Easiest strategy

teezeike · Feb 5, 2008

Hi All,

ALL tech indicators are lagging ones. They cannot be relied on to show you the future! But they can be combined for a wonderful performance.

This way for Day Trading only:

1. SENTIMENT
a. Get Market sentiment ....Bloomberg, S&P Futures+Fair value,..maybe...oil and gold sentiments.
b. You may allow the market to open to prove your analysis.

c. You may also use SMA/20/50 5min to see

c. Sentiment qualified as positive, negetive, neatral

1. ENTER
a. If sentiment positive then LONG on technical bearish signal.
b. If sentiment negative then SHORT on technical bullish signal.
c. If sentiment neatral then stay out in cash !

2. EXIT
The reverse above.

C. Comment
1. Technical signal can be derived from any of the indicators like MACD...Bollinger...
2. Never Trade against Sentiment in any session.
3. Sentiment can change intraday...but you need to watch out...but happens seldomly
4. Use and enforce stop loss to make protect yourself

Hope this helps

Teddy

theroguetrader · Feb 5, 2008

easiest strategy -

T R A D E W I T H T H E T R E N D ........... !!
(and run tight stops)

MOST indicators DONT work in PRACTICE - (anyone that says otherwise is an academic and doesnt trade for a living) -

there is a WHOLE INDUSTRY making HUGE amounts of money from making it all sound HARDER than it actually IS............ !!

F A C T .......... !!

yacarob1 · Feb 5, 2008

Hope this helps

Teddy

Like a hole in the head :clap:

teezeike · Feb 5, 2008

theroguetrader said:
easiest strategy -

T R A D E W I T H T H E T R E N D ........... !!
(and run tight stops)

MOST indicators DONT work in PRACTICE - (anyone that says otherwise is an academic and doesnt trade for a living) -

there is a WHOLE INDUSTRY making HUGE amounts of money from making it all sound HARDER than it actually IS............ !!

F A C T .......... !!

Correct.

No indicator can show what happens in the future. But can give an idea of what will happend in the short term..from seconds..till days.

Never Move against market sentiment that drives Trend. Technically take advantage of the trend by selling/buying when others are buying/selling.
The secret of technical analysis.

theroguetrader · Feb 6, 2008

teezeike said:
Correct.

No indicator can show what happens in the future. But can give an idea of what will happend in the short term..from seconds..till days.

Never Move against market sentiment that drives Trend. Technically take advantage of the trend by selling/buying when others are buying/selling.
The secret of technical analysis.

doncha just luv technical analysis - makes fundamentals look so 20th century

- (works for WB tho, so who am i to argue) -

Trader333 · Feb 6, 2008

MOST indicators DONT work in PRACTICE - (anyone that says otherwise is an academic and doesnt trade for a living) -

I guess you have not visited the Technical Trader Forum of this site based on this comment ?

Paul

JTrader · Feb 6, 2008

1. ENTER
a. If sentiment positive then LONG on technical bearish signal.
b. If sentiment negative then SHORT on technical bullish signal.
c. If sentiment neatral then stay out in cash !

Are you having a laugh?

fibonelli · Feb 6, 2008

Easiest strategy to the poor house more like

On Sunday I posted up a chart of Gold on my "Gold Silver & Crude Oil" thread showing an outside day bar reversal at the top of a rising channel together with bearish divergence of price versus an indicator!! Gold has fallen for two successive days.

I also posted a chart of EUR/USD on this week's (ie 4 feb) FX thread showing a potential triple top chart pattern together with bearish divergence. EUR has also fallen for two successive days.

These two examples clearly support the view that certain indicators can be forward looking rather than lagging.

The value of an indicator is whether it can show certain price attributes that can't be seen clearly with the naked eye.

teezeike · Feb 6, 2008

JTrader said:
Are you having a laugh?

Certianly not !

If on the positive sentiment day...you get a bearish signal from your indicator, then you must LONG. When indeed you get a bullish signal..thats when you will take profit and wait for another bearish signal. Reverse this on a negative day. The signals must be strong enough though.

Example...study yesterdays E-mini S&P with Bollinger and you can see. Got 87pips but the market overall was 44pips

Teddy

JTrader · Feb 6, 2008

teezeike said:
Certianly not !

If on the positive sentiment day...you get a bearish signal from your indicator, then you must LONG. When indeed you get a bullish signal..thats when you will take profit and wait for another bearish signal. Reverse this on a negative day. The signals must be strong enough though.

