Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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Old Oct 30, 2017, 1:42pm   #473
 
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liteForex GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD grew and almost reached the middle line of Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci corrections around 1.3175.

This week the key events for the instrument are the meeting of Fed and of Bank of England. The US regulator is not expected to change the monetary policy. However, the Bank of England can increase the interest rate, but not for sure. On the one hand, the growth of GDP and inflation in the third quarter makes the regulator to cut the monetary stimulation. On the other hand, a number of BOE officials, such as Jon Cunliffe from, declare the total state of the UK economy insufficient for the interest rate increase.

The question is open, and any of the BOE decisions will cause significant price movement.

Support and resistance

Technically the price reached the level of 1.3175 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci correction 23.6%). If the price is set above this level the further movement to the area of 1.3270 (correction 38.2%) is possible. In case of rebound at the level of 1.3175 the fall to the level of 1.3100 and further to October lows at the area of 1.3030 is possible.
Technical indicators readings are mixed. Stochastic has entered the overbought area, which can reflect the possibility of the reversal. On the other hand, MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 1.3175, 1.3270, 1.3340.
Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2950.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.3140 with the targets at 1.3100, 1.3030 and stop loss at 1.3180.
The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3175 will make long positions relevant with the targets at 1.3270, 1.3340 and stop loss at 1.3155.

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Old Oct 31, 2017, 2:40pm   #474
 
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liteForex EUR/USD: the market is waiting for tomorrow’s PMI and Fed’s meeting

Current trend

Today the pair was slowly being corrected from the level of 1.1657 (Murray [3/8]), euro is under pressure of poor inflation data. In October the preliminary Consumer Price Index decreased from 1.5% to 1.4%, and Core Index decreased from 1.3% to 1.1%. However, the correction is not strong due to the positive EU GDP data. In the third quarter the index grew from 2.3% to 2.5% YoY.

The market positively reacted to Donald Trump’s decision to make Jerome Powell the new head of Fed, according to Reuters and CNN. Unlike Janet Yellen, who was Professor of Economics, Powell was an investment banker, which makes the investors to hope that he will soften Dodd–Frank Consumer Protection Act, passed in 2010 and restricted the bank trading in the stock market significantly.

Support and resistance

Since Monday the price is trading within the range of 1.1657 (Murray [3/8]) and 1.1596 (Murray [2/8]). It can stay within the range until October USA manufacturing PMI publication and Fed’s meeting results (the interest rate is not expected to be risen. After the breakout of the level of 1.1657 the price can return within the main channel of 1.1790–1.1657. The key level for the “bears” is 1.1596 (Murray [2/8]), after the breakdown the correction can develop to the main support level at Murray 1.1475 ([0/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1780.
Support levels: 1.1596, 1.1535, 1.1475.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1718, 1.1779 and stop loss at 1.1625.
The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1596 can lead to the fall to the levels of 1.1535 and 1.1475. Stop loss is near the level of 1.1630.

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Old Nov 3, 2017, 7:43am   #475
 
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liteForex AUD/USD: Australian dollar returned to reduction

Current trend

Today AUD is reducing against US dollar moving away from local maximums updated yesterday. The instrument is under pressure from not so optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Australian and expected strong labor market releases from the USA at 14:30 (GMT+2).

AiG PMI dropped from 52.1 to 51.4 points in September which was worse that expected by the analysts. The volumes of retail sales in September remained on zero level after reduction by 0.5% MoM in August. Experts hopes the indicator would grow by 0.4%.
US dollar receives support from the data on jobless claims published yesterday. They were interesting for the investors in view of the upcoming report on the labor market. The number of initial claims during the week that ended on October 27, dropped from 234K to 229K against the expected growth to 235K.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate reduction. The price range is narrowing. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic also preserves a stable upward direction but is approaching the level of 80.
Resistance levels: 0.7697, 0.7717, 0.7731, 0.7769.
Support levels: 0.7664, 0.7623, 0.7586.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7700 with targets at 0.7750, 0.7769 or 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7664. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down the level of 0.7664 may give the “bears” a way to 0.7600 or 0.7580 with stop-loss at 0.7700. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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Old Nov 7, 2017, 9:50am   #476
 
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liteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes have been growing for the third trading session in a row. Within a day Brent oil gained 3.12% and rose to 64.05 (a 28-month maximum).
Oil prices are supported by several factors. First of all, it is the restoration of supply and demand balance in the oil market in view of fulfillment of production reduction obligations by OPEC states. This was announced by the former OPEC Secretary General Rene Ortiz. Oil market is also supported by the new stage of tension in the Middle East. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen is developing, and on Saturday Yemen launched a missile at Riyadh.
Today market players are waiting for initial API data on weekly changes in US oil stocks (23:30 GMT+2). If the API report shows serious reduction of oil stocks, the rate of Brent may receive additional support and update its maximums. Official data by the US Department of Energy on oil stocks and the level of production will be released tomorrow (17:30 GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show the preservation of the upward trend. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively growing in the positive zone forming a buy signal. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards.
Support levels: 63.59, 62.40, 61.75.
Resistance levels: 64.30, 65.00, 66.00.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 64.30 with target at 65.00-66.00 and stop-loss at 63.80.
Sell positions should be opened below the level of 63.59 with target at 62.40 and stop-loss at 63.90.

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Old Nov 8, 2017, 1:31pm   #477
 
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liteForex GBP/USD: Patrick Harker pushed the pair downwards

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD pair entered the channel 1.3183 (Murray [4/8])–1.3122 (Murray [3/8]).

