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Old Mar 13, 2018, 12:46pm   #541
 
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LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Today Brent Crude Oil is trying to recover after falling to 64.00 mark on Monday.
The instrument was pressured by the EIA report, according to which the volume of shale oil production in the US will continue to grow: in March, it could increase to 6.82 million barrels per day, and in April –to 6.95 million barrels. New wells drilling is growing, too (by 110 units in February), which may create further expansion of production.
Long-term pressure on the market can be exerted by the actual failure of negotiations between OPEC representatives and US shale companies during the CERAWeek. According to Bijan Zangeneh from Iran the situation is so serious that the cartel may start withdrawal from the OPEC+ agreement at the June meeting. This emergency measure should help limit the shale boom in the US and allow traditional exporters to maintain their market share.

Support and resistance

The instrument is in the midline of Bollinger Bands around 64.50. Investors are waiting for the publication of API report on US oil reserves. In case of an increase, quotes can go down to 63.28 (Murrey [1/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands) and 62.50 (Murrey [0/8]) marks. Otherwise, the targets for growth will be the 65.62 (Murrey [4/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands) and 66.40 (Murrey [5/8]) marks.
Indicators illustrate the uncertainty of the market. Bollinger Bands are located horizontally. MACD histogram is at the zero line, its volumes are insignificant. Stochastic is reversing downwards.
Support levels: 64.06, 63.28, 62.50.
Resistance levels: 64.84, 65.62, 66.40.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 64.84 with targets at 65.62, 66.40 and stop-loss at 64.30.
Short positions will become relevant below 64.06 with targets at 63.28 and 62.50 and stop-loss at 64.50.

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Old Mar 14, 2018, 12:02pm   #542
 
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LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

On Thursday US dollar weakened and reached the level of 1.2410 (+0.58%).
American currency is under pressure of US poor inflation data. In February CPI decreased from 0.5% to 0.2% MoM, and Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy fell from 0.3% to 0.2% MoM. The YoY CPI Ex Food & Energy, which determines Fed’s interest rate decision, stayed on the level of 1.8%. All the factors can make the regulator postpone the tightening of monetary policy.
The investors are concerned about the resignation of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and assignment of Michael Pompeo to this post. The change is possibly made as a preparation for the trading war with China, as Pompeo supports Trump in this question actively. According to Reuters, the US administration is considering the implementation of fees on the Chinese goods amounting around 60 billion USD per year.
Today the pair is in the downward correction after commentaries of Mario Draghi, who again noted that ECB policy would stay the same until the inflation reached the target level. EU Industrial Production data also affected the euro negatively. In January the index went down by 1.0%. Today the market is focused on US Retail Sales release, which is expected to be strong and strengthen USD.

Support and resistance

The price is now tending to the level of 1.2329 (Murray [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), the breakout of which will let the instrument decrease to the levels of 1.2268 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2207 (Murray [5/8]). The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.2400 will let the price grow to the area of 1.2451 (Murray [8/8]) and 1.2512 (Murray [+2/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2400, 1.2451, 1.2512.
Support levels: 1.2329, 1.2268, 1.2207.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.2329 with the targets at 1.2268, 1.2207 and stop loss at у 1.2370.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2400 with the targets at 1.2451, 1.2512 and stop loss at 1.2380.

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Old Mar 15, 2018, 12:53pm   #543
 
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LiteForex: GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

On Wednesday, the pair was trading near the level of 1.3977, but today it is making an attempt to decrease, having lowered to 1.3916 mark.
USD is strengthening in view of a possible easing of banking regulation in the US. Dodd-Frank Act was adopted in 2010 after the global financial crisis. It significantly restricted the trading of banks in the stock market, banned investing in hedge funds more than 3% of bank's capital, and trading in the foreign exchange market. A new bill, approved by the Senate, allows banks with assets of less than USD 10 billion to trade on the exchange using their own funds. In addition, banks with a capital capacity of more than USD 250 billion will be subject to strict supervision (rather than current USD 50 billion) .
The political crisis between Britain and Russia did not affect the market, because the volume of trade between the countries is insignificant.

