Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

This is a discussion on Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; The GBP/USD pair remained capped by the 1.5700 figure for a second day in-a-row, having been as low as 1.5602 ...

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Old Aug 21, 2015, 6:58am   #16
Joined Jul 2015
Pound Struggles at 1.5700 Resistance Amid Weak Retail Sales

Option_Banque started this thread The GBP/USD pair remained capped by the 1.5700 figure for a second day in-a-row, having been as low as 1.5602 daily basis, following the release of the UK Retail Sales data.

In July, Britainís retail sales rose 0.1%, below markets expectations of a 0.4% advance, up 4.2% on the year, slightly below the 4.4% forecast.

Nevertheless, the pair recovered the lost ground, ending the day right below the critical figure, and supporting additional advances, on a break above 1.5715, the immediate resistance.

Talking about the short term, scenario, the 1 hour chart shows that the price has bounced from a flat 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are aiming higher above their mid-lines, maintaining a tepid bullish slope.

Click the image to open in full size.
In the 4 hours chart the price has managed to hold above a mild-bullish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator turned sharply higher from the 100 level and the RSI indicator slowly advances around 58, all of which suggests further gains are likely, up to the 1.5770 strong static resistance level.
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Old Aug 24, 2015, 6:48am   #17
Joined Jul 2015
USD/JPY Continues Steep Losses Amid Chinaís Economic Slowdown

Option_Banque started this thread The USD/JPY pair lost 150 pips on Friday, closing at its lowest level since mid July. The Japanese yen was boosted by the ongoing risk aversion sentiment triggered by China’s economic slowdown, and fading expectations over a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in September.
The pair extended downside movement on Monday, sliding down to less than 120.80 during the Asian session.
Additionally, US 10-year yields fell down to 2.05%, boosting the Japanese currency, while macroeconomic data in Japan, continues to be up beating.
The pair has broken below its 100 DMA now around 122.80 and a major resistance for the upcoming days, and the daily chart favors a continued decline towards the 200 DMA, currently at 120.80, as the technical indicators head almost vertically lower, now approaching oversold readings.
Click the image to open in full size.
Intraday, the pair is extremely oversold, with the RSI indicator hardly losing its bearish momentum around 14. Despite the extreme oversold readings, the pair may well extend its decline, without much of an upward correction in between, particularly on a break below 121.80, last Friday’s low.
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Old Aug 25, 2015, 7:15am   #18
Joined Jul 2015
Eur/usd skyrockets to the highest level since january

Option_Banque started this thread The EUR/USD pair surged to a daily high of 1.1713, before giving up half of its intraday gains, closing the day however, at levels not seen since January this year.
The 1 hour chart shows that pair retreated down to 1.1517 after reaching the mentioned high, struggling now a few pips above the 38.2% retracement of todayís run at 1.1580.
In the same chart, the technical indicators have corrected extreme overbought readings and stabilized well above their mid-lines, whilst the 20 SMA heads strongly higher, converging with the 61.8% retracement of the same rally around 1.1500.
Click the image to open in full size.
In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are slowly beginning to ease, but remain in extreme overbought territory, with the RSI indicator around 90. The wild moves are far from over, and with the Asian opening, the market could run again into panic, making of the technical indicators, worthless intraday tools.
In the meantime, Panic selling took over markets after the Shanghai Composite added another 8.5% decline to last week losses. Stocks sunk worldwide, dragging the USD hundreds of pips lower at the beginning of the American session.
European stocks lost over 4%, whilst US indexes also closed sharply lower. Commodities also collapsed to multi-year lows. Despite the markets have stabilized by the end of the US session, the risk of another round of panic selling looms ahead of the Asian opening. Chinaís Central Bank may take additional measures, exacerbating the risk aversion sentiment. Additionally, chances of a September rate hike have decreased almost to zero with the latest marketsí developments, which will also weighed on stocks.
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Old Aug 26, 2015, 7:12am   #19
Joined Jul 2015
EURUSD Still Looks Good For Call Options

