DrDulya Market Analysis

Guys, what are your thoughts about gold. From my point of view now is the high time to buy gold. Below you can read my opinion.
Gold is the second consecutive month became the most profitable investment. If the investor's income in January this precious metal was 7.2%, in February - already 7.7%. At the same time investing in silver would bring the total 1.57%.
Investors turned to gold because of despair that now prevails in the global market confusion. Most economies falls, even the US and China. The dollar, which has long been a tool of avoiding risks, ceded his position in gold. This metal is considered the best insurance and private investors and the central banks of various countries. This pushes up the price of gold.
In the coming year, the global economy is unlikely to be corrected, and hence the price of gold as a protective asset will rise.

What do you think about this?

Can't go wrong with gold really. Always holds good value, never rises or falls sharply but it doesn't pay a dividend as do stocks. In times of crisis then out of stocks and into gold. Wait for the crisis to blow over and back into stocks.

Gold is malleable and shiny, making it a good metalworking material. Chemically speaking, gold is a transition metal. Transition metals are unique, because they can bond with other elements using not just their outermost shell of electrons. So my opinion about gold for now is very in demand in the market and very great when you are new in investments. So if you are going to invest much better to start with this.

Iron ore has increased by 19%

Iron ore with 62 percent content of the metal have soared in price on the opening of trading on March 9. Prices rose by 19%, and is now one ton of ore is priced at $63.79 per ton. Earlier this year, a ton of iron ore cost $39.51 per ton, which is 46% cheaper than today's price level.
The price could rise at least for a major accident at Vale mining company, which has no available funds for repairs. And the company's government has already announced its desire to sell the production of emergency to cover their debts. Following this, it is necessary to take into account the end of the Chinese holidays. After holidays we can see a seasonal increase in demand for metals.

Tata Motors stock up 40% in a month.

Shares of Tata Motors Ltd have zoomed over 40% since 11 February, reversing a streak of underperformance for the stock which was battered due to concerns around its domestic performance and fears that a slowdown in China will hit sales of its Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) unit. Now, investors seem to be taking a different view. So what’s changed?

CHY exchange rate falls after news of tightening foreign exchange transactions

Central Bank of China has developed a new tax rules for foreign exchange transactions, which led to a decrease in value of the yuan by 0.26% against the dollar. This is the biggest drop in the last two months. People's Bank of China hopes to reduce currency speculation, which are the difference of the rate on the mainland and offshore.

The initial rate of fees on foreign currency transactions - called the Tobin tax after the awarding of the Nobel Prize James Tobin - may be zero, before the adoption of the final innovation. The tax will be designed so as to be able to conduct lawful currency transactions, such as hedges, for targeted currency speculation.

"Duty bad impact on market sentiment and start some panic among investors, and this again shows the drawbacks to monitor the forex market and limit capital outflows," Andy Ji, a strategist at Forex market from Singapore and economist at Bank of Australia.

Tax on foreign exchange transactions will be based on increasing the role of market forces in the world's second largest economy, as well as in China's quest to secure the yuan as a global reserve currency. It is expected that the yuan will be included in a backup currency basket of the International Monetary Fund, in October this year.

The new rules will take effect only after approval by the Chinese government.

The People's Bank of China today set the value of the yuan against the dollar to a mark - 6.5079, is 0.26% worse than yesterday's performance. Maximum daily fluctuations may not exceed 2%, both in bull and bear currency movements.

Gap (the gap) between the courses in the country and in offshore areas, amounted to about 0.07%, far below the 2.9% in January this year.

It is also considered another reason for reducing the value of the yuan. Zhou Hao, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore, said: "Today, the weakening of currencies in high places may indicate a reluctance of the Chinese People's Bank to try to maintain the yuan, which could lead to a prolonged bearish trend."

The greatest stock market crash ahead

One of the most well-known analyst in the US economy, Harry Dent, published a small article that reads like a solemn warning to investors. I think that a brief retelling of this article will be interesting for you.

According to Harry Dent, American stock markets were inflated over the past eight years. And the peak of this action was passed in May 2015. And the pattern of further movement in the markets will look like, as shown in the chart.



When the Fed abandoned the program of quantitative easing in 2014, in a strange way volatility in the markets immediately fell to its lowest level. But what is strange is that when the printing press was off the driver of growth stock bubble disappeared? And the situation was assessed correctly. Confirmation thoughts Harry Dent appeared in August last year. It was then that the first signs of sliding stock markets around the world. One by one, all the global indices slipped growth peaks. Dow Transports - went through the peak in November 2014. Dow Utilities Index in January 2015. The German index DAX and Britain's FTSE in April 2015. The US indices Securities Dow and S&P500 in May 2015. The Chinese Shanghai Composite index in June 2015 the Nasdaq indices, Biotech and the Russell 2000 slipped growth peaks in July 2015. Japan's Nikkei was there in August 2015.

