Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

This is a discussion on Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; The greenback saw some limited demand during the first two sessions of the day, reversing sharply lower against the Euro ...

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Old Aug 11, 2015, 7:39am   #9
Joined Jul 2015
EURUSD Eyes 1.1435 As Bulls Gain Strength

Option_Banque started this thread The greenback saw some limited demand during the first two sessions of the day, reversing sharply lower against the Euro on the back of FED’s officers comments that toned down a rate hike in September.
The vice chairman of the US Central Bank, Stanley Fischer, said that they are still concerned about low inflation and won’t move before it sees inflation returning to more normal levels.
Following his words, Dennis Lockhart pledge once again for a rate hike, but this time he said it should come soon, omitting to refer explicitly to September as he did during the past week, triggering a USD sell-off.
The EUR/USD pair advanced to a daily high of 1.1041 before stalling, and holds firm above the 1.1000 level by the end of the day.
Click the image to open in full size.
The technical picture is still bullish in the short term, as the 1 hour chart shows that the price extended well above its moving averages, with the shortest above the largest and maintaining its bullish slope. In the same chart, the technical indicators have lost their upward strength, but remain above their mid-lines.
In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators maintain a strong upward momentum whilst the 20 SMA contained the downside, supporting additional advances, particularly on a break above 1.1045, a daily descendant trend line coming from 1.1435, and the immediate resistance.
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Old Aug 12, 2015, 8:07am   #10
Joined Jul 2015
Call Options Still Preferable For EURUSD As Bulls Gain Strength

Option_Banque started this thread China’s Central Bank devaluated the Yuan by 1.9%, the most on record, triggering a sell-off in commodity currencies that last all through the day. The dollar was benefited by the move, although European traders rushed to sell it and American ones to buy it back.
Greece reached a deal with its creditors that needs now to approved by the Greek Parliament and the EU finance ministers afterwards, probably the main reason of the intraday EUR’s rally, as local data was soft: German Wholesale prices fell by 0.5% compared to a year before, whilst the ZEW survey showed that local economic sentiment contracted, down to 25 in August, from previous 29.7. In the EU however, the economic sentiment, according to the survey surged to 47.6 against expectations of 43.9.
US data was also tepid, as worker productivity output increased at a 1.3% annualized rate from April through June, following a 1.1% decline in the first quarter of the year.
The EUR/USD pair surged to a 2-week high of 1.1087 after being as low as 1.0960, closing the day a handful of pips above its daily opening, with investors rushing to profit on rallies either side of the board.
Click the image to open in full size.
The pair broke briefly above the daily descendant trend line coming from March high of 1.1435, but ended the day below it, which should discourage longer term buyers. The short term technical picture is still positive, as the 1 hour chart shows that the price holds above its 20 SMA and the technical indicators above their mid-lines, lacking however, directional strength. In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators have turned sharply lower after approaching overbought territory, although the price remains above a bullish 20 SMA.
Renewed selling pressure below 1.1000 should lead to a bearish continuation this Wednesday, while gains beyond 1.1045 may see the pair approaching the 1.1120 region.
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Old Aug 13, 2015, 6:46am   #11
Joined Jul 2015
AUDUSD Eyes 0.7450 As Bullish Pin Bar Emerges

Option_Banque started this thread Key Takeaways:
  • AUDUSD rallies as China’s turmoil increases demand for commodity currencies
  • The pair leaves a classic bullish pin bar on daily chart
  • Buyers are eyeing 0.7450 resistance area in the short term

The Australian dollar rallied against the US Dollar (USD) yesterday, increasing the price of AUDUSD to more than 0.7350 as the turmoil in China increased demand for commodity currencies as safe heaven investment.

