Re: Spot Forex Vs Forex Futures
"The "futures" market represents the perception of where that same currency pair will be trading at on a specific date in the future. For example, if you are trading the March 2009 Dollar / Yen, the price represents today's perceived value of the future (March 2009) exchange rate."
Wholly incorrect. Perception has nothing to do with the futures price. The futures price is simply the spot price adjusted for the forward interest rate differential, i.e the 'carry'. Futures cannot trade differently to spot beyond a few seconds because arbitrage with the cash would bring them rapidly back into line.
If you look at the futures price compared with spot, say, 3 months ahead, especially with a currency pair with large interest rate differentials such as AUD/USD, then it will be distinctly different. But as maturity gets closer, it will converge to the spot rate. Has to.
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