Symbol(),",M",TimeFrame,"   O=",OpenNewBar,",  H=",HighCurBar,
                                ",  L=",LowCurBar,",  C=",CloseCurBar,"\n");
return(0);}
//+---------------------Main Function "New Bar or Old Bar"-----------------------------------------+
bool BarNew (int j, int tmf)
{int t0=1440*(TimeDayOfWeek(Time[j])-1)+60*TimeHour(Time[j])+TimeMinute(Time[j]),
t1=1440*(TimeDayOfWeek(Time[j+1])-1)+60*TimeHour(Time[j+1])+TimeMinute(Time[j+1]);
if(MathMod(t0,tmf)-MathMod(t1,tmf)==t0-t1)return(false);
else return(true);}
//+---------------------Function "Price Shadow"----------------------------------------------------+
double PriceShadow (double OpnB, double ClsB, int swt)
{double prH, prL;
if(OpnB<ClsB){prH=ClsB; prL=OpnB;}
if(OpnB>ClsB){prH=OpnB; prL=ClsB;}
if(OpnB==ClsB){prH=ClsB; prL=ClsB;}
switch(swt){case 0:return(prH);break;
case 1:return(prL);break;}}
//+---------------------Function "Properti Bars"---------------------------------------------------+
void PropBar (double OpPr, double ClPr, string NmOBJ)
{string Cl=" Close="+DoubleToStr(ClPr,Digits);
string Op=" Open="+DoubleToStr(OpPr,Digits);
if(OpPr==ClPr){ObjectSet(NmOBJ,OBJPROP_BACK, false);
ObjectSet(NmOBJ,OBJPROP_COLOR,DojiColor);
ObjectSetText(NmOBJ,"Doji "+Op+Cl,7,"Tahoma");}
if(OpPr<ClPr){ObjectSet(NmOBJ,OBJPROP_COLOR,UpCandle);
ObjectSet(NmOBJ,OBJPROP_BACK, BGCandle);
ObjectSetText(NmOBJ,"UpBar "+Op+Cl,7,"Tahoma");}
if (OpPr>ClPr){ObjectSet(NmOBJ,OBJPROP_COLOR,DnCandle);
ObjectSet(NmOBJ,OBJPROP_BACK, BGCandle);
ObjectSetText(NmOBJ,"DnBar "+Op+Cl,7,"Tahoma");}
ObjectSet(NmOBJ,OBJPROP_WIDTH, Width);}
//+----------------------Function "Color Shadow"---------------------------------------------------+
void ColorShadow (double OP, double CP, string NOBJ)
{if(OP==CP)ObjectSet(NOBJ,OBJPROP_COLOR,DojiColor);
if(OP<CP)ObjectSet(NOBJ,OBJPROP_COLOR,UpCandle);
if (OP>CP)ObjectSet(NOBJ,OBJPROP_COLOR,DnCandle);}
//+----------------------------------------------END-----------------------------------------------+
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 6:48pm   #775
 
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Many thanks for this useful code.
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 7:48pm   #776
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne View Post
Do you have short term memory loss. UKtradergirl?

You keep calling what I am talking about a "system".

It's not a "system".

Once again, UKtradergirl, I never said it was a "system". My whole point is to get people to SEE what PRICE is doing WITHOUT indicators.

Exits, money management, risk management are important. But they have nothing to do with the entry.

Once again, UKtradergirl, I never said it was a "system". My whole point is to get people to SEE what PRICE is doing WITHOUT indicators.

I am of the school that the entry is more important simply because if your entry NEVER gives you the opportunity to TAKE PROFIT then all the exit does is minimize the damage.

Once again, UKtradergirl, I never said it was a "system". My whole point is to get people to SEE what PRICE is doing WITHOUT indicators.

That is why I search for STATISTICALLY WINNING ENTRIES. After I enter a trade and see 5 pips or more profit, I can handle it from there.

Once again, UKtradergirl, I never said it was a "system". My whole point is to get people to SEE what PRICE is doing WITHOUT indicators.

Avery,

Do i have short term memory loss? Perhaps so, but i do usually remember things from one sentence to the next. There is no need to repeat yourself so many times, a simple answer/debate regarding the points i raised would have done.

If the entry is more important than the exit- and you pay this much attention to getting a good entry (random horizontal lines) then what hope does that hold out for exiting correctly?

How does entering at horizontal lines give you more of an edge, an ability to take profit?

What statistics do you base your 'statistically winning entries' on?
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 10:09pm   #777
 
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ANOTHER DAY OF ALL FILLED!!
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 10:17pm   #778
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UKtradergirl View Post
Avery,

Do i have short term memory loss? Perhaps so, but i do usually remember things from one sentence to the next. There is no need to repeat yourself so many times, a simple answer/debate regarding the points i raised would have done.

If the entry is more important than the exit- and you pay this much attention to getting a good entry (random horizontal lines) then what hope does that hold out for exiting correctly?

How does entering at horizontal lines give you more of an edge, an ability to take profit?

What statistics do you base your 'statistically winning entries' on?
Well, you keep asking questions that I have answered so I thought that maybe if I repeated myself several times in one post, it just might stick with you!!

Stats are based on how many times the price goes X pips past the horizontal line price divided by the number of times price touches the horizontal line. That's why I know I can grab 3 - 5 pips just about every time price hits 00, 25, 50, 75...

I also know that statistically once a price goes 7 pips past a price, it will usually continue in the same direction for a while before it returns to that price.

We also know that after 3 or more like colored H1 candles, the chances of a reversal increases dramatically. My buddy, Chip, has even broken it down by the hour so we know which reverse trades are even more likely to be profitable.

These are the things I want people to SEE when they look at charts.

Exit correctly? There is no correct/incorrect... only profitable/unprofitable.

Thanks for being polite, UKtradergirl.
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Old Nov 26, 2008, 10:59pm   #779
Joined Jun 2008
Just had a bit more of a think about this "system" and thought I would post some ideas that I may explore tomorrow.

First - Don't use normal candles. If you want to SEE then move to Heiken Ashi. These will give you a much better visual clue of what is happening - especially if you pay attention to the shadows.

Second. Use fractal lines of several timeframes to define entry lines rather than random numbers. You are then entering at breakout areas - and if the previous fractal point is also known then you can get an idea of the 'ladder' which I think is what a previous poster identified as the key point in choosing the entries.

got to rush - but anyone got any input on these ideas?
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Old Nov 27, 2008, 12:56am   #780
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by north5 View Post
Just had a bit more of a think about this "system" and thought I would post some ideas that I may explore tomorrow.

First - Don't use normal candles. If you want to SEE then move to Heiken Ashi. These will give you a much better visual clue of what is happening - especially if you pay attention to the shadows.

Second. Use fractal lines of several timeframes to define entry lines rather than random numbers. You are then entering at breakout areas - and if the previous fractal point is also known then you can get an idea of the 'ladder' which I think is what a previous poster identified as the key point in choosing the entries.

got to rush - but anyone got any input on these ideas?
Oh yes I have tried "improving" the setup just like you said using Heikin Ashi and fractals. The reason I wanted to "improve" the setup is to try and get way more than 5 pips. But the problem is the setup is designed just to get a few pips.

For me, Heikin Ashi doesn't really add anything to this setup. You can tell whether price is going up or down just by looking at the color of the hourly candle.

As for fractals lines and the breakouts I tried using those to get large pip gains but again the setup is ideally to get out with 5 pips. I've tried myself with fractal line breakouts on the 1 minute chart and had some good trades but that got me greedy and I lost a lot when the breakouts were false ones. I crossed off fractal lines for this setup.

But check it out this weekend and see if you agree.
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