Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX

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Old Oct 1, 2015, 10:29am   #25
Joined Aug 2015
Cable Plunges On 10th Consecutive Day, What Next?

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The British Pound edged lower for a tenth day in a row against its American rival, with the pair extending its decline to a fresh 4-month low of 1.5106.

Earlier on Wednesday, the UK released the latest review of its Q2 GDP, which came as expected at 0.7%. Yearly basis, growth reached 2.4%, missing expectations of 2.6%. A positive surprise came from the current account deficit that narrowed to £16.8B from a revised £24B in Q1.

Following the release, the GBP/USD pair advanced up to its daily high of 1.5213, where once again, selling interest contained the advance. The downward movement seems overdone, but there is no technical signal of a change in the ongoing bearish trend.

In short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is now below a mild bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have recovered some from oversold territory, but turned flat well below their mid-lines.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA maintains its bearish slope above the current level, whilst the technical indicators have been rejected from their mid-lines, and head lower, supporting further declines on renewed selling interest below the 1.5130 level.
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Old Oct 5, 2015, 9:32am   #26
Joined Aug 2015
EUR/USD Holds Off Daily Triangle

CapitalStreetFX started this thread Having traded as high as 1.1317, the EUR/USD pair closed the day around the 1.1200 level, maintaining its latest range on Friday. On daily basis, the pair has been developing within a triangle and approaches to its vortex, diminishing the validity of the figure.

On Friday, the pair tested both extremes of the figure, before settling midway, maintaining its latest range. In the same chart, the price is between its 20 and 100 SMAs, both horizontal, whilst the technical indicators are also flat, slightly below their mid-lines.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the 4 hours chart, the price is holding above its 20 SMA, but below its 100 and 200 SMAs, the Momentum indicator is aiming slightly higher from its 100 level, whilst the RSI indicator turned south around 51, all in line with the ongoing neutral technical stance.

An upward continuation will be confirmed with a technical break above the 1.1320/30 price zone, where the pair met selling interest during the last two weeks.

Earlier the US employment data disappointed big on Friday, with the country adding just 142,000 new jobs in September and wages holding unchanged monthly basis at 0.0%.

The worse-than-expected data led to speculation the US Federal Reserve will delay a rate hike beyond this 2015, which sent the American dollar sharply lower intraday, although the currency recovered most of the ground lost, particularly against the EUR, the GBP and the JPY.
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Old Oct 6, 2015, 10:24am   #27
Joined Aug 2015
Gold Eyes $1159 Amid Strong Fundamentals

CapitalStreetFX started this thread Click the image to open in full size.

Gold held just below a one-week high on Tuesday, eyeing $1159 in the near term, as investors bet sluggish US nonfarm payrolls data would deter the Federal Reserve from hiking rates this year, although some cautioned that profit taking could hurt the metal in the near term.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,136 an ounce by 0337 GMT. Prices had risen to $1,141.80 in the previous session, the highest since September 28, before closing down 0.2 per cent.

The metal is still largely holding on to Friday’s 2.2 per cent jump, the biggest one-day rise since January 15 following data that showed US employers slammed the brakes on hiring over the last two months.

Non-interest-paying gold had benefited from ultra-low US rates. But expectations that the Fed will move to hike rates for the first time in nearly a decade has seen the metal lose about 4 per cent of its value this year.

However, recent US data has not been robust. After last week’s soft jobs report, data on Monday showed the pace of growth in the US services sector decelerated in September as new orders and business activity slowed.

Meanwhile, SPDR Gold Trust, the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, saw a small outflow of 0.22 tonnes on Monday. That is the fund’s first outflow in two weeks.
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Old Oct 7, 2015, 11:06am   #28
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EUR/USD Hits 1.1278, What’s Next?

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The EUR/USD pair surged to a daily high of 1.1278, trading within a range and still confined in a daily triangle.

In short term, the upward momentum is fading in the 1 hour chart, as despite the price is well above its moving averages, the technical indicators are beginning to show signs of exhaustion near overbought territory.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the 4 hours chart the 20 SMA is now aiming higher around 1.1200, whilst the Momentum indicator turned south and is crossing now below its 100 level, whilst the RSI indicator stands flat around 58, all of which limits chances of additional gains, during the upcoming hours.

Elsewhere the dollar edged sharply lower across the board, led by a sharp advance in commodities prices, as gold hovered in the 1,150 region, whilst WTI surged above $48.00 a barrel, for the first time in over a month.

Additionally, the price is getting too close to the vortex of the figure, and it will be invalidate if it’s not broken during the next couple of days. For this Wednesday, the roof of the figure is set at 1.1285, whilst the base stands now at 1.1160.

