Crude Oil Trading

This is a discussion on Crude Oil Trading within the Commodities & Money Markets forums, part of the Markets category; Nice news report. But though 'TI was the world index for Crude- I think Brent is the real leader. ie ...

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Old Sep 2, 2012, 5:07pm   #31
 
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

Nice news report. But though 'TI was the world index for Crude- I think Brent is the real leader. ie Price changes in Brent set the outright price and everything else trades as a spread. TI is less and less relevant. In fact LLS in hte US is the more accurate marker when one thinks of oil fundamentals for the US. DOn't get me wrong, whilst the US consumes nearly 20mil bbl/day of hte world's 90mmbd the US fundamentals will always be important- just TI is more easliy "disconnected" due to the quirks about its delivery process.
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Old Sep 17, 2012, 6:22am   #32
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

U.S.CRUDE

U.S. October crude, up 2.7 percent for the week, rose 69 cents to settle at $99 a barrel. U.S. crude reached $100.42, its first time over $100 since May 4 when it touched $102.72.
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Old Sep 19, 2012, 3:15am   #33
 
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

The old adage that markets don't like confusion has to be ringing in folks' heads. After Fri euphoria a "mystery flash dump" hit Brent markets just before "the window" on Monday and those who thought profit taking was going to be the order of the day (ie weak length) exited yesterday, making for another weak day. A massive LCOx/n sell order (19000 lots) appeared yest and then dissappeared with not that much having traded. So flat price falls, spreads stay the same/strengthen and confusion reigns.
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Old Sep 24, 2012, 8:27am   #34
 
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
100 psychological level proved to be a difficult level for crude oil to break through. Last week’s sharp decline and break of 94.08 support indicates that rebound from 77.28 has finished at 100.42 already. Deeper decline should be seen in near term back to 61.8% retracement of 77.28 to 100.42 at 86.12 and possibly below. Though, we’d expect strong support ahead of 77.28 to contain downside. Another rally is anticipated for 110.55 after completing the current consolidation[Written by bontrade.org]
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 8:11am   #35
 
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

Last picture! Really that the price will go down?
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 3:10pm   #36
 
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

Hi guys, (sorry if im out of topic, appropriate redirects welcome)

Can anyone credit ICE education's Oil Trader Development Programme (or any other course on ICE)?

https://www.theice.com/EducationCour...ourseCalendar=

Are they worth the money or just superficial and expensive?

Thanks a lot,
Mihail
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 3:21pm   #37
 
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

Quote:
Originally Posted by MDunleavy View Post
Last picture! Really that the price will go down?
Click the image to open in full size.
Hi MD, on the D1, H4, H1 there was inverse H&S and a key area of demand (BB for anyone who looks at NBT stuff) @8830. This was in a clear higher t/f DT so a possible trend reversal area. I do not see this as a clearly defined upttrend yet to look for trend reversals, but obviously we are looking at different charts.

Note though this is the 5th time back to the 9300 area in the last cpl of days, and if it breaks here then it looks likely to test the 9480-9530 level of res. I certainly will not be looking to fade at any moment soon, quite the contrary, a break around here & I will look for a long. Just my opinion obviously.
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Old Oct 10, 2012, 4:16pm   #38
 
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrudik View Post
Hi guys, (sorry if im out of topic, appropriate redirects welcome)

Can anyone credit ICE education's Oil Trader Development Programme (or any other course on ICE)?

https://www.theice.com/EducationCour...ourseCalendar=

Are they worth the money or just superficial and expensive?

Thanks a lot,
Mihail
Hi Mihail,
no idea about the ice course, sorry. you can learn about futures & options for free on many places on the web, as too with strategies for trading oil.....which are similar to strategies for trading any of the major instruments (fx, equities, commods, FI et al). successful traders scalp, swing & position trade oil using tech analysis & fundamental analysis, just like any other market. looking at the course structure there looks to be a lot of fluff (eg "Forward curve analysis") which may or may not be of relevance & can be found using google, will take you longer but will be free.

also....
"MODULE 3: Hedging to Save Money

Strategy Workshop: End User, Producer, Utility, Physical trader scenarios

Case Study: Freight rate trading and hedging"

....I am not sure this has any relevance to retail traders? OK for knowledge, but will it help you trade any better? (unless you are loaded and want to trade physical, or want to trade for an energy company).

