Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

This is a discussion on Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; Key Highlights • British Pound suffered losses recently not only against the US Dollar, but also against the Japanese Yen. ...

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Old Oct 29, 2015, 3:21am   #31
Joined Apr 2015
Fed Interest Rate Decision Aftermath and Analysis on GBPJPY

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• British Pound suffered losses recently not only against the US Dollar, but also against the Japanese Yen.
• GBPJPY pair traded lower and looks set for more losses as there are many hurdles on the way up for the pair.
• In New Zealand, the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision was announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in which the central bank made no changes in the interest rates.
• Fed interest rate decision was the highlight of yesterday which helped the US Dollar to gain some traction.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis
The British Pound faced a lot of selling pressure against the Japanese Yen, as the GBPJPY pair traded lower towards the 184.00 area. There are a couple of bearish trend lines formed on the hourly chart, which are acting as a barrier for buyers and stalling gains.

Click the image to open in full size.

Recently, the pair made an attempt to trade higher, but found resistance around the first bearish trend line. It was also coinciding with the 50.0% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 186.0 high to 183.89 low.

Moreover, the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages are also positioned around the trend line and resistance area to act as a hurdle.

Fed Interest Rate Decision Aftermath
Yesterday, during the NY session, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate. The central bank decided to keep the interest rates at 0.25%. The most important point to note from the release was the fact that the US Federal Reserve came out a bit hawkish this time, which helped the US Dollar and took it higher against most major currencies. The FOMC statement highlighted that officers had an insight on the latest weak employment figures. Overall, the statement was favoring the US Dollar and so was the reaction.

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Old Nov 5, 2015, 3:13am   #32
Joined Apr 2015
EURJPY – Euro Positioning For More Declines?

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• Euro weakened against the Japanese Yen recently, and broke an important support area to trade lower.
• The EURJPY pair has many resistance areas on the way up, pointing towards more losses moving ahead.
• German Factory orders will be released by the Deutsche Bundesbank today, which is forecasted to gain by 1% in September 2015.
• Today, the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were released, which failed to help Yen against the other currencies.

EURJPY Technical Analysis
The Euro failed to gain traction against a basket of currencies, including the Japanese Yen that resulted in a downside move. The EURJPY pair traded lower recently, and also cleared an important triangle formed on the hourly chart to set the tone for more declines in the short term.

Click the image to open in full size.

The EURJPY pair traded as low as 131.83, and currently making an attempt to correct higher. It won’t be easy for buyers to take the pair higher, as there are many barriers formed on the upside starting with the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 132.89 high to 131.83 low.

Moreover, there is a confluence resistance area forming near the 100 hourly simple moving average, as there is a bearish trend line siting near it to act as a hurdle for gains.

BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Today during the Asian session, the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which the Bank of Japan publishes as a study of economic movements in Japan after the actual meeting were released.

There was nothing much to note from the minutes, which in turn failed to ignite a swing move in the Yen pairs. However, on the other hand, there was a minor downside reaction in a few Yen pairs.

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Old Nov 12, 2015, 5:32am   #33
Joined Apr 2015
GBPAUD – Aussie Dollar Surges Higher Post Employment Report

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• There was a sharp upside reaction in the Aussie Dollar, as the Australian employment report released earlier today posted impressive figures.
• Australian Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics came in at 58.6K in October 2015, which was more than the forecast of 15K.
• Australian Unemployment Rate dipped from 6.2% to 5.9% in October 2015.
• Australian participation rate, representing the percentage of the total number of people of labour-force registered a reading of 65%.

GBPAUD Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar gained heavily after the employment report was published. There was an upside channel formed on the hourly chart of the GBPAUD pair, which was cleared by the Aussie Dollar buyers to set the pace for more gains.

Click the image to open in full size.

The GBPAUD pair has now settled below the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving average, which is a bearish sign and might take the pair further lower in the near term.

Any correction from the current levels may find resistance around the 100 hourly simple moving average, which is sitting near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 2.1571 high.

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Old Nov 19, 2015, 3:07am   #34
Joined Apr 2015
NZDUSD Surged Higher and Looks Poised For Gains

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar enjoyed a solid bullish run against the US Dollar and traded above a monster resistance area.
• The NZDUSD pair cleared a critical bearish trend line on the hourly chart, along with the 100 hourly moving average.
• New Zealand Producer Price Index Output released by the Statistics New Zealand posted an increase of 1.3% in Q3 2015, which was higher compared with the last decline of 0.2%.
• Similarly, New Zealand Producer Price Index Input rose 1.6% in Q3 2015, more than the last decline of 0.3%.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The NZDUSD pair traded higher during the Asian session, as the risk sentiment was boosted. There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which was broken during the upside drift along with the 100 moving average.

