Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX

This is a discussion on Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; Wall Street closed sharply higher, with the DJIA up 3.95% or 619 points, closing the day at 16,285.51, and posting ...

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Old Aug 27, 2015, 8:53am   #9
Joined Aug 2015
Dow Jones Up by 3.95% After A Record-Breaking Intraday Gain

CapitalStreetFX started this thread Wall Street closed sharply higher, with the DJIA up 3.95% or 619 points, closing the day at 16,285.51, and posting one if its largest ever intraday gain.

The limited slide in Chinese stocks after the latest PBoC decision to cut rates, alongside with Dudley’s comments, suggesting that the FED may delay a rate hike, boosted optimism among US traders.

The benchmark however, is still far from Friday’s close around 16,455, the level to break to confirm an interim bottom in place.

Technically the daily chart shows that the 20 SMA maintains a sharp bearish slope well above the current level, although the technical indicators head clearly higher, recovering from extreme oversold readings and supporting and upward continuation, at least in corrective mode.

Click the image to open in full size.

The 4 hours chart presents a more constructive outlook, as the Momentum indicator has crossed above its 100 level and maintains its bullish slope, whilst the RSI indicator heads higher around 49 and the index extends below its 20 SMA, still with a clear bearish slope.
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Old Aug 28, 2015, 8:33am   #10
Joined Aug 2015
CapitalStreetFX started this thread The USD/JPY pair regained the 120.00 level during the past Asian session, boosted by the recovery in Asian share markets and renewed dollarís buying interest.

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The pair however, held near the 120.50 before finally surging in the American afternoon, up to 121.39, meeting selling interest around the 61.8% retracement of these last two-weeks decline.

Japan will release its National and Tokyo inflation during the upcoming session, and better-than-expected results may help the yen extending its recovery.

In short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is now well above its 100 SMA that anyway maintains a bearish slope, whilst the RSI retreats from overbought readings, now heading lower around 61, limiting the upside as long as the price holds below the mentioned Fibonacci level.

In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator turned south, but remains above the 100 level, whilst the RSI hovers around 53, supporting additional gains, should the price extend beyond 121.40.
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Old Sep 4, 2015, 4:56pm   #11
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Dow Jones: An Upbeat NFP Figure Might Incite Renewed Selling Pressure

CapitalStreetFX started this thread Wall Street rallied at the opening, but faded before the closing bell, with the indexes closing barely unchanged daily basis.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 23 points and ended the day at 16,374.76, down from a daily high around 16,554. The initial rally came after yesterdayís big rebound and local positive data, showing the services sector keeps growing.

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However, investors choose to take profits out of the table ahead of Fridayís US employment report, the ultimate risk event ahead of FEDís economic policy meeting in two weeks.

Technically, the downward potential is firm in place, as the daily chart maintains the negative tone seen on previous updates, with the index well below its moving averages and the technical indicators unable to pick up below their mid-lines.

The 4 hours chart presents a neutral stance, with the index hovering above a bearish 20 SMA and the technical indicator losing their upward strength, barely above their mid-lines.

The index upcoming direction will likely be determinate by how the market understands the employment figures, as if investors suspect that the FED may raise rates as soon as this month, stocks may plummet by reflex.
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Old Sep 7, 2015, 1:46pm   #12
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AUD/USD Hovers Around 6-Year Low Ahead of Aussie Employment News

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The AUD/USD pair closed last week at its lowest level in over six years, as the liquidation of the antipodean currency remains firm in place.

The Aussie was also affected by the sharp slide in metals, as except for platinum, all closed in the red last Friday.

The overall negative sentiment has increased these last few weeks amid of the Chinese economic slowdown weighing on the local recovery.

Later on this week, Australia will release its monthly employment figures, and a positive reading may take off some of the pressure over the local currency.

Nevertheless, the pair has broken below a long term ascendant trend line coming from September 2001 low at 0.4815, currently around 0.7160, with high bearish implications for the upcoming weeks.

Click the image to open in full size.

The daily chart shows that the technical indicators continue to head south, despite being I extreme oversold territory, whilst the 20 SMA has accelerated its decline well above the current price.

