Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

This is a discussion on Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX within the Daily Analysis forums, part of the Commercial category; Key Highlights • US Dollar struggled during the past couple of sessions against currencies such as the Euro and the ...

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Old Jun 3, 2015, 4:07pm   #9
Joined Apr 2015
USDCHF Remains as Risk of Declines

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US Dollar struggled during the past couple of sessions against currencies such as the Euro and the Swiss Franc.
• USDCHF is trading lower with support at 0.9300, which if breached might ignite more losses.
• US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics posted a decline from the last reading of 56.4 to 56.2 in May 2015.

US Services PMI
Earlier during the NY session, the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), pointing business conditions in the services sector was released by Markit Economics. The forecast was lined up for an increase from the last reading of 56.4 to 56.5 in May 2015. However, the outcome was a bit on the lower side, as US Services Purchasing Managers Index registered a decline to 56.2.

The report stated that Business activity continued to improve across the U.S. service sector in May. However, the latest report suggests that there is a slight loss of momentum since the previous month. On the other end, the incoming new work and service providers were on the better side, and added to their payroll numbers at a robust pace. There was one negative to note, as the Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index declined to 56.1 in May, lower compared with 57.0 in April.

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Commenting on the report, the chief economist at Markit, Chris Williamson, stated that “The US economy looks to have grown at a healthy pace in May, providing further evidence that the rate of expansion has picked up from the weak start to the year”.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'
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Old Jun 9, 2015, 4:27am   #10
Joined Apr 2015
AUDUSD Primed For Lift-off

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• US Dollar weakness pushed pairs like AUDUSD and NZDUSD higher.
• AUDUSD traded higher and settled above the 200 moving average (hourly) to set the pace for the next leg.
• Australian Home Loans released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics increased by 1% in April 2015 whereas the market was expecting a decline of 2%.
• Chinese Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China registered a decline of 0.2% in May 2015, compared with the forecast of no change.

AUDUSD – Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar was seen taking advantage of the US Dollar weakness and traded higher. There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of AUDUSD, which was colliding with the 200 hourly simple moving average. The highlighted trend line was broken by buyers, and pushed the pair towards the 100 MA where it found sellers.

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If the pair settles above the 100 MA, the chances of it trading towards 0.7750 might increase. On the downside, the 200 MA could act as a support in the near term.

Australian Home Loans
Earlier during the Asian session, there were a couple of important releases lined up, including the Australian Home Loans, representing the number of home loans published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The forecast was lined up for a decline of 2% in April 2015, compared with the preceding month in which it rose by 1.5% (revised). However, the outcome was better-than-expected, as the Australian Home Loans managed to increase by 2%.

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Old Jun 12, 2015, 3:58am   #11
Joined Apr 2015
GBPUSD Defies Gravity, Looks to Trade Higher

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• British Pound traded higher Intraday against the US Dollar, and broke a critical resistance area.
• GBPUSD is facing a major resistance on the upside around 1.5550 where sellers might struggle in the near term.
• In New Zealand, the Business NZ PMI released by the Business NZ posted a minor decrease from the previous revised reading of 51.7 to 51.5 in April 2015.

GBPUSD – Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair after setting a short-term top moved lower and fell back towards an important broken bearish trend line on the hourly chart, which acted as a support to the pair. The highlighted trend line was coinciding with the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.5256 low to 1.5553 high. In short, the pair found support around the mentioned Fib level and currently moving back higher.

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However, there is a major resistance on the upside around the last swing high of 1.5550 where buyers might continue to struggle. A break above the stated resistance area could clear the way for a move towards 1.5600.

On the downside, there are many support areas, starting with the broken trend line, 50% Fib retracement level of the 100 hourly simple moving average. So, buyers have many reasons to take the pair higher moving ahead.

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Old Jun 16, 2015, 3:59pm   #12
Joined Apr 2015
GBP/USD Rallies Post a Flurry of Economic Releases

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• British Pound gained heavy bids Intraday against the US dollar, and traded above 1.5600.
• UK Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics increased by 0.1% in May 2015, compared with the same month a year ago.
• UK Core Consumer Price Index rose by 0.9% in May 2015, compared with May 2014.
• Producer Price Index Input decreased by 0.9% in May 2015, compared with the preceding month.
• US Housing Starts released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce came in at 1.036M in April whereas the forecast was of 1.100M.

UK CPI
Earlier during the London session, the UK Consumer Price Index, which measures the price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services was released by the National Statistics. The forecast was of a 0.1% increase in May 2015, compared to the same month a year ago. The outcome was in line with the forecast, as the UK CPI came in at 0.1%.

