Bund Bobl and Schatz Thread

This is a discussion on Bund Bobl and Schatz Thread within the Commodities & Money Markets forums, part of the Markets category; Mpoufos Thanks Man! Good Trading Everyone...

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Old Mar 13, 2008, 8:46am   #136
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buy 'em started this thread Mpoufos

Thanks Man!

Good Trading Everyone
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 8:53am   #137
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Mpoufos,

OK, if a trade prints but doesn't go through the book, then it is either a block trade or a cross: "thats what they want u to think." To what purpose?

I understand the confidentiality aspect but all we have so far are oblique references to vague notions based on ambiguous innuendo. It’s as clear as that.

“just couldnt see people writting... [who] dont have a clue”. The way this is progressing we’ll all remain in blissful ignorance.

Arbitrageur,

As you recommend M’s posts, maybe you could shed some light?

Grant.
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 9:37am   #138
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grant english is not my first language so pls rephrase ur statement i lost u after mpufos
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 9:50am   #139
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buy 'em started this thread mpufos

At least you know another language lol!!! English is all I know. I think what he was trying to say was why do they want you to think that it was crossed or a block trade?
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 10:03am   #140
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ok cool i see. so i ll put an ex. lets say the big guy is long bunds from 118.00. the quantity of the contracts that he is trading is enormous so lets say that this guy has 20000 bunds long. when he reaches the highs most of the offers are probably his so what he does is to try and push the market. so lets say he is offering 1400 at 118.09. he crosses 1200 at 118.09 with the other account making people believe there is paper buying. now if the other locals and big guys get on his back and start clearing offers he is gonna keep crossing some his offers while long covering a bit, until he sees the buying pressure fades out. then everyone thinks o **** that things is going up he stops crossing and covers the rest of his position but in a very smart way so it doesnt show that he is covering. so he might cover 10000 and do another fake try to the upside and cover the rest at t ahigher level
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 10:10am   #141
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look at the move just now in the bund from 90 to 118.05 all the way back to 98. u think that was paper buying? lol
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 10:15am   #142
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mpoufos View Post
look at the move just now in the bund from 90 to 118.05 all the way back to 98. u think that was paper buying? lol
I was tempted to get in around 118.02.
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 10:30am   #143
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buy 'em started this thread nice

I am starting to understand how the game works now. Im short a fair amount of schatz at 105.19 and so far so good.
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 10:31am   #144
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buy 'em started this thread So mpoufos, any way you could give us a couple of tips as to how to locate whether this guy is net long or short? Is he just in the bund or does he play in the bobl and schatz also?

Thanks Man
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 10:38am   #145
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buy 'em started this thread Genuine bid at 105.15 (4k lot) in schatz. Traded a ton of contracts at this level and I expect it to hold.
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 11:14am   #146
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mpoufos is talking about 'flippers' who trade actively in the bunds. Do a search on Paul Rotter who trades 200-300,000 roundturns a day and reportedly makes 50-60 million EUR a year just trading Eurex. Now has his own fund rotterinvest.com These are the kind of people you're up against worth baring in mind.
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 11:24am   #147
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buy 'em started this thread I understand the flippers (especially what Paul does) but for some reason I think mpoufos is talking about a different trading style and not just the same old flipping.
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 11:50am   #148
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its the same guys just evolved with the market, creating new styles each time and it makes sense. u cant use the same style every time, the market eventually gets u. these guys manipulate bobl and schatz most of the times to get fills in bunds. especially bobl man since it has gone half tick look at it. its a joke. schatz the same but in a less extent (although some mormings it has a bigger range than the bund). there is not a specific tip that i can give u (everyone has his own style) every time is different. i suppose u have to feel the pain in order to feel the market. me personally i go commando on his back if i see he is going for an exaggeration move and try to cover in gann levels and reverse my position there. and most of the times i try to catch the reversal on exaggeration moves. it always depends on the time as well. but there is nothing better than catching a good 20-30 tick move either on a trend or figure or whatever it is. i dont use any advanced charts or any rocket engineering charts. just try to catch the feeling of the market and if i am wrong i am wrong
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 11:58am   #149
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tray dar i think rotter is well known among here. btw i think he makes a lot more
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Old Mar 13, 2008, 12:01pm   #150
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buy 'em started this thread Mpoufos

Thanks a lot for the advice it is greatly appreciated! Im done for the day but before I leave I would like to ask you one more question. I have noticed that say when the market is 93 bid at 94 offered and 94 gets taken out in one clip (or a few clips) then a bid steps up at 94 but its small and as soon as it steps up it gets taken out. Then another small bid will appear and it too gets taken out. If the small bid does not step up anymore a nice size offer appears at 94 and it gets hit in size again. Then the process repeats itself.

However if 94 gets taken out and a large bid steps up this does not happen and instead guys start hitting the 95 offer.

Can you tell me if the guys that keeps hitting the small bids stepping up are the big locals? It makes since because they are actually long the market and they are crossing the offers and finally when a bid steps up they first have to decide if it looks big enough that it could carry some momentum and they might be able to milk the market for a few more ticks or if it is not a very big bid and they need to hit it and cover as many of their longs as they can.

Just something I noticed today after reading you recent posts.

Thanks Again, you have made this thread much more valuable imo!

Good Trading Guys
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