AUD/USD bottomed yesterday at 0.7215 when the major collapsed from 0.7320 before entering a sideways drift that eventually garnered demand until aforementioned drop zone until 0.7280 support where further demand came in and took the pair to meet territory just shy of the psychological 0.74 handle at 0.7387.
Click the image to open in full size.
In the 4 hours chart, the price is now above a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have corrected oversold readings, but lost their upward potential around their mid-lines. At this point, the pair needs to beat sellers around 0.7450 to be able to extend its gains during the upcoming sessions.
Binary Options Trade Idea
Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, buying the call options of the pair around current levels appears to be a good strategy in short to medium term.
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Old Aug 17, 2015, 6:43am   #12
Joined Jul 2015
Dow Still Favorable For Call Options, FTSE100 Remains Negative

Option_Banque started this thread US stocks closed with limited gains on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.40% at 17,477.40.
On weekly basis, the DJIA managed to add 0.6%, despite all the wild moves triggered by China’s Central Bank decision on devaluing its currency earlier in the week.
Nevertheless, the longer term bearish tone prevails, as in the daily chart, the index remains well below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators remain well below their mid-lines, albeit they have lost partially their downward strength, due to Friday’s recovery.
In the shorter term, the index stands above a mild bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head higher above their mid-lines supporting some intraday advances.
Click the image to open in full size.
Sentiment towards the US indexes, however, remains bearish, and despite investors are not yet clearly selling on spikes, this scenario may become likely soon, should the US data reinforce the idea of a US rate hike next September.
Meanwhile the FTSE 100 closed at 6,550.74, down 0.27%, on Friday, and not far from the weekly low of 6,535 achieved on Wednesday.
The index however, closed the week with strong losses, amid Chinese intervention in the Yuan, although fears eased partially by the end of the week, something that may attract buying interest particularly with the index at current lows.
ftse17
Among the FTSE biggest winners was the travel firm Tui Group that surged 6.6% after announcing its annual profits were set to come in at the top end of expectations. Technically, the daily chart shows that the index remains well below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator heads slightly higher above the 100 level, but the RSI indicator remains in negative territory, around

Click the image to open in full size.

In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish slope above the current level, whilst the technical indicators have bounced from oversold levels, but are losing their upward potential below their mid-lines, suggesting little buying interest around the FTSE at the time being.
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Old Aug 18, 2015, 6:49am   #13
Joined Jul 2015
USDJPY, AUDUSD Still Look Good For Call Options

Option_Banque started this thread The Yen weakened during the last few sessions, as the Japanese economy contracted in the second quarter, down 1.6%, as consumer and businesses cut spending.

The economic slowdown suggests the BOJ may need to add further stimulus to achieve its inflation target of 2.0% by the beginning of 2016, spooking investors.

he USD/JPY advanced up to 124.56, although poor US manufacturing data triggered a downward move towards 124.15, from where the pair slowly recovered during the US session.

Click the image to open in full size.
Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price stalled around its 200 SMA, currently the immediate resistance around 124.60, whilst the technical indicators aim slightly higher in neutral territory, lacking clear strength at the time being. In the 4 hours chart, the price held above a flat 100 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are also stuck around their mid-lines, giving no clues on what's next for the pair.

Meanwhile the Australian dollar erased all of its intraday losses against the greenback, with the AUD/USD finding some intraday demand after bottoming at 0.7343 early in the American morning.

The pair is unchanged daily basis, and maintains a neutral tone, albeit compared with Friday's one, the daily candle shows a lower high and a lower low, increasing the risk of a break lower.

The short term technical picture is neutral, as the 1 hour chart shows that the price moves back and forth around an horizontal 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators also lack directional strength, laying flat around their mid-lines.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the 4 hours chart, the price managed to recover above its 20 SMA in the last hours, but the indicator has lost its bullish slope, whilst the Momentum indicator heads lower, approaching the 100 level, and the RSI stands flat around 54.

