Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

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Old Oct 9, 2015, 11:24am   #46
Joined Jul 2015
AUD/USD Breaks Major Resistance At 0.7220

Option_Banque started this thread The Aussie Dollar enjoyed a good run against the US dollar recently to trade above a major resistance area of 0.7220. The AUDUSD pair is following a nice bullish path for a move higher, and it looks set for more gains in the near term.

Technical Analysis

There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which might act as a support area if the pair corrects lower from the current levels. An initial support is around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last move from the 0.7163 low to 0.7276 high.

Click the image to open in full size.

On the upside, the recent high of 0.7276 can act as a minor resistance. A break above it could easily push the pair higher in the short term.

Australian Home Loans

Earlier during the Asian session, the Australian Home Loans that present the number of home loans and which indicates the housing market trend in Australia was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The forecast was lined up for an increase of 5% in August 2015, compared with the last reading of -0.3% (revised). However, the outcome was on the lower side, as the Home Loans increased by only 2.9%.

The report stated that the “trend estimate for the total value of dwelling finance commitments excluding alterations and additions rose 1.0%. Owner occupied housing commitments rose 1.9% while investment housing commitments fell 0.2%”.
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Old Oct 12, 2015, 9:31am   #47
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EUR/USD Eyes Critical Resistance At 1.1460

Option_Banque started this thread The dollar’s bearish momentum triggered by dovish Central Banks on Thursday extended on Friday, leading to a steady decline in the greenback to its lowest in several weeks against most of its major rivals.

As for this week several economies will release their September inflation figures, which may determinate if the ongoing dollar’s weakness is set to extend in term. An IMF meetings of central bankers and finance professionals is going on this weekend, and although no major announcements are expected, investors will be looking for any clues regarding upcoming economic decisions. Also, several FED’s officers are once again scheduled to speak, yet their words should have little effect on the market, will all eyes now in the month-end FED’s meeting.

As for the EUR/USD, the pair rose up to 1.1386 last Friday, closing at its highest in 6 weeks, at 1.1357 and maintaining a bullish tone. However, and from a technical point of view, the pair is not yet able to confirm a steadier continuation, given that the top of these last few months’ range stands at 1.1460, disregarding the Black Monday spike up to 1.1713.

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With the pair trading 100 pips below the critical resistance, the daily chart shows that, despite the price is above its moving averages, the indicators lack directional strength and remain horizontal.

In the same chart, the RSI indicator presents a bullish slope around 60, whilst the Momentum indicator has lost its upward strength, but holds above its mid-line, all of which supports additional gains for this Monday.

In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA maintains a bullish slope well below the current level, whilst the technical indicators have lost their upward strength, but hold near overbought levels. The pair needs now to advance beyond 1.1426, to test the critical resistance area around 1.1460, with a break above it, confirming a bullish continuation during the upcoming sessions.
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Old Oct 13, 2015, 12:08pm   #48
Joined Jul 2015
A Perfect Opportunity To Buy WFC Call Options

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Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) is fairly valued at $60 and, at the writing of this article, WFC is trading at around $52. Earnings will continue to grow around 3% in the near term and dividend per share payments will continue to rise. Outstanding shares have been increasing at around 3% for the last 7 years.

We believe that WFC’s earnings growth will continue at 3% in the short term largely because of the low interest rate environment. The Federal Reserve has given banks a godsend over the last 5 years with various programs to keep interest rates low. The low cost of borrowing money in recent years has allowed many banks, which make money on the spread at which they borrow versus the rate at which they lend, to re-capitalize.

Of the major banks, WFC weathered the financial crisis of 2008 better than most. The low borrowing rates combined with growth in customers and deposits point to decent growth in revenue and earnings going forward.

Over the last decade, WFC has reliably paid dividends to its shareholders. Between 2008 and 2015, dividends per share have increased on average by 12% a year. Much of that increase occurred in the last 3 years and we do not expect dividend growth to continue anywhere near 12% in the future. It should also be noted that the per share dividend only passed its 2007 level in 2013, and dividend payments in 2014 totaled about 33% of earnings. So there is room for the dividend to grow.