And because noone sounded the alarm at the time when the Shanghai market fell by 45% in just 2.5 months. But the same thing happened before the Great Depression in 1929, with an index Dow. But this is not an isolated case. Securities biotech fell in price by 40% in February 2016. Capitalization of the leading banks in the world is breaking. Few people know that Deutsche Bank has depreciated by 59% from its peak growth in 2015. A German bank was more expensive than it is now, at 89% in 2008. What's going on with the Italian banking sector - it is better not to mention.

Just compare the worth all this with how the dotcom bubble bursting in 2000.



Strange, but economists do not want to notice the inflatable bladders. Do not overlook them, and politics. When everything is stable, they say it is their merit. If the market starts to crumble, they simply accuse their predecessors.
After all these facts Harry Dent come to only one conclusion. Nearing the second wave S&P 500 index collapsing below 1810. And the Dow may go below the levels of 6.000-5.500 points. The fall almost tripled. And all this will happen no later than the second half of 2017.
In short, according to the analysis of Harry Dent, then we'll see the greatest stock collapse in the history of mankind.

Also the most relevant news you can find here http://www.cityfalcon.com/watchlists?assets=SP500, DOW JONES, NASDAQ

USD has weakened to all currencies of the world

After a sharp change in the Fed's rhetoric, at the end of the two-day meeting in March, there was the inevitable weakening of the dollar to all world currencies. As you know, in the beginning of the year, the Fed had plans for raising the refinancing rate four times. Now the situation has changed and now it is conducted only on two upcoming enhancements.

Such Fed's actions have become a signal for investors to understand what the market is planned preparation for the reduced rate. The basis for this assumption was compiled on March 16 about inflation, suggesting a decrease in the growth rate of consumer prices from 1.4% to 1.0%.
Against this background, and also noted the reduction of industrial production, the rate of decline is increased from 0.7% to 1.0%. Therefore, for investors it becomes apparent that there is a gradual deterioration of the macroeconomic dynamics that appears to reduce the growth estimates for the economy announced by the Fed.

The main reason for the fall of the American currency is just forecasts, voiced by the Fed. The decision of the US central bank suggested that in the near future the dollar will continue weakening. At the moment, investors and participants of currency exchanges on the best to buy Canadian dollars, Norwegian kroner or Russian rubles, which considerably strengthened in recent days not only due to the decision of the Federal Reserve in the US monetary policy, but also because of the current term, crude oil prices.

It should be noted that the strengthening of oil prices is not only against the background of a falling dollar, but also in anticipation of positive news about the forthcoming decision on the agreement, which was w reached about freezing the volume of "black gold" production Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela.

Tata Motors Ltd (TTM) has an ongoing P/E of 8.56, which indicates that it is highly undervalued. On watch for clear above 27.51.

DrDulya said:

After a sharp change in the Fed's rhetoric, at the end of the two-day meeting in March, there was the inevitable weakening of the dollar to all world currencies. As you know, in the beginning of the year, the Fed had plans for raising the refinancing rate four times. Now the situation has changed and now it is conducted only on two upcoming enhancements.

Such Fed's actions have become a signal for investors to understand what the market is planned preparation for the reduced rate. The basis for this assumption was compiled on March 16 about inflation, suggesting a decrease in the growth rate of consumer prices from 1.4% to 1.0%.
Against this background, and also noted the reduction of industrial production, the rate of decline is increased from 0.7% to 1.0%. Therefore, for investors it becomes apparent that there is a gradual deterioration of the macroeconomic dynamics that appears to reduce the growth estimates for the economy announced by the Fed.

The main reason for the fall of the American currency is just forecasts, voiced by the Fed. The decision of the US central bank suggested that in the near future the dollar will continue weakening. At the moment, investors and participants of currency exchanges on the best to buy Canadian dollars, Norwegian kroner or Russian rubles, which considerably strengthened in recent days not only due to the decision of the Federal Reserve in the US monetary policy, but also because of the current term, crude oil prices.

It should be noted that the strengthening of oil prices is not only against the background of a falling dollar, but also in anticipation of positive news about the forthcoming decision on the agreement, which was w reached about freezing the volume of "black gold" production Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the input. So should we expect Dollar weakening will extend and we'll see EUR/USD rising to 1.15-1.20??

DrDulya said:

Guys, what are your thoughts about gold. From my point of view now is the high time to buy gold. Below you can read my opinion.
Gold is the second consecutive month became the most profitable investment. If the investor's income in January this precious metal was 7.2%, in February - already 7.7%. At the same time investing in silver would bring the total 1.57%.
Investors turned to gold because of despair that now prevails in the global market confusion. Most economies falls, even the US and China. The dollar, which has long been a tool of avoiding risks, ceded his position in gold. This metal is considered the best insurance and private investors and the central banks of various countries. This pushes up the price of gold.
In the coming year, the global economy is unlikely to be corrected, and hence the price of gold as a protective asset will rise.

What do you think about this?

Click to expand...

