Sunspots

rols · Jun 4, 2008

Anybody here use or aware of any trading methods using sunspot data and/or geomagnetism?

SIDC - Solar Influences Data Center

Sunspot index graphics

The daily (yellow), monthly (blue) and monthly smoothed (red) sunspot numbers since 1994, together with predictions for 12 months ahead:
SM (red dots) : classical prediction method, based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves;

CM (red dashes) : combined method (due to K. Denkmayr), a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves.

MrGecko · Jun 4, 2008

Heard about it, thats all. Would you use it to position trade energy?

Ask Grantx

rols · Jun 4, 2008

GammaJammer said:
Would have thought grains etc meself

How about the US Dollar Index?

rols · Jun 4, 2008

Here's today's Sunspot shot.

Zero sunspots today which may indicate a further decline on the dollar perhaps?

I'm long EUR/USD.

MrGecko · Jun 4, 2008

No, I don't agree
Where is the causality?
try commodities...

the temperature
will be a driving factor
of supply for softs

furthermore, I know
the weather does influence
energy demand

the correlation
between sunspots and dollars
is coincidence

unless you believe
sunny days are whats behind
the economy

Crap Buddist · Jun 4, 2008

I like the idea. I've had a rant on sun gods before, still not built my sundial yet! ...... Going slightly off topic, but bonkers the lack of coverage regarding man putting that probe on Mars ! or maybe its another fake like the moon landings !?

)

I thought TV should of been Martian for a weekend or so...

Yah, sunspots can or are the intent of weather systems to hit earth ? so very handy for crops, but I suspect man himself will create some conditions to ramp up supply & demand.. look what happend to rice all of a sudden ,they found tons and tons of it a couple weeks back, under the door mat....

rols · Jun 4, 2008

MrGecko said:
No, I don't agree
Where is the causality?
try commodities...

the temperature
will be a driving factor
of supply for softs

furthermore, I know
the weather does influence
energy demand

the correlation
between sunspots and dollars
is coincidence

unless you believe
sunny days are whats behind
the economy

Extract from the paper

Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market
Anna Krivelyova and Cesare Robotti

Explaining movements in daily stock prices is one of the most difficult tasks in modern
finance. This paper contributes to the existing literature by documenting the impact of
geomagnetic storms on daily stock market returns. A large body of psychological research
has shown that geomagnetic storms have a profound effect on people’s moods, and, in turn,
people’s moods have been found to be related to human behavior, judgments and decisions
about risk. An important finding of this literature is that people often attribute their
feelings and emotions to the wrong source, leading to incorrect judgments. Specifically,
people affected by geomagnetic storms may be more inclined to sell stocks on stormy days
because they incorrectly attribute their bad mood to negative economic prospects rather
than bad environmental conditions. Misattribution of mood and pessimistic choices can
translate into a relatively higher demand for riskless assets, causing the price of risky assets
to fall or to rise less quickly than otherwise. We find strong empirical support in favor
of a geomagnetic–storm effect in stock returns after controlling for market seasonals and
other environmental and behavioral factors. Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity
have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week’s stock
returns for all US stock market indices. Finally, this paper provides evidence of substantially
higher returns around the world during periods of quiet geomagnetic activity.

Geomagnetic storms have been found to have brief but pervasive effects on human
health and have been related to various forms of mood disorders. Geomagnetic
variations have been correlated with enhanced anxiety, sleep disturbances, altered
moods, and greater incidences of psychiatric admissions [Persinger (1987, page 92)].
In a study on GMS and depression, Kay (1994) found that hospital admissions of
predisposed individuals with a diagnosis of depression rose 36.2% during periods of
high geomagnetic activity as compared with normal periods. A phase advance in
the circadian rhythm of melatonin production was found to be the main cause of the
higher depression rates.7 Raps, Stoupel, and Shimshoni (1992) document a significant
0.274 Pearson correlation between monthly numbers of first psychiatric admissions
and sudden magnetic disturbances of the ionosphere. Usenko (1992) finds that, on
heliomagnetic (solar) exposures, pilots with a high level of anxiety operate at a new,
even more intensive homeostatic level8 which is accompanied by a decreased func-tional activity of the central nervous system. The latter leads to a sharp decline in
flying skills. Kuleshova et al. (2001) document a substantial and statistically significant
effect of geomagnetic storms on human health. For example, the average number
of hospitalized patients with mental and cardiovascular diseases during geomagnetic
storms increases approximately two times compared with quiet periods. The frequency
of occurrence of myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, violation of cardial
rhythm, acute violation of brain blood circulation doubles during storms compared
with magnetically quiet periods. Oraevskii et al. (1998) reach similar conclusions
by looking at emergency ambulance statistical data accumulated in Moscow during
March 1983-October 1984. They examine diurnal numbers of urgent hospitalization of
patients in connection with suicides, mental disorders, myocardial infarction, defects
of cerebrum vessels and arterial and venous diseases. Comparison of geomagnetic
and medical data show that at least 75% of geomagnetic storms caused increase in
hospitalization of patients with the above-mentioned diseases by 30-80% on average.
Zakharov and Tyrnov (2001) document an adverse effect of solar activity not only
on sick but also on healthy people: “It is commonly agreed that solar activity has
adverse effects first of all on enfeebled and ill organisms. In our study we have traced
that under conditions of nervous and emotional stresses (at work, in the street, and
in cars) the effect may be larger for healthy people. The effect is most marked during
the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms and accompanied by the inhibition of the
central nervous system”. Using a sample of healthy people, Stoilova and Zdravev
(2000) and Shumilov, Kasatkina, and Raspopov (1998) reach similar conclusions.
Tarquini, Perfetto, and Tarquini (1998) analyze the relationship between geomagnetic
activity, melatonin and seasonal depression. Specifically, geomagnetic storms,
by influencing the activity of the pineal gland, cause imbalances and disruptions of
the circadian rhythm of melatonin production, a factor that plays an important role
in mood disturbances.