Support and resistance

Now the instrument tends to 1.3916 mark (the middle of Murrey commercial range [4/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), which seems to be key. If it breaks down, the decline may continue to the levels of 1.3793 (Murrey [2/8], H4) and 1.3671 (Murrey [0/8]). In case of a price rebound and consolidation above 1.3977 mark, growth may resume to the levels of 1.4038 (Murrey [6/8], H4) and 1.4160 (Murrey [2/8]).
The possibility of a decrease is more probable, as Stochastic is reversing down in the overbought zone.
Support levels: 1.3916, 1.3793, 1.3671.
Resistance levels: 1.3977, 1.4038, 1.4160.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 1.3916 mark with targets at 1.3793, 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3960.
After the breakout of 1.3977 mark long positions may be opened with targets at 1.4038, 1.4160 and stop-loss at 1.3940.

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Old Mar 16, 2018, 12:28pm   #544
 
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LiteForex: USD/JPY: Murray analysis

On the daily chart, the price is falling towards the strong level of 105.46 ([–1/8]), which it has been testing unsuccessfully during the last year. The consolidation of the price below it can let the price decrease further to the area of 104.68 ([-2/8]) and 103.90 ([-2/8], H4). The key “bullish” level is 106.25 ([0/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), the breakout of it will let the instrument grow to the area of 107.80 ([2/8]) 108.60 ([3/8]). Technical indicators reading are mixed. On the one hand, Bollinger Bands confirms the long-term downward trend. However, the decrease of MACD in the negative zone and the strength of the level 105.46 reflect the possibility of reversal and the upward correction of the price. In general, the position should be opened with care.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 105.46 ([–1/8]), 104.68 ([–2/8]), 103.90 ([–2/8], H4).
Resistance levels: 106.25 ([0/8]), 107.80 ([2/8]), 108.60 ([3/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal of the price around of the level 105.46 or above the level of 106.26 with the targets at 107.80, 108.60 and stop loss 105.10 and 105.90 correspondingly.
Short positions can be opened only if the price is set below the level of 105.46 with the targets at 104.68, 103.90 and stop loss at у 105.80.

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Old Mar 19, 2018, 12:11pm   #545
 
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LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Friday’s US building market data were poor. In February, Building Permits indicator decreased from 1.377 million до 1.298 million, and Housing Starts fell from 1.329 million to 1.236 million. However, thanks to the positive US Industrial Production index, which increased by 1.1% in February, USD closed the week in a green zone and reached the level of 1.2260 against EUR.
Today the price grew to the level of 1.2298, but no significant movement of the pair is expected in the nearest future. The market is waiting for Fed’s interest rate decision and especially for the new head of the regulator Jerome Powell’s following commentaries. At the end of February in his speech in Congress, he gave some hints that the interest rate could be increased four times this year instead of three times due to the economic growth, which exceeded the expectations. However, the recent poor data (the growth of unemployment by 4.1% and the decrease of CPI from 0.5% to 0.2%) may make him change his mind.

Support and resistance

Technically the price entered the middle Murray channel and decreased below the level of 1.2329 ([5/8]). It can fall further to the levels of 1.2207 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.2150. However, Stochastic is trying to reverse in the oversold area and can form a buy signal in the nearest future. In this case, the price can grow to the level of 1.2451 (Murray [6/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.2329, 1.2451.
Support levels: 1.2207, 1.2150, 1.2085.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1.2329 with the target at 1.2451 and stop loss at 1.2290.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2260 with the targets at 1.2207, 1.2150 and stop loss at around 1.2290.

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Old Mar 20, 2018, 1:00pm   #546
 
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LiteForex: GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

On Monday it was learned that the treaty, regulating the exit of the UK from EU, is mostly negotiated, which supported GBP significantly. The transitional period will last from March 29, 2019, until December 2020. During the period the UK will honor all the treaties and regulations of EU, but would not participate in negotiations and new decision-making. The question upon the Irish border is still open. In general, the European Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and British Brexit Minister David Davis agreed that the treaty is the decisive step on the way to the end of the civilized process of the countries’ divorce.
However, today’s UK inflation data disappointed the traders. According to Mark Carney’s forecast, the peak of CPI growth was last November, and since that time the index has been decreasing and in February reached the level of 2.7% YoY. Investors suppose that the decrease in the inflation can let the Bank of England postpone the interest rate rise indefinitely. As a result, the pair was corrected from 1.4085 to the level of 1.4010.
On Wednesday, the market is focused on Fed’ meeting. Jerome Powell’s hints that there can be four increasing of the rate instead of three this year can raise the volatility significantly.

