Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

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Old Sep 3, 2015, 6:31am   #25
 
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Nice analysis
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Old Sep 10, 2015, 4:32am   #26
Joined Apr 2015
NZDUSD Crushed After RBNZ Cuts Rate

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar was crushed earlier during the Asian session against most major currencies.
• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision was the reason, as the central bank reduced the interest rates from 3% to 2.75% as expected.
• New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales as reported by Statistics New Zealand posted an increase of 4.2% in August 2015, compared to August 2014.
• Chinese Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China increased by 05% in August 2015, more than the forecast of 0.4%.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The New Zealand Dollar moved lower sharply against the US Dollar, and fell by more than 100 pips. The NZDUSD pair broke a couple of important support area including the 100 simple moving average and a bullish trend line on the hourly chart.

Click the image to open in full size.

The pair traded as low as 0.6255, and currently making an attempt to correct higher. However, it might find resistance around the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.6424 high to 0.6255 low which is aligned with the 100 hourly SMA.

On the downside, an initial support area can be around the last low 0.6255. A break below it could take the pair towards the 0.6220 support area.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
Earlier today, there were many important releases lined up, including the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision. The central bank reduced the interest rates from 3% to 2.75%, which was expected by the market. This was definitely negative for the Kiwi dollar and ignited a downside move in the NZDUSD pair.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old Sep 24, 2015, 3:35am   #27
Joined Apr 2015
NZDUSD Hesitates; Trade Near a Critical Juncture

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar traded lower recently against the US Dollar, but found support near 0.6235.
• The NZDUSD pair is currently trading near a major resistance area, which holds the key for more gains.
• New Zealand Trade Balance released by the Statistics New Zealand posted a trade deficit of $-1,035M in August, compared with the forecast of $-850M.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
As mentioned earlier, there was a downside reaction in NZDUSD taking it towards the 0.6230-40 support area where buyers just managed to prevent the downside. The pair is currently trading higher, and facing hurdle near a couple of bearish trend lines on the hourly chart.

Click the image to open in full size.

Moreover, the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.6455 high to 0.6234 low is also around the current trading levels. A break and close above the same might take the pair towards the 38.2% Fib level.

On the downside, the most important support is near the last low at 0.6235. A break below it could take the pair towards the all-important 0.6200.

New Zealand Trade Balance
Earlier during the Asian session, the New Zealand Trade Balance, which is a measure of balance amount between import and export was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was a trade deficit of $-850M in August 2015, compared with the preceding month. However, the outcome was on the lower side, as the trade deficit came in at $-1,035M.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old Oct 1, 2015, 3:20am   #28
Joined Apr 2015
USDCHF – Break Near?

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US Dollar is slowly moving higher against the Swiss Franc and looks set for a break in the near term.
• There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which might act as a catalyst.
• Chinese official non-manufacturing PMI, released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) posted a reading of 53.4 in September, unchanged from the last reading.

USDCHF Technical Analysis
The US Dollar after trading close to the 0.9680 support area against the Swiss Franc managed to recover some ground. There was an upside move noted, and there is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart, acting as a catalyst for more gains.

Click the image to open in full size.

However, there is also a bearish sign to note, as the USDCHF pair is below the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages. So, if the pair breaks the trend line and support area then we might witness a move lower may be towards the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9686 low.

On the upside, buyers need to take the pair above the 100 MA. If they manage to do so, then more gains are possible in the near term.

Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI
Earlier during the Asian session, China saw a couple of important economic releases. First, the official non-manufacturing PMI, which is based on a survey of about 1,200 companies covering 27 industries including construction, transport and telecommunications was reported by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). The outcome was in line with the forecast, as the official non-manufacturing PMI came at 53.4 in September 2015, unchanged from the last reading.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old Oct 7, 2015, 3:33am   #29
Joined Apr 2015
GBPUSD – Double Top or Break Higher?

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• There was a solid US Dollar weakness noted across all the major pairs, including GBPUSD.
• The GBPUSD pair moved higher, but it is currently facing a major resistance around 1.5240.
• UK British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index posted a decline of 1.9% in September 2015, compared with the last reading of -1.4%.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis
As mentioned there was a nice upside reaction in the GBPUSD pair, taking it above the 1.5200 resistance area. However, the pair is currently facing a monster resistance around the previous swing high of 1.5240.

There are two scenarios possible:
1. First, the pair breaking above the resistance area and trading towards the 1.5300 area. Buyers need to step in for this one and outpace sellers.
2. The GBPUSD pair might fail to break above 1.5240, and moves down. In that situation, there will be a chance of it creating a double top pattern, which might be a bearish call.

