The Impact of Crude Oil Futures on Trading the Dow

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Anthony Trongone

21 Sep, 2006

in Futures and 1 more

Is there a correlation between Crude Oil Futures and the Dow? And can this correlation be quantified?

In my August 30, 2006 market summary, I wrote how “we would be foolish not to avail ourselves of the inverse pricing relationship between crude-oil and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  Since then, the price of crude has fallen $6.35 and the Dow is 227 points to the upside.

But, now that the distance between these two indicators appears to be excessive, will this wide discrepancy begin to shrink?

In August, energy prices were approaching $80 a barrel, the major equity indices were flat, but as the continuous NYMEX light sweet crude-oil futures contract (CL #F) was sputtering, the markets began spurting upwards.  If you compare the 60-minute pricing between crude-oil with the Dow Jones Industrial Average there was a strong inverse correlation (-.616), which demonstrates the persuasive influence of crude prices on the market.

Although the Dow pushed ahead 429.53 points in the previous 75 trading days (Jun1, 2006 – Sep 15, 2006), most of gains came after the crude-oil futures contract could not penetrate resistance (August 9, 2006).  Thereafter, the contract began to drop rapidly (from 7715 to 6339); however, the Dow’s reaction was very positive - gaining 352.43 points in 27 trading days.

In this article, as we further investigate the impact of the recent plunge in crude-oil prices and we answer specific questions, it will supplement our understanding of how the Dow interacts with this fashionable inflation gauge.  According to today’s financial papers, the decrease in energy prices will be a boost for consumer spending: fueling the Dow into record territory.  

In the 75 trading days, the continuous crude-oil contract had the following hourly price range (9 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET):

If you are trading the market on the basis of current energy prices, some of the more meaningful performance questions are:


What was the Dow’s performance when crude-oil was trading below its 25 percentile?

What was the Dow’s performance when crude-oil was trading below its 50 percentile?

What was the Dow’s performance when crude-oil was trading above its 50 percentile?

What was the Dow’s performance when crude-oil was trading above its 75 percentile?

Since there is a strong inverse correlation between these two highly popular indicators, an awareness of how they function simultaneously can certainly fortify your know-how as a day-trader. 

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Has longevity

The findings still hold.

Jul 20, 2012

Registered User (2 posts)

a 75 day window is not very appealing. Would be interested in seeing a multiyear comparison and analysis

Jun 29, 2007

Rookie (13 posts)

Extremely thought provoking. Want to read additional material in upcoming articles.

LKat

Sep 22, 2006

Newbie (2 posts)

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