So considering the overall outlook, buying the long term call options for the company’s stock appears to be a good strategy.
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Old Oct 15, 2015, 11:32am   #49
Joined Jul 2015
EUR/USD Surges After Worse Than Expected Chinese Data

Option_Banque started this thread Chinese inflation data for September, was much worse than expected as the CPI rose by 0.1% compared to the previous month, when it rose 0.5%, whilst yearly basis, inflation was up 1.6% from the previous 2.0%. The Producer Price Index in the same month, surged by 0.1% against expectations of a 0.5% advance.

In Europe, peripheral country’s inflation came out negative, while the EU industrial production data for August, fell by 0.5%. It was however, US data that put the market in motion, as in September, the producer price index fell by 1.1% compared to a year before, whilst the core reading, excluding food and energy, reached 0.8% against expectations of a 1.2% advance and 0.9% previous.

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The EUR/USD pair surged to 1.1488 by the end of the US session, breaking higher on further speculation the US FED will refrain from rising rates this year. Technically speaking, selling interest has capped rallies around the current level since May this year – dismissing the Black Monday high of 1.1713 – which means that if the level is broken, the rally can extend over the upcoming sessions. The short term picture is bullish, despite the technical indicators are in overbought territory in the 1 hour chart, but there are no signs the pair may change course any time soon.

In the same chart, the price is well above its moving averages, all with strong bullish slopes, supporting further advances. In the 4 hours chart, the RSI indicator heads higher around 80, while the rest of the technical readings are in line with a continued advance. Nevertheless, some downward corrective movement should not be disregarded, with buyers most likely surging on approaches to the 1.1400 figure.
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Old Oct 19, 2015, 9:28am   #50
Joined Jul 2015
China’s Industrial Production Plunges More Than Expectations

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Industrial production in China fell more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Monday.

In a report, National Bureau of Statistics of China said that Chinese Industrial Production fell to 5.7%, from 6.1% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Chinese Industrial Production to fall to 6.0% last month.

Meanwhile, China’s economy expanded quicker than economists forecast in the third quarter as the services sector propped up the world’s second-largest economy, suggesting monetary and fiscal stimulus is keeping Premier Li Keqiang’s 2015 expansion target within reach.

Gross domestic product rose 6.9 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday, beating economists’ estimates for 6.8 percent. Still, that was the slowest quarterly expansion since the first three months of 2009, based off previously announced data.
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Old Oct 20, 2015, 10:48am   #51
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Precious Metals Slide Down Ahead Of Yellen Speech

Option_Banque started this thread [b]Precious Metals Slide Down Ahead Of Yellen Speech[b]

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Gold dipped in Asia on Tuesday with comments later in the day possible from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery fell 0.22% to $1,170.20.

Silver for December delivery fell 0.23% to $15.805 a troy ounce.

Copper for December delivery rose 0.25% to $2.369 a pound.

Investors await Yellen on Tuesday at a U.S. Department of Labor ceremony for further indications on whether the U.S. central bank could raise short-term interest rates at some point before the end of the year. A host of Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak this week before the Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day October meeting on Oct. 28.

A rate hike is viewed as bearish for gold, which struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets.

Overnight, gold futures tumbled by nearly 1% on Monday falling precipitously from three-month highs reached late last week, after quarterly GDP growth in China slumped below 7% for the first time since the height of the Financial Crisis.

On Monday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP growth grew at 6.9% for the third quarter, decelerating at the slowest pace in more than six years.