Support and resistance

Now the price is tending to the level of 1.3977 (Murray [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). In case of the breakdown, the price can fall to the levels of 1.3916 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.3855 (Murray [2/8]). However, the reversal and growth to the levels of 1.4100 (Murray [+2/8]) and 1.4160 (Murray [2/8], D1) seem more likely.
Resistance levels: 1.4100, 1.4160.
Support levels: 1.3977, 1.3916, 1.3855.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.3977 or 1.4038 with the targets at 1.4100, 1.4160 and stop loss at 1.3950 and 1.4000 correspondingly.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level 1.3977 with the targets at 1.3916, 1.3855 and stop loss at 1.4010.

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Old Mar 21, 2018, 11:18am   #547
 
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LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Brent Crude oil rose yesterday almost by 2%, reaching three-week highs.
The cause for growth was the increased geopolitical tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The visit of Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman to the United States, during which the discussion of the introduction of new restrictive measures against Iran's oil market aimed at reducing exports, supported the market as a whole. Also, the growth was due to the decline in oil production in Venezuela and the reduction in oil reserves in the US (by 2.739 million barrels, according to the API report).

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart, the instrument grows along the upper line of Bollinger Bands, the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the uptrend. MACD histogram is in the positive area keeping a signal for the opening of long positions.
Support levels: 67.18, 66.98, 66.74, 66.35, 66.10.
Resistance levels: 68.34, 69.25, 69.92, 70.35, 70.77.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 68.30 and stop-loss at 67.50. Implementation time: 1–3 days.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 66.98 with the target at 66.35 and stop-loss at 67.30. Implementation time: 3–5 days.

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Old Mar 22, 2018, 12:22pm   #548
 
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LiteForex: GBP/USD: waiting for the BoE meeting

Current trend

Wednesday data from the labor market was strong and supported the pound. In January, the unemployment rate fell to long-term lows at around 4.3%. At the same time, the growth of the average wage (with premiums) to 2.8% (above forecasts) almost caught up with the inflation rate. Thus, the decline in income of British households is coming to an end. This, alongside gradual decline in inflation can create a favorable situation for reducing monetary incentives.
Today investors expect the regulator's decision on the interest rate. Probably, it will remain at the current level of 0.5%, however, in the accompanying statement, there may be hints about its increase (it may happen already in May).
GBP is currently supported*by the publication of strong data on retail sales in the UK (in February, it rose by 0.8% MoM and 1.5% (YoY)) and the Fed meeting, which disappointed the market. The US regulator did not make hints of a fourfold increase in the interest rate this year but intend to increase it three times instead of two in 2019.

Support and resistance

The general background for the growth of the pound remains favorable. However, the price moving out of the upper border of Bollinger Bands and Stochastic's approach to the overbought zone do not exclude correction to 1.3950 area (Fibo correction 38.2%, middle Bollinger Bands line). With a positive market reaction to the decision of the BoE, the quotes may rise to 1.4260 and 1.4345.
Support levels: 1.4080, 1.3950.
Resistance levels: 1.4180, 1.4260, 1.4345.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.4180 with targets at 1.4260, 1.4345 and stop-loss at 1.4140. Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.4080 with the target at 1.3950 and stop-loss at 1.4120 mark.

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Old Mar 26, 2018, 12:50pm   #549
 
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LiteForex: GBP/USD: the pound shows moderate growth

Current trend

GBP rose against USD on Friday, resuming the rise after corrective decline. The pressure on USD is put by a prospect for trade wars, after Donald Tramp announced the import duties introduction on steel and aluminum from China.
The USD is also weakened by macroeconomic statistics from the US. New Home Sales in the US in February fell by –0.6% MoM with a forecast of growth of 4.4% MoM. Last month the indicator decreased by –4.7% MoM.
Investors will focus on Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February (14:30 GMT+2) and speeches by the Fed representatives, William Dudley and Loretta Meister.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". Until the clarification of the situation, the channel trading strategy should be followed.
MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). There is an opportunity to maintain the existing long positions and open new ones in the short term.
Stochastic shows uncertain dynamics, being in the immediate vicinity of the "80" mark, which is the formal overbought limit of the instrument. It is necessary to wait for the appearance of new trade signals.
Resistance levels: 1.4200, 1.4238, 1.4276.
Support levels: 1.4143, 1.4068, 1.4030, 1.4000.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.4200 mark, provided that the showings of technical indicators do not contradict the development of the "bullish" trend. Take-profit – 1.4276 or 1.4300. Stop-loss – 1.4143. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
A rebound from the level of 1.4200, as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 1.4143 mark, may become a signal for corrective sales with the target of 1.4030–1.4000. Stop-loss – 1.4200. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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Old Mar 27, 2018, 2:29pm   #550
 
