Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX

This is a discussion on Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; Gold prices held steady in European morning hours on Tuesday, as markets were jittery ahead of the Federal Reserveís policy ...

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Old Sep 15, 2015, 4:46pm   #16
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Gold Holds Range Ahead of US Interest Rate Decision

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Gold prices held steady in European morning hours on Tuesday, as markets were jittery ahead of the Federal Reserveís policy statement this week amid growing uncertainty over a potential rate hike.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery were steady at $1,107.40.

The December contract ended Fridayís session 0.40% higher at $1,107.70 an ounce.

Futures were likely to find support at $1,098.20, the low of September 11 and a one-month low and resistance at $1,111.70, the high of September 11.

Investors remained cautious amid concerns that mixed U.S. economic reports and recent volatility in global financial markets will prompt the U.S. central bank to refrain from hiking interest rates on Thursday.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said that an interest rate increase is data dependent but has also indicated that she expects to begin raising rates before the end of the year.

Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise.

Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for December delivery was little changed at $14.360 a troy ounce, while copper futures for December delivery held steady at $2.404 a pound.
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Old Sep 16, 2015, 4:56pm   #17
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GBP/CAD Remains Vulnerable As Bearish Gain Momentum

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The GBP/CAD edged lower this Tuesday, as the Pound was among the weakest currencies of the day, following the release of tepid Britainís CPI figures, suggesting a rate hike in the UK may be delayer further beyond the first half of 2016.

Crude oil prices were hardly changed, with WTI crude oil futures advancing some cents, but ending the day below $ 45.00 a barrel. The GBP/CAD presents a clear negative tone by the US close, with the 1 hour chart showing that the 20 SMA gained bearish slope around 2.0410, and that the technical indicators maintain their sharp negative slopes, despite being in oversold territory.

In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators head sharply lower whilst the price is now extending below its 200 EMA, currently around 2.0330.

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A downward acceleration through the 2.0300 level exposes the cross to a test of 2.0260 region, where it has several intraday highs and lows. Additional declines below this last should see a stronger bearish momentum, with the target then at the 2.0200 level.
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Old Sep 17, 2015, 4:32pm   #18
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US Inflation Disappoints Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision

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The U.S. Department of Labor released Augustís CPI reading as being a drop by 0.1%. Forecast was calling for the reading to be flat. Another black eye on the headline CPI was that Julyís inflation report was revised to 0.0% from a preliminary 0.1% gain.

The core-CPI, which excludes food and energy, showed a gain of 0.1% on the monthly reading. Bloomberg was looking for a consensus of 0.2% in August. The prior month was revised upward to a gain of 0.2% from 0.1%.

Perhaps the Fed can hang its hat on the annual numbers, comparing the inflation at the consumer level to August of 2014. That annual change was up 0.2% on the headline, but the core-CPI reading was up by 1.8% on an annual basis.

Remember that the Federal Reserve really wants the inflation rate at 2.0% to 2.5%.
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Old Sep 18, 2015, 3:05pm   #19
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Yellow Metal To Face Strong Resistance at $1143

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Spot gold got a nice boost from the FED, rising up to a daily high of $ 1,135.74 a troy ounce, its highest since September 2, after US policy makers voted to keep the federal funds rates unchanged.

The bright metal closed the day around $ 1,132.00 a troy ounce, as the US Central Bank decision took out some of the pressure over the commodity.

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Nevertheless, the recovery stalled short from confirming a longer term advance, although the daily chart shows that the price has managed to advance beyond its 20 SMA, whilst the RSI indicator heads higher around 56.

In the same chart however, the 100 DMA maintains a strong bearish slope above the current level, providing a strong dynamic resistance now around 1,143.50, while the Momentum indicator heads higher below the 100 level.

In the 4 hours chart, the price has extended above a now bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have lost their upward strength near overbought levels. The immediate support is now around 1,126.60, September 8 daily high, with a break below it pointing for a continued decline towards the 1,110 region.
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Old Sep 21, 2015, 12:17pm   #20
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GBP/CAD Seeks Direction As Oil Strength Weighs

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The GBP/CAD cross reversed its Fridayís losses and closed barely up at 2.0534, as the Canadian dollar was weighed by a slump in oil prices.

