Forex daily Analysis

Forex today: a lot of news

21.05.2018

The greenback is continuing to rise. The US dollar index has almost reached the level of $94. Good news on a trade war’s easing is supporting the upward movement.
More information on the trade war’s issue. After 5-day negotiations in Washington, the US and China came to an agreement. Countries agreed to put trade tariffs on hold. Moreover, China plans to "significantly increase purchases" of U.S. goods. However, putting trade tensions on hold does not mean an end of the conflict. Let’s see how long the US and China will be loyal to each other.
The euro continues its downward movement. EUR/USD is trading within 1.1680-1.1840. Italy still puts pressure on the single currency. Today, leaders of two coalition parties - the League and the 5 Star Movement - will meet with the Italian president to present their candidate on a position of a prime minister. Whether the president will approve the candidate, the Italian government’s formation will be closer to the end. However, it is not supposed to encourage the single currency a lot, as worries on the future policy of the new government still exist. The euro is anticipated to trade within 1.1680-1.1840.



The pound is losing points ahead of the next round of Brexit negotiations. GBP/USD tested the support at 1.34. No important economic data will be released today. So if bears are stronger, the pair will break the support at 1.34. Otherwise, it will trade within 1.34-1.35. On Tuesday, the next round of Brexit talks will take place in Brussels. Last week was full of mixed news. Firstly, there were reports in the media that the UK is ready to stay tied to the customs union beyond 2021. Then, however, British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Thursday that Britain will leave the EU customs union after all. As we can see, the Tuesday’s round is supposed to be interesting. Moreover, inflation report hearings will be out on Tuesday at 12:00 MT time. The pound has chances to recover.



The easing of the trade war’s tensions was supposed to support the aussie. However, the Australian currency could not gain momentum. AUD/USD is above the pivot point at 0.75 for the third day. No notable economic data are anticipated either on Monday or on Tuesday. If traders take into consideration trade war’s easing more seriously, the AUD/USD pair has chances to stay above the pivot point. Otherwise, the strong greenback will weigh on the AUD/USD’s movement and the pair will break the support (pivot point) at 0.75.



The New Zealand dollar lost a chance to break above the pivot point at 0.69 because of the weak retail sales’ data (actual 0.1% vs forecast 1.0%). NZD/USD plunged below the support at 0.69 and is moving to the next one at 0.6850. No significant economic data are anticipated to be released in next few days, so, only the weaker greenback will be able to pull the NZD/USD pair back to the pivot point at 0.69.



The NAFTA deal is under pressure. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that US president Donald Trump aims at a good deal and he doesn’t worry about any deadline. Moreover, it doesn’t mean that Mr. Trump will avoid withdrawal from the deal or any other action if he decides it’s the best option. Negotiations may continue until 2019. The comments appeared after Trump administration missed a deadline for finishing the agreement by May 17.

The USD/CAD pair was rising since Thursday till the beginning of this week. However, up to now, the Canadian dollar is rising against the US dollar. Maybe news on a possibility of any negotiations supported investors’ confidence in any progress in the deal. USD/CAD is moving to the support at 1.2850. Today is a bank holiday in Canada. As a result, no important data will be released. If bears are able to pull the pair below the support, the next aim is at 1.2825 (50-day MA). Otherwise, the pair will stay above 1.2850.


That is all for today.

I need today market analysis for XAU/USD and EUR/USD.. Thanks.

News to trade on November 15

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15.11.2018

The series of unfortunate events are chasing the British pound today. At first, the release of retail sales dropped by 0.5% (vs. the expected rise of 0.2%). After that, the UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab announced his resignation. According to his words, he cannot further support the current terms of the Brexit proposal to EU. Despite that, the UK Conservative Lawmaker said that committee has the 48 letters calling for a no-confidence vote against the UK PM May As a result, GBP/USD fell significantly testing the October's lows. Up to this moment, it is testing the support at 1.2817. If more uncertainties appear, GBP/USD can extend slide towards the support at 1.2677. Positive news on Brexit will help the pair to recover. If it happens, the resistance for the pair lies at 1.3035.

The United States is awaiting the releases of retail sales and core retail sales at 15:30 MT time. Experts forecast the total retail sales to increase by 0.6% in October. At the same time, the level of retail sales excluding automobiles will rise by 0.5%. Higher-than-expected levels will be supportive for the greenback. In addition, the speech by the Fed Chair Powell at 18:30 can bring some optimism to US dollar bulls.

Earlier today, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell could not help the USD to recover from the weak CPI release. As a result, the US dollar index could not hold its price at 97 level. If the USD gains support today from the retail release, it will rise above the resistance at 97.21. Otherwise, it can fall towards the support at 96.35, unless the Fed Chair fails to deliver a positive message.

The level of crude oil inventories is anticipated at 18:00 MT time. The number of barrels is projected to increase by the additional 2.9 million. If the actual level is higher, the oil price will extend its losses. Recently, OPEC announced the future plans of 1.4 million production cut in December. As a result, Brent gained, testing the 66.06 resistance yesterday. If OPEC continues to follow the strategy of rising barrel prices, Brent can cross the resistance at 66.06. The next resistance lies at 67.96. However, the increased levels of oil production will drive Brent towards the support at 62.98.

