Re: How do the commodity markets work?
In regards to the Cash-Futures relationship, in the grains for instance.
btw, I grew up on a 3500 acre farm/ranch, so I know this stuff first-hand...
Dad calls the elevator and says "I have corn to sell, what are you guys bidding"
Co-op, or grain buyer "the BASIS is 10 under" which means we will pay you CASH, 10 cents under what the board (front month futures) is at. Quick 'Fun-With-Math' exercise... CU6 is trading at say 243'4 then you subtract the BASIS... you'll get 2.33 1/2 per bushel Cash.
Basis varies by location in the U.S. If you're buying corn in say Hereford, TX, expect a +40 or more basis, recently I heard higher than that. Pacific Northwest, look for +80, or thereabouts. Central Nebraska typically has a weak basis for both beans and corn.
the "10 under" is what is referred to as the BASIS... you'll find a bunch of city-boy brokers that won't be able to tell you what basis is, but they know "everything there is to know" about corn or soybeans or wheat because their grandpa has 5 acres out in western Illinois or whatever... RUN!!!
As far as deliveries go, that's a whole other lesson, but less than 1% of the open interest is actually delivered. Its just a risk management tool, and we welcome speculators to take on PRICE RISK.
Oftentimes, BASIS RISK can be as great to a producer than price risk, especially in the cattle market.
Hopefully that helps clarify the Cash/Futures relationships? |