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Old Jun 23, 2009, 4:06pm   #17
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NEWS FLASH! : Valuable New Addition To The Research Center!!

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Old Jul 14, 2009, 4:40pm   #18
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Goldman sachs has strong resistance at 153.00

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Old Jul 14, 2009, 4:46pm   #19
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Using The Large Time Frames To Capture Massive Profits

InTheMoneyStocks started this thread As I write this article on time frames, I wish to speak a little bit about my experience as a trader. Throughout the years, I have made my fair share of mistakes. Those of you that trade/invest in the markets know it is just part of the game. It is a trial and error type career, like kids, we must touch the hot stove/oven, even when our parents told us not to. Once touched, we pray we learn our lesson and never do it again. I was no different as I began to learn how to trade. I would try something, find out what works, what does not. As I began to utilize the technicals of price, pattern and time I began to throw away the other technical indicators that were always talked about. For instance, stochastics, MACD, RSI and more. These I tried to use in my first years as a trader but my winning percentage was never more than 60%. Of course due to my discipline at the time, the losers would often outweigh the winners by 2-3x and we all know that math will not work. Over time, I learned to make sure I cut my losses, and as I learned a new breed of technicals, I began to let my winners max out on profits. One of the biggest things I learned was to trust price, pattern and time. Today I wish to speak a little bit about time and how important it can be in one respect.

As part of one of the fastest growing financial guidance and education firms out there, one of the biggest lessons we wish to express, is to use the Larger Time Frame Method. This method is exactly how my partners and I at InTheMoneyStocks.com were able to pinpoint within a week or two the top on the market recently. The SPY (a good gauge of the S&P 500) was trading for 2-3 weeks between $94-$96. During this time, President Obama, Treasury Secretary Geithner and the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke all stated multiple times that green shoots were sprouting. The media was singing their praises, mutual funds and hedge funds were dumping hundreds of billions back into the market and a V-shaped bottom seemed to be in place. At heart we are contrarian thinkers and use psychology as part of our analysis techniques. Seeing this pumping in the media put us on high alert. We started looking at the daily SPY chart. Sure, it looked over bought but let's face it, a chart of anything can remain that way for days, weeks, months or even years. After analyzing the daily and seeing mixed signals and signs, we decided to do something most investors or traders lack the common sense to do. I went to the next bigger time frame. This is where we made an amazing discovery.

This is one of the secrets which may seem like common sense but for some reason so few people are willing to do it. Whenever you find it hard to read a chart but feel something is overbought or oversold on a certain chart or when people seem far too bullish or bearish, always go to the next bigger time frame. If you are right on the move coming, it should be showing and confirm on that time frame. The chart below shows a great example of the confusion that was in the markets. The daily chart shows the markets off the March lows by 40%. However, at the same time a great bullish consolidation pattern is forming which many beginner/amateur traders were thinking meant the markets were going to go higher.

What did we do? We first got worried based off the psychological indicators. With the President, Federal Reserve and Treasury all pumping the markets, the media blasted it to everyone. That was what worried us. Too many bullish people. With that we looked at the daily chart below.
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After analyzing the daily chart, it was not clear if we were right to suspect a drop coming in the markets off the SPY $94-$96 level. At that point we went to the next biggest time frame, the weekly. We grinned with excitement after going over the weekly chart. Not only was the 50ma coming into play as major resistance but we discovered two major trend lines, one which started back in early 2007 and the other from mid 2008. Both lines crossed the current price on the SPY at $96. This was a major find and began to reassure us that a fall back down was on the horizon. See the chart below.
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After isolating all 3 major resistance levels, which the current markets were hammering against, we began to put all the pieces of the puzzle together. Society was far too bullish, the markets were 40% off their recent lows and the weekly chart was showing hardcore signs of a major pullback. Before we really wanted to short this market and make the call to our premium subscribers, we decided to confirm even more by going to the monthly chart (the next bigger time frame). If we were right on this drop, that should confirm the weekly.

