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Old Nov 10, 2017, 12:51pm   #113
 
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TifiaFX started this thread AUD/USD: RBA is in indecision
10/11/2017
Overview and dynamics

After earlier in the week the leadership of the RBA again decided to leave the key rate at 1.5%, the Australian dollar remains under pressure. The rate remains at this level since August 2016, and the central bank will most likely leave it unchanged until mid-2018.
The longer the RBA will remain idle, while many central banks raise interest rates, the stronger the Australian dollar will fall.
Despite the fact that Australian economic data draws a contradictory picture, the RBA is confident in accelerating GDP growth over time. In the coming years, the central bank expects to accelerate the annual GDP growth to 3%, which is almost double the current rate. The Australian economy for the current year has created more than a million jobs, which led to a drop in unemployment. At the same time, indicators of conditions for doing business and business confidence have peaked in the last ten years.
On the other hand, inflation data for the 3rd quarter were not particularly impressive. Core inflation, according to the RBA, will not reach the lower end of the target range of 2% -3% until mid-2019. Retail sales in the middle of the year fell sharply, and a slowdown in house prices could undermine consumer confidence.
Thus, the Reserve Bank of Australia is in a difficult situation. It can not raise interest rates with weak inflation and high levels of consumer debt, but it can not reduce them because of fears of increasing risks of destabilizing the financial system.
Many economists believe that the RBA will return to the issue of raising the interest rate in the country not earlier than mid-2019.
And this, amid a large-scale strengthening of the US dollar due to the expectations of a phased tightening of monetary policy in the US, creates the conditions for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.
Support levels: 0.7650, 0.7600, 0.7570, 0.7500, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7720, 0.7755, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980


Trading scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7710. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7570, 0.7500, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7710. Stop-Loss 0.7610. Take-Profit 0.7720, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980
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Old Nov 13, 2017, 1:49pm   #114
 
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TifiaFX started this thread Brent: Support and resistance levels
13/11/2017


There remains a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature. If growth continues, the next target is resistance level 65.30 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are still on the buyers side. Long positions are preferred.
Consideration of short positions is possible after the return of the price under the support level of 62.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The immediate goal is the support level of 59.30 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
And only if the price returns to the level of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will the risks of resuming the downtrend increase with targets at 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).
Support levels: 62.90, 62.35, 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 59.30, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00


Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 62.30. Stop-Loss 64.50. Take-Profit 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop 64.50. Stop-Loss 62.30. Take-Profit 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

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Old Nov 14, 2017, 12:44pm   #115
 
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TifiaFX started this thread GBP/USD: inflation rate in the UK fell slightly
14/11/2017
Current dynamics

After the data on inflation in the UK were released at the beginning of today's European session, the pound declined.
According to the British Office of National Statistics, inflation in the UK in October was 3% (forecast was + 3.1%), which indicates the possible end of a sharp acceleration in price growth caused by the collapse of the British pound after last year's referendum on UK membership in the EU.
Core inflation also failed to reach the forecast of 2.9%, amounting, as in September, 2.7%.
Nevertheless, inflation is still much higher than the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than a salary, which means that consumer spending will remain low-key.
This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.
The pound continues to remain under pressure also against the backdrop of the crisis that is ripening in the UK government. As you know, several dozen members of the British Parliament favored the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May. At the weekend, the Sunday Times reported that 40 parliamentarians agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Theresa May. The Brexit talks resumed last week, and, according to EU officials, Britain's hopes for the progress of negotiations in December are weakening.
Thus, the problems in the negotiations of the UK with the EU on Brexit, political uncertainty in the country, based on growing dissatisfaction with the activities of the Prime Minister of the UK, as well as the Bank of England's restrained attitude to the issue of further tightening of monetary policy (as is known earlier this month, the Bank of England decided to raise the key interest rate by 0.25% and planned two more rate hikes in the next two years) create a negative background for the pound. To this, it should be added that last week the European Commission lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the UK this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the background of Brexit.
At the same time, the dollar is recovering today. As it became known, the administration of President Trump will not support the law on taxes, if it provides for a corporate tax rate of over 20%. This was announced the day before by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.


Support levels: 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3125. Take-Profit 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3125. Stop-Loss 1.3080. Take-Profit 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100
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Old Nov 15, 2017, 12:38pm   #116
 
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TifiaFX started this thread AUD/USD: Downtrend prevails
15/11/2017
Current dynamics

Weak data on the growth of wages in Australia, as well as on the level of consumer confidence, published at the beginning of today's Asian trading session, "knocked" the Australian dollar, which fell 4-month low against the US dollar.
According to data provided on Wednesday, wage growth in the 3rd quarter was 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (the forecast was + 0.7%).
The Australian dollar remained today almost the only major world currency, declining against the US dollar. And so far, the fundamental background for the Australian dollar remains negative.
We are waiting for data from the USA today. It is expected that the growth in retail sales in October was 0% (against growth of 1.6% in September). The consumer price index, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation and changing consumer preferences, is also expected with a value just above 0 (+ 0.1%).
These are very weak values. If the weak data on inflation in the US are confirmed, the US dollar will continue to decline. In this case, an upward correction in the AUD/USD is likely.
Recall that the publication of macro data from the United States is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT).