As for WTI, it also rose and tested the resistance at 56.26. The supply cut will pull the price above the 56.26. The next resistance is placed at 58.11. Bearish pressure can move WTI downwards to the next support at 53.25.

The upbeat employment data for Australia supported the aussie today. The number of employed people increased by 32.8 thousand workers (vs. 19.9 expected) and the unemployment rate hit 5% (vs. the expectations of 5.1%). It helped the Australian dollar to cross the 100-day MA at 0.7254 and test the resistance at 0.7292. Risk-on sentiment across the equity market will help the Australian dollar to stick above 0.7292. However, the US Vice President Mike Pence said about no plans of meeting with Chinese officials in near future. It can increase the US-China uncertainties according to the future direction of the trade war and make the aussie fell below the support at 0.7237 towards the next support at 0.7171.


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Japanese exports rebound in October

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16.11.2018

In October, Japan's exports rebounded following dives provoked by a series of natural disasters. That’s what a Reuters survey disclosed on Friday. However, fears over global demand as well as the US-China trade conflict still pressure.

Exports were anticipated to leap by 9% in October from 2017. That’s the fastest tempo of gain since January, according to the interview of 16 financial analysts. In September, they dived by 1.3%.

As for imports, they rallied by 14.5% from 2017, providing a trade deficit of up to 70 billion yen.

Financial analysts told that the overall tempo pace of expansion in global trade is currently decelerating and Japan’s exports surge has appeared to be quite sluggish. However, they’re assured that adverse impacts from natural disasters diminished.

Notwithstanding the fact the American economy is firm enough, but the economies in other areas are slumping, thus impacting global trade, including Japan's exports.

The finance ministry is expected to uncover the trade data at 8:50 a.m. on November 19.

In addition to this, the survey also disclosed that the nationwide core consumer price index without fresh food prices, but with fuel costs managed to head north by up to 1% in October from 2017. That’s a steady outcome from September.

Besides this, financial analysts added that leaps in crude prices till September probably assisted to ramp up costs of energy-related items, although those weren’t firm enough to have the core CPI underpinned.

Furthermore, the Japanese government is expected to uncover the CPI data on November 22 at 8:30 a.m.

As a matter of fact, Japan's economy headed south more than anticipated in the third quarter, affected by natural disasters as well as a dive in exports. That’s a worrying sign that trade protectionism is starting to heavily impact overseas demand.

News to trade on November 22

22.11.2018

Please, note!

On November 22nd and 23rd due to Thanksgiving celebration, the trading schedule for metals and American futures will be changed.

On November 22nd:

•Trading for XAUUSD, XAGUSD, Palladium, Platinum will be closed at 20:00 MT;

•Trading for WTI, BRENT will be closed at 19:45 MT

On November 23rd:

•Trading for XAUUSD, XAGUSD, Palladium, Platinum will be closed at 20:45 MT

•Trading for WTI, BRENT will be closed at 20:30 MT

Please, keep these changes in mind when planning your trading sessions. Do not hesitate to contact the FBS Support team in case you have any questions.

Yesterday, the European Commission rejected the proposed Italian budget. Italian authorities including deputy's Prime Minister Matteo Salvini are planning future negotiations on this topic. Positive news can help the EUR to gain towards the resistance at 1.1487. If the uncertainties appear, EUR/USD will fall to the support at 1.1350.

The EU and the UK negotiators have agreed on draft Brexit, according to today's news. Now the future of this agreement depends on the decision of 27 EU members. This is a good news ahead of the EU Summit on November 25. The British PM Theresa May will try to finalize the Brexit agreement before Sunday's summit. Today, she is expected to make her speech to parliament at 16:30 MT (14:30 GMT) time.The GBP was supported heavily by the news, jumping above the resistance at the central pivot at 1.2874 and testing the 1.29 level. The next resistance for the cable lies at 1.3026. In case, of uncertainties, the British pound can fall towards the support at 1.2677.

During the Asian session, the NDZ/USD sellers pulled the New Zealand dollar, making it the biggest loser during the Thanksgiving holidays. The kiwi propped below the support at the central pivot at 0.6820. The next support lies at 0.6756. If the risk-on sentiment across the equity markets stabilizes, NZD/USD will rise towards the resistance at 0.6882 (200-day MA).

As for the AUD, the economists at ANZ pushed their expectations for a rate hike to August 2020. It drove the Australian dollar to test the support at 100-day MA at 0.7251. If the bearish pressure increases, AUD/USD can fall towards the next support at 0.7216. The risk-on sentiment can help the aussie to stick above 0.7277.

Weekly CryptoNews

23.11.2018

Charlie Lee, the founder of Litecoin (LTC): “You can’t regulate something without controlling it … If states are very friendly and welcoming to it (which they should be) that would be better, but even if they put a ban on Bitcoin, people will still use Bitcoin … There’s a saying which I don’t think is passed around enough anymore and that’s “You can take your country out of Bitcoin, but you can’t take Bitcoin out of your country.” And it’s very true.”

