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Old Feb 5, 2018, 3:52pm   #9
Joined Nov 2010
riki143 started this thread IMPORTANT WEEK FOR GBP, AUD AND NZD // FOREX OUTLOOK FOR FEB. 5-9
11:03 05.02.2018



Last week the US dollar index managed to close at the positive territory for the first time since the start of December. USD rallied on Friday on upbeat US jobs data. American wages rose at the fastest pace since 2009. This fueled inflation expectations and made the market price in more rate hikes. As a result, this week the American currency has a chance to get a bit higher or at least to remain supported.

USD/JPY returned from 108.30 up to 110.00. If it manages to overcome resistance at 110.45, it may recover to 200-day MA at 111.70.

The advance of EUR/USD once again stopped at 1.2500. Support lies at 1.2350 and 1.2250. German political parties still didn’t manage to form a coalition. Yet, the region’s economy is strong and there will be few events to disturb the euro. It might be a good idea to buy the euro in crosses like EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD.

GBP/USD was rejected down from 1.4280. Apart from the strong US figures, the pair was hurt by weak data from Britain’s construction sector. At the same time, traders are afraid to act ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting. There’s a spinning top candle on the weekly chart – a sign of the market’s uncertainty. Governor Mark Carney sounded upbeat recently, and some analysts think that the BoE will raise interest rates in May. If the central bank confirms such expectations, GBP.USD will get to 1.4370/1.44. A disappointment will lead the pair down to 1.3975 and 1.3830.

Apart from the BoE meeting on Thursday, the economic calendar for this week contains the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australian on Tuesday and the New Zealand’s central bank on Wednesday.

As for NZD/USD, it strengthened since the last RBNZ meeting, although the economic data became worse. The pair looks vulnerable for a decline to 0.7240 and 0.7190.

Last edited by riki143; Feb 5, 2018 at 4:26pm.
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 4:27pm   #10
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riki143 started this thread AUD/USD: BEARS ACTED RIGHT OFF THE BAT
07:52 05.02.2018

Recommendations:

BUY 0.7975

SL 0.7920

TP1 0.8075 TP2 0.8125 TP3 0.8215

On the daily chart AUD/USD, an exit of the pair out of an upward trading channel and a break of support at 88.6% and 78.6% from the last wave showed a return of initiative to bears. They met an important area of 0.7885-0.7895 convergence, a continuation of a southern campaign is impossible without breaking below it.

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On the hour chart, as the pair reached an intermediate target at 127.2% of the pattern “Crab”, the odds of a pullback increased. An update of the February low will allow counting on a realization of 161.8% target.

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Old Feb 6, 2018, 2:59pm   #11
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riki143 started this thread XAU/USD: GOLD ROSE TOO HIGH
07:08 06.02.2018

Recommendation:

SELL $1328

SL $1343

TP $1306 TP2 $1272 TP3 $1244

On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls managed to defend support at $1324-1328 an ounce. If bears succeed in another attempt to pulls the prices below this level, the risks of a pullback to $1306 and lower will increase. To continue rally towards 127.2% target of AB=CD, gold would need to rise above January high.

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On H1, a break of the upper border of an uptrend will increase the odds of the pair going to 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern. A pullback, on the other hand, will create grounds for the formation of the “Head and Shoulders”.

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Old Feb 6, 2018, 3:41pm   #12
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riki143 started this thread USD/CAD: BEARS ARE RUNNING AWAY
07:30 06.02.2018

Recommendation:

BUY 1.2510

SL 1.2455

TP1 1.261 TP2 1.272 TP3 1.285

On the daily chart, USD/CAD bulls managed to rise above the upper border of the uptrend channel. As a result, the odds of an inverted “Shark” pattern with target at 88.6% have substantially increased.

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On H1, the probability of USD/CAD pulling back to support levels at 1.2485-1.2510 and 1.2390-1.2410 increased after the pair reached 113% target of the junior “Shark” pattern. If USD/CAD renews February high, this will create grounds for going to 88.6% target of the senior “Shark” pattern.

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Old Feb 7, 2018, 1:47pm   #13
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riki143 started this thread GBP/USD IS WELCOMING A PINBAR
08:26 07.02.2018

Recommendation:

BUY 1.4005

SL 1.3950

TP1 1.4105 TP2 1.425 TP3 1.46

On the daily chart, GBP/USD bull managed to defend support at 1.3830-1.3835. As a result, the pair formed a pinbar. A successful test of its high will allow the pound to count on the uptrend’s resumption.

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On H1, GBP/USD keeps forming 1-2-3 and “Spike with reversal and acceleration”. To break the uptrend, bears need to pull the pair out of the trading channel and reach 88.6% target of the “Bat”. The odds of this scenario are not high.

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Old Feb 7, 2018, 2:31pm   #14
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riki143 started this thread USD/CHF HAS LITTLE SPACE IN THE CORRIDOR
07:30 07.02.2018

Recommendations:

BUY 0.9395 SL 0.934 TP1 0.948 TP2 0.96

SELL 0.929 SL 0.9345 TP1 0.919 TP2 0.905

On the daily chart, USD/CHF reached the interim target at 113% of the “Crab” pattern: bulls are trying to counterattack. To develop correction, they need to overcome resistance at 0.9410 and 0.9485-0.9505.

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On H1, a break of the upper border of the 0.929-0.9395 consolidation range will increase the odds of its getting to 88.6% of the inverted “Shark” pattern. On the other hand, a decline below the support at 0.9290 will lead to the resumption of the downtrend.

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Old Feb 8, 2018, 2:30pm   #15
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riki143 started this thread EUR/USD: BEARISH "THREE METHODS" PATTERN
11:51 08.02.2018

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There's a bearish "Three Methods" pattern, which has been formed under the Moving Averages. So, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the short term.

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The upper "Window" has acted as resistance, so there's a "Shooting Star" pattern. In this case, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support area pretty soon.
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Old Feb 8, 2018, 3:34pm   #16
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riki143 started this thread GBP/USD IS HEADING TOWARDS SUPPORT
11:22 08.02.2018

The price is testing the 89 Moving Average. The main intraday target is the nearest support at 1.3741. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have an upward price movement towards the 89 Moving Average.

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There's a "Pennant" pattern, so the market is likely going to achieve the closest support at 1.3804 - 1.3741. However, if a pullback from this area is on the table, bulls will probably try to reach the next resistance at 1.3834 - 1.3895.

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