Forex Analysis by rjfxpips

This is a discussion on Forex Analysis by rjfxpips within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; The week has started off bearish, this shouldn't be a surprise as bullish price action has been over extended, so ...

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Old Dec 11, 2017, 11:38pm   #1
 
8 Posts
Joined Dec 2017
Forex Analysis by rjfxpips

The week has started off bearish, this shouldn't be a surprise as bullish price action has been over extended, so a bearish reversal was due at some point. The 8MA and 18 MA are still proving to be solid supports on the daily time frame, suggesting the overall bias remains bullish. However, price failed to break the weekly key resistance 1.8000 on Friday 8th, even failing to make a high above it and the day closing as a shooting star candle. The overall week closed as a potential spinning top, which spells indecisiveness, could this be the end of GA's bullish run. Not necessarily, as we have had a few spinning tops in the last few weeks that have been followed by more bullish price action.

The weekly time frame which has been making Higher Highs followed by Higher Lows for the past year, is currently in search for a new Higher high. Previous weekly higher high dipped above the monthly key level 1.7500 but failed to break above it. Current weekly price has failed to break our weekly key level 1.8000, and could have potential have formed a new higher High. This weekly level makes for an ideal Higher High, the only other being potentially the weekly fibb 0.27% extension which has not yet been fulfilled, this being 1.8135.

With this in mind, although short term price remains bullish, trade with caution and be on the lookout for major bearish reversal opportunities. Look out for 3pin candle formation, daily MA crossover to the downside but bear in mind that the weekly close will be the most key factor, a failure to close above 1.8000, suggest the bears are back in play.

11 Dec. 17
The day has closed bearish and completed a 3Pin daily formation. This candlestick pattern could potentially mean there’s more bearish momentum still left or it could signal a major bearish reversal in search of a new weekly Higher Low, this being potentially the monthly support 1.7500. However as overall bias remains bullish, I’m looking for long opportunities with my upside targets being the weekly level 1.8000 which is also the current Higher High. A bullish reversal on the 4H chart which respects the fibb zone will be an ideal reversal alert. However, as the daily 3pin pattern on the weekly resistance could be signalling a long term change in sentiment, it’s worth waiting for bullish daily triggers before entering long (patience is key). I will enter long if a combination of the following takes place.

A bullish break back above MAs on the 4H followed by a crossover

Failure to break daily support 1.7676

Fibb zone respected by price action

A bullish daily close, MA wick rejection

Happy Trading

RJFX
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Old Dec 13, 2017, 12:42am   #2
 
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Joined Dec 2017
USDCAD Short Term & Long term View

rjfxpips started this thread Daily price still within consolidation range of around 250pips.
Click the image to open in full size.

The weekly chart below shows how the overall bias is bearish with price reversing at monthly and weekly key levels as well as a reversal at the weekly fibb zone followed by bearish momentum. After a few weeks of fail-ing to break above monthly resistance 1.2800, last week broke above it with a bullish MA wick rejection as well as an MA crossover, this means there is a high probability of price rallying up to the weekly resistance 1.3100, before continuing its bearish momentum.
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Drawing a fibb using the most recent weekly Lower high and Lower low, shows this to be a potential long term move.
Click the image to open in full size.

To sum up, expecting a bullish rally before the overal bearish bais takes over

Happy trading
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Old Dec 14, 2017, 1:24am   #3
 
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AUDUSD Analysis

rjfxpips started this thread 14/12/2017
The weekly chart shows a potential 3rd bounce of the weekly upside trend line, wouldn’t be wise trading against that. Price is potential forming a Higher Low. This region also coincides with the upside weekly fibb. Also notice how the last bounce was also on a weekly level of support.
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If the weekly closes in this manner, then the bias for the next few weeks is strongly bullish as it will be out of the Fibb zone having respected it as well as broken the weekly level 0.7575. However lets not forget there’s still 2 more trading days left in the week, a lot can happen.
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My short term upside target is the monthly level 0.7750. The entry set up on the daily is based on the daily candle bullish break of both MAs and strong break of weekly level 07575. Price might retrace back to retest the weekly level before rallying back up. Wait for retracement before entering could offer a better Risk/Reward ratio. However the previous bounce on the weekly rallied up with barely a retracement.
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Old Dec 14, 2017, 8:14pm   #4
 
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Currently the value of the pair is 0.7673 and continues its upward path. Excellent analysis
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Thanks! The following members like this post: rjfxpips
Old Dec 15, 2017, 8:54am   #5
Joined Nov 2017
AUDUSD Daily trend reversed yesterday and it's bullish now, great buying opportunity will be formed after the retracement.
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Old Dec 18, 2017, 9:17pm   #6
 
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EURJPY Analysis

rjfxpips started this thread Week commencing 17/12/17
Monthly Analysis – this whole year has been overall bullish, from March till September, each month has broken the previous month’s high. Since September, price has been consolidating in a 400pip range, struggling to break the weekly level 134.000 to the upside whilst also failing to break the monthly level 132.000 to the downside. September to November form a 3pin pattern, which could be signalling a bearish reversal. This 3pin formation on the weekly level 134.000 is also aligned with a downside golden fibb zone (0.618-0.786) on the monthly as shown below.
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The previous week failed to break above the weekly level 134.000, also failing to break below the monthly level 132.000. As shown in the screenshot below, the previous 13 weeks have failed to break above or below this range. As the market is very choppy, I will be looking for both long and short opportunities and aiming to trade within this range until a successful break out on the weekly.
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Old Dec 21, 2017, 1:46am   #7
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Eur/jpy

Excellent rally on the EURJPY, but it has not confirmed the breakout above the 134.47 level yet. To the upside, the next resistance level could be the 136.00 level.
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Old Dec 21, 2017, 2:41am   #8
gka
Joined Dec 2017
I am using the Volatility Response Model (VRM) to predict support and resistance levels and short and long term trend channels. See the documents at the start of the thread "Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics" in this Forex forum for a description of the VRM and the chart format.

Here is my chart for EURJPY. The EURJPY is having difficulty staying above the long term trend channel middle at 133.17 so I am bearish on this FX pair.
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Old Dec 22, 2017, 11:30pm   #9
Joined Apr 2014
Audusd

The AUDUSD breaks above its 200 day EMA at the 0.7700 level. The zone has been a very good resistance, but now that it has been broken, the pair may try to visit the 0.7800 zone.
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