Click the image to open in full size.

Overall, there are many positive signs for the pair emerging, as the pair settled above an important resistance area of 0.6500.

If the pair moves lower from the current levels, then the 200 hourly MA may provide support, followed by the 100 MA.

New Zealand PPI
The New Zealand Producer Price Index, which is a measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by producers was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The market was not expecting any major increase in the input. However, the outcome was above the forecast, as the New Zealand PPI Input increased by 1.6% in Q3 2015, which was a lot higher compared with the last decline of 0.3%.

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Old Nov 26, 2015, 3:13am   #35
Joined Apr 2015
NZDUSD – Recent Break Points toward More Gains

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar recently managed to break an important bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart, which cleared the way for more upsides.
• The pair also settled above the 100 simple moving average (4H), which is a positive sign.
• New Zealand Trade balance, released by Statistics New Zealand posted a trade deficit of $-3.24B in October 2015, compared with the forecast of a $-3.37B deficit.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The New Zealand Dollar after declining towards 0.6420 support area managed to gain bids and started correcting higher. There was a major bearish trend line on the 4-hours chart, which was breached by buyers to take the NZDUSD pair higher.

Click the image to open in full size.

The most important and a bullish sign to note is the fact that the pair closed above the above the 100 simple moving average (4H). It is a sign that the trend may have changed and the pair could trade higher.

The 4H RSI is also above the 50 level, suggesting buyer’s sentiment has improved. The next target on the upside can be around the 200 MA (4H).

New Zealand Trade Balance
Earlier during the Asian session, the Trade balance, which is the difference between the value of country's exports and imports, over a period of year was released by Statistics New Zealand. The market was expecting a trade deficit of $-3.37B in October 2015, compared with the same month a year ago. However, the outcome was positive, as the trade deficit was less and came in at $-3.24B.

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Old Dec 3, 2015, 3:03am   #36
Joined Apr 2015
AUDJPY Sellers Looking To Take Pair Lower?

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• Aussie Dollar struggled to break the 90-40-50 resistance area against the Japanese Yen, and formed a topping pattern.
• There was a support trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDJPY pair, which was breached to clear the way for more losses.
• Australian trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics registered a trade deficit of -3,305M, more than the forecast of - -2,665M in October 2015.
• AIG Performance of Services Index released by the Australian Industry Group posted a decline from the last reading of 48.9 to 48.2.

AUDJPY Technical Analysis
As mentioned the AUDJPY pair topped near the 90.-40-50 resistance area, and after that sellers even managed to break an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart.

Click the image to open in full size.

Currently, the pair is trading near the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last move from the 88.87 low to 90.46 high. There is a chance that the pair may head towards the 50% Fib level in the short term.

Interesting Read - USDCHF FOLLOWING A DESCENDING CHANNEL; BREAK LIKELY?


On the upside, broken trend line and support area may now act as a hurdle for buyers with resistance around 90.00-10.

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Old Dec 10, 2015, 3:13am   #37
Joined Apr 2015
AUDUSD Surges Higher as Employment Improved in Australia

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• Australian Dollar rocketed higher during the Asian session today, as the employment report released in Australia was impressive.
• Australian Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted an increase of 71.4K in November 2015, whereas the market was expecting a decline of -10K.
• The Unemployment Rate dipped from the last reading of 5.9% to 5.8%.
• AUDUSD pair climbed higher and cleared an important resistance trend line for an upside move.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair after finding bids near 0.7170 started to consolidate in a range, and after the employment report was released it spiked higher. There was a bearish trend line on the hourly chart, which was broken to open the doors for more upsides in the near term.

Click the image to open in full size.

The pair also cleared an important confluence resistance area of 100 and 200 simple moving average sitting with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7385 high to 0.7170 low.

Currently, the pair is finding offers near the 76.4% Fib level, and it looks like it may correct lower. The hourly RSI is moving away from the overbought levels signaling a correction.

Interesting Read – Forex Trader’s Health: What is Your Body Telling You?