Do you know yet if you want to trade using FA, TA, or a bit of both (or neither)? What time frame? Do you know what type of instrument you want to trade - physical, futures, options etc? Why do you want to trade oil? You may find that the more volatile nature of the market doesn't suit you. Maybe you can ask the course director some questions prior to making a decision? (btw your post is better off in the "First steps" section).

Basically theres a lot to learn about trading which is generic across most instruments, imo i wld learn as much as i can for free online to get a view on what i want to trade and why (sorry if you have already done this), also looking at various trade journals on oil (i dont see many brent crude outright trading journals, mainly crude light) and if theres knowledge gaps which cannot be filled & which wld clearly improve my skills as a trader only then wld i consider looking into paying for a course. by then i wld hope to narrow down exactly what i need to learn - it wld be very specific, unlike this or most other courses. but the main gap i have found to be an obstacle in becoming a good trader is in experience (being mainly screentime for me) , which is always free, just v time consuming. All my opinion, of course.

And fyi, oil pricing is fixed (shock horror), so i wld be interested to hear what ICE have to say about Total's comments on the fixing, and how best ppl like you and me can position ourselves to make money out of a rigged market......

Total warns over ‘inaccurate’ benchmarks - FT.com

if the FT link requires you register heres another article...
LIBOR-gate Comes To Crude: Total Exposes Price Fixing In The Energy Market | ZeroHedge

g/l.

Last edited by rsh01; Oct 10, 2012 at 4:22pm.
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Old Oct 11, 2012, 3:46pm   #39
 
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

some possible CL plays in the short term, though not looking to short at the QM RS near here as been up here too often and hung around consolidating here......
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Old Oct 12, 2012, 1:23am   #40
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

RSH01
By any chance do you trade Cl calnder spreads (NYMEX)? I am looking in to it and would like to exchange notes
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Old Oct 12, 2012, 1:59am   #41
 
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

I did trade CL cal spread (flys/condors) for about a year (approx first 2 years of the curve) but it was during the spring rising and the volatility became too great for the cost of the trade ($1+ a side - so for a fly it wld cost you $4 entry + $4 exit with 1tick = $10 so net $2 gain - so really needed 3 ticks). It used to be tight mean reverting ranges (2005-2010) - 20ticks max, but some of the months (often a fly with a quarter month in it - which is most) cld spike 50-100ticks easily in a cpl of days. So it wld take on the characteristics of an outright yet the cal spdread flow didn't correlate to the movement in the underlying (it did up to early 2011) - the curve cld pivot from contango to backwardation easily (I searched for months on literature which might explain the curve shifts but there's limited available from what I found, if anyone else can provide some sources I wld be intrigued to learn more). With a decent exchange rebate we were only just breaking even with broker costs of up to 50k a mth, it became impossible (for me) to trade it, and by this time I had already started trading outrights. From what I have heard things haven't changed much, cpl of guys still trading it but just treading water, downsized massively and limited averaging which has cut into a big part of their monthly income - the rebates.

There's much better energy related trades to be looking at for an income.

I worked at a prop firm so they provided the margin which was over 100k most days, though I was trading a cpl of years of the curve.

Why the interest in CL cal spreads?
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Old Oct 12, 2012, 5:15am   #42
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

Thanks for some meanful discussion rsh01
I am not a pro trader as you seems to be so some of my questions and explanations could be wrong!
Out of fear of outrightvolatility I thought spreads are less risky! and market neutral ( depends upon capital deployment )
So started looing in to them , I know people tade Agri spreads like outright
any way I satrted loking at Eurodollar and Oil spreads as less amrgin hungry and see if smal ticks can be achieved
chalanges I se are
1) DO they move enough to make any money specially 1-2 near month
2) Platform and FCM who wil give proper exchaneg SPAN margin
3) Low coms ( at the moment I can see min = USD 0.5 per leg per side so to RT a spread = $2 + exchnage fees aganist the possible profit of only 1 tick = $10 per spread
4) a plaform which is not too expensiev and can chart a exchange recognised spread properly!

and last how can one hedge the Cal spread? if it goes against you
A- using CSO Calnder SPread Options .. they do exist but not liquied at all it smmes
B - one person mentionedthat if a Cal lspread goes aginst you convert it in to a butterfly.. I am still trying to understand how woudl that work in payout terms?

