Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

This is a discussion on Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader within the Discretionary Trading forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by forker My comparison Tar was that a casino only offers games where they have an edge over ...

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Old Aug 29, 2015, 8:25am   #54796
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Originally Posted by forker View Post
My comparison Tar was that a casino only offers games where they have an edge over time. I was not referring to spreads and doing so really makes the comparison illegitimate. The basis of casinos is their edge over time. The basis of traders is an edge over time. Spreads are just the cost of doing business and factored into the plan. Your argument is weak
And their edge is in the spread the zero same with the grocery store . You cant compare a punter with the house sorry , maybe you can compare a forex trader with a profitable gambler or poker player ...
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 8:30am   #54797
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Originally Posted by tar View Post
And their edge is in the spread the zero same with the grocery store . You cant compare a punter with the house sorry , maybe you can compare a forex trader with a profitable gambler or poker player ...
I'm not going to fall into the trap of beating on the same stick over and over only for the result to remain the same. Last time I played poker or a slot machine there wasn't such a thing as a spread. Maybe I'm going to the wrong casinos or perhaps your just too arrogant to see the wood from the trees. In any case please explain to me the spread a slot machine has as being the advantage as I am keenly interested to understand this
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 8:37am   #54798
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"What Is the House Edge

The entity that sets the rules and controls the play of any gambling game is known as the “House.” The House earns money by having a winning advantage known as the “House Edge” built into every game. This edge applies to Blackjack, Craps, Slots and Keno, as well as sports betting, where the advantage is sometimes referred to as “vigorish,” “vig” or “juice.” A high House Edge means players have less likelihood of winning. A low margin means the players have better odds.

For all practical purposes, the House Edge for any game or group of games can be defined as “the ratio of all money lost by players to the total money they wagered.” Some prefer to think of it statistically as “the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet.” In either case, the resulting percentages are about the same. They provide not only a useful way of comparing one game to another but also of evaluating one set of rules versus another in the analysis of a single game.

Because the House Edge is a function of the “House Rules” by which the games are played, it may differ from location to location. In Native American casinos, for example, the rules are usually set up for a relatively high edge on most games. Downtown Las Vegas casinos consistently offer a somewhat lower House Edge than their resort counterparts based on the Las Vegas Strip." quoted from bet blind. I hate to throw in material created by others but I just wanted to clarify that the edge in casinos is not based on spread.
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 8:38am   #54799
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And that's me done for this discussion. I'm not going to respond to any more remarks.
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 8:44am   #54800
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Originally Posted by forker View Post
I'm not going to fall into the trap of beating on the same stick over and over only for the result to remain the same. Last time I played poker or a slot machine there wasn't such a thing as a spread. Maybe I'm going to the wrong casinos or perhaps your just too arrogant to see the wood from the trees. In any case please explain to me the spread a slot machine has as being the advantage as I am keenly interested to understand this
First of all there is a spread hidden in the odds of these slots , and i wasn't talking about poker . Second the comparison itself is flawed from different angles :

1- The casino is the house and earns the spread .
2- The casino doesn't rely on a certain slot anyway or the slots - although there is a spread built in them - .
3- The casino plays huge volume every day you cant compare a retail fx trader with a casino , maybe with IGindex yes ..
4- Casinos also sell leisure and entertainment .
5-The edge is built in , manufactured in these slots , you cant say the same about the fx trader .
6- Is there a proof that casinos don't have losing days ?


Same goes with the grocery store .
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 9:06am   #54801
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Originally Posted by forker View Post
Plenty. Every casino in the world uses the same technique to make money every day. I personally don't do that but I don't take 20 trades a day. I might take 4 at most.

Regarding your comment on data compiled by forex brokers. I have seen it and frankly don't think much of it. As a data expert myself who freelances to investment banks and hedge funds, I know the difference between a management report and an investigatory report. The first is only useful for high level review where you would make a decision as to what sort of business model would work. The second would be far more detailed where you would be able to track individual traders. You cannot make any judgment on any individual trader using a high level report so how can you state the data proves nobody does what F says? You can't. So unless you have tangible data for a reputable broker (one that would attract pro traders), you really don't have any evidence at all.