On Tuesday the price was affected by controversial factors. Pound was under the pressure of poor UK BRC Retail Sales data. In October the index decreased by 1.0% due to clothing sales. British retailers fear that the high inflation level (3.0%) can affect the soon Christmas sales.

British currency was supported by the Trade low data publications. The low will be implemented after the end of Brexit, and according to it the Government plans to make a number of contracts with the key trading EU, US and Australian partners, and help the companies which have contracts with foreign governments.
Today the price went down after the Philadelphia Fed’ head Patrick Harker commentaries, who noted that Fed didn’t see any reasons not to increase the interest rate on December meeting, and to increase the rate gradually next year, if the inflation allowed it.

Support and resistance

The pair is testing the lower border of the range 1.3122 (Murray [3/8]) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The consolidation of the price below will let the price fall to the levels of 1.3061 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.3000 (Murray [1/8]). Otherwise the price can return to the center resistance level of 1.3183 (Murray [4/8]), but it can significantly grow to the levels of 1.3245 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.3305 (Murray [6/8]) only after the breakout of this level. According to reversed downwards Stochastic, the fall is possible.

Resistance levels: 1.3183, 1.3244, 1.3305.
Support levels: 1.3122, 1.3061, 1.3000.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.3122 with the targets at 1.3061 and 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.3140.
The rebound of the price from the level of 1.3122 will make short term long positions actual with the target at 1.3183 and further increase of the long positions volumes to the levels of 1.3244 and 1.3305. Stop loss is 1.3090.

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Old Nov 9, 2017, 9:23am   #478
 
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liteForex USD/CAD: the pair’s dynamics is flat

Current trend

Yesterday USD was falling against Canadian currency, being under pressure after positive Canadian Building dynamics statistics publication. Housing Starts index grew by 222.8K in October against the corresponding month of 2016, while analysts expected the growth only to 210.0K. Building Permits grew by 3.8% MoM in September after the fall by 5.1% MoM in August, while experts suggested the fall by 0.2% MoM.
Today the pair is insignificantly growing, waiting for the new rivers to appear on the market. There is no key US and Canadian macroeconomic release expected today, so the volatility will stay low. September New Housing Price Index is due at 15:30 (GMT+2) in Canada. Initial Jobless Claims publication is due at the same time in the USA.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the mixed dynamics appearance with low activity level. It’s better to use channel trading strategy.
MACD still keeps steady downward trend and sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s possible to keep current short positions, but not to open new ones.
Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards, reflecting that the pair is oversold in the short or very short term. It’s better to wait for the confirmation of this “bullish” signal.
Resistance levels: 1.2751, 1.2800, 1.2858, 1.2915.
Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2639, 1.2597, 1.2537.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal at the level of 1.2700 and breakout of the level of 1.2751 with the targets at 1.2858 or 1.2900. Stop loss is 1.2700. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

The steady breakdown 1.2700 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.2600. Stop loss is 1.2751. Implementation period: 2 days.

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Old Nov 13, 2017, 1:02pm   #479
 
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liteForex XAU/USD: Murrey analysis

Current trend

On the D1 chart the price failed to consolidate above the level of 1281.25 ([2/8]) and has entered the range of 1281.25 ([2/8])-1265.63 ([1/8]) in which it has been trading for over a week. According to Stochastic that has reversed downwards, in the near future the price may drop to 1265.63 ([1/8]) once again and further go down to 1250.00 ([0/8]). Moreover, the price is under pressure from the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The key level for the “bulls” seems to be 1281.25. In case the price consolidates above it, growth may continue to the border of the channel at 1296.88 ([3/8]) and further to the central level at 1312.50 ([4/8]).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1265.63 ([1/8]), 1250.00 ([0/8]), 1234.38 ([-1/8]).
Resistance levels: 1281.25 ([2/8]), 1296.88 ([3/8]), 1312.50 ([4/8]).

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions seem more relevant. They should be opened at the current price with targets at 1265.63, 1250.00 and stop-loss at 1285.00.
Long positions should be opened if the price consolidates above 1281.25 with targets at 1296.88, 1312.50 and stop-loss at 1280.00.

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Old Nov 14, 2017, 2:00pm   #480
 
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liteForex NZD/USD: Murray analysis

Current trend

On the daily chart the price rebounded from the level of 0.6958 ([2/8]) and is tending to the level of 0.6835 ([0/8]), which it has tested in the end of October already. The level was unsuccessfully tested this May, too, so it is quite strong. After the breakdown of it the price can fall to the levels of 0.6775 ([–1/8]) and 0.6714 ([–2/8]), which is confirmed by Stochastic, which is pointed downwards. However, the reversal and breakout of the middle line of Bollinger Bands and the level of 0.6958 ([2/8]) is not excluded, as the price is reaching the lower border of Bollinger Bands. In this case the price can grow to the levels of 0.7020 ([3/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]) and 0.7141 ([5/8]).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.6835 ([0/8]), 0.6775 ([–1/8]), 0.6714 ([–2/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.6958 ([2/8]), 0.7020 ([3/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]), 0.7141 ([5/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal of the price around 0.6835 or above the level of 0.6958 with the targets at 0.7020 and 0.7080 and stop loss at 0.6800 and 0.6900.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.6775 with the targets at 0.6714, 0.6670 and stop loss at 0.6810.

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