On Monday, Bitcoin crossed the psychological level at $5,000, testing the ground below $4,300. The analysts tell two main reasons for this slump. At first, the recent hard fork of Bitcoin Cash added uncertainties to the market. The hard fork happened due to the conflict resulted in the creation of two blockchains: Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV. This led to a creation of two different coins listed to various exchanges, which started to battle over the hash power. In addition, the recent US Securities and Exchange Commission comments against ICOs disappointed the investors. The regulator applied penalties against two cryptocurrency companies because they failed to register initial coin offerings as securities. It’s also worth to mention, that the risk-off sentiment across equity markets might contribute to the bitcoin losses. On Wednesday, buyers pushed the price above the $4,700 level but did not manage to hold it. Today, the granddad of cryptocurrencies has already tested the support at $4,258. More uncertainties will pull its price below this level. If bulls are strong, Bitcoin can rise towards the resistance at $4,750.

In other news:

Chinese miners drop out of business. One of the Chinese mining pools F2Pool announced the recent collapse of a price forced companies to fire thousands of miners to stop losses.

Chainalysis counted that the number of bitcoin payments decreased by 80% since December 2017 because of the recent Bitcoin plunge.

Cryptocurrency exchange platform OKEx closed positions in the amount of 135 million dollars without any warning. That’s why traders had big losses.

Altcoins:

Bitcoin ABC can be called a winner of the “hash war” as most of the crypto exchanges and CoinMarketCap accepted it as BitcoinCash adherent. As for BCH SV, it was accepted as a separate coin. Will the bleeding of the crypto market stop as the war ended?

Grant Thornton International approved stablecoin USDC is backed by US dollars.

Regulations:

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will launch its own cryptocurrency in 2019. It will be used as an internal currency for trans-border transactions between the banks.

Since January 1, 3000 cigarette stores in France are planning to launch operations in Bitcoin.

New releases:

The launch of a new trading platform Bakkt and start of Bitcoin-futures trades was postponed to January 24, 2019.

Bitcoin $4,380.1(-4.15%)

DASH $106.0 (-6.99%)

Ethereum $124.89 (-7.23%)

Litecoin: $31.71 (-5.68%)

5 things you need to know this week!

26.11.2018

The speech by the European Central bank president Mario Draghi (Mon, 16:00 MT (14:00 GMT) – the ECB president will testify before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee about monetary policy. His speeches make the EUR volatile.

The Reserve bank of New Zealand financial stability report (Tue, 22:00 MT (20:00 GMT) – the inflationary pressures in November increased, however, the RBNZ did not alter its forecast to the rate changes. The tone of the RBNZ has been more dovish than usual during the last months. If it changes the course based on inflation and employment data, we can anticipate some volatility to the NZD.

US preliminary GDP (Wed, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) – the economy of the US grew by 3.5% in the last quarter, higher, than the expected 3.3% by experts. The digits came as a result of positive releases of private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures, local and state government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and federal government spending. On Wednesday, analysts anticipate the preliminary GDP to reach 3.6%. If this data is higher than expected, it will contribute to the rise of the USD.

The speech by the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Wed, 19:00 MT (17:00 GMT) – the Fed Chair will make his speech on the topic “The Federal Reserve’s Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability” in New York. Yet another possibility for the USD traders to take an advantage from the volatility.

US Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes (Thu, 21:00 MT (19:00 GMT) – in November the Fed downgraded its assessment of the business investment level. We expect the Thursday’s meeting to shed the light on the bank’s concern about the slowdown. In addition, the hints on December’s rate hike are expected.

Hot topics:


Yesterday, the British Prime Minister Theresa May got the deal from the European Commission. European leaders warned Britain that there is no plan “B”. For now, the future direction of Brexit depends on whether it can be approved by the Parliament. Politicians announced the middle of December to be the deadline for this decision. If it is no deal, then it will add the uncertainties amid the expectations of the second referendum or hard Brexit.

One of the most anticipated events of the week is the G20 summit where the US president Trump and the Chinese president Xi Jinping will meet. If the steps resolving trade tensions are taken by both sides, it will be highly appreciated by markets. However, it will make the US Dollar weaker. In addition, the members will talk about the direction of oil prices in 2019.

The Italian government will discuss the possibility of a lower deficit target today at 20:30 MT (18:30 GMT). Tria may present different budget goals during the meeting. However, the Italian deputy prime minister is not intended to change the fiscal measures. This can add uncertainties to the future measures of the Italian deficit.

US, Mexico, and Canada may sign the USMCA trade agreement during this week.

Have a successful week of trading!

News to trade on November 27

27.11.2018

The Brexit deal is anticipating the votes by parliament on 11th of December. For now, the future Brexit direction depends on whether the parliament will approve the deal. If it is declined, Britain should either expect a second referendum or a hard Brexit. As far as uncertainties around the potential decline are floating, it affects the GBP negatively. More negative news will pull GBP/USD below the 1.2738 support. In case of positive news, it will rise towards the resistance at 1.2832.

The American CB consumer confidence will be released at 17:00 MT time Last month it reached a higher-than-expected level of 137.9 points. Analysts anticipate a slight decline to 136.2 points in November. If the actual digits are higher, the USD will be supported.

Yesterday, fresh comments by US president Donald Trump on raising tariffs in Chinese imports resulted in gains of the US dollar index. However, it could not break the psychological level of 97. If today’s release outperforms the forecast, the USD can stick above the resistance at 97. Otherwise, it will fall to the support at 96.55 which lies near the 100-day MA.

