How I trade crude oil

This is a discussion on How I trade crude oil within the Commodities & Money Markets forums, part of the Markets category; go with the trend, use price action to get into trade and you can see profit. Trend on daily oil ...

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Old Apr 24, 2017, 9:26pm   #17
Joined Apr 2017
go with the trend, use price action to get into trade and you can see profit.

Trend on daily oil light clearly showed trend of going short

1hr chart showed 2 consecutive bars with wicks ontop showing sellers pushing back down.

if you went onto 5 min chart after the second bearish candle closed you could have seen a couple of entries.

Which is best I don't know, me personally I can see 2 bars with wicks where you could have got in. You could have also just go in on the close of the 1hr chart at 50.10, you could have seen a profit down to 49.30

tomorrow i'm looking for short on oil, why? because trend is bearish.

If price action shows long I'm staying away, I want to go with overall trend. I'll only go long if at least 3 daily sessions show a bullish trend (higher highs, higher lows, not a sideways trend)
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oil-light-daily.png   oil-light-1hr.png   oil-light-5-min.png  

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Old Apr 28, 2017, 12:22am   #18
Joined Jul 2008
Tablemountain,

I traded oil for fun this week (es mini specialist), the trades were sound and I traded both (added positions to the second short) The first short via the 5 min, was the easiest trade of the day, you can't see on your chart , but structurally we upthrusted a recent high, volume picked up indicating supply and as we broke the previous low I let the market pull me in, going with the flow. For the second trade the 1st bar is aggressive, I understand why you entered here (the large up bar, showed no upside follow through and we broke the low, yes the market does like to test, but not like this, at the time I remembered thinking, is this way TRUE demand acts, is this buying of good quality no. hence this was orchestrated by the larger funded operators to eradicate weak shorts. The second arrow confirmed weakness and I added a few contracts, rode it down for few hours. I like oil, its a different beast, but not as graceful as the S&P, depends on my mood :-)

Good luck
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Old Apr 28, 2017, 4:57am   #19
Joined Apr 2017
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Originally Posted by jobin View Post
Which way is crude going to move this week?
If anyone knew they would not be here.
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Old Apr 28, 2017, 2:23pm   #20
Joined Jul 2008
Foroom.

I disagree, one should be predicting direction within their individual gaming plan. Oil, yes can be a little volatile, BUT still adheres to market structure and principles. Oil set ups for swing trading occur more frequently ( I hold anywhere between 3 days and 2 weeks). Ergo, of course one can gauge direction. Markets aren't complicated, break it down to its simplest form, demand/supply and look for imbalances.
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Old Apr 28, 2017, 2:54pm   #21
Joined Apr 2017
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Originally Posted by Peacefull Warrior View Post
Foroom.

I disagree, one should be predicting direction within their individual gaming plan. Oil, yes can be a little volatile, BUT still adheres to market structure and principles. Oil set ups for swing trading occur more frequently ( I hold anywhere between 3 days and 2 weeks). Ergo, of course one can gauge direction. Markets aren't complicated, break it down to its simplest form, demand/supply and look for imbalances.
Give us foresight signal in advance and post them here.
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Old May 2, 2017, 9:44pm   #22
Joined Apr 2017
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
Give us foresight signal in advance and post them here.
On 25th April I went short oil light crude.

I went short because daily chart showed me short trend.

I used 1 hour chart for set up. I could see a level 49.55, hit previously and it went short and on the day the 1hr bar at 9am and 10am hit the level leaving wicks at the top, to me it showed an area where sellers were pushing down.

5 min chart could have shown great entry at 49.50 (look at the pattern, the price action on candle bar, and if you wanted stoch and RSI could have helped)

I got in earlier at 49.35 , I didnt want to 'miss the train'.

Went offside a bit, but no worries came in onside as low as 49

I got out at 49.08

nice little profit.

I have noticed other areas where this same type of set up could have worked, but I have been away from trading for a week or so.

Tomorrow will analyse the charts again and see if I can keep making money off oil
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Old May 5, 2017, 6:20pm   #23
Joined Jul 2008
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Originally Posted by foroom lluzers View Post
Give us foresight signal in advance and post them here.
This is the exact problem with this industry, people want the ''easy way'', if I gave you direction - how will that possibly help you and you're trading plan?? It doesn't there are no quick fixes, trading takes time, effort, experience and more importantly heart, we are in a performance orientated profession - every day we stand up to the podium, everyday we step in the ring against better funded, better resourced, more experienced traders; the only thing or positive I can draw is my work ethic, I will not be outworked. I trade intraday 5 days a week, have 2 international study groups to polish skills, I practice every single day for 2 hours (at weekends I write up my trades for the week and highlight my weaknesses and strengths and then incorporate the needed structure for improvement) premarket analysis a further 2 hours, and an hour a day to learn new material. This is how wining is achieved in the markets, I have one setup with a 93% success rate, this started at 55%, it's only through highlighting weaknesses and incorporating them into ones practice, can we grow and improve. It frustrates me that people want the holy grail, the easy way out, there ISN'T!! The real question is how hard are you working, more importantly how smart. It isn't about the methodology or strategy, this is discretionary - moving average cross over setups, work!! 100% something this simple, BUT you need to know the filters, when to use them, how to use them correctly, and the limitations of the trade itself. (for the record im from the school of Wyckoff) we all have different risk tolerances, different levels of validation through an indicator to instil confidence to pull the trigger etc. A throw away comment asking for direction, helps no-one!?! Work harder and smarter. Good luck
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Old May 5, 2017, 6:58pm   #24
 
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i'm going to short 12

want 10-12 ticks
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