Here are my thoughts on gold. I am the president of a small mining / exploration company in the Sierra Nevada Mts. The easy gold to get is mostly gone. Mining requires expensive permitting and exploration at large risk to capitol. There are many environmental hurdles to get through that can take years. We process 50 cubic yards of pay gravels to get one ounce of gold. At today's gold prices that figures out to $20 per cubic yard. That is considered very good in the mining business but gravels that rich are hard to find. This is after overburden is removed at our expense and then the ground must be restored after the mining is done. Raw gold over 10 mesh ( 1/10 in ) sells for higher prices than spot. Nuggets can go for hundreds or thousands of dollars over spot. Gold will only increase in dollar terms over the long run and we try not to get too caught up in month to month fluctuations. Stay away from gold etf's and buy physical gold. Remember, you are holding gold as a safe haven against all types of bad things that may occur.

platinumtrade said:

Here are my thoughts on gold. I am the president of a small mining / exploration company in the Sierra Nevada Mts. The easy gold to get is mostly gone. Mining requires expensive permitting and exploration at large risk to capitol. There are many environmental hurdles to get through that can take years. We process 50 cubic yards of pay gravels to get one ounce of gold. At today's gold prices that figures out to $20 per cubic yard. That is considered very good in the mining business but gravels that rich are hard to find. This is after overburden is removed at our expense and then the ground must be restored after the mining is done. Raw gold over 10 mesh ( 1/10 in ) sells for higher prices than spot. Nuggets can go for hundreds or thousands of dollars over spot. Gold will only increase in dollar terms over the long run and we try not to get too caught up in month to month fluctuations. Stay away from gold etf's and buy physical gold. Remember, you are holding gold as a safe haven against all types of bad things that may occur.

Click to expand...

Could you share, why should one avoid Gold ETFs? As many think, We can easily buy and sell gold ETfs from our trading account where as buying physical gold easy but selling will be not as easy as ETFs.

Insursi said:

Could you share, why should one avoid Gold ETFs? As many think, We can easily buy and sell gold ETfs from our trading account where as buying physical gold easy but selling will be not as easy as ETFs.

Click to expand...

I think gold ETF's are less safe in the event of a global disaster or some type of event. They are highly levered with only a very small amount of gold backing them. Physical gold is scarce regardless of what some may say. Many world banks are loading up on physical because they know that there is nothing substantial backing paper gold. Some countries have asked for the return of their gold in storage by the Fed but have been told to wait for years. What does that tell you? The paper gold is good for traders with short term horizons that have no intention of long term holdings. Those paper shares would become worthless if there is an economic collapse or something worse. People that buy and sell paper gold are traders with short term thinking. They believe that governments will always have control of the markets. I don't. Give me the real thing anytime.

gerryg said:

Thanks for the input. So should we expect Dollar weakening will extend and we'll see EUR/USD rising to 1.15-1.20??

Click to expand...

Well,that depends on the euros relative strength or weakness as well ......

It takes 2 to tango in forex......

heres the G8 year so far

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...-basic-ideas-strategies-1744.html#post2722996

sure.......the green usd is cycling south at moment....:innocent:....but red gbp and turquoise NZD are struggling worse ........don't bank on freefall ..........the usd is one strong SOB

and as for the Blue Euro ..........its not exactly setting the world alight either .??..although the support level in early march is encouraging ........

N:smart:

NZDUSD
Short-Term: SELL
Long-Term: Strong BUY
An interesting turn of events unfolded in the New Zealand Dollar and the US Dollar this week. What we may be seeing is a possible break of the ascending triangle we have been observing from October.

Gold dips below $1,250

Gold prices fell today dropping below the key psychological level of $1,250 an ounce as investors cashed in on recent gains for the precious metal.

sfnssie said:

Gold prices fell today dropping below the key psychological level of $1,250 an ounce as investors cashed in on recent gains for the precious metal.

Click to expand...

All silly in my opinion. Selling gold is betting the future is rosy for central banks. LOL. There are better things to trade. Hold physical gold and don't watch the fluctuations. Instead, take a long term view. Let us see where gold is priced ten years from now.

platinumtrade said:

Here are my thoughts on gold. I am the president of a small mining / exploration company in the Sierra Nevada Mts. The easy gold to get is mostly gone. Mining requires expensive permitting and exploration at large risk to capitol. There are many environmental hurdles to get through that can take years. We process 50 cubic yards of pay gravels to get one ounce of gold. At today's gold prices that figures out to $20 per cubic yard. That is considered very good in the mining business but gravels that rich are hard to find. This is after overburden is removed at our expense and then the ground must be restored after the mining is done. Raw gold over 10 mesh ( 1/10 in ) sells for higher prices than spot. Nuggets can go for hundreds or thousands of dollars over spot. Gold will only increase in dollar terms over the long run and we try not to get too caught up in month to month fluctuations. Stay away from gold etf's and buy physical gold. Remember, you are holding gold as a safe haven against all types of bad things that may occur.

Click to expand...

Interesting occupation. Ever done any plant or tree sampling?
http://www.popsci.com/article/science/how-use-trees-prospect-gold

counter_violent said:

Interesting occupation. Ever done any plant or tree sampling?
http://www.popsci.com/article/science/how-use-trees-prospect-gold

Click to expand...

Nope. We dig big holes with excavators.