It marks the slowest period of growth in the world’s second-largest economy since the first quarter of 2009 when Chinese GDP rose by 6.2%. Analysts expected third quarter GDP in China to rise by 6.8% for the three-month period ending in September. The dismal reading could add pressure on the People’s Bank of China to introduce fresh stimulus measures following its shocking devaluation of the yuan in August. The subdued growth also exacerbates concerns that the PBOC could adjust its benchmark interest rate, while pushing lending rates down even further.
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Old Oct 21, 2015, 12:36pm   #52
Joined Jul 2015
Crude Oil Slides Down In Asia Amid Increase In Supply

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Crude prices fell in Asia on Wednesday as U.S. industry data pointed to a second straight massive build in stockpiles.

The American Petroleum Institute’s weekly crude inventory report showed a build of 7.1 million barrels last week for crude, though data on refined products was not immediately available.

Separately, a government report on Wednesday could show that U.S. stockpiles rose by 3.7 million barrels for the week ending on Oct. 16.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for December delivery fell 0.82% to $45.91 a barrel.

Also ahead, OPEC, the world’s largest oil cartel, will convene a special meeting on Wednesday in Vienna to discuss the current state of the global energy markets. Eight non-OPEC members, including Russia, Mexico and Brazil have been invited to participate in the meeting, Reuters reported.

In August, crude futures soared more than 25% in the span of three days, after reports surfaced that Venezuela had worked in conjunction with Russia to schedule an emergency OPEC meeting.
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Old Oct 22, 2015, 12:09pm   #53
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AUD/USD Remains Strong After Business Conditions News

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The Aussie held gains on Thursday despite a downbeat business confidence survey

AUD/USD traded at 0.7218, up 0.12%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 119.89, down 0.03%.

In Australia, the NAB quarterly business confidence survey fell to flat from plus-4 in the previous quarter.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell 0.02% at 95.06.

Overnight, the dollar moved slightly higher against the other major currencies on Wednesday, as the previous session’s U.S. housing sector data continued to support, while trading was expected to remain quiet with no major U.S. data to be released thoughout the day.

The greenback strengthened mildly after the U.S. Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that housing starts rose 6.5% to 1.206 million units last month from August’s total of 1.132 million units.

However, the report also showed that the number of building permits issued dropped by 5.0% to 1.103 million units from August’s total of 1.170 million.

Meanwhile, the single currency found some support ahead to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday amid speculation that it could flag plans to enlarge its stimulus program.
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Old Oct 23, 2015, 8:54am   #54
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Commodity Prices Rise In Asia Amid Global Monetary Policy Outlook

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Gold prices rose in Asia on Friday as investors looked ahead to continued easy global monetary policies.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery rose 0.24% to $1,168.80 a troy ounce.

Silver for December delivery gained 0.37% to $15.895 a troy ounce.

Copper for December delivery inched up 0.05% to $2.384 a pound.

Overnight, Gold futures were relatively flat on Thursday in spite of a surging dollar, after European Central Bank president Mario Draghi rattled global markets with strong hints that the bank is ready to lower interest rates and extend the scope of its comprehensive quantitative easing program.

Speaking at a press conference following the completion of a two-day meeting in Malta, Draghi signaled that the ECB is prepared to cut interest rates in the euro zone from their current record-low of 0.5%.

Draghi also implied that the ECB will likely ramp up its EUR 60 billion a month bond buying program, as early as its policy meeting in Frankfurt on Dec. 3.
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Old Oct 26, 2015, 8:26am   #55
Joined Jul 2015
Oil Prices Rise Amid China’s Rate Cut

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Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Monday as investors saw a rate cut by China as a boost for demand prospects.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in November rose 0.16% to $44.67 a barrel.

On Friday, the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.35%, the latest in a series of measures aimed at stimulating economic activity and boosting growth.

It was the sixth rate cut over the past 12 months, fueling concerns that economic growth is weakening more than is currently expected.

The moves come several days after Chinese government data showed third-quarter economic growth slowed to 6.9%, the first time since the global financial crisis that the country’s gross domestic product has grown less than 7%.

