NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! TheRumpledOne

This is a discussion on NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! TheRumpledOne within the Discretionary Trading forums, part of the Methods category; You're not going to get favourable backtest results anyway with an EA of this method. Because all MT4 brokers will ...

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Old Nov 25, 2008, 10:07am   #721
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You're not going to get favourable backtest results anyway with an EA of this method. Because all MT4 brokers will have a 2 pip eg EURUSD spread. With this approach you would need a broker with variable spreads that are usually around 1 pip - such as oanda.
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 10:11am   #722
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JTrader,

I agree and it's one of the problems with this system that the TP is so low - but I think most will be using this with SB's so a 2 pip spread is not unreasonable to expect as a spread. As I say, as an entry it may not be too bad - but the exit is truly awful.
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 10:13am   #723
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nunrgguy View Post
Hmmm, interesting. How I read the initial post is that only R:R is being looked out without taking into account price levels, account size and position size.

Randomly moving your stop up to achieve a better pip R:R on entry (which is only a guess anyway) WILL result in more losers as stated.

Your stop should be placed where price dictates not at an arbitrary pip level. Then, if, with your stop at that level you are only risking x% of your account you may trade. If you are risking more than x% your account is not big enough for that trade, you are risking too much and you do not trade. R:R just based on number of pips is nonesense.

Also, the notion of R:R at position entry is only a guide you use to aid position sizing and for a notional target. Actual reward is not known until the trade closes. You only know THEORETICAL REALISED AVERAGE R:R from your system from back and then forward testing and I would suggest doing it manually.

For example do it over 200 trades and you should then see the risk/reward and win/loss you can expect to achieve. Your results should also be compared to what you would expect to see from your realised R/R and win/loss against random entry (casino type simulator). Compare against the WORST case scenario for P/L and drawdown. Did the simulator in the worst case wipe you out? If it did then I'm afraid all you did is get lucky in your testing. How many probable losing/winning trades in a row does the simulator say can occur? Did the number of losers happen in a row in your backtest? If not is suspect you got lucky.

The variables that have to be taken into account are account size, % account risk, % acount reward, wins, losses:these are actuals.

And here's a thought, if the win/loss ratio of your system dictates the requirement for a 2:1 R/R then when looking for an entry your target needs to be GREATER than 2:1 because that 2:1 is an AVERAGE over x trades.


This then gives you a framework to measure perfomance against when trading live. You KNOW when your system is working, you have the confidence to go through the losing runs knowing that the drawdown is to be expected. You know when the strategy is going bad if the number of losing runs exceeds what is probable. You know when to stop.

Without all of this you are just gambling.

What the poster in the thread suggests is moving the stop wider, to a position dictated by price (GOOD) but then having a negative risk to reward (on the face of it BAD if he talking about REALISED risk to reward). What he is actually doing, on the face of it is cutting his winners early and letting his losers run and he will eventually get wiped out.
risk reward is everything.

also, with all due respect the number of trades you mention is small to make a comparison for future success. 200 trades is nothing in a strategy that makes as many trades per day as this does. even then the black swan isnt far away.

Systems like this never ever last. just circles that others have traded in before you and found to be fruitless. everyone tests, sees lots of good trades and then by the time they are happy with it they start to put money on it and it fails. The longer you test the closer you get to the black swan - always happens, always will.

Trading is not about systems like this, they are all false promises and just designed to hook in those who want the 'get rich quick' route to riches. The lure of trading on a laptop from the beach is a misnomer - learn to trade properley and you can spend all day on the beach without the laptop safe in the knowledge that you have a skill for life.

You become a trader the day you learn to manage risk and forget systems. trades that show a large positive risk:reward ratio are the way to learn to trade and there are lots.

I'm sure many will jump in now and dismiss what i suggest - those are the system fiends - systems for retail traders don't work consistently enough for you to base a future on them. If you think that's not true then ask yourself why TRO who's been around for years is still asking people to 'make it your own' and taking notice of those 'contributing'. Ask why he has to rely on his books and websites for income and why he's been banned from almost every website in the forex world.

Most important though - why after so many years does he not have a definitive point for point system? - cos they don't work so wake up.

Systems don't work for long enough - learn to manage risk and you'll never need another system again.

Outta here now - good luck to you all including TRO and bunny, but please, those out there desperately looking for a way of making money - don't waste your time - learn to manage risk instead.
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 12:45pm   #724
 
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Absolutely

Quote:
Originally Posted by fxwinner22 View Post
safe in the knowledge that you have a skill for life.
Well said.Top marks.

Profitable trading is a SKILL.
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 1:12pm   #725
 
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Late start this morning, so only 2 trades taken by the EA so far, +5, followed by a -20 +5, +5

In fairness to TRO, encouraging people to take random entries, and manage exits is a reasonable enough apppraoch.

