Picture A is more important.
Every time you have "sell A and buy B when X happens" you are timing the market.
On forex I ma using moving averege crosses since 2015 so I am not buying bottoms.
There is notperfect trend indicator but every time you define condition to enter and exit you are timing the market, you are trespassing from investing to trading.
Dual Momentum is pretty simple and slow but it is a tradingstrategy with a couple of parameters so it can be overfitted, pretty precise and efficient with the past.
no really, you mean what ive been doing for years is called market timing?
Cavaliere, of course i know its called market timing. my point is..it doesnt need to be "perfect".
picture B. Perfect market timing
it doesnt need to be. noddy market timing works equally as well. what makes the "difference" is not timing, its asset allocation. thats what gets me to p1ssing all over the market. timing as you say simply tells me to get in or get out of equity
yes, it can be momentum, it can moving average xover, it can be macd, it can be anything. anything at all
yes too, it can be overfitted, but how overfitted is it, if a 10 period MA works, and a 9 period, and an 8 period, and a 11 or 12 period..not so overfitted anymore is it?
momentum, yep you could go by antonacci, and use 12 period (bit late for me). you could use faber who uses a mixture of 3, 6 and 9 to reduce curvefitting. I know backtesting, honestly. i know its the past, i also know its a good indicator for the future. but you have to start somewhere. im not reinventing the wheel
start with something that works, then improve it