China is the world’s second largest oil consumer after the U.S. and has been the engine of strengthening demand.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve for fresh indications on the timing of an initial rate hike.

Market participants will also be awaiting a preliminary estimate of third quarter growth from the U.S. on Thursday to gauge the strength of the economy.

Last week, crude oil futures fell to three-week lows on Friday, as a stronger U.S. dollar coupled with ongoing concerns over the current glut in global supplies drove down prices.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for December delivery slumped 9 cents, or 0.19%, on Friday to close at $47.99 a barrel. It earlier fell to $47.45, the lowest since October 2.

On the week, New York-traded oil futures plunged $2.67, or 5.63%, as traders focused on the current glut in supplies despite a tighter production outlook.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories rose by 8.0 million barrels last week. Market analysts’ expected a crude-stock rise of 3.9 million barrels.
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Old Oct 27, 2015, 7:49am   #56
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Oil Plunges Ahead Of US Inventory Data

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Oil prices fell on Tuesday, on course for a third week of losses as U.S. inventory data is expected to show another increase in crude stocks.

Brent (LCOc1) for December delivery had fallen 38 cents to $47.16 a barrel by 10.25 p.m. ET, after settling the previous session down 45 cents, or almost 1 percent.

U.S. crude (CLc1) for December delivery dropped 51 cents to $43.47 a barrel, having ended the day before down 62 cents, or 1.4 percent.

U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles likely rose for a fifth straight week, by an average of 3 million barrels to 479.6 million, in the week ended Oct. 23, a preliminary Reuters survey taken ahead of industry and official inventory data, showed on Monday.

While stocks of distillates, which include diesel and jet fuel, were seen falling 2 million barrels, storage utilization for distillates in the U.S. and Europe is nearing historic highs, according to a report on Monday by Goldman Sachs (N:GS). [EIA/S]

That includes the outcome of a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Committee policy meeting which starts later on Tuesday and China’s fifth plenum, a four-day meeting of the Communist Party’s central committee, that began on Monday.

China’s policy meeting is expected to set a 7-percent annual growth target in its 13th Five-Year plan, a blueprint for economic and social development between 2016 and 2020.
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Old Oct 28, 2015, 8:32am   #57
Joined Jul 2015
AUD/USD Slides Down After Worse Than Expected CPI

Option_Banque started this thread The Aussie fell sharply on Wednesday after a slower pace of consumer prices than expected ahead of the latest Federal Reserve views on interest rates.

AUD/USD fell 0.93% to 0.7123, after the data, while USD/JPY changed hands at 120.44, down 0.01%, after disappointing retail sales.

In Australia, consumer prices for the third quarter rose 0.5%, against a gain of 0.6% expected quarter-on-quarter and an annual pace of 1.5%, compared to 1.7% seen.

In Japan, retail sales fell an unexpected 0.2% as retail fuel sales slumped, against a gain of 0.4% seen year-on-year for September for the first year-on-year drop in six months.

Investors were looking ahead to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Fed for fresh indications on the timing of an initial rate hike.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.05% to 97.08.

Overnight, the dollar was little changed against the other major currencies on Tuesday, after the release of weak U.S. economic reports as investors remained focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.

The Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence fell to 97.6 this month from a reading of 102.6 in September, whose figure was revised from a previously reported 103.0. Analysts expected the index to rise to 103.0 in October.

The report came after U.S. Commerce Department said that total durable goods orders decreased by 1.2% last month, matching forecasts. Orders for durable goods in August were revised to a drop of 3.0% from a previously reported decline of 2.3%.

Core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile transportation items, fell 0.4% in September, compared to expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Core durable goods orders slumped 0.9% in August.

Last edited by Option_Banque; Oct 28, 2015 at 8:45am. Reason: Wrong Heading
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Old Oct 30, 2015, 11:13am   #58
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Crude Oil Plunges In Asia Amid US Growth Pessimism

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Crude futures dropped in early Asian trading on Friday after the release of a report showing that U.S. economic growth had slowed sharply, reinforcing concerns about sluggish demand in a world awash with oil.