We looked over the monthly chart. All of a sudden, that same smile crept to our lips. A major resistance level had just been tagged at $96 on the SPY on the monthly chart dating all the way back to late 2002. It just so happened to be the pivot high of a W bottom. That high in December of 2002 was at $96.05. The high on the SPY in 2009 in June was $96.11. This confirmed our view that the markets should see a sizable drop. See the chart below.
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Insane amounts of resistance were being hit on the markets. While those that just focused on the daily chart and listened to the media and our President, Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman would have been fooled, those that took the time to analyze the bigger time frames could have nailed this pullback from $96 on the SPY to the recent low at $87. We encourage all of you to start doing this. Confirm yourself on any chart by looking at the bigger time frames. The money tree is available, the question is, will you find a way to reach the branches.

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Old Jul 21, 2009, 7:18pm   #20
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Cycles, Do They Repeat Or Rhyme?

InTheMoneyStocks started this thread Cycles have been repeating from the beginning of time. The use of our clock is a cycle. There are sixty seconds in a minute, sixty minutes in an hour, two twelve hour cycles or twenty four hours in a day. The ancients used the moon cycle which is a twenty nine day cycle. The four seasons are a cycle of roughly ninety days for each cycle or season. Cycles are endless and the ancients seem to have been most fascinated with time and cycles of time. This was their clock. The ancient Egyptians, Mayans, Greeks and countless other civilizations based everything that they did on cycles to keep track of time. They used the cycles for the planting of food, harvesting, and even reproduction. Since we know cycles repeat, do they effect the markets, or even sports? Perhaps they do.


Lets first examine the 17 year cycle (cicada cycle). In 1991, the United States of America was in a recession. The recession occurred after a long bull market run that started in 1982 and lasted 7 years until 1989. The president at the time was George H.W. Bush. The United States had just entered a Gulf War which was against Iraq. The NFL New York Giants football team won the Super bowl against the Buffalo Bills that were located in the north east part of the United States. 17 years later in 2008 the President is George W. Bush, the United States is fighting another war in the Gulf against Iraq. The NFL New York Giants win the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots(NE Patriots are located in the north east of the United States). Perhaps this is just a coincidence or maybe there is something more to the cycles.


In 1907 the stock market had a one year crash that was very similar to what we are seeing today. Please note that this is 100 years. The stock market peaked in October of 2007. We have now approached the one year anniversary from that 2007 high. In 1907 and 1908 the Chicago Cubs baseball team made the playoffs in consecutive years. The Chicago Cubs repeated that feat in 2007 and 2008 by making the playoffs in consecutive years, exactly 100 years later. The irony of the story is that a cub is is a baby bear. This market is a bear market. In 1907 it was JP Morgan who came to the rescue and in 2008, exactly 100 years later it is JP Morgan Chase who is again coming to the rescue.


The Mayan civilization used a very advanced calender and cycle system. As most of us now know the 2012 cycle is when all the Mayan cycles converge. This event signals the end of an age and a beginning of the next age. However, there is one cycle that stands out to me. It is called the 'Mayan long count'. This is a 52 year cycle that ends naturally in December 2012 with the rest of the Mayan cycles. If we subtract 52 years from 2012 we get 1960. This was a pivotal time in the U.S. If we subtract 104 (2*52) from 2012 we get 1908. As we all know this bear market is very similar to the 1907 stock market crash which ended in 1908. You can draw your own conclusions.


The last cycle that I will examine is the 10 year cycle. Ten is known as a perfect number, hence perfect 10. Therefore, I personally watch the 10 year cycle and multiples of ten. In the year 2000, major stock indexes began a new bear market. 2010 will be the 10 year anniversary from the 2000 bear market. The market also sold off in 1910 and 1911. This is also 100 years from 2010. Many times market tops are formed in the ninth, zero, and one years of decades. For example 1929, 1910, 1920, 1980, 1990, and 2000 just to name a few.


