Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

This is a discussion on Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1145 on Friday, down for a second week in-a-row as the ECB dovish tone weighed. ...

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Old Sep 7, 2015, 10:00am   #25
Joined Jul 2015
EUR/USD May Test 1.1080 Support Amid NFP Release

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The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1145 on Friday, down for a second week in-a-row as the ECB dovish tone weighed.
Technically, the daily chart shows that the price managed to close the day slightly above the 100 and 200 SMAs, but below the 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator heads lower around the 100 level and the RSI hovers around 47, maintaining the risk towards the downside.
The daily 200 SMA stands around 1.1090, from where the pair bounced several times over the last few trading days. In the 4 hours chart, the price is below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators lack directional strength, but remain below their mid-lines, supporting a downward continuation on a break below the 1.1080 support.
Meanwhile US Nonfarm Payrolls mixed expectations as the economy created 173K new jobs in August, against 220K expected. Unemployment rate however, fell down to 5.1%, whilst wages ticked higher, up to 0.3%. July figures were revised higher, as the economy added 245K back then. The mixed result was not enough to confirm a FEDís September rate hike, neither to deny it.
Stocks closed in the red, and the major indexes seem poised to retest the lows reached during the Black Monday, with Chinese economic slowdown still as the main marketsí theme for the upcoming days probably favoring more risk aversion trading.
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Old Sep 8, 2015, 10:56am   #26
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Oil Looks Vulnerable Ahead of Major Economic Releases

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Oil prices were down slightly on Monday as traders start to position ahead of economic growth data from the eurozone due out this week.

On Londonís ICE Futures, trading in the global crude benchmark Brent was down 0.55% at $49.06 a barrel for cargoes loading in October. Trade in WTI was also extremely slow, with prices down 0.5% at $45.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Traders said volumes were subdued, with the U.S. market closed for the Labor Day holiday.

European nations are expected to report their second-quarter growth numbers later this week, and disappointing data could depress the oil market, traders said. Singapore-based Phillip Futures believes the Brent and WTI prices to $46.81 and $43.53 respectively by Friday.

Increasing supply from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, especially from Iran, further dampens any bullish sentiment.
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Old Sep 9, 2015, 9:17am   #27
Joined Jul 2015
Buying Gold Call Options at $1100 May Be A Good Strategy

Option_Banque started this thread Gold prices posted quite limited intraday gains yesterday, with spot hovering around $ 1,122.70 a troy ounce by US close, as surging risk appetite sent investors away from the safe-haven asset.

The downside, however, was limited as commodities traded generally higher, following mining-related shares.

Additionally, investors prefer to remain away from the metal, as the US FED meeting looms, with the Central Bank suspected to make its first rate hike which will be the first since 2006.

On daily basis, the downward potential remains strong, as the price is back below its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators remain well below their mid-lines, with limited downward momentum.

In shorter term, the 4 hours chart presents a neutral stance, as the price hovers around its 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators lack directional strength around their mid-lines.

Click the image to open in full size.

The main support continues to be the 1,109.20 region, and it will take a break below it to confirm additional declines, back towards the July low at 1,071.00. So based on overall analysis, buying gold call options at $1100 may be a good strategy.
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Old Sep 10, 2015, 10:33am   #28
Joined Jul 2015
J&J Ė A Hot Stock For Call Options

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Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) now trades at its own ten-year valuation. Shares are down significantly since broader market corrections. Big capital gains are not likely here, but investors will get a 3.3% dividend yield with high-single digit dividend growth and a long runway of growth ahead.

Since 2009, J&J has raised its dividend by 7.7% each year. Since 2000, J&J has raised dividends by around 11% per year on average. J&J is a high-quality company that should fit in many dividend portfolios. Unfortunately for perspective buyers, over the last four years, J&J has been overvalued to its historical valuation. The recent pullback has changed that, and so dividend investors once again have the opportunity to get a stake in J&J for a reasonable price.

So, is J&J a screaming buy call options right here? Probably yes as per overall fundamental outlook.
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Old Sep 11, 2015, 11:46am   #29
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EUR/USD Bulls Gain Momentum After Poor US Data

Option_Banque started this thread The EUR/USD pair yesterday ended the day near its high, around the 61.8% retracement of the latest bullish run up to 1.1713, and the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators are giving signs of exhaustion in overbought territory, whilst the price has managed to advance well above its moving averages.

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In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have bounced from their mid-lines and maintain their bullish slopes, whilst the 20 SMA heads slightly higher around the 1.1190 level. September high at 1.1331 is now the immediate resistance, followed by the 50% retracement of the same rally at 1.1365.