U.S. economic growth braked sharply in the third quarter as businesses cut back on restocking warehouses to work off an inventory glut, data showed.

Both of the main crude benchmarks are on track to post their first weekly gains in three weeks, but with oil still being added to inventories, prices are likely to be rangebound in the coming weeks, traders and analysts said.

U.S. crude was down 24 cents at $45.82 a barrel at 0140 GMT, after rising 12 cents in the previous session. The benchmark is on track to post a gain of 2.7 percent this week.

Brent crude fell 11 cents to $48.69 a barrel after ending 20 cents lower on Thursday and is heading for an increase of 1.5 percent this week.

The sluggish U.S. growth figures and weak home sales numbers have tempered the market’s positive reaction to government figures earlier in the week showing oil stockpiles last week had increased by 3.4 million barrels, which was below the estimate from an industry group.

That had sent prices sharply higher with U.S. crude rallying nearly $3 a barrel.
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Old Nov 2, 2015, 9:00am   #59
Joined Jul 2015
AUD/USD Rises After Better Than Expected Caixin Survey

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The Aussie gained in Asia on Monday as the Caixin survey on manufacturing came in better than expected.

USD/JPY changed hands at 120.44, down 0.15%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7136, flat, from negative territory before the Caixin survey. The Aussie’s fortunes are closely linked to commodity exports to China.

The Caixin manufacturing index for October rose to 48.3 with against 47.5 expected and up from last month’s 47.2.

In Australia, the AI Group manufacturing survey fell 1.9 points to 50.2. The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for October was unchanged from the previous month as tradable inflation fell for the first time in four months and the pace of non-tradable inflation remained stable.

Also in Australia, building approvals rose 2.2%, better than the 2.0% gain seen, and supporting the Reserve Bank’s forecast for continued growth in building construction. The RBA’s latest view on housing construction will be seen in the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy due Friday.

China’s weak start to the fourth quarter was evident by the two official PMIs released over the weekend, suggesting that the economy is showing little response to this year’s monetary easing.

The official manufacturing PMI for October, released on Sunday by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in with a reading of 49.8, the same as September, below the 50 level that marks contraction and expansion.

The official non-manufacturing PMI, also released on Sunday, slipped to 53.1 from 53.4 in September, the lowest reading since December 2008.

The PMIs offer the latest evidence that the economy is under increasing stress. China’s biggest industrial companies are coming out with lousy nine-month results.
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Old Nov 3, 2015, 10:51am   #60
Joined Jul 2015
Euro/Dollar Finds Support At 1.10

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EUR/USD posted modest gains on Monday to remain above 1.10, amid a wave of mixed manufacturing data around the globe.

The currency pair traded in a tight range between 1.1001 and 1.1053 before settling at 1.1013, up 0.0009 or 0.08% on the day. The euro closed above 1.10 against the dollar for the third consecutive. Last week, the pair fell below 1.09 to fresh two-month lows following hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve on the increasing likelihood of an interest rate hike before the end of the year. Over the last month of trading, the pair has fallen in value by approximately 1.5%.

EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.0894, the low from October 28 and was met with resistance at 1.1489, the high from Oct. 14.

On Monday morning, research firm Markit reported that its U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index in October ticked up 0.1 from its preliminary reading to 54.1, gaining a full point from its level in September. At 54.1, the index surged to its highest level since May. Analysts on the whole expected the index to fall within a consensus range of 53.0 to 54.5 in October.

In Europe, overall export levels surged in October to a four-month high while total order growth across the euro zone rose to its highest level since April, 2014. While manufacturing growth in France accelerated at a modest pace last month, factory activity growth in Germany slowed as its manufacturing PMI fell by 0.2 to 52.1. Manufacturing activity, though, accelerated in Italy, Netherland and Austria, where it reached a 20-month high at 53.0.

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