Whats the conclusion? This is a severe bear market without question. Short term traders appear to be the only people benefiting from the volatile market. This type of environment should last for several years to come. If you are going to invest or trade it is imperative to know and understand the mechanics of the market and not the Wall Street Hype.


Source: Nicholas Santiago,
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Old Jul 21, 2009, 9:00pm   #21
Joined Jan 2009
Cycles, Do They Repeat Or Rhyme?

InTheMoneyStocks started this thread Cycles have been repeating from the beginning of time. The use of our clock is a cycle. There are sixty seconds in a minute, sixty minutes in an hour, two twelve hour cycles or twenty four hours in a day. The ancients used the moon cycle which is a twenty nine day cycle. The four seasons are a cycle of roughly ninety days for each cycle or season. Cycles are endless and the ancients seem to have been most fascinated with time and cycles of time. This was their clock. The ancient Egyptians, Mayans, Greeks and countless other civilizations based everything that they did on cycles to keep track of time. They used the cycles for the planting of food, harvesting, and even reproduction. Since we know cycles repeat, do they effect the markets, or even sports? Perhaps they do.

Lets first examine the 17 year cycle (cicada cycle). In 1991, the United States of America was in a recession. The recession occurred after a long bull market run that started in 1982 and lasted 7 years until 1989. The president at the time was George H.W. Bush. The United States had just entered a Gulf War which was against Iraq. The NFL New York Giants football team won the Super bowl against the Buffalo Bills that were located in the north east part of the United States. 17 years later in 2008 the President is George W. Bush, the United States is fighting another war in the Gulf against Iraq. The NFL New York Giants win the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots(NE Patriots are located in the north east of the United States). Perhaps this is just a coincidence or maybe there is something more to the cycles.

In 1907 the stock market had a one year crash that was very similar to what we are seeing today. Please note that this is 100 years. The stock market peaked in October of 2007. We have now approached the one year anniversary from that 2007 high. In 1907 and 1908 the Chicago Cubs baseball team made the playoffs in consecutive years. The Chicago Cubs repeated that feat in 2007 and 2008 by making the playoffs in consecutive years, exactly 100 years later. The irony of the story is that a cub is is a baby bear. This market is a bear market. In 1907 it was JP Morgan who came to the rescue and in 2008, exactly 100 years later it is JP Morgan Chase who is again coming to the rescue.

The Mayan civilization used a very advanced calender and cycle system. As most of us now know the 2012 cycle is when all the Mayan cycles converge. This event signals the end of an age and a beginning of the next age. However, there is one cycle that stands out to me. It is called the 'Mayan long count'. This is a 52 year cycle that ends naturally in December 2012 with the rest of the Mayan cycles. If we subtract 52 years from 2012 we get 1960. This was a pivotal time in the U.S. If we subtract 104 (2*52) from 2012 we get 1908. As we all know this bear market is very similar to the 1907 stock market crash which ended in 1908. You can draw your own conclusions.

The last cycle that I will examine is the 10 year cycle. Ten is known as a perfect number, hence perfect 10. Therefore, I personally watch the 10 year cycle and multiples of ten. In the year 2000, major stock indexes began a new bear market. 2010 will be the 10 year anniversary from the 2000 bear market. The market also sold off in 1910 and 1911. This is also 100 years from 2010. Many times market tops are formed in the ninth, zero, and one years of decades. For example 1929, 1910, 1920, 1980, 1990, and 2000 just to name a few.

Whats the conclusion? This is a severe bear market without question. Short term traders appear to be the only people benefiting from the volatile market. This type of environment should last for several years to come. If you are going to invest or trade it is imperative to know and understand the mechanics of the market and not the Wall Street Hype.

Source: Nicholas Santiago,
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Old Jul 21, 2009, 9:11pm   #22
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Cycles have been repeating from the beginning of time
How do you know ?