You know plenty of traders who haven't had negative day in 3 years and who've actually traded. NO YOU DON'T. THERE ISN'T ONE, IN ANY CAPACITY.


Human beings talk, word of mouth, not official data. What the posters on this thread are suggesting would make a trader stand out like a sore thumb, I would know about them and everyone I know would know about them. You'll just have to trust me on that one.

I will also leave this thread along with you Forker, in fact the forum. One week was enough.

All the best to you.
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 9:07am   #54802
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Originally Posted by NVP View Post
There are thousands of scratch golfers in the world right ?.......that's even before,you talk about the top echelon of pro,s

Now Put them on their favourite course and allow them to pick when they tee off and also allow them not to play on days if they feel conditions are poor or indeed if they don't feel 100% ok......hey throw in big bucks for low scores as well

Now tell me what's the worse score such guys will come in with over x years of playing .......I can assure you it won't be that excessive

So why think a good scalper can't make money everyday based on Many years of experience and the right tools ?

All they have to do is break even......for a good scalper even a string of losses will only put you back say 20-30 pips.....that's a disaster in their books......just a few winners and one good run even in reduced stakes takes a big chunk back in minutes.....and remember most scalpers are hammering a lot of trades a day ....hundreds for some if needed

I have scalped up to 300 times a day in the past......that's more than some people trade in a month .......I'm not in f's league but I do know that sample,size is the X factor in scalping .........like a casino .......the larger the sample size the higher the probability becomes regarding the edge and the outcome

If a top golfer was told they have to hit one shot only onto the green per day then that's a problem re sample size ......allow them 18 holes and 70 odd shots to make the grade and the odds are exponentially increased they will deliver day in day out

N
In particular order:

300 trades in day? So assuming it's fiber you're trading and at the average MM fx'er. 300*0.8 (spread+comm) = 240pips just to break even. Hmmmm, in any one day you might make a profit, obviously not going to work though.



Notice the colour I chose below.

Basketball, golf!!
Having been a top 10 national competitor in my chosen sport, I understand how many hours and the sacrifices you have to make to make it to the top. Move the hoop around the court in a seemingly random pattern and while you're at it move that little hole around the green too. That makes your comparisons much more realistic. The same sportsmen can be at the top for years, scalpers don't last that long at the top, their performance varies, wildly at times. FACT

Just read a few more replies on this thread, delusional, tragic.


Submitted the wrong post first.

Hope some of you get a grip on reality before the markets get a grip of you, it really isn't a game. The amounts you can lose if the market gaps against you when scalping can leave you with a mountain of debt if you're leveraged too high.

All the best to you all.

Last edited by KurtKrakkav; Aug 29, 2015 at 9:16am.
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 9:26am   #54803
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KurtKrakkav View Post
Hope some of you get a grip on reality before the markets get a grip of you, it really isn't a game. The amounts you can lose if the market gaps against you when scalping can leave you with a mountain of debt if you're leveraged too high.

All the best to you all.
Agree , lets not forget what the Swiss central bank did earlier this year , so if you were scalping any of the CHF crosses you would have been done for years to come if not forever .

I want to add here , based on a phd study only 1/360 made it daytrading US stocks for more than a year . And based on a study made by a member here in this forum from data collected from brokers all around the world around 0.5-0.7 % was profitable for +4 consecutive quarters trading forex . Now based on these numbers make your own conclusions and calculate what are the odds for someone to be profitable every day for years ! Such possibility should be ignored . As i said many times you don't need to do that to make money anyway .
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 9:26am   #54804
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Originally Posted by Forexmospherian View Post
LOL

Morning N

Only 82 copies now - 7 "dissers" have put their orders in now - but hope you dont mind N - as you being our accountant - I have told them because I want to help them and because they are "special" I will let them have 2 copies each at a "special one off price" of not $398 - not $325 - not $299 .................. but .............. just 6 easy payments of ONLY - $99 - and yes spread over 7 days

Cannot be fairer than that

maybe I am being tooo generous - but thats always been one of my failures - trying to help the "good guys"........