As for USD/JPY, the pair was a big gainer yesterday. It crossed the 50-day MA and the 113 level. If the USD extend its gains today, the pair will manage to stick above the resistance at 113.64. If the USD disappoints the investors, it can fall below the support at 113.29.

As for the NZD, at 22:00 MT we are awaiting the Reserve bank of New Zealand to publish its financial stability report. We will see if the central bank provides any hints for changing its dovish tone due to the increased inflationary and employment data.

Trump’s comments made the New Zealand dollar to fall below the 100-MA on a 4-hour chart. However, the pair managed to recover. If the RBNZ report is hawkish, we can expect the pair to rise towards the resistance at 0.6806. In case of the strong USD, the pair will drop to the support at 0.6738.

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News to trade on November 28

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28.11.2018

US preliminary GDP is due to release today at 15:30 MT time. The economy of the US grew by 3.5% in the last quarter. The digits came as a result of positive releases of private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures, local and state government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Analysts anticipate the preliminary GDP to reach 3.6%. If this data is higher than expected, it will contribute to the rise of the USD.

In addition, at 19:00 MT we anticipate the speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. His speech may provide clues on the Fed's view of the US economy and the further rate hikes.

During the American session, Trump commented again on the rate hikes by the Fed, mentioning that he is "not even a little bit happy" with the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

As a result, the US dollar index has slid a little today. Further direction of the index depends on the Fed chair comments and the GDP release. If they provide the positivity to the investors, the US Dollar index can rise towards the resistance at 97.48. In case of disappointment, it can fall below the support at 97.16

Britain is awaiting the bank stress test results at 18:30 MT. It is the spotlight of the day for the GBP traders, as it will give an insight into the UK economy ability to survive a hard Brexit. In addition, the financial stability report will be published and the BOE's Governor Mark Carney will deliver his speech afterward. In addition, the British central bank will be publishing its economic assessment of the Brexit outcome during the day. However, any fresh news on the Brexit approval ahead of the House of Commons decision scheduled on December 11 will bring volatility to the British pound. Positive data and confident Carney will push GBP/USD towards the resistance at 1.2832. In the negative case, the pair will fall below the support at 1.2738.

The news about the US-China talks remain the market movers ahead of the Friday's China president Xi Jinping meeting with US president Donald Trump. Earlier today, Chinese president commented on the widening market access for foreign investors. As a result, the risk-on sentiment across the markets increased. The Antipodeans were lifted by the news. For now, AUD/USD has tested 100-day MA. If the risk-on sentiment increases, the pair can rise towards the resistance at 0.7253. In case of negative news on the escalation of the trade war, the pair will fall towards the 0.7179 support.

As for NZD/USD, it has tested the 0.6806 resistance today. More positivity among the investors will push the pair above this level. The next resistance for the pair lies at 0.6844. Otherwise, it will fall towards the support at 0.6738.

News to trade on November 29

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29.11.2018

Yesterday, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell surprised the market with the dovish speech. According to his comments, he is not likely to continue with gradual rate hikes next year. “Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy" – the key statement from his speech.

Today, we anticipate the release of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee November’s meeting at 21:00 MT time. We will see whether it can provide some support to the USD.

How did the Fed Chair speech affect the key currency pairs?

EUR/USD tested the resistance at 1.1378. Dovish tone of the FOMC statement will help the pair to rise towards the resistance at 1.1429. Otherwise, if the statement contains some supportive data for the USD, it will fall towards the support at 1.1284.

In addition, the Italian budget issue still triggers the investors. According to the latest news, the Italian government is not planning to move their deficit target lower than 2.2%. This is a small update from the previous 2.4% level, which also pulls EUR/USD down.

The British pound followed the same scenario after the dovish Powell. However, the Brexit uncertainties and negative outlooks ahead of the Parliamentary vote on December 11 keep affecting the market. If the FOMC statement shows uncertainty, GBP/USD will stick above the resistance at 1.2832. More negative news on Brexit will pull the pair towards the support at 1.2738.

The USD suffered losses while trading against the Japanese yen. Positive comments from the American central bank will help the pair to rise towards the resistance at 114.132. In case of dovish tone, the pair will stick below the support at 113.286.

During the Asian session, the New Zealand dollar slid due to the unchanged Business confidence numbers at -37%. The weak USD can help NZD/USD to rise towards the resistance at 0.6912. Otherwise, it can stick below the support at 0.6844.

The AUD, on the other hand, was driven by bulls as the risk-on sentiment across the Asian equity markets increased. If the USD is weak, AUD/USD can continue moving towards the resistance at 0.7376. If the risk-off sentiment increases, the pair will fall below the support at 0.7303.

In other news, oil extends losses ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on December 6. The fears that OPEC+ will fail to deliver the expected output cuts are moving the market. WTI dropped to the last year levels, testing the ground below $50. More comments on output cuts will help it to rise towards the resistance at $52.77. More uncertainties will pull the price below the psychological support at $50.