Example...study yesterdays E-mini S&P with Bollinger and you can see. Got 87pips but the market overall was 44pips

Teddy

My apologies then.
Perhaps i read it wrong. To me, it sounded like you were saying - watch bloomberg TV, assess whether the reporter thinks the market will go up or down, and then when your indicator gives a short signal (overbought) go long, and when it gives a long signal (oversold) go short. I thought you were being sarcastic about the value of indicators.

teezeike · Feb 6, 2008

JTrader said:
My apologies then.
Perhaps i read it wrong. To me, it sounded like you were saying - watch bloomberg TV, assess whether the reporter thinks the market will go up or down, and then when your indicator gives a short signal (overbought) go long, and when it gives a long signal (oversold) go short. I thought you were being sarcastic about the value of indicators.

I see.

The Boomberg reporter is only emphasising what you already know. Typical high sentiment day...high level M&A, Surprise positive data numbers, strong earning by BIG coys, these days big analyst upgrades of financial/home coys, strong comments by Fed Govs. Negative days reversals of above. Can be re-enforced with recent major rally/sellof. Neatral days...no market driving news. Eg yesterday very bad data number. Today...neatral yet. Data today ok but not influential..only mitigated continued sellof of yesterday. Oil reserve high as well but oil coys will get beating...so contributing to overall index. Cisco and Apple will report today...will slightly increase sentiment towards close but will likely influence tommorrow either way.

4.21pm GMT..Sentiment slightly changing up...Ealier data, yesterdays selloff, Goldman positive view of equity index, M&A on Rio and Rumour on SG Bank and as time go on high expectation on CISCO

Rgds

bluetipex · Feb 6, 2008

Am I missing something?

I never ever listen to Bloomberg, or any market commentary of any kind, ever. I have absolutely no interest in anyone's opinion on the market. I begin each day with an open mind and simply trade what I see.

You may all think I'm a bit mad but I am of the opinion that "they" (the pros) know in advance where they want to take the market. At the end of the day they attribute the day's movement to some news item or other. For example, I see that they've attributed today's down move to the move in oil.

But to be honest, I couldn't care less WHY the market went down, it just did. Any good trader would've seen this and traded WITH the trend accordingly.

Everyday some news item or other pops up on my screen at the allotted time. I always just press "ok" to make it disappear without even reading it, as I don't care. All I'm interested in is the effect (if any) it has on the market. All I do is check my economic calendar every day and make sure I'm flat whenever there's a news release. If I get a signal afterwards I take it, if not I stand aside. Simple.

Occassionally my lagging indicators are all pointing a certain way BEFORE the news release, and if this is the case I reduce my size significantly and take the trade just before the news. But this is not often.

The main thing is I make sure my judgement is never clouded by anyone else's opinion.

tomorton · Feb 6, 2008

teezeike - I'm willing to admit I've been doing this all wrong up to now but you're going to have to prove you are entering and managing profitable positions. Why not share your trades as well as your opinions?

For my own part, I am short the FTSE since 05/02 when price broke through the low of 04/02 and resumed its primary downtrend. I took some profits today and have entered a further sell order below today's close in view of the bearish candlestick formation and the weak US late session and low close. Clearly I expect a fall in the FTSE (also Dow, S&P, whatever) and would not be disapppointed to see a 10% drop in values across the major Western indices from here.

Best wishes

theroguetrader · Feb 6, 2008

bluetipex said:
I never ever listen to Bloomberg, or any market commentary of any kind, ever. I have absolutely no interest in anyone's opinion on the market. I begin each day with an open mind and simply trade what I see.

You may all think I'm a bit mad but I am of the opinion that "they" (the pros) know in advance where they want to take the market. At the end of the day they attribute the day's movement to some news item or other. For example, I see that they've attributed today's down move to the move in oil.

But to be honest, I couldn't care less WHY the market went down, it just did. Any good trader would've seen this and traded WITH the trend accordingly.

Everyday some news item or other pops up on my screen at the allotted time. I always just press "ok" to make it disappear without even reading it, as I don't care. All I'm interested in is the effect (if any) it has on the market. All I do is check my economic calendar every day and make sure I'm flat whenever there's a news release. If I get a signal afterwards I take it, if not I stand aside. Simple.

Occassionally my lagging indicators are all pointing a certain way BEFORE the news release, and if this is the case I reduce my size significantly and take the trade just before the news. But this is not often.

The main thing is I make sure my judgement is never clouded by anyone else's opinion.

Bloomberg is RUBBISH - might as well be watching Eastenders ... !!

Most of the time, the charts have already discounted the news, they dont follow each other -
PRICE will always tell you whats happening...!!