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LiteForex: GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The pair имеет is trading in different directions. On Monday, the price reached the 2-month highs around 1.4240 but today lost all the gains and was corrected to 1.4100.
Yesterday, GBP was supported by David Davis, who in his interview to BBC claimed that the United Kingdom achieved the perfect conditions for the transfer period, and the deal between the UK and EU will be made for sure, which supported the pound. There will not be a physical border between North Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and North Ireland will stay in the customs union.
Today USD is strengthening due to the hope that China and USA will develop mutually acceptable trade conditions. Both parties preferred the constructive stance in the negotiations. Washington insists that Beijing should decrease automobile import fees, buy a large number of American semiconductors, and allow foreign investors to own controlling stakes in the financial sector companies’ stocks. In this, China is ready to buy semiconductors made in the USA instead of South Korea and Taiwan, and the new rules of Chinese enterprises’ owning by foreign companies will be ready by May.

Support and resistance

The price reached the level of 1.4100 (Murray [7/8]) and can fall to the levels of 1.4038 (Murray [6/8]) and 1.3977 (Murray [5/8]), which is confirmed by pointed down Stochastic and MACD histogram, decreasing in the positive zone. In case of the breakout of the level of 1.4160, the instrument can grow to the levels of 1.4244 (2-months highs) and 1.4282 (Murray [+2/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.4160, 1.4244, 1.4282.
Support levels: 1.4100, 1.4038, 1.3977.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 1.4038, 1.3977 and stop loss near the level of 1.4130.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level 1.4160 with the targets at 1.4244, 1.4282 and stop loss 1.4140.

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Old Mar 28, 2018, 12:56pm   #551
 
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LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

The price of Brent Crude oil reversed around the three-month highs and is now correcting.
According to API, the volume of oil reserves increased by 5.321 million barrels. Tonight the market is waiting for similar data by EIA. Experts await a slight decrease in volumes by 0.287 million barrels, but these forecasts may be erroneous and the pressure on oil prices may continue.
On the one hand, OPEC+ continue to cut oil production in order to rebalance the market. On the other hand, the increase in prices leads to the activation of American shale companies. Meanwhile, the growth in the number of oil rigs in the US, according to Baker Hughes, has resumed: last week, their number was 804 units. And this is far from the limit – in 2014 their number exceeded 1,500 units.
Regarding this, Saudi Arabia offered Russia to continue cooperation in the oil sector after the OPEC+ agreement ends, for another 10-20 years. It is not clear yet whether it will be accepted. The key Russian players expect on the expansion of production. By 2022, Rosneft plans to increase its oil production by 10%, to 250 million tons.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price tests the 68.75 mark (Murray [4/8]) and, when consolidated below it, it can drop to the levels of 67.18 (Murray [3/8]) and 65.62 (Murray [2/8]). Otherwise, growth may resume to 70.31 (Murray [5/8]) and 71.87 (Murray [6/8]). The probability of decline is confirmed by Stochastic, which leaves the overbought zone.
Support levels: 68.75, 67.18, 65.62.
Resistance levels: 70.31, 71.87.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below 68.75 mark with targets at 67.18, 65.62 and stop-loss at 69.10.
Long positions may be opened from 69.40 mark with targets of 70.31, 71.87 and the stop-loss at 68.00.

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Old Mar 29, 2018, 11:56am   #552
 
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LiteForex: USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, USD strengthened against CAD due to the release of strong US GDP data, which exceeded the investors’ expectations and grew from 2.5% to 2.9%. The visit of the leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un to China supports the US currency, too. The experts consider it as an intention of DPRK to start the dialogue with the world society and with USA via Beijing, in particular. The trade negotiations between the USA and China continue. Trump’s Administration is now reviewing the possibility to restrict Chinese investments in enterprises and technologies, sensitive to the national safety. As a result, the decrease of the US stock market slowed, which, after the rapid fall on Tuesday, affected the dollar positively.
CAD is under additional pressure of the decrease in oil prices and some disagreements of Canada and US relating to NAFTA. The market is waiting for Canadian GDP release at 14:30 (GMT+2), the possibility of the growth of the index restricts the further growth of the pair.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading within the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger Bands, the price range is widened, which reflects the possible development of the upward movement. MACD histogram is around the zero line, its volumes are minimal, and the signal line is directed upwards.
Resistance levels: 1.2930, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3070, 1.3100, 1.3130.
Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2880, 1.2860, 1.2820, 1.2785.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.3000 and stop loss 1.2880. Implementation period: 1–3 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2860 with the target at 1.2800 and stop loss 1.2915. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