As for Brent, it fell below the $60 level. The next support for the crude lies at $55.74. If the bulls take over, the resistance for it lies at $61.68

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Weekly CryptoNews

30.11.2018

Tim Draper, billionaire, venture investor: “I mean, just by that alone, just that they cost you less, it’s going to be better for people. And so they’re going to move to crypto, and they’re going to go away from the political currency – they call it fiat”

On Monday, Bitcoin extended losses and fell below $3,700. The recovery for the digital asset started in the middle of the week. Bitcoin rose above the $4,300 level on Wednesday. However, the correction turned out to be short-lived and the traders’ uncertainties formed a red Doji candlestick on Thursday. For now, we can see a limited volatility of the cryptocurrency. If Bitcoin is supported by bullish investors, it can rise towards the next significant resistance at $4,750. If uncertainties around the crypto market continue, it can fall to the support at $3,660. Was it a bearish trap or a rebound?

In other news:

Amazon launched a platform for the creation of the blockchain network based on Hyperledger Fabric or Ethereum;

The new WTO release said the blockchain would carry out the international economy to a new level in 10-15 years.

Cryptocurrency wallet Copay was hacked on Monday and now all the private keys belong to hackers. The users were suggested to update the application and withdraw money to a different wallet.

NASDAQ Bitcoin futures are anticipated to be out in the first quarter of 2019.

Regulations:

Financial Ministry of the US applied sanctions against two bitcoin addresses, which belong to the residents of Iran or connected with the bypass of the sanctions.

CFTC of the US released an instruction for developers and users of smart-contracts. In short, if it is used for breaking the law, users will be responsible for it.

The Ohio state authorities allowed companies to pay taxes in Bitcoins

British financial regulator handles cases against 50 crypto companies which operate without a license.

New releases:

New investment crypto product Amun Crypto Basket ETP has the biggest trade volume on the Swiss trading exchange.

Bitcoin $4,256.4

Ethereum $118.44

Litecoin $33.68

DASH: $97.43

European equities are backed by trade war truce

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03.12.2018

On Monday, autos, miners, tech as well as crude stocks all managed to surge, powering the EU’s key benchmarks after Chinese and American presidents agreed a temporary truce in their everlasting trade conflict that has roiled financial markets worldwide.

The DAX index in Germany, which appears to be the most sensitive to China as well as trade war worries, led the way with a 2.5% leap, reaching its highest value since November 14. Additionally, the STOXX 600 rallied by 1.9%, finding itself on track for its most productive day for eight months.

Financials appeared to be the greatest boost to EU equities because China-exposed bank HSBC tacked on and lenders across the region welcomed the prospect of a détente in a trade conflict that has impacted world economic surge prospects.

Mining shares SXPP led profits with a 5% ascend because metals rallied on the news that gives China, the world's number one metals consumer, a good push.

Anglo American, Glencore, and Antofagasta happened to be among the top EU gainers, soaring by 6.1%- 6.9%.

Car equities SXAP that have been affected by worries of soaring levies, headed north by up to 4.2% right after US leader told that China had agreed to reduce import levies on American-made vehicles.

German car makers Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler rallied by 4.8%-6.2%, while car suppliers ascended too. Moreover, tire maker Continental ascended by 4.1%, while Faurecia tacked on by 6.9%.

As for the crude sector SXEP, it gained 2.6% because oil jumped on the trade conflict truce and also ahead of this week’s OPEC gathering, anticipated to result in a supply cut.

Luxury stocks extremely sensitive to the Chinese economy also turned out to be among top performers, with heavyweight conglomerate LVMH adding 5.3%. Additionally, Gucci owner Kering surged by 6.2%.

News to trade on December 4

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04.12.2018

During the Asian session, the US 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to its three-month lows. Analysts mention the slowdown of inflation as the main reason for this slump.

As a result, USD/JPY fell sharply below the central pivot at 113.445 and 50-day MA, testing the ground at the 112.860 support.

The speech by the Federal Open Market committee member Williams at 17:00 MT time can support the US Dollar. If his speech contains hawkish comments, the pair can stick above the 112.860 level.

EUR/USD keeps appreciating against the weak US Dollar. Today, the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will present the new budget proposal to the EU. For now, the anticipated target is 2% (vs. previous 2.4%). However, the actual target could be even lower. If the new deficit target satisfies the market, the EUR will stick above the resistance at 1.1391. The next resistance lies at 1.1432 (50-day ma). If the USD is supported by the FOMC member’s speech, EUR/USD will fall towards the support at 1.1329.

Today, the general advocate for the European Court of Justice published an opinion in which he said the UK could revoke Article 50. It provides hope for British supporters to stay in the European Union to reverse Brexit if the withdrawal agreement by the British Prime Minister Teresa May is rejected by Parliament on December 11. At the time of writing, GBP/USD has been rising towards the resistance at 1.2833. In case of more Brexit uncertainties, the pair will stick below the 1.2778 level.

As the USD keeps sliding with the 10-year Treasury bond yield at its three-month lows, it boosts the price for gold. Currently, the price for the yellow metal is testing the resistance at $1,238. If this level is broken, the next resistance lies at $1,248. If bulls cannot hold this level, the support for gold lies at $1,230.

The latest news from OPEC contained information about a planned output cut of at least 1.3 million barrels. Brent has already tested the resistance at $63.09 on the news. Further comments about output cut will help the crude to stick above $63.09. If the news on the increased output appears, the price will fall towards the support at $60.88.

