Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX

This is a discussion on Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; The GBP/CAD edged lower this Tuesday, as the Pound was among the weakest currencies of the day, following the release ...

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Old Sep 16, 2015, 4:56pm   #17
Joined Aug 2015
GBP/CAD Remains Vulnerable As Bearish Gain Momentum

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The GBP/CAD edged lower this Tuesday, as the Pound was among the weakest currencies of the day, following the release of tepid Britainís CPI figures, suggesting a rate hike in the UK may be delayer further beyond the first half of 2016.

Crude oil prices were hardly changed, with WTI crude oil futures advancing some cents, but ending the day below $ 45.00 a barrel. The GBP/CAD presents a clear negative tone by the US close, with the 1 hour chart showing that the 20 SMA gained bearish slope around 2.0410, and that the technical indicators maintain their sharp negative slopes, despite being in oversold territory.

In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators head sharply lower whilst the price is now extending below its 200 EMA, currently around 2.0330.

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A downward acceleration through the 2.0300 level exposes the cross to a test of 2.0260 region, where it has several intraday highs and lows. Additional declines below this last should see a stronger bearish momentum, with the target then at the 2.0200 level.
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Old Sep 17, 2015, 4:32pm   #18
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US Inflation Disappoints Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision

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The U.S. Department of Labor released Augustís CPI reading as being a drop by 0.1%. Forecast was calling for the reading to be flat. Another black eye on the headline CPI was that Julyís inflation report was revised to 0.0% from a preliminary 0.1% gain.

The core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, showed a gain of 0.1% on the monthly reading. Bloomberg was looking for a consensus of 0.2% in August. The prior month was revised upward to a gain of 0.2% from 0.1%.

Perhaps the Fed can hang its hat on the annual numbers, comparing the inflation at the consumer level to August of 2014. That annual change was up 0.2% on the headline, but the core-CPI reading was up by 1.8% on an annual basis.

Remember that the Federal Reserve really wants the inflation rate at 2.0% to 2.5%.
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Old Sep 18, 2015, 3:05pm   #19
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Yellow Metal To Face Strong Resistance at $1143

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Spot gold got a nice boost from the FED, rising up to a daily high of $ 1,135.74 a troy ounce, its highest since September 2, after US policy makers voted to keep the federal funds rates unchanged.

The bright metal closed the day around $ 1,132.00 a troy ounce, as the US Central Bank decision took out some of the pressure over the commodity.

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Nevertheless, the recovery stalled short from confirming a longer term advance, although the daily chart shows that the price has managed to advance beyond its 20 SMA, whilst the RSI indicator heads higher around 56.

In the same chart however, the 100 DMA maintains a strong bearish slope above the current level, providing a strong dynamic resistance now around 1,143.50, while the Momentum indicator heads higher below the 100 level.

In the 4 hours chart, the price has extended above a now bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have lost their upward strength near overbought levels. The immediate support is now around 1,126.60, September 8 daily high, with a break below it pointing for a continued decline towards the 1,110 region.
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Old Sep 21, 2015, 12:17pm   #20
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GBP/CAD Seeks Direction As Oil Strength Weighs

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The GBP/CAD cross reversed its Fridayís losses and closed barely up at 2.0534, as the Canadian dollar was weighed by a slump in oil prices.

The black gold started the week with a strong note, with WTI advanced up to $ 47.69 a barrel, although the FEDís decision to maintain its economic policy unchanged raised concerns about the local economy, and therefore the energy demand.

News that US oil rig count fell the previous, with the Baker Hughes report showing 644 active rigs against previous 652, did little to help the black gold, particularly considering that oil production is still high.

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The GBP/CAD however, closed at a 3-week high, and a slightly bullish tone prevails, as the daily chart shows the price bounced from a bearish 20 SMA providing a strong support around 2.0335, whilst the technical indicators lack directional strength above their mid-lines.

In the 4 hours chart, the price is well above a flat 20 SMA, whilst the RSI indicator heads higher around 58 and the Momentum indicator holds directionless above its 100 level.
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Old Sep 22, 2015, 10:44am   #21
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EUR/USD Finally Breaks the 1.1200 Barrier

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The American dollar advanced sharply for a second day in-a-row, erasing all of its post-FEDís losses, and with the EUR/USD ending the day a handful of pips below the 1.1200 figure, for the first time in over two weeks.

The Euro/Dollar pair set a daily low at 1.1180, finding short term selling interest on recoveries towards the 1.1210/20 region.

