Are JGBs about to collapse soon?

arabianights

arabianights

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Looks like we have most of the ingredients tied up. Mind you, I could imagine others thinking the same a decade ago!

Thoughts?
 
Don't worry, cap'n... Trust me on this, this trade is a trap for wannabe macro BSDs. Like clockwork, they get f*cked over every year. Last year it was Einhorn who started the craze, with Paulson hot on his heels. The publicity generated probably helped the first guy into the trade to get out, but the ones that followed weren't so lucky.
 
Oh I know it's been "popular" for a while, indeed I believe original BSDs @ LTCM were doing it back in late 90s... but timing is everything, you know?
 
arabianights said:
Oh I know it's been "popular" for a while, indeed I believe original BSDs @ LTCM were doing it back in late 90s... but timing is everything, you know?
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Fo' shizzle... I just don't think there's any reason to believe that the time is right. I think you're gonna know when/if it's the Big One and that's when you go postal on 'em JGBs.
 
How is Japan managing to keep going? Isn't its debt to GDP something like 200%?
 
Martinghoul said:
Fo' shizzle... I just don't think there's any reason to believe that the time is right. I think you're gonna know when/if it's the Big One and that's when you go postal on 'em JGBs.
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hi :)

can you say what you mean by go postal?

i think the japanese have like post office pensions or something? is that what your talking about?
 
Gentlemen, have pity on a poor retail boy and let me know if I need to take a fundamental view on JPY.
 
No. I mean rather than take a fine view on where the Daily pivot is and decide on a quickie based on technicals, whether I should be expecting the ass to drop out of the Yen imminently and bollox to the technicals, and just go large on a cheap Yen.
 
Are you trying to wind me up Paz? ‘Cos if you are, just remember, I have the picture of you with Arabian’s brother. Well, just Arabian’s brother actually, but just after he’s finished with you….it’s enough.
 
hmm.... I am tempted to short em soon... need to see how they react to BOJ liquidity support.
 
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