As for WTI, the anticipation of the output cut will help its price to break the resistance at $53.93 and rise towards the next resistance at $55.32. If bears take over, the support for it lies at $52.21.

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News to trade on December 5

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05.12.2018

Yesterday's tweet by US president Donald Trump renewed fears about reaching the trade deal with China. "We are either going to have a REAL DEAL with China, or no deal at all”, - said Mr. Trump. In case of no deal, the US will charge a huge number of tariffs against Chinese production. It increased the risk aversion across the financial markets in Asia.

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar fell on the release of the weak GDP. The Australian economy grew by 0.3% in the 3rd quarter, a lower level than the expected 0.6%. The decline happened due to the increased household consumption, driven by spending on food and housing. In addition, the household saving ratio declined to 2.4% in the 3rd quarter. This is the lowest saving rate since December 2007.

AUD/USD has already tested the support at 0.7285 on the news. The strong USD can make the pair retest this level. If the risk-on sentiment across the equity markets increases due to more certainty in the US-China trade deal, the aussie will rise towards the resistance at 0.7370.

EUR/USD fell as the US Dollar had strengthened yesterday after the optimistic comments by the FOMC member John Williams. He anticipates further interest rate hikes by Fed.

After that, the risk-off sentiment contributed to the rise of the greenback. As for the euro, the Italian budget news keeps triggering investors and traders.

If the EUR is supported by the positive news from Italy, EUR/USD can rise towards the resistance at 1.1391. Otherwise, if the USD keeps gaining, the pair can stick below the support at 1.1329.

The European Central Justice announced on Tuesday that the UK could withdraw the Article 50 anytime. That means the country can move out of Brexit and stay within the European Union. However, the British Prime Minister said the country would not quit Brexit under any circumstances. In addition, May lost the three key votes yesterday. Two of them were forcing her to publish secret government legal advice on her Brexit deal. The prime minister said she would release it on Wednesday.

If more uncertainties on the Brexit agreement come out, GBP/USD can stick below the support at 1.2694. In case of more certainty, the pair will rise towards the resistance at 1.2778.

The Bank of Canada rate statement is scheduled at 17:00 MT time. We anticipate the central bank to leave the rates unchanged this time, however, the Governor Stephen Poloz and his colleagues may provide hawkish statements, which may signal the possible increase in the rate in January. In addition, the recently-signed USNCA agreement supports the BOC's hawkish view. If the BOC delivers supportive comments for the CAD, USD/CAD will fall towards the support at 1.3195. If the central bank’s statement disappoints investors and the USD is stronger, USD/CAD will stick above the resistance at 1.3277.

News to trade on December 6

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06.12.2018

The Chief Financial Officer of Huawei Technologies Co was arrested in Canada over potential violations of US sanctions on Iran, which fueled the trade tensions between the US and China and increased the risk-off sentiment across the equity markets.

During the Asian session, the Australian dollar fell below the 100-day MA, testing the support at 0.7226. The reason for it lies in the dovish outlook for 2019 by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Yesterday’s weak GDP release had a significant impact on the RBA message. If the capital’s outflow from the risky assets continues, the pair will stick below the 0.7285 level and fall towards the next support at 0.7182 (50-day MA). Otherwise, it will rise above the 0.7226 level.

The Bank of Canada statement did not contain any supportive information for the Canadian dollar yesterday. Today, USD/CAD has already crossed the resistance at 1.3368 and has risen towards the next resistance at 1.3450.

The pair is waiting for two releases today: the Canadian trade balance at 15:30 MT time and the American ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 17:00 MT time. According to forecast, we will see the deficit of 7 million Canadian dollars in the trade balance of Canada. If actual figures outperform the forecast, the CAD will be supported. If the trade balance for Canada is greater than expected, the pair will fall towards the 1.3368 level. If it’s broken, the pair will target the next support at 1.3277. Otherwise, if the USD is strong, the pair will be able to stick above the 1.3450 level.

EUR/USD is trading sideways with strong support at 1.1329. If the USD is supported by higher-than-expected Non-Manufacturing PMI, the pair will fall towards the next support at 1.1256. Otherwise, it will sick above 1.1329. The next resistance is placed at 1.1391.

The highly anticipated OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for today in Vienna. According to the recent comments by the OPEC+ members, the production cut will be around 1 million barrels per day. The market did not like this low level as both WTI and Brent has dropped on this news. However, the final decision has not been reached. If they agree on the greater oil output cut, the levels of crude’s price will gain. At the moment of writing, the price for WTI has crossed the $52.2 level and has tested the next support at $50.81. In case of the positive outcome, the price for WTI will go up and can stick above $52.20. The next resistance is placed at $53.92. If the sides do not reach an agreement, WTI’s price will stick below the support at $50.81. The next support is at $49.09. Tomorrow, OPEC members will meet with Russia to finalize the oil output cuts.

Brent follows the similar scenario. If the OPEC+ members decide on the cut of oil production, the crude’s price can stick above the resistance at $61.03. Otherwise, it will fall below the support at $59.41. The next support is placed at $57.4.

