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This is a discussion on Forex Analysis by LiteForex within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; XAU/USD: general review Current trend Yesterday the pair was trading in the range 1076.43-1069.34 and closed at opening levels, but ...

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Old Dec 11, 2015, 11:12am   #25
Joined Nov 2015
LiteForexNews started this thread XAU/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the pair was trading in the range 1076.43-1069.34 and closed at opening levels, but today managed to overcome the support level at 1072.23 and falling.
Today data on Retail Sales is due in the US. According to forecasts, the index will grow by 0.2%, which if confirmed will pressure the XAU/USD pair.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the middle and bottom MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone suggesting a fall. ADX also signals the decline as DI lines cross each other, while the ADX line is moving down.
Support levels: 1055.87 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1053.21, 1046.57 (last week low).
Resistance levels: 1072.23 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1086.41 (this week high), 1096.71, 1105.84, 1125.28, 1138.12.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1055.87 and stop-loss at 1072.23.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1072.23 with the target at 1086.41 and stop-loss at 1067.00.

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Old Dec 11, 2015, 3:28pm   #26
Joined Nov 2015
LiteForexNews started this thread USD/JPY: review and forecast
Current trend
Having opened this trading day with a growth, the US Dollar started declining in the European session. However, later on, an upward dynamics resumed. The American currency is strengthening amid a fall in oil and precious metals prices.
Recently, BOJ Governor stated the Regulator might continue easing monetary policy to stimulate wage growth in Japan. The next BOJ meeting is due on 17-18 December, while the Fed announces its interest rate decision on 16 December.
Support and resistance
After a growth at the opening of the trading day, the USD/JPY pair has started declining towards the support level of 121.50 (Fibonacci 50.0%) during the European session.
However, when the correction ends and OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart turn up, the pair is likely to resume its growth within an upward channel on the daily chart.
Support levels: 121.50, 121.35.
Resistance levels: 122.00, 122.30, 122.50.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 122.10 with targets at 122.50, 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 121.80.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 121.25 with targets at 121.00, 120.70 and stop-loss at 121.55.

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Old Dec 14, 2015, 12:09pm   #27
Joined Nov 2015
LiteForexNews started this thread EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The Fed holds its finial meeting of the year on Wednesday. Many market participants expect a hike in US interest rates, so if the forecast is confirmed, the European currency is likely to weaken.
However, as long as inflation has not reached the target level of 2% yet, it might be seen as a determining factor for a forthcoming decision. Another negative aspect is Manufacturing PMI which came in below the key level of 50 points. This data might indicate a slowdown in economic growth.
Thus, in its decision making, the Fed will consider labor market statistics, inflation rate and the world economic situation.
Supportandresistance
Since the opening of the trading day, the European currency has been slightly declining against the US Dollar.
The key resistance level is still at 1.1040 the breakout of which would allow the price to continue growing towards 1.1150-1.1200.
Support level: 1.0925.
The nearest resistance level: 1.1055.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0925 with the target at 1.0875 and stop-loss at 1.0950.

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Old Dec 14, 2015, 12:54pm   #28
Joined Nov 2015
LiteForexNews started this thread EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The Fed holds its finial meeting of the year on Wednesday. Many market participants expect a hike in US interest rates, so if the forecast is confirmed, the European currency is likely to weaken.
However, as long as inflation has not reached the target level of 2% yet, it might be seen as a determining factor for a forthcoming decision. Another negative aspect is Manufacturing PMI which came in below the key level of 50 points. This data might indicate a slowdown in economic growth.
Thus, in its decision making, the Fed will consider labor market statistics, inflation rate and the world economic situation.
Supportandresistance
Since the opening of the trading day, the European currency has been slightly declining against the US Dollar.
The key resistance level is still at 1.1040 the breakout of which would allow the price to continue growing towards 1.1150-1.1200.
Support level: 1.0925.
The nearest resistance level: 1.1055.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0925 with the target at 1.0875 and stop-loss at 1.0950.