Option_Banque started this thread The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.1396 before recovering towards the 1.1500 level by the end of the day, as Wall Street reversed its intraday gains and closed the day 200 points down after having posted gains of nearly 450 points earlier in the day.
In short term, the pair seems to have found a short term bottom, as in the 1 hour chart, the technical indicators are recovering partially from near oversold levels, whilst the 100 SMA has advanced well above the 200 SMA, both below the current level, with the shortest offering a strong support around 1.1345.
Click the image to open in full size.
In the 4 hours chart the price is recovering after a brief decline below its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have erased their overbought readings, and now aim slightly higher, well above their mid-lines. Nevertheless, to confirm a stronger recovery, the pair needs to advance beyond 1.1500, the 61.8% retracement of Mondayís fall.
Meanwhile positive data came from Germany, with the final GDP figures for the second quarter of this year matched expectations and the previous review, increasing by 0.4% in the three months ending June and compared to the first quarter of the year, leaving the annual growth rate at 1.6%.
Additionally, the country released its IFO survey, which resulted above expectations in all of its readings. Expectations rose to 102.2 against expectations of 102.00, whilst the Business Climate surged to 108.3 vs. 107.7 expected.
Mid European morning, Chinaís central bank cut its benchmark lending rate for the fifth time in nine months and also lowered it RRR, quite an unusual movement, in another desperate attempt to control stocks, and prevent the economy from shrinking further.
US data resulted mixes, with sales of new homes up 5.4% in July, to 507,000 missing expectations of 520,000, whilst the Markit Services PMI resulted at 55.2 in August against the 56.0 expected, although Consumer confidence rebounded in August, printing 101.5 up from 91.0 in July.
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Old Aug 27, 2015, 7:06am   #20
Joined Jul 2015
Cable Looks Good For Put Options

Option_Banque started this thread The British Pound plummeted to a fresh 2-week low against the greenback, as fears of a delay in a possible rate hike extended to the UK.
The GBP/USD lost over 200 pips daily basis, having been under pressure ever since the European opening, and with no clear catalyst behind the early decline, later supported by dollarís demand.
The pair trades back around the base of these last 2-month range, which increases the potential of a mid-bearish continuation after the failed upward breakout, earlier this week.
Click the image to open in full size.
In short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators are starting to look exhausted towards the downside in extreme oversold levels, but remain far from suggesting an upward correction ahead, whilst the 20 SMA heads sharply lower well above the current price.
In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator heads sharply lower , despite being in oversold territory, whilst the RSI indicator heads lower around 27.
Due to the sharp decline and the fact that the price is at a critical support level, the pair may see some consolidation, or even a shallow bounce, before setting another directional move, yet as long as the price remains below 1.5520, the risk remains towards the downside.
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Old Aug 28, 2015, 7:04am   #21
Joined Jul 2015
FTSE100 Surges More Than 200 Points Amid Rally In Chinese Stocks

Option_Banque started this thread The London benchmark, the FTSE 100, gained 2.56% or 220 points, closing the day at 6,192.03, with the advanced led by mining-related shares amid surging Chinese stocks.
Anglo American added 9.5%, Antofagasta jumped 9.5% and Rio Tinto closed up 7%. The index has extended is recovery above Fridayís close, up on the week by 60 points.
Technically, the daily chart shows that the technical indicators maintain their upward strength, but remain still below their mid-lines, whilst the 20 SMA heads strongly lower around 6,470.
In the 4 hours chart, the upside is also favored as the index is now above its 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator heads sharply higher above its 100 level and the RSI is slowly resuming its advance around 52.
Click the image to open in full size.
The daily high stands at 6,231, with an upward acceleration above it supporting a continued advance for this Friday.
Meanwhile US indexes closed sharply higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing the day at 16,654.90 up 370 points or 2.27%, the best two-day point gain ever, following Wednesday advance of 619 points.
The S&P and the Nasdaq rose around 2.45% each, supported by easing concerns over China and a strong US GDP advanced reading for the second quarter of this 2015. The Dow is now above its Fridayís close, finally positive in the week.
Click the image to open in full size.
Technically, the daily chart shows that the technical indicators have continued recovering ground from extreme oversold readings, but are still in negative territory, whilst the moving averages are far above the current level.
In the shorter term, the index is biased higher, as the 4 hours chart shows that the 20 SMA is turning higher well below the current level, whilst the technical indicators maintain strong bullish slopes above their mid-lines.
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Old Sep 3, 2015, 5:14am   #22
 
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Joined Sep 2015
nice analysis
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Old Sep 3, 2015, 5:00pm   #23
Joined Jul 2015
Gold Ė XAU

Option_Banque started this thread Click the image to open in full size.