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In terms of the monthly change, the UK CPI rose by 0.2% in May 2015, compared to the preceding month, which was also in line with the forecast. The report stated that the “largest upward contribution to the change came from transport services, notably air fares with the timing of Easter in April a likely factor in the movement. There were also significant upward effects from food and motor fuels”.

Moreover, UK Core Consumer Price missed the mark, as the forecast was +1% May 2015, compared to the same month a year ago. However, the result was lower, as the UK Core CPI increased 0.9%.

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Old Jun 23, 2015, 4:10am   #13
Joined Apr 2015
AUDJPY at Critical Turning Point

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• Aussie Dollar is testing an important support area against the Japanese Yen, which if broken might set the AUDJPY pair for more losses.
• Australian House Price Index released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted an increase of 1.6 % in the first quarter of 2015, compared with the forecast of +2.3%.
• In Japan, the Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI was released, which declined to 49.9 in June 2015, and posted a contraction.

AUDJPY Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar recently traded close to the 96.40-50 resistance area where it found sellers and traded lower versus the Japanese Yen. The downside drift was strong enough to take out the 100 and 200 simple moving average (4-hours), which can be seen as a bearish sign.

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There is a bullish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart, which managed to protect the losses. However, there is a major risk of a break below the trend line, as many negative signals pointing towards more declines in the pair moving ahead.

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Old Jun 30, 2015, 4:18am   #14
Joined Apr 2015
NZDJPY Might Attempt For a New Low

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar continued to move lower against most major currencies, including the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen.
• NZDJPY looks like heading towards the last low of 82.83, and might create a new low moving ahead.
• New Zealand Building Permits figure released by the Statistics New Zealand posted no change in May 2015, compared with the preceding month.
• Business Confidence released by the ANZ came in at -2.3 in May 2015, compared with the last reading of 15.7.

NZDJPY Technical Analysis
The New Zealand Dollar recently traded above 84.00 against the Japanese Yen, but failed to trade above 84.20, as there is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of NZDUSD that prevented gains. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 85.66 high to 82.30 low was also around the same trend line. Overall, there was a lot of bearish pressure visible on the NZDJPY pair, which increases the chances of it trading lower in the near term. The hourly RSI is well below the 50 level, signaling the fact that sellers are in control.

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Let us see whether the pair can correct higher or creates a new low moving ahead. On the upside, the highlighted trend line might continue to play an important role for more gains.

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Old Jul 3, 2015, 4:11am   #15
Joined Apr 2015
Can GOLD Gain Traction?

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• GOLD continued to fall this week and followed a nice downtrend despite Greece exit fears.
• HSBC China Services PMI™, released by Markit Economics posted a decline from the last reading of 53.5 to 51.8 in June 2015.
• In Australia, the Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics registered an increase of 0.3% in May 2015, compared with the preceding month.

GOLD Technical Analysis
GOLD after opening the week on a positive note declined, and followed a nice bearish trend. There are a couple of major resistance trend lines formed on the hourly chart, which are acting as a barrier for more gains. Every time buyers manage to take the price higher, they find sellers around the highlighted trend lines.

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Recently, the price tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the $1187 high to $1156 low. Currently, the price is around the highlighted resistance zone, which means there is a risk of a break higher in the near term. If there is one more failure to trade higher, then the possibility of it trading lower might escalate moving ahead. The hourly RSI has just moved above the 50 level, which is a positive sign.

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Old Jul 7, 2015, 5:00am   #16
Joined Apr 2015
NZDUSD Poised for Declines

titanfx started this thread Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar continued to weaken against most currencies, including the US Dollar.
• NZDUSD traded below 0.6680 and looks set for more declines in the near term.
• In New Zealand, the NZIER Business Confidence released by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research came in at 5%, compared with the last 23%.

NZIER Business Confidence
Earlier during the Asian session, the NZIER Business Confidence, which shows the business outlook in New Zealand was released by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. The outcome was on the lower side when compared with the last reading of 23%, as the NZIER Business Confidence posted a rise of 5%. The headline of the report published was that the “latest NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the New Zealand economy losing momentum”. It shows that the outcome was not good enough to help the New Zealand Dollar.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The NZDUSD pair formed a contracting triangle on the hourly chart, which was broken recently. There was a failure noted around the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.6733 high to 0.6648 low. Moreover, the triangle resistance trend line acted as a catalyst for a down-move. The most critical point is that the pair is well below the 100 and 200 simple moving average, suggesting the amount of bearish pressure on NZDUSD.

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On the downside, the last low of 0.6648 is a support area. If there is a break below the mentioned area, a move towards 0.6600 is possible. The pair might remain under the bearish pressure, as long as it is below the 100 hourly MA.
On the upside, the broken triangle may also act as a resistance for buyers moving ahead.

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