Support and resistance levels
AUD / USD continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which runs near the support level of 0.7535 (balance line and EMA200 on the daily chart in April 2017).
AUD / USD is below the key resistance levels 0.7710 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7740 (EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Downward dynamics prevails. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts are on the side of sellers.
In the event of further downside, the targets will be support levels of 0.7535, 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014; the minimum of the wave is near 0.6830 level). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 will return the AUD / USD into a global downtrend that began in July 2014.
You can proceed to consideration of long positions only after AUD / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 0.7740 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). The growth targets in this case will be the levels of 0.7850 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 0.7885 (October highs), 0.7980 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7660. Take-Profit 0.7580, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7660. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

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Old Nov 16, 2017, 1:05pm   #117
 
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TifiaFX started this thread GBP/USD: the pair is trading in the range
16/11/2017
Current dynamics

Unexpectedly grown in October, retail sales have supported the British currency.
According to data published on Thursday, retail sales in the UK increased 0.3% in October (the forecast was + 0.1%). In September, as compared to August, sales decreased by 0.7%. It is noteworthy that the most significant increase in October was the sale of second-hand items. Whether the British are moving to a more economical regime due to the weakening of the pound against the background of rising inflation, whether the residents of the UK have grown interested in antiques in terms of its historical value, which, on the contrary, indicates an increase in their welfare. However, compared to October last year, retail sales for the first time since early 2013 decreased (by 0.3%).
This year, the growth of the UK economy slowed significantly, as consumer expenses are under pressure exerted by inflation accelerated as a result of the fall of the pound after voting for an exit from the EU.
Last week, the European Commission lowered its forecast for UK GDP growth this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the backdrop of Brexit.
The statistics presented on Tuesday showed that inflation in the UK in October, as in September, rose to 3.0%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than salaries, which mean that consumer spending will remain low-key. This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.
The pound continues to remain under pressure, even though at the beginning of the month the Bank of England raised its interest rate due to a galloping inflation after the referendum on Brexit. Investors do not believe in the possibility of accelerating the growth of the British economy, as evidenced by the fall, the second week, in a row of the British stock index FTSE. And in the leaders of the fall are shares of British companies that build their business inside the country.
The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has repeatedly said that the central bank will monitor how the economy reacts to the rate hike in November. It is likely that the Bank of England will not raise rates again in the near future, given the uncertainty associated with Brexit.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is restoring its positions today in the foreign exchange market. Macroeconomic indicators remain positive, and growth continues in the corporate sector of the US economy.
Today, the US House of Representatives must pass a vote on the tax bill. Investors will closely monitor the results of voting. Any delay or reduction in the scale of tax cuts can damage to the dollar.
Also today we are waiting for the publication of important macro statistics from the USA. Among the data - primary applications for unemployment (changes in the number of applications for the past week), indices of import / export prices for October, the volume of industrial production and use of production capacities for October. If the US strong macro statistics comes out, the dollar will continue to recover.
The publication of the data is scheduled for 13:30, 14:15 (GMT), and at 14:00, 14:10, 14:30, 17:30, speeches of the representatives of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve will begin, which again may cause volatility in the pound trade and the dollar, if they touch upon the subject of monetary policy of the central banks of the United Kingdom and the United States.

Support levels: 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3140. Stop-Loss 1.3220. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3220. Stop-Loss 1.3140. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

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Old Nov 17, 2017, 1:07pm   #118
 
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TifiaFX started this thread Brent: the price may stay in the range until the end of November
17/11/2017
Current dynamics

The third day, oil is trading in the range after a sharp decline in the price at the beginning of the week. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.21%, to 61.23 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's trading day was close to the level of 61.00 dollars per barrel.
Nevertheless, at the beginning of today's European session, the price is close to 62.00, through which there is a strong short-term resistance level (200-period moving average on the 1-hour chart).
Since the opening of the trading day, the price has risen by 1.00 dollars. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that on the eve of the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of this month, prices may remain in the range. It is expected that the meeting will extend the deal to reduce oil production.
As the UAE oil minister said earlier this week, "there is a potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the surplus on the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement," the minister added.
Today (17:00 GMT), the report of the Baker Hughes oilfield services company on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy, will be published and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. The current value of the indicator is 738 active drilling rigs.
If the number of drilling rigs increases, this will indicate the next recovery of oil production in the United States. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units).