Chances of a stronger decline will surge on a break below 0.7295, with scope then to retest the recent multi-years lows near the 0.7200 level.
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Old Aug 19, 2015, 6:41am   #14
Joined Jul 2015
Put Options Still Preferable For EURUSD As Bears Gain Strength

Option_Banque started this thread In the UK, inflation surged 0.1% in July 2015 compared to July 2014, but declined 0.2% monthly basis, against expectations of a 0.3% fall. The core reading yearly basis reached 1.2%, the highest in five months, a government report said yesterday.
At the same time, the UK released its PPI figures, still negative due to falling oil prices. The stronger-than-expected figures support the “sooner” rate hike MPC members have been talking about lately, making of the currency a more attractive investment, with the Pound outperforming its rivals all across the board.
US Housing Starts for July climbed to 1.206M, the highest level in almost eight years. Building permits came out at 1.119M, slightly below expected, but remain near multi-years highs, suggesting the US economy has started to pick pace in the second quarter of the year. The figures boosted the greenback that maintained a positive tone during most of the American afternoon.
The EUR/USD saw a limited advance at the beginning of the European session, but stalled short of the 1.1100 level, beginning a steady decline that ended at 1.1016, following US housing data. There was no clear catalyst behind the move, but there was neither beyond the latest advance, and the market is probably taking profits out of the table ahead of upcoming FOMC Minutes.
Technically, the pair entered in consolidative mode after reaching its low and the 1 hour chart shows that the price is now unable to advance above the 50% retracement of its latest bullish run around 1.1030, whilst the 20 SMA has extended its decline above it, and the technical indicators remain dip in the red, supporting additional declines.
Click the image to open in full size.
In the 4 hours chart, the RSI indicator continues heading lower, despite being around 35, whilst the 20 SMA maintains a sharp bearish slope above the current level. Should the pair accelerate lower once again, a break below 1.1010 exposes the 1.0960 level in the short term, whilst sellers will maintain the lead as long as the price remains below the 1.1100 figure.
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Old Aug 20, 2015, 6:35am   #15
Joined Jul 2015
Are You Ready To Buy USDJPY Put Options?

Option_Banque started this thread The USD/JPY pair finally left its range, breaking lower after the US Central Bank failed to confirm a rate hike for the upcoming September meeting.
Having been confined to a tight 40 pips range ever since the week started, the pair fell down to 123.68 after the news, and trades a few pips above it by the end of the day. The pair has been immune to the risk environment triggered by Chinese stocks that fell sharply lower for a second day in-a-row, but finally closed flat.

The gold and the Swissy however, benefited from Chinese's woes, both edging higher against its major rivals.

As for the USD/JPY the 1 hour chart shows that the price accelerated below its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators are losing their bearish strength in extreme oversold levels, still far from suggesting an upward correction.

Click the image to open in full size.

In the 4 hours chart, the price has extended below its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators have also turned flat near oversold levels. Should the price extend its decline, the next bearish target comes at 123.30, a strong static support level that if broken, should lead to a continued decline during the upcoming days.
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Old Aug 21, 2015, 6:58am   #16
Joined Jul 2015
Pound Struggles at 1.5700 Resistance Amid Weak Retail Sales

Option_Banque started this thread The GBP/USD pair remained capped by the 1.5700 figure for a second day in-a-row, having been as low as 1.5602 daily basis, following the release of the UK Retail Sales data.

In July, Britain’s retail sales rose 0.1%, below markets expectations of a 0.4% advance, up 4.2% on the year, slightly below the 4.4% forecast.

Nevertheless, the pair recovered the lost ground, ending the day right below the critical figure, and supporting additional advances, on a break above 1.5715, the immediate resistance.

Talking about the short term, scenario, the 1 hour chart shows that the price has bounced from a flat 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are aiming higher above their mid-lines, maintaining a tepid bullish slope.

Click the image to open in full size.
In the 4 hours chart the price has managed to hold above a mild-bullish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator turned sharply higher from the 100 level and the RSI indicator slowly advances around 58, all of which suggests further gains are likely, up to the 1.5770 strong static resistance level.
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