2, 4, 6, 8 - (uptrend)
8, 6 ,4, 2 - (downtrend)

teezeike · Feb 7, 2008

bluetipex said:
I never ever listen to Bloomberg, or any market commentary of any kind, ever. I have absolutely no interest in anyone's opinion on the market. I begin each day with an open mind and simply trade what I see.

You may all think I'm a bit mad but I am of the opinion that "they" (the pros) know in advance where they want to take the market. At the end of the day they attribute the day's movement to some news item or other. For example, I see that they've attributed today's down move to the move in oil.

But to be honest, I couldn't care less WHY the market went down, it just did. Any good trader would've seen this and traded WITH the trend accordingly.

Everyday some news item or other pops up on my screen at the allotted time. I always just press "ok" to make it disappear without even reading it, as I don't care. All I'm interested in is the effect (if any) it has on the market. All I do is check my economic calendar every day and make sure I'm flat whenever there's a news release. If I get a signal afterwards I take it, if not I stand aside. Simple.

Occassionally my lagging indicators are all pointing a certain way BEFORE the news release, and if this is the case I reduce my size significantly and take the trade just before the news. But this is not often.

The main thing is I make sure my judgement is never clouded by anyone else's opinion.

You are not wrong about commentary.

Though sometimes you may gain insight the current market and help build your confidence.

Sure..yesterdays selloff was not entirely OIL..but a comment by Fed Gov. that US might have a mild recession. For today...CISCO Chambers outlook is going to rattle the market..but again the BoE meeting too from mid-day.

teezeike · Feb 7, 2008

theroguetrader said:
Bloomberg is RUBBISH - might as well be watching Eastenders ... !!

Most of the time, the charts have already discounted the news, they dont follow each other -
PRICE will always tell you whats happening...!!

2, 4, 6, 8 - (uptrend)
8, 6 ,4, 2 - (downtrend)

[/QUOT

Today's sentiment is gonna be extremely bearish...unless an aggressive move by BoE..but that will be from 12pm

teezeike · Feb 7, 2008

tomorton said:
teezeike - I'm willing to admit I've been doing this all wrong up to now but you're going to have to prove you are entering and managing profitable positions. Why not share your trades as well as your opinions?

For my own part, I am short the FTSE since 05/02 when price broke through the low of 04/02 and resumed its primary downtrend. I took some profits today and have entered a further sell order below today's close in view of the bearish candlestick formation and the weak US late session and low close. Clearly I expect a fall in the FTSE (also Dow, S&P, whatever) and would not be disapppointed to see a 10% drop in values across the major Western indices from here.

Best wishes

I never leave any positions over-night. In today's market you never can determine what happens. Bear in mind that market has be on downtrend for sometime now. Any fantastic news can ignite a powerful. If ECB cuts rate..or Buffet invests in any Financial/Housing..things like. Loads of Money managers that invest long term are running huge losses as at the moment and they are keen to drive the market at the shortest opportunity to at least even out their positions. They try to cover by commenting on cetain stocks and/or markets after taking positions and then make huge profits.

tomorton · Feb 7, 2008

hi teezeike -
Its when market is in strong trend that I do feel secure to leave positions open overnight, though always awith a stop to protect my overall finances of course.

JTrader · Feb 7, 2008

teezeike said:
I see.

The Boomberg reporter is only emphasising what you already know. Typical high sentiment day...high level M&A, Surprise positive data numbers, strong earning by BIG coys, these days big analyst upgrades of financial/home coys, strong comments by Fed Govs. Negative days reversals of above. Can be re-enforced with recent major rally/sellof. Neatral days...no market driving news. Eg yesterday very bad data number. Today...neatral yet. Data today ok but not influential..only mitigated continued sellof of yesterday. Oil reserve high as well but oil coys will get beating...so contributing to overall index. Cisco and Apple will report today...will slightly increase sentiment towards close but will likely influence tommorrow either way.

4.21pm GMT..Sentiment slightly changing up...Ealier data, yesterdays selloff, Goldman positive view of equity index, M&A on Rio and Rumour on SG Bank and as time go on high expectation on CISCO

Rgds

Oh, so i was (at least partly) right then.

teezeike · Feb 7, 2008

tomorton said:
hi teezeike -
Its when market is in strong trend that I do feel secure to leave positions open overnight, though always awith a stop to protect my overall finances of course.

When can we be sure of tommorrow. Stop loss can only protect indexes/forex until friday close. For stocks...cannot protect overnight unless you go G.stop loss with premium.

Tip Today: Market is weak. Sell rally. Take profit in dip. With RSI/14 Sell on overbought. Take profit on Oversold. Wait patiently for another ovebought!

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