The black gold started the week with a strong note, with WTI advanced up to $ 47.69 a barrel, although the FEDís decision to maintain its economic policy unchanged raised concerns about the local economy, and therefore the energy demand.

News that US oil rig count fell the previous, with the Baker Hughes report showing 644 active rigs against previous 652, did little to help the black gold, particularly considering that oil production is still high.

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The GBP/CAD however, closed at a 3-week high, and a slightly bullish tone prevails, as the daily chart shows the price bounced from a bearish 20 SMA providing a strong support around 2.0335, whilst the technical indicators lack directional strength above their mid-lines.

In the 4 hours chart, the price is well above a flat 20 SMA, whilst the RSI indicator heads higher around 58 and the Momentum indicator holds directionless above its 100 level.
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Old Sep 22, 2015, 10:44am   #21
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EUR/USD Finally Breaks the 1.1200 Barrier

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The American dollar advanced sharply for a second day in-a-row, erasing all of its post-FEDís losses, and with the EUR/USD ending the day a handful of pips below the 1.1200 figure, for the first time in over two weeks.

The Euro/Dollar pair set a daily low at 1.1180, finding short term selling interest on recoveries towards the 1.1210/20 region.

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Closing the day near the mentioned low, the short term picture supports additional declines for the upcoming hours, as in the 1 hour chart, the 20 SMA heads sharply lower after breaking below its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators consolidate in oversold territory, with no signs of changing bias.

In the 4 hours chart, and early attempt to advance was contained by the 20 SMA, in the 1.1330 region, whilst the technical indicators have lost their downward strength, but remain below their mid-lines, also far from suggesting an up-turn. Should the price extend beyond 1.1160, the bearish momentum will likely accelerate, eyeing then 1.1050 as the next probable bearish target for the upcoming sessions.

Meanwhile FED officers hit the wires, most claiming the Central Bank was really close to raise its benchmark last week, which opened doors for a probable move during the upcoming meetings. US data did not supported the greenback, as US Existing Home sales fell 4.8% in August, after three straight months of gains, although the dollar maintained it positive tone for most of the last two sessions.
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Old Sep 23, 2015, 9:19am   #22
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Dow Plunges Nearly 300 Points Amid Hawkish Statements from Fed

CapitalStreetFX started this thread Wall Street edged sharply lower on Tuesday, weighed by a sell-off in global equities and a sharp decline in commodities. The DJIA traded almost 300 points lower intraday, although bounced before the closing bell, ending the day down 179 points or 1.09% a 16,330.47. The Nasdaq and the S&P also closed in the red.

The confusing message from the US Federal Reserve, that kept rates unchanged last week, followed by ultra-hawkish comments from different officials this week, vowing for a rate hike as soon as October, have pushed investors into profit taking.

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Technically, the daily chart shows that the index closed at its lowest in two weeks, and below the 50% retracement of its latest weekly decline, also below its 20 SMA. In the same chart, the technical indicators have turned lower with the Momentum still above its 100 level, but the RSI heading south around 44, anticipating a downward continuation.

In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart, the index is below a bearish 20 SMA, although the technical indicators are correcting higher below their mid-lines, limiting the downside as long as the immediate support at 16,214 holds.
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Old Sep 28, 2015, 9:04am   #23
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FTSE100 Eyes 6254 As Bulls Gain Strength

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The FTSE 100 closed 151 points higher at 6,109.01, as market sentiment improved following FEDís chair late Thursday statement. Commodity-related equities advanced after being under pressure for most of the week, although the advances were quite limited compared to its latest decline.

Rip Tinto gained 1.44%, and BHP Billiton gained 0.74%, Glencore, however, closed down 1.4% ending the week 22.8% lower. The daily chart shows that the index closed below its daily high of 6,136 and below a mild bearish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator lacks directional strength around its mid-line, and the RSI indicator aims higher around 44, limiting the upside.