F

jees F ..........you are going to bankrupt us here ....

we will need to now introduce MLM techniques and incorporate affiliate sellers

this is not going as well as I would have hoped

haha

jees - I remember a guy called Jason fielder got 4,000 people on a webinar once trying to flog them his Correlation code Cr*p......true or not I could see the participant people online and you have to say at around $1k a pop he certainly would have moved some crapola that day and made his accountant happy

N
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 9:28am   #54805
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And that's me done for this discussion. I'm not going to respond to any more remarks.
they'll keep coming at you dude ...........trust me they are never wrong
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 9:30am   #54806
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Originally Posted by KurtKrakkav View Post
[/COLOR]

You know plenty of traders who haven't had negative day in 3 years and who've actually traded. NO YOU DON'T. THERE ISN'T ONE, IN ANY CAPACITY.


Human beings talk, word of mouth, not official data. What the posters on this thread are suggesting would make a trader stand out like a sore thumb, I would know about them and everyone I know would know about them. You'll just have to trust me on that one.

I will also leave this thread along with you Forker, in fact the forum. One week was enough.

All the best to you.

well at least you are leaving the thread ........we have a lot of dissers who have claimed squatting rights here

N
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 9:32am   #54807
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Originally Posted by tar View Post
The comparison between Forex scalpers and the casinos - the house - is flawed , the house earns the spread , the scalper/punter pays it its a flawed comparison . You can compare casinos with brokers , and scalpers with punters and gamblers . And i've never seen anyone consistently making money in casinos let alone not having a losing day . Not to mention there is no proof grocery stores and casinos don't have losing days anyway .

Based on empirical evidence some daytraders made money , so it can be done and one can be profitable but not everyday ! And you dont need to be profitable everyday to make money anyway .

Most importantly one should prove first that he is profitable before proving not having a losing day , so guys who are touting such stuff are we going to see proof from them ?

Waiting ...

tar - how many trades do you take a day ?
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 9:34am   #54808
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KurtKrakkav View Post
In particular order:

300 trades in day? So assuming it's fiber you're trading and at the average MM fx'er. 300*0.8 (spread+comm) = 240pips just to break even. Hmmmm, in any one day you might make a profit, obviously not going to work though.



Notice the colour I chose below.

Basketball, golf!!
Having been a top 10 national competitor in my chosen sport, I understand how many hours and the sacrifices you have to make to make it to the top. Move the hoop around the court in a seemingly random pattern and while you're at it move that little hole around the green too. That makes your comparisons much more realistic. The same sportsmen can be at the top for years, scalpers don't last that long at the top, their performance varies, wildly at times. FACT

Just read a few more replies on this thread, delusional, tragic.


Submitted the wrong post first.

Hope some of you get a grip on reality before the markets get a grip of you, it really isn't a game. The amounts you can lose if the market gaps against you when scalping can leave you with a mountain of debt if you're leveraged too high.

All the best to you all.

cheers K ..........lets agree to differ on these points .........and speaking as someone who also competed with the national elite in my chosen sport I agree with you re the years of dedication and commitment required .......just like trading

N

Last edited by NVP; Aug 29, 2015 at 9:46am.
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 9:40am   #54809
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they'll keep coming at you dude ...........trust me they are never wrong
It doesn't bother me and I actually feel sorry for them. Some people are stubborn and we all know how that blindsides information.
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Old Aug 29, 2015, 9:47am   #54810
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KurtKrakkav View Post
Hope some of you get a grip on reality before the markets get a grip of you, it really isn't a game. The amounts you can lose if the market gaps against you when scalping can leave you with a mountain of debt if you're leveraged too high.
All the best to you all.
One of the most pertinent ,intelligent posts i have ever read about scalping.
you should be begging this guy to stay on this thread.I know nothing about fx but i know enough to state that you need to get them stops in very quick in case of GAPS.
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i'm lying for the attention
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reloading another "K" next week.
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you don't really have an orange juice position do you?
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