Support and resistance levels
A strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force and keeps prices from a deeper decline. The current decrease should be considered so far as correctional.
In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be resistance level 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart). The growth above the level of 65.30 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.30 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark.
If the decline resumes, then up to the support level of 59.85 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), it should still be considered only as a correction in the uptrend.
Long positions are preferred.
Consideration of short medium-term positions is possible after the price returns under support level 59.85. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 61.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The medium-term targets in this case will be the support levels of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (August lows), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).
Support levels: 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Resistance levels: 62.00, 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00


Trading scenarios
Sell Stop 60.80. Stop-Loss 62.20. Take-Profit 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00
Buy Stop. 62.20. Stop-Loss 60.80. Take-Profit 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00
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Old Nov 20, 2017, 1:11pm   #119
 
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TifiaFX started this thread GBP/USD: the range remains relevant
20/11/2017
Current dynamics

Published in the press on the weekend news, that German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to create a ruling coalition, caused a surge in volatility at the opening of trading on Monday.
Euro, as well as European stock indexes, above all, DAX (the leading German index), fell at the opening of today. The fall of the euro against the pound in the pair EUR / GBP caused, on the contrary, the growth of the pound, including against the dollar. The pound gets support also against the backdrop of the fact that British Prime Minister Theresa May will most likely convince the government to support the increase in the payment to the European Union for Brexit.
As you know, the financial question is the cornerstone in the Brexit process. In September, British Prime Minister Theresa May promised that Britain would pay its share in the EU budget until 2020. But the EU authorities said that they still do not have a clear understanding of whether the UK will fully fulfill its obligations. The final amount of payments on Brexit may exceed 60 billion euros. It even mentions a figure of 100 billion euros, but representatives of the UK dispute this figure.
Last week, the representative of the EU in Brexit talks from the EU Michelle Barbier stated that it would be time for Britain to clarify the situation on the issues of "exit" from the bloc.
The draft budget will be presented on Wednesday. UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond will present his plan for taxes and expenses, which, apparently, will be met with approval. On this positive for the pound background, the GBP / USD pair can update the local highs of the previous month near the 1.3335 mark.
Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the pound will remain negative until the details of the UK's exit procedure from the EU are finally understood.
Investors will also be interested in data on public sector borrowing, which will be presented on Tuesday (09:30 GMT), as well as the volume of capital investments of British companies in the third quarter, which will be known on Thursday (09:30 GMT). Also at this time on Thursday will be published the second estimate of GDP growth in the UK in the third quarter. Economists expect that in the third quarter GDP grew by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, which coincides with a preliminary estimate.
Also volatility in the financial markets may rise on Wednesday, after at 18:00 (GMT) will be published "FOMC minutes". In the published minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, investors will seek signals on the future of US monetary policy. The publication of the protocol is extremely important for determining the course of the current policy of the Fed and the prospects for raising the interest rate in the United States. According to interest rate futures, the probability of a rate hike in December in the US is above 90%.
Economists expect that the US labor market situation will continue to improve, and inflation will rise to a target level of 2%, which will force the Fed to raise the key interest rate four times next year.
And this is the strongest factor for the growth of the dollar, including in the pair GBP / USD.
Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3230. Stop-Loss 1.3280. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.3280. Stop-Loss 1.3230. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3400, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

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Old Nov 21, 2017, 11:48am   #120
 
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TifiaFX started this thread NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited
21/11/2017
Current dynamics

The large-scale decline in the New Zealand dollar, which began in August, continues. An additional downward impulse to the New Zealand currency was given by the general elections held in late September in New Zealand, as a result of which the ruling conservative party was defeated. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. First of all, this refers to the improvement of the situation on the labor market of the country. For example, unemployment in the 3rd quarter fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis.
It is still too early to say what adjustments the new government will make to the earlier forecasts. Nevertheless, a survey of business circles conducted earlier this month in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The new government of New Zealand intends to reassess the RBNZ policy. Now the decision-making in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, whereas the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.
As a result of the meeting of the RB of New Zealand held in early November, the interest rate was maintained at the current level of 1.75%.
According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.
Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.
On the other hand, the US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market both the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against expectations of a gradual increase in the rate of the Fed. According to some economists, the Fed can raise the rate not three, but four times in 2018.
Fundamental factors support the further reduction of the NZD / USD pair.
From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -3.5% (against the previous value of -1.0%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products will harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.

Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6775
Resistance levels: 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270


Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6830. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6775, 0.6700
Buy Stop 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7100

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