Weekly CryptoNews

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07.12.2018

Zhao Dong, crypto billionaire, OTC trader: “In the bull market, I don’t persuade people to buy Bitcoin, because it seems easy to make quick money but in fact, it is not. Now, I start to talk people into buying Bitcoin.”

Since the beginning of the week, Bitcoin has been going down. On Monday, it fell below the psychological level at $4,000. Despite the slight recovery on Tuesday, it kept falling and retested the support at $3,617 on Thursday. Today bears managed to pull the price for the digital asset below the $3,617 level. One of the main reasons behind the current panic-selling lies in the postponed decision on the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Thursday. Another reason may be connected with yesterday's news on a lawsuit against Bitcmain, Bitcoin.com and the Kraken Bitcoin Exchange, which accused them of a plan to take control of the Bitcoin Cash network. If the bearish pressure continues, Bitcoin will fall towards the next support at the September 2017 minimum at $2,970. If the oldest cryptocurrency manages to recover, it will rise above the $3,617 level to the resistance at $4,100.

In other news:

On December 3-5, 199,000 BTC were withdrawn from users, who were inactive since 2014. Transactions were divided by 660 BTC and then were collected on other addresses. No one knows the reason behind it yet.

The largest whale who controls 12 million LTC was found in the Litecoin network.

The share of Tether (USDT) in the market of stablecoins decreased from 90% to 74% during this year.

After the automatic recalculations, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining dropped by 15%. This is the biggest drop since November 2011.

Earlier today, Ethereum’s price collapsed from $100 to $13 on Coinbase Pro but managed to recover in an hour. Coinbase representatives have not commented yet on the sudden crash.

Regulations:

G20 countries will develop the united system for cryptocurrencies’ regulations based on the Financial action task force (FATF) recommendations.

France, Italy, Cyprus, Malta, Portugal, Greece and Spain signed an agreement on a joint promotion of blockchain technologies.

The US authorities decided to analyze the anonymous crypto transactions. Let’s wait where it will go.

New releases:

NASDAQ vice president of Communications approved the plans of the trading platform to launch Bitcoin-futures at the beginning of 2019.

Huawei Corporation launched the cloud blockchain platform for the development of centralized applications.

Bitcoin $3,426.2

Ethereum $85.1

Litecoin $25.24

DASH: $62.85

EU equities slump

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10.12.2018

On Monday, escalating US-Chinese trade tensions impacted European equities due to the fact that market participants fled risk at the beginning of a highly uncertain week, with the UK’s parliamentary vote on Brexit looming too as well as chemicals shares affected by a BASF revenue warning.

The STOXX 600 index decreased by 0.9% hitting a new two-year minimum. The FTSE 100 slumped by about 0.4% in Great Britain, while the DAX index decreased by 0.8% in Germany.

Crude stocks SXEP went down by 1.1%, erasing their 2018 profits. Crude had been the last sector holding onto profits in the European bloc. All the STOXX 600 sector indices are currently staying in the red (with dives of 26% for cars and banks) or intact on the year.

Equities in BASF went down by 4.7% after the German chemicals company slashed its estimate for this year’s gains on Friday.

BASF counterpart Symrise declined by 3.1%, Sika sank by 5.1%, while Imerys went down by 5%, assisting to drag the pan-European chemicals index SX4P down 2.5% and also making it the worst-performer.

Construction and materials stocks, which are very sensitive to economic surge, declined by 1.5%, while autos stocks SXAP went down by 1.3% because trade tensions generated negative consequences.

Chipmakers Siltronic, STMicro, and AMS went down by 2.9%-5.1% because traders had the tech sector ditched.

French hotel, transport, and retail stocks dived reacting to a fourth weekend of "yellow vest" protests, affecting the national economy.

On the STOXX, LVMH and Kering found themselves among the biggest drags. However, France's CAC 40 didn’t manage to underperform European rivals, losing just 0.6%.

Stocks in British energy utilities Centrica as well as SSE went down by about 3% because traders remained quite passive ahead of a decisive vote on Brexit on Tuesday.

News to trade on December 11

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11.12.2018

During the Asian session, Chinese Vice President Liu, US trade secretary and trade representative exchanged their opinions on trade. However, it did not result in the increased risk-on sentiment due to the French and UK political uncertainties. As a result, on the daily chart of NZD/USD, the Doji candlestick was formed. Today, New Zealand anticipates the speech by the Reserve bank of New Zealand Governor is scheduled at 21:15 MT time. If the speech by the RBNZ governor is hawkish, the NZD will stick above the resistance at 0.6890. In case of the dovish comments or strong USD, it will fall towards the support at 0.6811.

As for AUD/USD, on the daily chart, the "inverted hammer" candlestick was formed yesterday. It can mean a possible reversal for the pair. If the risk aversion decreases, the pair can rise towards the resistance at 0.7260. Otherwise, the strong USD will pull the pair below the support at 0.7182 (50-day MA). The next support is placed at 0.7126.

Today we anticipate the release of US PPI and core PPI at 15:30 MT time. According to analysts, the headline PPI will remain at the same level. As for the core PPI, it is expected to increase by 0.1%. Yesterday, strong US Dollar pulled EUR/USD below the central pivot at 1.1374. The form of the candlestick shows an uncertainty among traders, as the pair even tested the level at 1.1437.