Gold closed down on Wednesday and made its intraday high of US$1142.35/ounce after setting intraday low of US$1132.03/ounce. Gold went down by 0.489% at US$1133.76/ounce.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1130) and breakage below will call for 1124-1116. MACD is above zero line but histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring pessimistic stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving Positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Spot gold is expected to rise towards a range of $1,137-$1,143 per ounce, as indicated by a double-bottom and a Fibonacci retracement analysis. However, this pattern could only be confirmed when gold climbs above $1,131. Support will be at $1,125, the 14.6 percent level, a break below which could signal a continuation of the downtrend towards $1,117.35.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1142-1162 keeping stop loss above 1162 and targeting 11137-1124 and 1116-1109; breakage above 1169 will be buy call keeping target of 1174-1179. Buy above 1124-1109 with risk below 1101, targeting 1136-1145 and 1154-116.
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Old Sep 4, 2015, 3:55pm   #24
Joined Jul 2015
FTSE Poised For Major Move Amid NFP Release

Option_Banque started this thread
Click the image to open in full size.
The FTSE 100 followed European equities higher, with the London benchmark advancing 1.82% and closing the day at 6,194.10, after the ECB suggested it could extend its bond buying program, if required.

Airlines were among the biggest winners, after Easyjet forecast profits of between £675m and £700m thanks to record traffic figures, ending up 5.4%, whilst IAG surged also with the news, up 4.6%. For more forex technical analysis articles you may visit fxbinarypoint forum.

The index has now more technical chances of extend its advance, as the technical indicators surged above previous weekly highs and maintain their bullish strength, although still below their mid-lines.

The 20 SMA in the same chart heads sharply lower well above the current level, which means the downward risk is not over yet. In the 4 hours chart, the outlook is less clear, as despite the index holds above a mild bullish 20 SMA, the technical indicators turned lower around their mid-lines, limiting chances of a stronger advance, unless the index managed to extend beyond 6,259, last Fridayís high
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Old Sep 7, 2015, 10:00am   #25
Joined Jul 2015
EUR/USD May Test 1.1080 Support Amid NFP Release

Option_Banque started this thread Click the image to open in full size.
The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1145 on Friday, down for a second week in-a-row as the ECB dovish tone weighed.
Technically, the daily chart shows that the price managed to close the day slightly above the 100 and 200 SMAs, but below the 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator heads lower around the 100 level and the RSI hovers around 47, maintaining the risk towards the downside.
The daily 200 SMA stands around 1.1090, from where the pair bounced several times over the last few trading days. In the 4 hours chart, the price is below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators lack directional strength, but remain below their mid-lines, supporting a downward continuation on a break below the 1.1080 support.
Meanwhile US Nonfarm Payrolls mixed expectations as the economy created 173K new jobs in August, against 220K expected. Unemployment rate however, fell down to 5.1%, whilst wages ticked higher, up to 0.3%. July figures were revised higher, as the economy added 245K back then. The mixed result was not enough to confirm a FEDís September rate hike, neither to deny it.
Stocks closed in the red, and the major indexes seem poised to retest the lows reached during the Black Monday, with Chinese economic slowdown still as the main marketsí theme for the upcoming days probably favoring more risk aversion trading.
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Old Sep 8, 2015, 10:56am   #26
Joined Jul 2015
Oil Looks Vulnerable Ahead of Major Economic Releases

Option_Banque started this thread Click the image to open in full size.

Oil prices were down slightly on Monday as traders start to position ahead of economic growth data from the eurozone due out this week.

On Londonís ICE Futures, trading in the global crude benchmark Brent was down 0.55% at $49.06 a barrel for cargoes loading in October. Trade in WTI was also extremely slow, with prices down 0.5% at $45.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Traders said volumes were subdued, with the U.S. market closed for the Labor Day holiday.

European nations are expected to report their second-quarter growth numbers later this week, and disappointing data could depress the oil market, traders said. Singapore-based Phillip Futures believes the Brent and WTI prices to $46.81 and $43.53 respectively by Friday.

Increasing supply from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, especially from Iran, further dampens any bullish sentiment.
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Old Sep 9, 2015, 9:17am   #27
Joined Jul 2015
Buying Gold Call Options at $1100 May Be A Good Strategy

Option_Banque started this thread Gold prices posted quite limited intraday gains yesterday, with spot hovering around $ 1,122.70 a troy ounce by US close, as surging risk appetite sent investors away from the safe-haven asset.