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Old Jul 21, 2009, 10:16pm   #23
 
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I love these threads!

re: names of presidents / wars.
show me another example in history where 17 years apart the same name president was in the White House. I will allow you the advantage of them not being involved in a war.
Note however the more prosaic facts of rich and connected people all in high levels of society and political "dynasties", eg, the Kennedys, Roosevelts, etc. But for the fact of tragedy, Robert Kennedy could easily have followed JFK into office. Edward K is a "kingmaker", but who are the next generation Kennedys? Then we have the current Clintons. She has at least another 2 attempts before she's too old to run.
Horror of horrors, Jeb Bush is still alive and may attempt to run for office.
The answers here are more down to earth.

re: peaks around 9, 0 and 1. thats a 3 in 10 chance. Can you show peaks of greater than 3/10 chance?

re: football. the "Cubs" of 1908 are a different team than the "Cubs" of 2008. Its a powerful franchise. In the same way Manchester United is. They have the money to buy their way to success. The name is there, but the people constantly change.
"Cubs" are baby bears = great. (but arent baby (Cleveland) tigers known as cubs? and (Detroit) lion "cubs")
Now show me a chart where wins by the Chicago "Bulls" presage years of great prosperity!

As Fox Mulder would say "I want to Believe".

EDIT: chicago bulls are a basketball team?? oh well. you know the gist of my post!
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Old Jul 22, 2009, 1:33am   #24
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What A Difference A Day Makes

InTheMoneyStocks started this thread As of today, everyone is proclaiming the March lows have successfully been tested and the new bull market has begun. On June 11th, the market made an intra day high on the S&P at 956.23. Everything was rosy on Wall Street again. The new administration was in charge and radical change was taking place. The market seemed to have accepted the new regulations that the new leaders were putting into place. On the surface, it really appeared the President Obama's stimulus plan was working and perhaps the world can print their way out of this financial crisis. The previous administration tried three separate stimulus plans only to see more problems occur. The money seemed to have been wasted. Oil was soaring once again, as it felt like 2007 all over again. Is it really different this time? Can they really inflate this economy back to health?



On July 7th, the talking heads in the media were all proclaiming a head and shoulders top was in place and the market should decline down to the 820 level on the S&P and perhaps possibly test the March lows. On July 10th, I heard the average person talking about a 'head and shoulders' top. Head and shoulders are extremely bearish patterns. These same people who were talking about the head and shoulders top, just days before, thought it was a shampoo developed by Proctor and Gamble. All of the sudden, everyone was a market technician and an expert chartist. What happened to the green shoots from June 11th? After all, this was the first correction since the market bottomed on March 6th at the low of 666.79. It is sometimes comical how people expect things to go straight to the moon without a retrace or pullback after a 40 percent rally. This just is not the way that markets function.



On July 10th, after a one month pullback, the market seemed to be floundering. The crowd was in on the short side eagerly awaiting the big decline. The following week starting July 12th-17th was options expiration week and the markets began a massive rally. The low print on the S&P that Monday July 12th was 875.81. In just six trading days the SPX made a new closing high of 951.13. This is a move of over 8 percent and everyone is talking about green shoots again. Did you really think the shorts and the buyers of put options were really going to cash in that easily? What changed all of the sudden? What happened to retesting the lows?



In the world of trading and investing there is an old saying that should be remembered, 'the best moves come from failed moves'. Therefore, when the media or the so called market mavens are talking about a breakdown or breakout pattern to the world, rarely will you see that pattern play out. The market never does what the crowd expects. In just six short days green shoots are back and sprouting everywhere. The market has fully recaptured a full months worth of declines in less than seven trading days. The media and its talking heads are once again wearing their bull costume. Dow 10,000 is being proclaimed on every channel on the tube. I want off this bullish train ride, something stinks. What a difference a day makes!


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