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In the 4 hours chart, the index remains below a bearish 100 SMA, but above a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator edges higher above 100 and the RSI indicator hovers around 51. The immediate resistance comes at 6,150, the 38.2% retracement of its latest weekly decline, and it will take a clear break above it to confirm a bullish continuation for Monday, up to the 6,245 region.
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Old Sep 29, 2015, 10:26am   #24
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EUR/USD Still Looks Very Bullish As Bulls Remain In Control

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The EUR/USD pair ended the day with gains and near a daily high set at 1.1247 and the short term picture favors additional advances, as the 1 hour chart shows that the price is hovering around its 200 SMA after accelerating above the 20 and 100 SMAs, whilst the Momentum indicator heads slightly higher above the 100 level and the RSI indicator advances slowly around 64.

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In the 4 hours chart the price advanced above its 20 SMA, now offering an intraday support around 1.1200, whilst the RSI indicator turned north and advanced beyond 50 supporting additional advances towards the 1.1335 region for this Tuesday, on renewed demand beyond the mentioned daily high.

Risk sentiment was again the main market driver, with safe-haven currencies outperforming. US data was far from encouraging, as the PCE figures for August showed that personal income shrank to 0.3%, while spending rose to 0.4%.

On monthly basis, the PCE price index came out at 0.0%, but advanced to 1.3% from previous 1.2% yearly basis. Pending home sales retreated in the same month, down 1.4% against expectations of a 0.5% advance.

FEDís officers fueled uncertainty, with Dudley stating that he expects the FED to hike later this year, but saying that will depend on upcoming data. Chicago FEDís Evans on the other hand, resulted quite dovish, saying that he prefers a later lift-off to avoid the risk of lowering inflation.
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Old Oct 1, 2015, 10:29am   #25
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Cable Plunges On 10th Consecutive Day, What Next?

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The British Pound edged lower for a tenth day in a row against its American rival, with the pair extending its decline to a fresh 4-month low of 1.5106.

Earlier on Wednesday, the UK released the latest review of its Q2 GDP, which came as expected at 0.7%. Yearly basis, growth reached 2.4%, missing expectations of 2.6%. A positive surprise came from the current account deficit that narrowed to £16.8B from a revised £24B in Q1.

Following the release, the GBP/USD pair advanced up to its daily high of 1.5213, where once again, selling interest contained the advance. The downward movement seems overdone, but there is no technical signal of a change in the ongoing bearish trend.

In short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is now below a mild bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have recovered some from oversold territory, but turned flat well below their mid-lines.

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In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA maintains its bearish slope above the current level, whilst the technical indicators have been rejected from their mid-lines, and head lower, supporting further declines on renewed selling interest below the 1.5130 level.
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Old Oct 5, 2015, 9:32am   #26
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EUR/USD Holds Off Daily Triangle

CapitalStreetFX started this thread Having traded as high as 1.1317, the EUR/USD pair closed the day around the 1.1200 level, maintaining its latest range on Friday. On daily basis, the pair has been developing within a triangle and approaches to its vortex, diminishing the validity of the figure.

On Friday, the pair tested both extremes of the figure, before settling midway, maintaining its latest range. In the same chart, the price is between its 20 and 100 SMAs, both horizontal, whilst the technical indicators are also flat, slightly below their mid-lines.

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In the 4 hours chart, the price is holding above its 20 SMA, but below its 100 and 200 SMAs, the Momentum indicator is aiming slightly higher from its 100 level, whilst the RSI indicator turned south around 51, all in line with the ongoing neutral technical stance.

An upward continuation will be confirmed with a technical break above the 1.1320/30 price zone, where the pair met selling interest during the last two weeks.

Earlier the US employment data disappointed big on Friday, with the country adding just 142,000 new jobs in September and wages holding unchanged monthly basis at 0.0%.

The worse-than-expected data led to speculation the US Federal Reserve will delay a rate hike beyond this 2015, which sent the American dollar sharply lower intraday, although the currency recovered most of the ground lost, particularly against the EUR, the GBP and the JPY.
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Old Oct 6, 2015, 10:24am   #27
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Gold Eyes $1159 Amid Strong Fundamentals

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Gold held just below a one-week high on Tuesday, eyeing $1159 in the near term, as investors bet sluggish US nonfarm payrolls data would deter the Federal Reserve from hiking rates this year, although some cautioned that profit taking could hurt the metal in the near term.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,136 an ounce by 0337 GMT. Prices had risen to $1,141.80 in the previous session, the highest since September 28, before closing down 0.2 per cent.

