Gold calls.Long term -medium term and intraday calls in gold is here !.

This is a discussion on Gold calls.Long term -medium term and intraday calls in gold is here !. within the Commodities & Money Markets forums, part of the Markets category; Originally Posted by sujithsstorock Update on 8 may 2017 Current price is 1230$ you still holding shorts with target of ...

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Old May 9, 2017, 10:11pm   #11611
Joined Apr 2017
Quote:
Originally Posted by sujithsstorock View Post
Update on 8 may 2017
Current price is 1230$
you still holding shorts with target of 1050?

can you post your analysis to show why that target?
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Old May 10, 2017, 5:22am   #11612
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tablemountain View Post
you still holding shorts with target of 1050?

can you post your analysis to show why that target?
Yes I am still holding the shorts .

I studied financial engineering and risk management recently.
There is this sentiment analysis of retail participants that trigger the reversal of prices. It does help a lot with identifying over bought or under bought areas.

Garch (1,1) analysis helps alot in such mathematical calculations.

In simple terms I have put up a technical analysis chart few posts back. This crash was predicted back in march 8Th
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Old May 10, 2017, 10:19pm   #11613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sujithsstorock View Post
Yes I am still holding the shorts .

I studied financial engineering and risk management recently.
There is this sentiment analysis of retail participants that trigger the reversal of prices. It does help a lot with identifying over bought or under bought areas.

Garch (1,1) analysis helps alot in such mathematical calculations.

In simple terms I have put up a technical analysis chart few posts back. This crash was predicted back in march 8Th
ok, i also saw it as a short trend, was short 1235 got out around 1233 (waaay too early!!)

I'm going to see if price action shows me a short at 1225, daily still looks like its going lower.

surprised gold didnt jump with oil today, read an article once which showed the correlation between gold and oil, of course it wasn't absolute but very close which surprised me

anyhow, lets see how tomorrow goes....
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Old May 14, 2017, 9:38pm   #11614
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Daily: showed me gold was still short trend, especially price action at 1234 area, 2 daily sessions showed when it hit that area it went right back down.

1hr chart:
I had 1228 has a level for resistance, it broke this and i switched to 5 min chart for entry.

5 min chart: I didnt get my ideal entry until 14.05, red candle bar on extreme of bollinger, RSI and Stoch both on their extremes (note: unless they are over their extremes, even if its just slightly, i dont enter, being just under the extreme is not good enough for me)

I got in at 1230.89

Unfortunately I got out by accident at 1230.09, (I was on the mobile app) I meant to put a stop in to lock in some profit and put in a limit order which stopped me out right away.

If you held this until 5pm you could have seen it go into profit as low as 1226, if you held overnight/weekend, looks like would still be in the money

Still short trend for me Gold, ill try improve my entry and hold for nice profit and show if my strategy works again
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Old May 15, 2017, 10:45pm   #11615
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Daily- showed last 2 sessions, positive, going up, bullish. So I was weary if short trend had reversed, however my strategy is on daily look back at last 3 sessions to establish trend so 2 positive bullish candles were not enough for me to say go long.

1 hour chart: I had a previous level of 1234 which I went short at successfully before. 1 hour candle bar broke this level. I switched to 5 min for entry

5 min entry- I got entry at 1234.95 and it went onside, then went quite offside to 1237 but came back onside to a low of 1229. 5 min entry has candle bar on extreme of bollinger and rsi and stoch on their extremes.

Hard to say if short trend has reversed, but interestingly look at the daily chart for the level of 1234, could have made money shorting this 3 times (i only managed twice!)

Gold is treating me well these days....

5 min entry seems to work well also
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Old May 17, 2017, 9:11pm   #11616
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on 16th May at 7.40am GMT went short spot gold at a res level I had, 1234.

In hindsight , daily had showed short trend had reversed, and was now bullish so was very silly and risky of me to go short.

But I wanted to show how my 5 min entry works, it has worked on this price level for me 3 times and other parts of the chart show opportunity where this 5 min entry works.

Notice that candle bar is on extreme of bollinger and RSI and Stoch are on their extremes.

This entry works well for me on oil also.

BUT always use it with the overall trend and at significant levels (of res or sup whichever the trend maybe)


NOW- where to go long? I'm waiting for a retracement but which level will it go down to? 1245 price is on fib level, much closer is 1257 price on fib level.

But for me, to justify going long as high as 1257, Id have to see some serious fundamental factors to show gold is a long bet.

I prefer waiting for 1245 and going long round that area. either that or wait for what I call intra day support on 1hr chart and go long there
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Old May 18, 2017, 10:49am   #11617
 
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I see gold as being in major long term trend resistance going back to 2011:

Click the image to open in full size.

It would have to pop through that and successful retest the old line before I decide long. But maybe I'm biased because I want gold to be cheap. This is all Trump's fault

Last edited by myattitude; May 18, 2017 at 9:11pm.
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Old May 19, 2017, 7:58am   #11618
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Originally Posted by myattitude View Post
I see gold as being in major long term trend resistance going back to 2011:

Click the image to open in full size.

It would have to pop through that and successful retest the old line before I decide long. But maybe I'm biased because I want gold to be cheap. This is all Trump's fault
on a longer term time frame I would agree, I think gold is still bearish. This quick retracement back up, could hit 13000 then come right back down, especially if the fundamentals are there which in the longer term I think they are.

Look yesterday how it hit 1264, this was a previous price where it dropped on short trend on 27th Feb.

Depending how you have the fib levels set it can also be a fib level (see the 2 charts) , either way, both were significant levels and just added to each other showing potential for short. Dont forget how many times 1234 showed short selling, so it showed there was enough selling activity in gold to make some money selling.

1hr chart went sideways from 3pm (GMT) on 17th May to about 6am (GMT) 18th may. this could show indecision rather then continuation of trend. I dont think anything here in particular showed price action to short.

5 min entry, which I use and is working very well on oil light crude and spot gold, was perfect.

Just look at the long wicks at the top when it hits 1264. Added to that, candle is on extremes on bollinger, rsi and stoch.

All those just give extra back up to the level.

Then, with no offside, it just drops and drops......big money opportunity and I missed it as I was concentrating on a long position I had with oil light crude

Must look at positives; I had the levels right and my 5 min entry works.

I'll be looking long 1245 if price action and 5 min entry shows me to enter. If not i will have to reconsider whether its a short or long market.
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Thanks! The following members like this post: myattitude
Old May 25, 2017, 6:19am   #11619
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Old Jun 7, 2017, 9:57am   #11620
 
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1296-1315 mega rez area
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Old Jun 7, 2017, 9:59am   #11621
 
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Originally Posted by dentist007 View Post
gold in supp now
1224-1226 area
was out 1214 the low hit on May 9th...a day later from the posting
excellent rally from our supp area
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Old Jun 8, 2017, 2:29pm   #11622
 
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Originally Posted by dentist007 View Post
1296-1315 mega rez area
our 1296 rez really workin well
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Old Jun 11, 2017, 4:10pm   #11623
 
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Gold 2hour data

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Old Jun 11, 2017, 4:12pm   #11624
 
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trend supp/green in 1264/1265 area
trend rez and prev supp area at 1282/1284
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Old Jul 9, 2017, 7:27am   #11625
 
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Gold
rangebound
supp could come in

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