Click the image to open in full size.

Overall, we can say that the GBPUSD pair is trading near a major resistance area. Traders need to wait for a few hours to see which way the price moves. A break above 1.5240 may be a bullish call.

UK British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index
Earlier during the Asian session, the UK British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index, which helps in calculating the price changes in the popular retail outlets in the UK was published. The outcome was mixed, as there was a decline noted of 1.9% in September 2015, compared with the preceding month.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old Oct 22, 2015, 4:41am   #30
Joined Apr 2015
GBPCHF Next Leg Lower Underway?

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• British Pound managed to gain bids against the Swiss Franc, which as a result took the GBPCHF pair higher.
• A bearish trend line on the hourly chart was broken by buyers to set the pace for more upsides.
• In Australia, the National Australia Bank Business Confidence posted a decline from the last reading of 4 to 0 in Q2 2015.

GBPCHF Technical Analysis
The British Pound climbed higher against the Swiss Franc, and traded towards the 1.4850 resistance area. There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which was breached during the upside drift.

Currently, the pair is correcting lower and finding buyers around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4700 low to 1.4850 high. In short, the pair found support near the broken trend line sitting with the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Click the image to open in full size.

There is also a bullish trend line on the hourly chart, which is likely to provide support to the GBPCHF pair if it continues to move lower from the current levels. On the upside, a break above the last high is required for buyers to take the pair further higher. The hourly RSI is above the 50 level, which is a positive sign for buyers.

UK Retail Sales
Today an important release is lined up in the UK, as the Retail Sales, which measures the total receipts of retail stores will be reported by the National Statistics. The forecast is lined up for an increase of 0.4% in September 2015, compared with the preceding month.

If the outcome is positive, it might lift the market sentiment and help the GBPUSD and GBPCHF pair moving ahead.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old Oct 29, 2015, 3:21am   #31
Joined Apr 2015
Fed Interest Rate Decision Aftermath and Analysis on GBPJPY

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• British Pound suffered losses recently not only against the US Dollar, but also against the Japanese Yen.
• GBPJPY pair traded lower and looks set for more losses as there are many hurdles on the way up for the pair.
• In New Zealand, the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision was announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in which the central bank made no changes in the interest rates.
• Fed interest rate decision was the highlight of yesterday which helped the US Dollar to gain some traction.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis
The British Pound faced a lot of selling pressure against the Japanese Yen, as the GBPJPY pair traded lower towards the 184.00 area. There are a couple of bearish trend lines formed on the hourly chart, which are acting as a barrier for buyers and stalling gains.

Click the image to open in full size.

Recently, the pair made an attempt to trade higher, but found resistance around the first bearish trend line. It was also coinciding with the 50.0% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 186.0 high to 183.89 low.

Moreover, the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages are also positioned around the trend line and resistance area to act as a hurdle.

Fed Interest Rate Decision Aftermath
Yesterday, during the NY session, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate. The central bank decided to keep the interest rates at 0.25%. The most important point to note from the release was the fact that the US Federal Reserve came out a bit hawkish this time, which helped the US Dollar and took it higher against most major currencies. The FOMC statement highlighted that officers had an insight on the latest weak employment figures. Overall, the statement was favoring the US Dollar and so was the reaction.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old Nov 5, 2015, 3:13am   #32
Joined Apr 2015
EURJPY – Euro Positioning For More Declines?

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• Euro weakened against the Japanese Yen recently, and broke an important support area to trade lower.
• The EURJPY pair has many resistance areas on the way up, pointing towards more losses moving ahead.
• German Factory orders will be released by the Deutsche Bundesbank today, which is forecasted to gain by 1% in September 2015.
• Today, the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were released, which failed to help Yen against the other currencies.

EURJPY Technical Analysis
The Euro failed to gain traction against a basket of currencies, including the Japanese Yen that resulted in a downside move. The EURJPY pair traded lower recently, and also cleared an important triangle formed on the hourly chart to set the tone for more declines in the short term.

Click the image to open in full size.

The EURJPY pair traded as low as 131.83, and currently making an attempt to correct higher. It won’t be easy for buyers to take the pair higher, as there are many barriers formed on the upside starting with the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 132.89 high to 131.83 low.

Moreover, there is a confluence resistance area forming near the 100 hourly simple moving average, as there is a bearish trend line siting near it to act as a hurdle for gains.

BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Today during the Asian session, the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which the Bank of Japan publishes as a study of economic movements in Japan after the actual meeting were released.

There was nothing much to note from the minutes, which in turn failed to ignite a swing move in the Yen pairs. However, on the other hand, there was a minor downside reaction in a few Yen pairs.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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