Data showed that in Germany, Factory orders were down 1.8% in August compared to July, and that the US trade balance deficit that widened to $48.3B in the same month, the largest expansion in US deficit in five months. The news boosted local share markets as sagging exports should put additional pressure on a FED’s possible rate hike.
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Old Oct 9, 2015, 11:47am   #29
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Crude Oil Inches Higher In Asia Amid FOMC Minutes

CapitalStreetFX started this thread Click the image to open in full size.

Crude oil futures rose in early Asian trade on thin volumes after an influential forecaster predicted that a market rally was not far off and U.S. Federal Reserve minutes suggested there was no hurry to raise rates.

The gains added to a surge in prices on Thursday, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, on track for a near 11-percent gain this week, the biggest weekly rise since early 2009.

Brent was up 25 cents at $53.30 a barrel at 0306 GMT. The contract rose $1.72 to close at $53.05 a barrel on Thursday.

U.S. crude was 23 cents higher at $49.66 a barrel, after climbing 3.4 percent to close at $49.43 a barrel.

U.S. crude is heading for a gain of about 9 percent this week, the biggest weekly increase since August. The contract rose to above $50 on Thursday, the highest since July 22.

PIRA Energy Group, a closely watched forecaster that predicted the slump in oil prices a year ago, said on Thursday it expected crude prices to rise to $70 per barrel by the end of 2016 and $75 a barrel in 2017.
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Old Oct 12, 2015, 9:45am   #30
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Wall Street Closes the Best Week for 2015

CapitalStreetFX started this thread Wall Street closed with tepid gains on Friday, with the Dow Jones adding 33 points and ending the day at 17,084.49. The Nasdaq and the S&P added 0.41% and 0.07% respectively, in what has been one of the best weeks for this 2015.

The indexes extended their advance as investors weighed the latest FOMC’ dovish Minutes, and more poor US data, as on Friday, news showed that import and export prices both fell in September, while wholesale sales slid 1.0% in August, far beyond expected.

Technically, the daily chart for the index shows that its stalled its advance a few points below its 100 DMA, while the technical indicators have lost their upward strength and turned flat near overbought levels, far from signaling an upcoming retracement.

Click the image to open in full size.

In shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the index is still well above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the RSI indicator turned slightly lower around 69 and the Momentum indicator heads slightly lower, but well above its mid-line.

Friday’s low at 17,003 is the level to watch as pullbacks towards it should attract buying interest to keep the upside favored.
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Old Oct 13, 2015, 12:15pm   #31
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Gold Hits Fresh 7-Week High, What’s Next?[/

CapitalStreetFX started this thread Gold prices surged strongly during London trading hours, with spot gold reaching $1,169.04 a troy ounce, a fresh 7-week high.

The commodity extended its advance on speculation the US Federal Reserve will maintain its rates at record lows for the rest of this 2015, whilst a weaker dollar is also supportive of gold.

The commodity has eased some from its highs, but closed the day above the 1,160.00 level, which maintains the bullish trend in place. Daily basis, the has extended further above its 20 and 100 DMAs, while advancing briefly above the 200 DMA, before closing the day a few cents below it.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the same time frame, the technical indicators recovered their bullish slopes above their mid-lines, supporting additional gains for the upcoming sessions.

Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is well above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator heads higher well above its mid-line, and the RSI indicator hovers around 64, also supporting a continued advance, particularly if the price holds above 1,150, a key psychological support.
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Old Oct 19, 2015, 10:13am   #32
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Could Euro Resume Upside Rally This Week?[

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The EUR/USD pair closed the week unchanged around 1.1350, as the greenback advanced on Friday. The dollar surged amid a general positive tone in local data, as the number of job openings decreased to 5.4 million in August, a little weaker than expectations, but still at high levels.

Consumer sentiment climbed more than forecast in October, with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index up to 92.1, the first advance in four months. In Europe however, inflation fell into negative territory yearly basis, resulting at was -0.1% in September 2015, down from 0.1% in August. Monthly basis, it come out at 0.2% against previous 0.0%.

The ECB will have an economic policy meeting this week, and market talks point for an extension in its Q3 program, given that inflation remains at record lows. Also, the EU will release its latest PMI figures, a neat barometer of the economic situation. Should the Central Bank refrain from changing its policy, the common currency may get a nice boost and return towards the 1.1500, as long as it previously holds above 1.1280.

For this Monday, the EUR/USD pair maintains a positive technical tone daily basis, although failure at 1.1500 earlier in the week suggests a limited upward potential ahead. Nevertheless, the price holds well above its moving averages, with the 20 DMA acting as a critical support around 1.1280 for the upcoming days, whilst the technical indicators hold well above their mid-lines, albeit lacking upward momentum at the time being.

Click the image to open in full size.

In short term, the 4 hours chart presents a bearish tone, with the price having been unable to advance beyond its 20 SMA since last Wednesday, and the technical indicators maintaining strong bearish slopes in negative territory. Friday’s low at 1.1330 provides an immediate support, with a break below it required to confirm a bearish continuation for this Monday.
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