Perhaps better if we PM
MK
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Old Oct 12, 2012, 7:11am   #43
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

Sorry about all typos
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Old Oct 12, 2012, 1:06pm   #44
 
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

Quote:
Originally Posted by moka2 View Post
Sorry about all typos
have pm'ed you.
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Old Oct 12, 2012, 3:20pm   #45
 
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Re: Crude Oil Trading

Thanks very much for your extensive reply, rsh01.

1. Indeed there is so much free material on the web (CME web 4 exmpl), I just wanted to take the course as I am going to Singapore anyway and useful it would be to network with real people interested in the issue, yes, with perspective to get a job in prop trading or energy Co (not sure yet).

2. For knowledge, yes, I dont mind to hear about freight as I aim to widen my trading scope to the whole energy sector in progress.

3. Would like to trade using a bit of both FA and TA, however both may fail, if the price is manipulated )). As for now, it would be position trading (coz it works for me on FX i.e. USDRUB) using futures and options (sorry, really dont know yet if it makes sense to use them simultaneously) and high volatility would be tackled with smaller leverage.

4. Good idea to ask the course director some questions, thx!
Honestly, i have difficulties navigating here on t2w forums, searching the forums is a mess... could not find 'First steps' section to duplicate my post there ...
What oil trading journals titles would you suggest please?

Thanks in advance and have a great weekend!

Quote:
Originally Posted by rsh01 View Post
Hi Mihail,
no idea about the ice course, sorry. you can learn about futures & options for free on many places on the web, as too with strategies for trading oil.....which are similar to strategies for trading any of the major instruments (fx, equities, commods, FI et al). successful traders scalp, swing & position trade oil using tech analysis & fundamental analysis, just like any other market. looking at the course structure there looks to be a lot of fluff (eg "Forward curve analysis") which may or may not be of relevance & can be found using google, will take you longer but will be free.

also....
"MODULE 3: Hedging to Save Money

Strategy Workshop: End User, Producer, Utility, Physical trader scenarios

Case Study: Freight rate trading and hedging"

....I am not sure this has any relevance to retail traders? OK for knowledge, but will it help you trade any better? (unless you are loaded and want to trade physical, or want to trade for an energy company).

Do you know yet if you want to trade using FA, TA, or a bit of both (or neither)? What time frame? Do you know what type of instrument you want to trade - physical, futures, options etc? Why do you want to trade oil? You may find that the more volatile nature of the market doesn't suit you. Maybe you can ask the course director some questions prior to making a decision? (btw your post is better off in the "First steps" section).

Basically theres a lot to learn about trading which is generic across most instruments, imo i wld learn as much as i can for free online to get a view on what i want to trade and why (sorry if you have already done this), also looking at various trade journals on oil (i dont see many brent crude outright trading journals, mainly crude light) and if theres knowledge gaps which cannot be filled & which wld clearly improve my skills as a trader only then wld i consider looking into paying for a course. by then i wld hope to narrow down exactly what i need to learn - it wld be very specific, unlike this or most other courses. but the main gap i have found to be an obstacle in becoming a good trader is in experience (being mainly screentime for me) , which is always free, just v time consuming. All my opinion, of course.

And fyi, oil pricing is fixed (shock horror), so i wld be interested to hear what ICE have to say about Total's comments on the fixing, and how best ppl like you and me can position ourselves to make money out of a rigged market......

Total warns over ‘inaccurate’ benchmarks - FT.com

if the FT link requires you register heres another article...
LIBOR-gate Comes To Crude: Total Exposes Price Fixing In The Energy Market | ZeroHedge

g/l.
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