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Old Dec 14, 2015, 2:28pm   #29
Joined Nov 2015
LiteForexNews started this thread AUD/JPY: pair resumed its decline
Current trend
The AUD/JPY pair has declined from its local lows, reached in the first week of December. The Japanese currency has gained support form speculations over the upcoming Fed meeting. Though a hike in US interest rates is forecasted, investors suggest market reaction might be different than expected. It is possible that monetary policy tightening has already been priced into the market.
Last week, the Australian currency was growing only on Thursday amid the publication of unexpectedly favorable labor market statistics for November. Employment Change came in at 74.1K while a decline in the indicator by 10.0K had been forecasted. Unemployment Rate was down to 5.8% from 5.9% against expectations of an increase to 6.0%.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is turning down, while the price range is widening. However, the indicator has formed a signal for an upward correction. MACD keeps its downward trend. Stochastic is near the border of the oversold zone and trying to turn up.
It is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 87.00, 86.45 (10 November low), 86.00, 85.69, 85.00.
Resistance levels: 87.30, 88.00, 88.60, 89.12 (10 December high), 89.59, 90.00, 90.34, 90.71 (4 December high), 91.00.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 87.30 with targets at 88.00, 88.60, 89.00 and stop-loss at 86.70. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 87.00 with the target at 86.00 and stop-loss at 87.50. Validity – 2-3 days.

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Old Dec 15, 2015, 12:13pm   #30
Joined Nov 2015
LiteForexNews started this thread AUD/USD: general review
Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair is growing.
Today the pair was supported by strong data from Australia. New Motor Vehicle Sales for November grew to 6%, while the House Price Index came out in line with forecasts at 2%. At the same time, the pair is pressured by expectations of the Fed Interest Rate Decision that is due tomorrow. Markets expect rates to be increased that would add to the pressure on the pair.
Today attention needs to be paid to the Consumer Price Index in the US. Volatility on the market is expected to be low.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the middle and upper MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 100 and 144 periods are above the price and directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes remain almost unchanged. ADX indicates pair’s decline, DI lines cross over and directed down.
Today, the pair is expected to remain within the range of 0.7247-0.7302.
Support levels: 0.7247 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands, MA50), 0.7182, 0.7159 (this week low), 0.7133, 06984, 0.6908.
Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.7302 (MA100), 0.7343 (last week low), 0.7353, 0.7385.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.7280 with targets at 0.7302, 0.7343 and stop-loss at 0.7260.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7247 with the target at 0.7182 and stop-loss at 0.7280.
Scenario validity – 1-2 days.

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Old Dec 15, 2015, 2:12pm   #31
Joined Nov 2015
LiteForexNews started this thread USD/CAD: review and forecast
Current trend
On Monday, the USD/CAD pair hit its highest levels in more than 11 years. The demand for the US Dollar is strong ahead of the Fed meeting. The Canadian Dollar, in its turn, is under enormous pressure from falling oil prices.
Most investors expect a hike in US interest rate by 0.25 basis points. It is the tone of Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen’s comments that still raises doubts. If she points to a slow-paced series of rate increases, the USD will strengthen slightly. Otherwise, in case of a more hawkish view, a surge in the USD is expected.
Consumer Price Index is due today in the US. In monthly terms, zero inflation is expected; in annual terms, analysts forecast an increase from 0.2% to 0.4%. More positive data will strengthen the USD.
Later on, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz gives his speech. Low oil prices are strongly affecting the country’s economy, and the Regulator might reduce its interest rate to minus -0.5%. If such a possibility is confirmed, the CAD would weaken more against the USD.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, a doji pattern has formed that suggests the possibility of a downward correction.
Support levels: 1.3675, 1.3623, 1.1355.
Resistance levels: 1.3780, 1.3823, 1.3900.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3785 with targets at 1.3825 and 1.3900.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3675 with targets at 1.3630 and 1.3560.

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Old Dec 16, 2015, 12:01pm   #32
Joined Nov 2015
LiteForexNews started this thread USD/JPY: pair returned to growth
*
Current trend
Yesterday the USD/JPY pair significantly strengthened. Trading in the pair was very volatile due to a large number of macroeconomic publications that was coming out and approaching US Fed meeting at which, as expected, the regulator will increase its key interest rate.
The pair was supported by strong data on consumer inflation in the US. The Consumer Price Index for November grew from 0.2% to 0.5% that was better than economists forecasted. *
*
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is slowly narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a buy signal. Stochastic bounced off the oversold zone and growing.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 121.48, 121.00, 120.56, 120.34 (14 December low), 120.00 (22 October low), 119.62, 119.39.
Resistance levels: 122.00 (local high), 122.22 (11 December high), 122.60, 122.93, 123.35, 123.66 (2 December high), 124.00.
*
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 122.22 with targets at 123.25, 123.66 and stop-loss at 121.40. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 122.00 with targets at 121.00, 120.50, 120.30 and stop-loss at 122.60. Validity – 2-3 days.

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