grantx · Jun 4, 2008

Mr Gecko,

"Ask Grantx". Should I take that as an acknowledgement of knowledge and wisdom, or do you regard me a saddo susceptible to bullsh1t and pseudo-science? And if you say the first when you actually mean the second, how will I know?

You are very cunning, Mr Gecko.

Grant.

MrGecko · Jun 4, 2008

grantx said:
Mr Gecko,

"Ask Grantx". Should I take that as an acknowledgement of knowledge and wisdom, or do you regard me a saddo susceptible to bullsh1t and pseudo-science? And if you say the first when you actually mean the second, how will I know?

You are very cunning, Mr Gecko.

Grant.

On the contrary!
a susceptible saddo,
clearly you are not.

"Sun spots can provide
all that's necessary to
trade the chaff-crack spread" ??!!

This paper's authors'
particular orifice
he's talking out of.

If he makes this work,
sun-spots would be glimmering
brightly from his ar$e

Given the gesture

thumbsup

a mind of your calibre
should join up the dots

grantx · Jun 5, 2008

Mr Gecko,

Even the most die-hard chaff-crack spreader does not look at sun spots - a line has to be drawn at some point.

That gesture is open to interpretation and possibly (self) abuse.

Attached is the full paper if you're interested. Published in 2003 - speaks volumes I suppose. I haven't read it yet but I suspect it's one those "Have I just wasted precious time reading that garbage?" kind of papers.

Grant.

MrGecko · Jun 5, 2008

Thanks Grant...

I've given it a flick through, it was all making sense until they forgot to publish the results!!

I will hunt around on JSTOR or Athens over the weekend and see if it ever made it into a journal. Unless anybody knows if / when it was published? We only have a working paper so far...

rols · Jun 5, 2008

Today's Sun

All clear again.....

rols · Jun 5, 2008

GammaJammer said:
Would have thought grains etc meself

Apparently not.
CXOAG Investing Notes – Does the Sunspot Cycle Predict Energy and Grain Prices?

grantx · Jun 5, 2008

For newbies looking at these posts.

Sun spot quotes and activity reports from eg Reuters, bloomberg are expensive. Save money and make your own observations via telescopes or binoculars and look directly into the sun. Encourage your children to do observations for you - a good introduction to investments at an early age.

GJ,

You could extend to 'Die Hard Chav Chaff-Crack Spreader, Crack Dealer'

Grant.

rols · Jun 5, 2008

grantx said:
For newbies looking at these posts.

...make your own observations via telescopes or binoculars and look directly into the sun. Encourage your children to do observations for you ...

Calling all ambulance chasers and lawyers.......
....could be expensive mate:cheesy:

rols · Jun 5, 2008

Yes my Sun!

rols said:
Here's today's Sunspot shot.

Zero sunspots today which may indicate a further decline on the dollar perhaps?

I'm long EUR/USD.

Ye of little faith....

JTrader · Jun 5, 2008

No i don't look at sunspot data.
I prefer to look at S/R and trend.
But if it works for you, that is to be commended.
Perhaps if you added the lunar cycles, you'd be able to improve performance further.

grantx · Jun 5, 2008

GJ,

That's Ok but avoid kiosks near the House of Lords - "crack spreader" and "the Upper House" could open a can of worms. Apologies to any US readers who don't understand this but unfortunately you are not British.

Grant.

rols · Jun 6, 2008

Emerging Spot!!

Today's Sun clearly reveals 'an emerging spot in the Southern hemisphere'.
This may translate into a stronger dollar and pullback on EUR.

Therefore looking to buy USD.

MrGecko · Jun 6, 2008

60 - 3
Chaff-Crack spread varieties
It's written, you see!

Sunspots

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