In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators also head lower in oversold levels, with no signs of exhaustion at the time being whilst the 20 SMA provides a strong dynamic resistance around 0.6990 in the case of an upward correction.
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Old Sep 10, 2015, 12:38pm   #13
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Oil Dips Below $45 After EIA Forecast

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Oil futures dipped below $45 a barrel yesterday, settling at the lowest level in nearly two weeks after the Energy Information Administration lowered its crude-oil price forecasts for this year and next. Prices also saw pressure ahead of weekly data thatís expected to show a rise in U.S. crude supplies.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, October West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.79, or 3.9%, to settle at $44.15 a barrel. October Brent crude on Londonís ICE Futures exchange fell $1.94, or 3.9%, to $47.58 a barrel.

Both contracts saw their weakest settlement since Aug. 27. Overall, oil prices have fallen by around 17% so far this year.

In a monthly report, the EIA said it expects WTI prices to average $49.23 a barrel this year, down from a previous forecast of $49.62. It also reduced its forecast to $53.57 for 2016, versus $54.42. For Brent, its 2015 forecast was at $54.07, down from the previous forecast of $54.40.

Oil prices lost more ground after the report. Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, waiting for a solid reversal candle on daily chart appears to be a good strategy in short to medium term.
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Old Sep 11, 2015, 3:50pm   #14
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FTSE100 Sheds 1.18% After Strong Fall In Morrisons Stock

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The FTSE 100 lost 1.18% or 72 points, ending the day at 6,155.81, weighed not only by worldwide investorsí negative mood, by also by a strong fall in Morrisons shares, as the supermarket announced it was closing stores amid falling sales and profits.

Also, Home Retail Group edged lower, after reporting another fall in sales of Argos, which it owns, accounting for the 70% of the companyís revenues.

Beyond affecting shares, the decline in those stocks indicates, as the BOE announced earlier in the day that there are little chances for inflation to pick up in the upcoming months.

Technically, the index has made little progress over the last 24 hours, with the index stalling on an early advance around a still bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators remain in negative territory, albeit the Momentum indicator continues heading higher.

In the 4 hours chart, the index is now above a flat 20 SMA, while the technical indicators also lack directional strength right above their mid-lines, giving no clues on whatís next for this Friday.
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Old Sep 14, 2015, 1:41pm   #15
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Dow Bulls Remain In Control Amid Rate Hike Speculations

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Wall Street closed with gains, with the DJIA up 102 points or 0.63%, ending the day at 16,433.09, and the week 2.05% higher.

A series of poor US data released on Friday, lifted hopes among stocks investors, on a delay towards December before the Central Bank actually raises rates.

The US Producer Price Index was unchanged in August compared to a month before, and down 0.8% on a yearly basis. Consumer sentiment, according to the preliminary Michigan/Reuters survey, declined down 85.7 in September, the lowest in a year.

The Dow managed to close the week above the 50% retracement of its latest decline and above a still bearish 20 SMA, but the technical indicators are far from supporting additional gains, as the Momentum indicator turned sharply lower above the 100 level, whilst the RSI hovers around 46.

In shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical readings are mostly neutral, with the index a few points above a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators aim higher around their mid-lines, lacking directional strength.
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Old Sep 15, 2015, 4:46pm   #16
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Gold Holds Range Ahead of US Interest Rate Decision

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Gold prices held steady in European morning hours on Tuesday, as markets were jittery ahead of the Federal Reserveís policy statement this week amid growing uncertainty over a potential rate hike.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery were steady at $1,107.40.

The December contract ended Fridayís session 0.40% higher at $1,107.70 an ounce.

Futures were likely to find support at $1,098.20, the low of September 11 and a one-month low and resistance at $1,111.70, the high of September 11.

Investors remained cautious amid concerns that mixed U.S. economic reports and recent volatility in global financial markets will prompt the U.S. central bank to refrain from hiking interest rates on Thursday.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said that an interest rate increase is data dependent but has also indicated that she expects to begin raising rates before the end of the year.

Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise.

Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for December delivery was little changed at $14.360 a troy ounce, while copper futures for December delivery held steady at $2.404 a pound.
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