Poor US data triggered a dollar sell-off during the American afternoon, with the EUR/USD pair reaching 1.1294 a fresh weekly high.

US wholesale inventories decreased by 0.1%, while wholesale sales dropped 0.3% in July. Also, import prices declined 1.8% in August following a 0.9% drop the previous month, mostly due to lower fuel prices.

Prices exports also fell in by 1.4% a 0.4% decline in the previous month. Weekly unemployment claims edged at 275K as expected. This data is hardly able to trigger a 100 pips movement as it did this Thursday, but as FEDís meeting looms, uncertainty weighs, resulting in crazy spikes either side of the board.
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Old Sep 14, 2015, 10:02am   #30
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EUR/USD Eyes 1.1445 Ahead Of Key Releases

Option_Banque started this thread The EUR/USD managed to close the week at its highest since August 27th, reaching 1.1348 before settling at 1.1335.Technically, bulls continue dominating the pair, as the daily chart shows that the rally extended well above its 100 DMA in the 1.1100 region, whilst the 20 SMA heads higher around 1.1275, reinforcing the static support placed at 1.1282, the 61.8% retracement of its latest bullish run.

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In the same chart, the Momentum indicator is around its 100 level with a sharp upward slope, whilst the RSI indicator heads higher around 59. In the 4 hours chart the price is also above a bullish 20 SMA, although the technical indicators have lost upward strength and turned flat, with the RSI at 70.

The immediate resistance comes at 1.1365, the 50% retracement of the same rally, with a break above it favoring a steady continuation towards the 1.1440/50 price zone.

Meanwhile the upcoming FED meeting this Wednesday, is probably the most awaited event of the year, as the Central Bank will unveil whether or not is ready to raise rates. Majors are expected to react to Chinese weekend data at this week opening, but will hardly rally ahead of the US Central Bank meeting.

Chinaís industrial production growth remained weak in August, reaching 6.1% compared to a year before, but marginally higher from the 6.0% printed last month. Also, growth in fixed asset investment slowed to its lowest rate growth in over three years in August, down to 9.2% from 10.3% previous.
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Old Sep 15, 2015, 9:26am   #31
Joined Jul 2015
Buy The GAP Call Options Now Before Itís Too Late

Option_Banque started this thread Click the image to open in full size.

The Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) is a big and well-known apparel company with a market capitalization of about $13B. Its main business is designing, manufacturing, and selling apparel for men, women, and children.

Despite of the slowing revenue growth, Old Navyís sales continue to grow fast, and in the near future, they will offset the negative growth of other brands.

During the last 52 weeks, GPS has been showing terrible results. Its stock price has decreased by circa 27%, while the Nasdaq Composite has increased by 5% (see Diagrams 2 and 3). The main causes for such results are lowering revenue growth on the one hand and the fact that company uses cash only for buybacks.

However, it looks like that the stock is worth buying, as it is a strong brand with a successful history to back it up. In fiscal 2006, the company hit a revenue ceiling of $16B and stopped growing. However, since the revenue bottom of $14.5B in fiscal 2010, Gap Inc. has shown nearly 16% growth, which can be a sign for future development.

Gap looks significantly undervalued, according to overall fundamental outlook, which is why we recommend buying the call options in the stock now.
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Old Sep 16, 2015, 9:55am   #32
Joined Jul 2015
Pound May Be A Good Choice For Call Trades

Option_Banque started this thread The British Pound was the first to capitulate against dollar strength, as an early advance stalled short from the weekly high, with the pair in a steady slide ever since reaching 1.5460.

Britainís inflation was as expected unchanged in August, down from the 0.1% printed in July, whilst the core reading decreased to 1.0% from the previous 1.2%, also in line with marketīs expectations. An upside surprise in the Retail Price index, up y 0.5% in the same month, partially limited the negative effects of the main headline.

Nevertheless, the pair fell down to the 1.5330 where it stands by the end of the day. The 1 hour chart shows that the price fell well below a now bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are losing their bearish strength in oversold levels, rather signaling some short term consolidation ahead than a sign of downward exhaustion.

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In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA is turning lower in the 1.5420 region, whilst the Momentum indicator stands flat below the 100 level, and the RSI heads lower around 39, anticipating additional declines.

The pair has an immediate support around 1.5320, the 23.6% retracement of the latest decline, with a break below it exposing the pair to a steady decline towards the 1.5250 price zone.
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