endo77
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I would like to discuss this buying Darwins on a dip in more detail as it is an interesting topic.Darwinia buys highs(allocates darwins when they are on high points or when bad darwins are having sharp monthly pullback(upwards) on their way down). Exactly the opposite of what I recommend in this thread.
Let's start with the basics. Let's take the most simple example of a betting system. Coinflip: win $6 on heads but lose $5 on tails. If I flip heads 2x in a row am I more likely to get tails? What about vice versa? NO! It doesn't matter what's happened in the past, law of averages does not take on a debt. In an absolutely unchanging system (granted Darwins are not) where we know the exact system and edge (granted with a Darwin we don't) we should not wait till some loses occur. We should buy ASAP.
We can chart the winnings and losses of our coinflip game in to a chart, give it an arbitrary price to "buy in at" based on it's wins and loses (in exactly the way a Darwin is "priced") yet still we do not wait and buy on a dip, it is correct to simply buy ASAP once we realize we have an edge. With me so far?
OK OK Darwins are NOT simple betting systems and we do not know their edge, we can only barely estimate the edge. Yes Darwins, markets and human psychology can have cycles. Yes any trader is probably more likely to "fix" her problem during some losses. If you can identify these cycles or have reason to believe your edge has gone up or will go up in a Darwin DD then by all means wait for a DD but do not arbitrarily wait for a DD to "get a better price," it's non-sense. You are just essentially entering a contract, giving the trader your money to trade. If you buy in to a Darwin 10@$10 or 1@$100 and the system or Darwin has the same edge as it did before, you are going to have the exact same expectancy and risk to your capitol.