The downside, however, was limited as commodities traded generally higher, following mining-related shares.

Additionally, investors prefer to remain away from the metal, as the US FED meeting looms, with the Central Bank suspected to make its first rate hike which will be the first since 2006.

On daily basis, the downward potential remains strong, as the price is back below its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators remain well below their mid-lines, with limited downward momentum.

In shorter term, the 4 hours chart presents a neutral stance, as the price hovers around its 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators lack directional strength around their mid-lines.

Click the image to open in full size.

The main support continues to be the 1,109.20 region, and it will take a break below it to confirm additional declines, back towards the July low at 1,071.00. So based on overall analysis, buying gold call options at $1100 may be a good strategy.
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Old Sep 10, 2015, 10:33am   #28
Joined Jul 2015
J&J Ė A Hot Stock For Call Options

Option_Banque started this thread Click the image to open in full size.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) now trades at its own ten-year valuation. Shares are down significantly since broader market corrections. Big capital gains are not likely here, but investors will get a 3.3% dividend yield with high-single digit dividend growth and a long runway of growth ahead.

Since 2009, J&J has raised its dividend by 7.7% each year. Since 2000, J&J has raised dividends by around 11% per year on average. J&J is a high-quality company that should fit in many dividend portfolios. Unfortunately for perspective buyers, over the last four years, J&J has been overvalued to its historical valuation. The recent pullback has changed that, and so dividend investors once again have the opportunity to get a stake in J&J for a reasonable price.

So, is J&J a screaming buy call options right here? Probably yes as per overall fundamental outlook.
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Old Sep 11, 2015, 11:46am   #29
Joined Jul 2015
EUR/USD Bulls Gain Momentum After Poor US Data

Option_Banque started this thread The EUR/USD pair yesterday ended the day near its high, around the 61.8% retracement of the latest bullish run up to 1.1713, and the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators are giving signs of exhaustion in overbought territory, whilst the price has managed to advance well above its moving averages.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have bounced from their mid-lines and maintain their bullish slopes, whilst the 20 SMA heads slightly higher around the 1.1190 level. September high at 1.1331 is now the immediate resistance, followed by the 50% retracement of the same rally at 1.1365.

Poor US data triggered a dollar sell-off during the American afternoon, with the EUR/USD pair reaching 1.1294 a fresh weekly high.

US wholesale inventories decreased by 0.1%, while wholesale sales dropped 0.3% in July. Also, import prices declined 1.8% in August following a 0.9% drop the previous month, mostly due to lower fuel prices.

Prices exports also fell in by 1.4% a 0.4% decline in the previous month. Weekly unemployment claims edged at 275K as expected. This data is hardly able to trigger a 100 pips movement as it did this Thursday, but as FEDís meeting looms, uncertainty weighs, resulting in crazy spikes either side of the board.
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Old Sep 14, 2015, 10:02am   #30
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EUR/USD Eyes 1.1445 Ahead Of Key Releases

Option_Banque started this thread The EUR/USD managed to close the week at its highest since August 27th, reaching 1.1348 before settling at 1.1335.Technically, bulls continue dominating the pair, as the daily chart shows that the rally extended well above its 100 DMA in the 1.1100 region, whilst the 20 SMA heads higher around 1.1275, reinforcing the static support placed at 1.1282, the 61.8% retracement of its latest bullish run.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the same chart, the Momentum indicator is around its 100 level with a sharp upward slope, whilst the RSI indicator heads higher around 59. In the 4 hours chart the price is also above a bullish 20 SMA, although the technical indicators have lost upward strength and turned flat, with the RSI at 70.

The immediate resistance comes at 1.1365, the 50% retracement of the same rally, with a break above it favoring a steady continuation towards the 1.1440/50 price zone.

Meanwhile the upcoming FED meeting this Wednesday, is probably the most awaited event of the year, as the Central Bank will unveil whether or not is ready to raise rates. Majors are expected to react to Chinese weekend data at this week opening, but will hardly rally ahead of the US Central Bank meeting.

Chinaís industrial production growth remained weak in August, reaching 6.1% compared to a year before, but marginally higher from the 6.0% printed last month. Also, growth in fixed asset investment slowed to its lowest rate growth in over three years in August, down to 9.2% from 10.3% previous.
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