Last edited by zupcon; Nov 25, 2008 at 2:15pm.
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 3:35pm   #726
 
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Originally Posted by zupcon View Post
Late start this morning, so only 2 trades taken by the EA so far, +5, followed by a -20 +5, +5

In fairness to TRO, encouraging people to take random entries, and manage exits is a reasonable enough apppraoch.
All I am encouraging people to do is SEE WHAT PRICE IS DOING.
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 3:38pm   #727
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Originally Posted by BSD View Post

As many people keep pointing out, your 1hr trigger charts are completely irrelevant for the MANAGING of your trade once it is on, as posting one hour charts AFTER they completed does NOT show one what happened IN the one hour bar after entry...

For the thousandth time - although you won't respond coherently here any more than in the other thread...

You ENTER off of a one hour chart...

Price goes against you by your sl of 25 pips...

You exit with a LOSS...

BUT...

Just looking at the one hour charts you keep posting it would LOOK like a winner, because the POTENTIAL for a 5 pip take profit was there...

But unfortunately in REAL life price went against you first.

THAT is why you never answer any questions re this most pertinent of objections...

And THAT is why you do NOT trade this in real life and post screen shots with 1 min charts that actually show what happened after you ENTERED your trades and that would offer proof that your systems aren't just the crudest mechanical dead ends.

I've said so before:

Open an account whose number you'll tell us in advance at Oanda whose charts show your complete trading transactions, trade it there for a minimum of one quarter, and post screenshots of every single trade with the one hour trigger AND a 1 min trade management chart - it is just up to a dozen a day anyway max - and if that then ends up net profitably I'll be the first to applaud that.

But the only thing that doesn't work at all is your putting up one hour chart after one hour chart after one hour chart that does NOT tell you how price moved INSIDE that one hour bar after entry, against you by your sl of 25 pips FIRST, or did it hit your take profit of 5 pips directly.
No you ARE MISLEADING them by NOT showing what happens INTRABAR.

What you are posting is TOTALLY meaningless BS !
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 4:05pm   #728
 
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Originally Posted by BSD View Post
No you ARE MISLEADING them by NOT showing what happens INTRABAR.

What you are posting is TOTALLY meaningless BS !
Anyone can LOOK and SEE what happened intrabar. It's not that difficult.

You make it sound like I am HIDING SOMETHING!
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 4:12pm   #729
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Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne View Post
Anyone can LOOK and SEE what happened intrabar. It's not that difficult.

You make it sound like I am HIDING SOMETHING!
Yup.

You are showing LOT's of one hour bars as winners when no one can KNOW if they were or were not winners because post facto nobody knows what happened as we don't have the intrabar movement available any more.
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 5:06pm   #730
 
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BSD, didn't I already show you the M1 charts and post the indicators in the other thread.

I SEE WINNERS. What do you SEE?

Why must you continue your rants?
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 5:08pm   #731
 
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Another winner!
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 5:20pm   #732
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Pretty pics with 1 min charts with the 1 hr time frame are definitely an improvement.

No question.

But still at the end of the day the only proof is trading it live for say a quarter.
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 5:24pm   #733
 
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The problem, even with these charts, is that they show the colour of the candle as it was at the end of the hour- but it does not show that the candle may have been a different colour earlier on in the hour- and the losing trades that would have occurred during that time.

As BSD said- a live account showing real trades over a period of time would be great.
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 5:30pm   #734
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Here's today's trade on one of my real accounts.
-25 on first go.
Price hit on of the Horizontal lines going up. I entered long. Price went the opposite direction.

+108 on second.
Waited for price to return to previous entry. Entered trade as price crossed line in long position. Decided to stay in trade longer because :
- The instant I entered trade I was already positive
- Price was making long jumps up

+83 pips in about 15 minutes, done for the day
16% account increase.

Many folks ask me about risk reward ratio. I don't really pay much attention to that. I have set a mental stop at around -20 (sometimes I go as far down as -40pips). In the end, I beleive, the only numbers that can tell you the real "risk reward ratio" are the closed trades. The key is to have good volatility. Before I entered the trade these are the items I looked for:
- H1 average range (for last 200 bars) was greater than 30 pips
- When I entered trade, candles were not forming side by side (in this case since H1 average range was very high I don't this might of mattered). Candles were forming a stair step like pattern.
- GBPJPY spread was < 2.7
- Price was moving very quickly

Once those were ok I just wait for Price to cross a line. I take the trade that is dictated by PRICE as if crosses the plotted line. In this case it was LONG

Click the image to open in full size.[/QUOTE]
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Old Nov 25, 2008, 5:38pm   #735
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Originally Posted by UKtradergirl View Post
The problem, even with these charts, is that they show the colour of the candle as it was at the end of the hour- but it does not show that the candle may have been a different colour earlier on in the hour- and the losing trades that would have occurred during that time.
That's actually an extremely relevant point.

Hadn't even thought of that !
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