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Old Dec 17, 2015, 3:19am   #38
Joined Apr 2015
US Dollar Gains as Fed Raised Interest Rates

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• Fed increased the interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%, as forecasted and as a result, the US Dollar rocketed higher.
• EURUSD and GBPUSD dived down and USDCAD traded higher.
• The upside in the USDCAD pair was contained by the 1.3850 resistance area, which acted as a barrier.
• In New Zealand, the Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistics New Zealand posted an increase of 0.9% in the third quarter of 2015, more than the forecast of 0.8%.

USDCAD Technical Analysis
The USDCAD was also benefited after the Fed interest rate decision. There was a sharp spike noted in USDCAD, but the pair failed to clear the 1.3850 resistance area and currently consolidating in a range.

Click the image to open in full size.

There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which is acting as a support and preventing the downside move. The hourly RSI is above the 50 level, which is a positive sign for bulls in the near term.

A break above the recent high could ignite another rally in the USDCAD pair, taking it higher moving ahead.

Fed Interest Rate Decision
So, finally the fed opted to raise the interest rates to end their 7-year long crisis stance. The US Dollar buyers enjoyed the outcome and took the greenback higher against most major currencies.

EURUSD was crushed, and it looks like the pair is heading towards the 1.0820 support area.

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Old Dec 24, 2015, 3:54am   #39
Joined Apr 2015
AUDJPY Testing Significant Resistance

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• Aussie Dollar climbed higher during the past session against the Japanese Yen, but facing a major resistance area.
• There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of AUDJPY, which is preventing an upside break.
• Australian Conference Board Australia leading Index released by the Conference Board posted a decline of 0.1% in October 2015, a bit less than the last -0.3%.
• BOJ Meeting Minutes were released earlier during the Asian session, which failed to help the Japanese Yen.

AUDJPY Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar managed to recover from the 87.13 low against the Japanese Yen, and currently trading higher. There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of AUDJPY, which is acting as a barrier for buyers and preventing the upside move.

Click the image to open in full size.

The highlighted trend line and resistance area acted as a barrier on a number of occasions, and may continue to do so. If buyers succeed in taking the pair above the trend line and resistance area, then more gains are feasible.

The next stop on the upside can be seen around the 88.00 level. No doubt, there are many positive signs, which can lead to a break higher in the pair.

On the downside, the 200 hourly simple moving average may act as a support area, as it is coinciding with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 87.13 low to 87.58 high. The hourly RSI is above the 50 level, which is a bullish sign for bulls.

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Old Dec 31, 2015, 3:17am   #40
Joined Apr 2015
USDCHF – Important Trend Line Resistance

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US Dollar failed to trade above the 0.9940-50 resistance area and moved lower against the Swiss Franc.
• There is a major bearish trend line and resistance zone formed on the hourly chart for the USDCHF pair.
• Today, the US Initial Jobless Claims will be released by the US Department of Labor, which is forecasted to rise from the last reading of 267K to 270K.
• Earlier during the Asian session, the Australian Private Sector Credit released by the Reserve Bank of Australia posted an increase of 0.4% in October 2015, less than the forecast of 0.6%.

USDCHF Technical Analysis
As mentioned the USDCHF pair struggled to break the 0.9940-50 resistance area and traded lower. The pair settled below the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving average, which is bearish sign and may take it further lower.

Click the image to open in full size.

There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which is acting as a barrier for buyers and igniting a downside rally every time the pair attempts to move higher.

On the downside, the recent low of 0.9855 holds the key, as a break below the stated level may call for more losses in the near term.

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Old Jan 7, 2016, 3:08am   #41
Joined Apr 2015
AUDUSD Continues To Remain Under Pressure

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• AUDUSD cleared a major triangle pattern on the 4-hours chart to initiate a bear leg.
• There is a chance that the AUDUSD pair may test the all-important 0.7000 support area moving ahead.
• Australian trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a trade deficit of -2,906M in November 2015.
• Australian Building Permits report was also released, which highlighted a decline of 12.7% in November 2015.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar was seen under a lot of bearish pressure throughout the past couple of days against the US Dollar. There was a major support trend line of a triangle pattern on the 4-hours chart, which was broken to clear the way for more losses.

Click the image to open in full size.

The AUDUSD pair settled below the 100 and 200 simple moving average on the 4-hours chart, and currently trading way below it. The pair is likely heading towards the 0.7000 support area where it is likely to find buyers.

On the upside, if the pair corrects higher, then an initial resistance could be around the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7330 high. However, the 0.7160-80 area can be seen as a major hurdle for more upsides in the near term.