If the USD is supported by the PPI release, the pair will fall towards the support at 1.1323. Otherwise, it will stick above 1.1374.

Today, the British Prime Minister Theresa May is due to meet with the European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker at 20:15 MT time, the European commission president Donald Tusk at 18:00 MT time and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss the Brexit deal. Earlier, the president of the European Council Donald Tusk tweeted that the EU would not renegotiate Brexit deal. In addition, Mr. Junckler commented that the current Brexit deal was the only deal possible. If the negotiations bring more certainty, the GBP will rise towards the resistance at 1.2642. If Theresa May fails to bring positivity to the market, or the USD is strong, it will break the support at 1.2560 and target the next support at 1.2462.

It is not enough just to reach an agreement. OPEC+ brings new challenges to the market with uncertainties over how the coalition will implement its output cuts. As a result, the price for the crude oil fell yesterday.

If positive news about an oil cut is released, the price for WTI will stick above $52.23. More uncertainties will pull the crude’s price towards the support at $49.93.

As for Brent, the bearish pressure will make its price fall towards the support at $58.60. If the crude’s price is supported, the first resistance lies at $61.15.

News to trade on December 12

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12.12.2018

During the early Asian session, comments by US President Donald Trump cheered the markets. He said that he would intervene in Huawei CFO case if it’s good for reaching a great trade deal between the countries and national security. He also noted that negotiations with China have already started via phone. As for Auto tariffs on Japan and EU, they depend on trade negotiations with these countries.However, did not have much effect on the AUD and the NZD due to the strong US Dollar. Positive news on trade deal will help AUD/USD to rise towards the resistance at 0.7260. The risk-off sentiment will pull the pair downwards to the support at 0.7126.

As for NZD/USD, the risk-on mood can help the pair to recover and stick above the resistance at 0.6890. Otherwise, the strong US Dollar will pull it towards the support at 0.6811.

The USD got stronger against the JPY and drove USD/JPY towards the resistance at 113.6. If the USD weakens, the first support for the pair lies at 112.909.

Today we anticipate the release of the headline CPI and core CPI at 15:30 MT time. According to analysts, the headline consumer price index will drop to 0%, while the core CPI will stay at the same level at 0.2%. If the actual data is higher than the forecast, EUR/USD will fall. The first support lies at 1.1260. What can make EUR/USD rise? The successful negotiations between the European Commission president Mr. Juncker and the Italian prime minister Mr. Conte on Italian budget at 17:00 MT time. If the sides will renegotiate on the target of the Italian budget deficit, EUR/USD will rise towards the resistance at 1.1374. Otherwise, it will fall towards 1.1260.

Great Britain is awaiting the Confidence Vote on the Theresa May’s leadership. The members of the Conservative party will vote on whether they have confidence in the current prime minister at 20:00 MT time. If she loses, the leadership contest will begin and it will increase the uncertainty over the Brexit future. The negative news will pull GBP/USD towards the support at 1.2461. Otherwise, if Theresa May protects her place in the government and increases confidence in the Brexit deal, the pair will stick above the resistance at 1.2559.

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News to trade on December 13

Candlesticks graphs here:

13.12.2018

According to today’s news, Chinese authorities invited the US for further trade negotiations. They also said to plan more US soybean purchases today. As a result, AUD/USD moved higher. More positive news concerning the trade negotiations between the US and Сhina will push the pair towards the resistance at 0.7260. If the uncertainties increase, the pair will fall towards the support at 0.7182 (50-day MA).

The price for NZD/USD also showed uncertainty. If the risk-on sentiment increases, it will rise towards the resistance at 0.6890 and probably retest it. Otherwise, it will fall towards the support at 0.6738.

Today the economic calendar is highlighted by the ECB monetary policy statement at 14:45 MT time. The European central bank is anticipated to end its quantitative easing policy soon. The comments by the ECB president Mario Draghi may support the EUR. EUR/USD was supported yesterday after the news on the budget cut of the Italian budget deficit and rose to the central pivot at 1.1374. The Italian government has agreed to cut its budget deficit to 2.04% compared to 2.40% previously. For now, it anticipates the approval by the European Commission. For now, it has already crossed this level, heading towards the resistance at 1.1437. If the ECB provides hawkish comments for the euro, it will stick near this level. Otherwise, the pair will fall to the support at 1.1323.

Yesterday, Theresa May won her confidence vote. Today she will meet with the European leaders to find a solution on Brexit. That is why the headlines may bring the volatility to the cable. Bulls pushed the pair higher, the pair crossed the 1.2560 level and tested the resistance at 1.2643. If today’s negotiations turn out to be successful for May, the pair will stick above the 1.2643 level. The next resistance is placed at 1.2740. In case of negative news, it will fall towards the support at 1.2560. The next support lies at 1.2462.

Oil continues to face the uncertainties over the OPEC output cut. In case of negative news, the price for WTI will fall towards the support at $49.93. Otherwise, if the OPEC+ confirms its actions, it will rise towards the resistance at $52.23.

As for Brent, the bearish pressure will pull the crude’s price downwards to the support at $58.6. Positive news will pull it higher. The first resistance lies at $61.15.