The metal is still largely holding on to Fridayís 2.2 per cent jump, the biggest one-day rise since January 15 following data that showed US employers slammed the brakes on hiring over the last two months.

Non-interest-paying gold had benefited from ultra-low US rates. But expectations that the Fed will move to hike rates for the first time in nearly a decade has seen the metal lose about 4 per cent of its value this year.

However, recent US data has not been robust. After last weekís soft jobs report, data on Monday showed the pace of growth in the US services sector decelerated in September as new orders and business activity slowed.

Meanwhile, SPDR Gold Trust, the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, saw a small outflow of 0.22 tonnes on Monday. That is the fundís first outflow in two weeks.
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Old Oct 7, 2015, 11:06am   #28
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EUR/USD Hits 1.1278, Whatís Next?

CapitalStreetFX started this thread The EUR/USD pair surged to a daily high of 1.1278, trading within a range and still confined in a daily triangle.

In short term, the upward momentum is fading in the 1 hour chart, as despite the price is well above its moving averages, the technical indicators are beginning to show signs of exhaustion near overbought territory.

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In the 4 hours chart the 20 SMA is now aiming higher around 1.1200, whilst the Momentum indicator turned south and is crossing now below its 100 level, whilst the RSI indicator stands flat around 58, all of which limits chances of additional gains, during the upcoming hours.

Elsewhere the dollar edged sharply lower across the board, led by a sharp advance in commodities prices, as gold hovered in the 1,150 region, whilst WTI surged above $48.00 a barrel, for the first time in over a month.

Additionally, the price is getting too close to the vortex of the figure, and it will be invalidate if itís not broken during the next couple of days. For this Wednesday, the roof of the figure is set at 1.1285, whilst the base stands now at 1.1160.

Data showed that in Germany, Factory orders were down 1.8% in August compared to July, and that the US trade balance deficit that widened to $48.3B in the same month, the largest expansion in US deficit in five months. The news boosted local share markets as sagging exports should put additional pressure on a FEDís possible rate hike.
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Old Oct 9, 2015, 11:47am   #29
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Crude Oil Inches Higher In Asia Amid FOMC Minutes

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Crude oil futures rose in early Asian trade on thin volumes after an influential forecaster predicted that a market rally was not far off and U.S. Federal Reserve minutes suggested there was no hurry to raise rates.

The gains added to a surge in prices on Thursday, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, on track for a near 11-percent gain this week, the biggest weekly rise since early 2009.

Brent was up 25 cents at $53.30 a barrel at 0306 GMT. The contract rose $1.72 to close at $53.05 a barrel on Thursday.

U.S. crude was 23 cents higher at $49.66 a barrel, after climbing 3.4 percent to close at $49.43 a barrel.

U.S. crude is heading for a gain of about 9 percent this week, the biggest weekly increase since August. The contract rose to above $50 on Thursday, the highest since July 22.

PIRA Energy Group, a closely watched forecaster that predicted the slump in oil prices a year ago, said on Thursday it expected crude prices to rise to $70 per barrel by the end of 2016 and $75 a barrel in 2017.
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Old Oct 12, 2015, 9:45am   #30
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Wall Street Closes the Best Week for 2015

CapitalStreetFX started this thread Wall Street closed with tepid gains on Friday, with the Dow Jones adding 33 points and ending the day at 17,084.49. The Nasdaq and the S&P added 0.41% and 0.07% respectively, in what has been one of the best weeks for this 2015.

The indexes extended their advance as investors weighed the latest FOMCí dovish Minutes, and more poor US data, as on Friday, news showed that import and export prices both fell in September, while wholesale sales slid 1.0% in August, far beyond expected.

Technically, the daily chart for the index shows that its stalled its advance a few points below its 100 DMA, while the technical indicators have lost their upward strength and turned flat near overbought levels, far from signaling an upcoming retracement.

Click the image to open in full size.

In shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the index is still well above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the RSI indicator turned slightly lower around 69 and the Momentum indicator heads slightly lower, but well above its mid-line.

Fridayís low at 17,003 is the level to watch as pullbacks towards it should attract buying interest to keep the upside favored.
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