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Closing the day near the mentioned low, the short term picture supports additional declines for the upcoming hours, as in the 1 hour chart, the 20 SMA heads sharply lower after breaking below its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators consolidate in oversold territory, with no signs of changing bias.

In the 4 hours chart, and early attempt to advance was contained by the 20 SMA, in the 1.1330 region, whilst the technical indicators have lost their downward strength, but remain below their mid-lines, also far from suggesting an up-turn. Should the price extend beyond 1.1160, the bearish momentum will likely accelerate, eyeing then 1.1050 as the next probable bearish target for the upcoming sessions.

Meanwhile FED officers hit the wires, most claiming the Central Bank was really close to raise its benchmark last week, which opened doors for a probable move during the upcoming meetings. US data did not supported the greenback, as US Existing Home sales fell 4.8% in August, after three straight months of gains, although the dollar maintained it positive tone for most of the last two sessions.
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Old Sep 23, 2015, 9:19am   #22
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Dow Plunges Nearly 300 Points Amid Hawkish Statements from Fed

CapitalStreetFX started this thread Wall Street edged sharply lower on Tuesday, weighed by a sell-off in global equities and a sharp decline in commodities. The DJIA traded almost 300 points lower intraday, although bounced before the closing bell, ending the day down 179 points or 1.09% a 16,330.47. The Nasdaq and the S&P also closed in the red.

The confusing message from the US Federal Reserve, that kept rates unchanged last week, followed by ultra-hawkish comments from different officials this week, vowing for a rate hike as soon as October, have pushed investors into profit taking.

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Technically, the daily chart shows that the index closed at its lowest in two weeks, and below the 50% retracement of its latest weekly decline, also below its 20 SMA. In the same chart, the technical indicators have turned lower with the Momentum still above its 100 level, but the RSI heading south around 44, anticipating a downward continuation.

In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart, the index is below a bearish 20 SMA, although the technical indicators are correcting higher below their mid-lines, limiting the downside as long as the immediate support at 16,214 holds.
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Old Sep 28, 2015, 9:04am   #23
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FTSE100 Eyes 6254 As Bulls Gain Strength

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The FTSE 100 closed 151 points higher at 6,109.01, as market sentiment improved following FEDís chair late Thursday statement. Commodity-related equities advanced after being under pressure for most of the week, although the advances were quite limited compared to its latest decline.

Rip Tinto gained 1.44%, and BHP Billiton gained 0.74%, Glencore, however, closed down 1.4% ending the week 22.8% lower. The daily chart shows that the index closed below its daily high of 6,136 and below a mild bearish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator lacks directional strength around its mid-line, and the RSI indicator aims higher around 44, limiting the upside.

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In the 4 hours chart, the index remains below a bearish 100 SMA, but above a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator edges higher above 100 and the RSI indicator hovers around 51. The immediate resistance comes at 6,150, the 38.2% retracement of its latest weekly decline, and it will take a clear break above it to confirm a bullish continuation for Monday, up to the 6,245 region.
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Old Sep 29, 2015, 10:26am   #24
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EUR/USD Still Looks Very Bullish As Bulls Remain In Control

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The EUR/USD pair ended the day with gains and near a daily high set at 1.1247 and the short term picture favors additional advances, as the 1 hour chart shows that the price is hovering around its 200 SMA after accelerating above the 20 and 100 SMAs, whilst the Momentum indicator heads slightly higher above the 100 level and the RSI indicator advances slowly around 64.

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In the 4 hours chart the price advanced above its 20 SMA, now offering an intraday support around 1.1200, whilst the RSI indicator turned north and advanced beyond 50 supporting additional advances towards the 1.1335 region for this Tuesday, on renewed demand beyond the mentioned daily high.

Risk sentiment was again the main market driver, with safe-haven currencies outperforming. US data was far from encouraging, as the PCE figures for August showed that personal income shrank to 0.3%, while spending rose to 0.4%.

On monthly basis, the PCE price index came out at 0.0%, but advanced to 1.3% from previous 1.2% yearly basis. Pending home sales retreated in the same month, down 1.4% against expectations of a 0.5% advance.

FEDís officers fueled uncertainty, with Dudley stating that he expects the FED to hike later this year, but saying that will depend on upcoming data. Chicago FEDís Evans on the other hand, resulted quite dovish, saying that he prefers a later lift-off to avoid the risk of lowering inflation.
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