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Old Mar 30, 2018, 1:24pm   #553
 
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LiteForex: EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Published on Thursday, February data on personal spending remained the same, as expected. On YoY basis, the indicator made up 0.2%, and on a monthly basis 0.4%. Data from the labor market turned out to be more positive for investors: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits amounted 215K, continuing the declining trend (which has started early in March).
Today, the pair is calm: due to Good Friday, many of the financial enterprises are on holiday. The news that the USA President Trump can postpone the implementation of the new Agreement on free trade with South Korea supported the euro insignificantly. This week the countries agreed on a US companies access to South Korean automobile and medicine markets and the abolition of the US fees on the import metals.
The investors are waiting for Monday ISM Manufacturing PMI release. March index is expected to decrease from 60.8 to 60.0 points, which will affect USD negatively.

Support and resistance

The price is trading near the level of 1.2329 (Murray [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands). After the breakout the growth to the level of 1.2451 (Murray [8/8]) is possible. Otherwise, the instrument can return to the level of 1.2207 (Murray [4/8]). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal. Bollinger Bands are pointed horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line, its volumes are insignificant. Stochastic is pointed downward but has entered the oversold area, which reflects the possibility of a reversal.
Resistance levels: 1.2329, 1.2451.
Support levels: 1.2207, 1.2150, 1.2085.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2360 with the target at 1.2451 and stop loss around 1.2320.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2285 with the target at 1.2007 and stop loss around 1.2310.

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Old Apr 2, 2018, 1:24pm   #554
 
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LiteForex: NZD/USD: Murray analysis

On D1 chart, the price tested the 0.7200 mark ([6/8]). This level is seen as key for "bears", as unsuccessful attempts to overcome it continue since February.
Currently, the price is growing again, tending to the level of 0.7263 ([7/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands), and at its breakout quotes may reach the levels of 0.7324 ([8/8], the upper border of Bollinger Bands) and 0.7385 ([+1/8]). The probability of growth is confirmed by Stochastic reversing upwards. Continuation of the decline to the levels of 0.7080 ([4/8]) and 0.7019 ([3/8]) will be possible only if the instrument is consolidated below the 0.7200 mark.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7200 ([6/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]), 0.7019 ([3/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.7263 ([7/8]), 0.7324 ([8/8]), 0.7385 ([+1/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 0.7263 with targets at 0.7324, 0.7385 and stop-loss at 0.7235 mark.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7160 with targets at 0.7080, 0.7019 and stop-loss at 0.7200 mark.

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Old Apr 3, 2018, 1:50pm   #555
 
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LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

On Monday, prices fell sharply, and Brent Crude oil is currently trading around 67.50.
Quotes were pressured by a decision of the Chinese authorities to impose import duties on 128 US products, among which frozen pork, wine, some types of fruit and steel factory goods. Investors knew of the potential retaliatory measures, but there was a hope that their introduction would not happen while Washington and Beijing are conducting trade consultations.
In addition, the instrument is pressured by first Russia's failure since the beginning of the OPEC agreement+ to comply with its terms and exceeding the quotas of oil production. According to the Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, this was due to increased production of gas condensate due to cold weather and a traditional increase in production before the spring prophylactic works.
In the evening, the market is waiting for the publication of API data on commercial oil reserves in the US. If they grow again, oil prices will continue to decline.

Support and resistance

The technical picture is uncertain. Bollinger Bands have turned down, confirming the downward trend. But Stochastic is reversing in the oversold zone, which indicates a possible upward correction. In the breakout of the 67.96 mark (Murray [7/8]), the instrument can be adjusted to the level of 68.75 (Murray [8/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands). In the breakdown of 67.18 mark (Murray [6/8]), the decline will continue to levels of 66.40 (Murray [5/8]) and 65.62 (Murray [4/8]).
Support levels: 67.18, 66.40, 65.62.
Resistance levels: 67.96, 68.75.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below the level of 67.18 with targets at 66.40, 65.62 and stop-loss at 67.60.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 67.96 with the target at 68.75 and stop-loss at 67.70.

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