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Old Jan 14, 2016, 3:04am   #42
Joined Apr 2015
NZDUSD Facing Barrier For More Gains

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• The New Zealand Dollar attempted a couple of times to trade higher against the US dollar, but failed to sustain momentum.
• NZDUSD pair traded below 0.6500 today, and looks set for more losses in the near term.
• The New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales as reported by Statistics New Zealand posted a decrease of 0.2% in December 2015, compared with the last rise of 0.3%.
• In terms of the yearly change, the New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales rose 5.3%, compared with the last increase of 3.7%.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The NZDUSD pair recently cleared a bullish trend line on the hourly chart, which was acting as a support. Also, the pair settled below the 0.6500 support area, which means buyers are struggling to gain momentum.

Click the image to open in full size.

There is also a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which may act as a barrier if the pair corrects higher from the current levels, as the 100 simple moving average is also positioned around it.

On the downside, the recent low of 0.6465 is a short-term support, which if breached may ignite more losses in the near term. The hourly RSI is well below the 50 level, suggesting the pair is facing a lot of selling pressure.

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Old Jan 21, 2016, 3:08am   #43
Joined Apr 2015
USDJPY Approaching Crucial Resistance Area

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US Dollar after trading as low as 115.92 against the US Dollar managed to correct higher.
• USDJPY is heading towards a major resistance area where sellers may emerge.
• Japanese Foreign bond investment released by Ministry of Finance posted a reading of ₯-358.3B, compared with the last reading of ₯323.1B.
• Today, the US Initial Jobless Claims will be released by the US Department of Labor, which is forecasted to register a decline from the last reading of 284K to 278K.

USDJPY Technical Analysis
The USDJPY pair recently dived closer to the 116.00 area where buyers just managed to defend losses. The pair is currently correcting higher, but may face a lot of barriers on the way up. There are a couple of bearish trend lines on the 4-hours chart, which acted as a hurdle for buyers on many occasions earlier.

Click the image to open in full size.

If the pair trades closer to the highlighted trend line and resistance area, then it would be interesting to see how sellers react.

The 4-hours RSI is just touching the 50 level, and a break above it may encourage buyers in the short term to take the pair higher.

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Old Jan 28, 2016, 3:10am   #44
Joined Apr 2015
NZDUSD Lower Post RBNZ Rate Decision

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar moved lower after the RBNZ announced the interest rates.
• NZDUSD pair broke a major support trend line on the hourly chart, which is now acting as a resistance.
• Today, the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision was announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in which the central bank kept the rates at 2.5%.
• The New Zealand Trade Balance released by the Statistics New Zealand posted a trade deficit of $-53M in December 2015, compared with the preceding month.
• In terms of the yearly change, the New Zealand Trade Balance posted a trade deficit of $-3.549B.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The NZDUSD pair was down after the rate decision, as sellers got a reason to weaken the pair. There was a major support trend line on the hourly chart, which was broken during the downside drift.

Click the image to open in full size.

The pair traded as low as 0.6410, and after the release of the Trade Balance report, the NZDUSD pair gained bids.

However, the broken trend line is now acting as a resistance and preventing gains. It looks like the pair may break it to move higher, but might face sellers once again near the 0.6460 level. The 200 hourly simple moving average is positioned around the stated level.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
Today, the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision was announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The market was not expecting any change in rates of 2.5%. The result was as expected, as the central bank kept rates at 2.5%. However, the dovish tone of the central bank pushed the Kiwi Dollar down.

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Old Feb 3, 2016, 3:08am   #45
Joined Apr 2015
NZDJPY – Can New Zealand Dollar Climb?

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar after trading lower against the Japanese Yen found support near a major bullish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart.
• There is a major support formed near 77.60, which if holds may push the NZDJPY pair higher.
• Today, the New Zealand Employment Change was reported by the Statistics New Zealand, which posted a change of 0.9% in the fourth quarter of 2015.
• Moreover, the New Zealand Unemployment Rate posted a reading of 5.3%, down from 6%.

NZDJPY Technical Analysis
The NZDJPY pair recently dived and tested the 77.60 support area where there were a couple of bullish trend lines waiting to act as a support area. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 75.99 low to 79.37 high also acted as a barrier for sellers and prevented a downside break.

Click the image to open in full size.

The pair is now moving higher and showing a few positive signs. On the upside, the most important resistance is around the 200 simple moving average (H4). Only a break above it could take the pair further higher.

On the downside, we need to keep an eye on the highlighted trend line and support area, as a break below it could call for more losses.

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