Why there?

So do you think they fill their orders at any price, that it's effectively random to the rest of the market (and to them)? If they don't care about the price of execution...do they care about the time they execute? Do they care about anything? Are billions thrown around with such randomness?

You need to apply some context to the deals taking place and their motivation.
A lot of, but not all, large insti FX trades are purely on behalf of or placed
directly by multi national companies as a hedge against future revenue receipts
in another currency. Also there is the issue of said companies having more than
one base currency for operating capital accounts.

Say Toyota place a deal with a UK based ancillary manufacturer in yen
for delivery at a future date. The UK manufacturer now carries yen market risk,
which it needs to hedge in the FX market.
Flip that around and Toyota japan do the same deal in euros with Bosch for
a batch of diesel injectors, now Toyota carry euro risk they need to hedge.

In other words, these kind of international deals drive hedge trades which
are time sensitive, not price sensitive.
Is there any way of knowing when that will happen, an indicator, or futures
tape & order book or even the interbank market itself, put simply, I don't believe so.
Then again price and probability will suffice for us mere mortals.
The only indicator that will work there is inside info, which is actually not illegal
in FX markets and so is another driving force in itself.

In short a lot of insti level large size is trade related, indeed, China owning
a boatload of USD is purely trade related.
Obviously there are other factors such as central banks and so on as well.

In answer to original question, I don't know.
Depends on who the most dominant participants were at that time and their motivations.
Its pretty much central banks, large speculators or trade hedging that drive price.
Who wins in the moment on the day, those with the deepest pockets.
 
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Interesting. Sorry for my ignorance, but what does the blue line represent/measure, and is the blue line in place on your chart before the sell off from 1520?

Thanks

Sorry Wallstreet, i always get asked the same and keep on forgetting
The blue line is drawn as soon as I have a bullish chart. Its known before the selloff, and is at a constant 45degrees. A bit like the Ganns 1x1 but its not the same. It all depends on the box size and reversal size i use, but its uncanny how accurate a trend line is..here's another example
Lloyds, this shows where it will reverse, and sometimes possibly when
Notice there is no discernable trend line on the candle chart..but the blue trend line on the P&F is clear and never broken until most recently and then theres another chart that shows where that was likely to end..which was posted on T2W when it broke at 38..because this could easily look like cherry picking
 

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You need to apply some context to the deals taking place and their motivation.
A lot of, but not all, large insti FX trades are purely on behalf of or placed
directly by multi national companies as a hedge against future revenue receipts
in another currency. Also there is the issue of said companies having more than
one base currency for operating capital accounts.

Say Toyota place a deal with a UK based ancillary manufacturer in yen
for delivery at a future date. The UK manufacturer now carries yen market risk,
which it needs to hedge in the FX market.
Flip that around and Toyota japan do the same deal in euros with Bosch for
a batch of diesel injectors, now Toyota carry euro risk they need to hedge.

In other words, these kind of international deals drive hedge trades which
are time sensitive, not price sensitive.
Is there any way of knowing when that will happen, an indicator, or futures
tape & order book or even the interbank market itself, put simply, I don't believe so.
Then again price and probability will suffice for us mere mortals.
The only indicator that will work there is inside info, which is actually not illegal
in FX markets and so is another driving force in itself.

In short a lot of insti level large size is trade related, indeed, China owning
a boatload of USD is purely trade related.
Obviously there are other factors such as central banks and so on as well.

In answer to original question, I don't know.
Depends on who the most dominant participants were at that time and their motivations.
Its pretty much central banks, large speculators or trade hedging that drive price.
Who wins in the moment on the day, those with the deepest pockets.

Yep, and Barjon was also making this point. So perhaps some business needs to be transacted at 15:00 during news, and at 18:00 during lunch, and this business has a price or time sensitivity, and this is what caused these turns, however temporary they may be. And since there is no way in advance we can know this business might occur, perhaps we can't take advantage of it. Seems a good point.

So then back to the initial chart. Do you think that these swing points I mentioned are due to this business that Barjon and LV point out, that nobody could know was coming? Does nobody have any idea why price might (remember I'm only talking about might, not certainty) have turned in those areas, either before it did, or soon after? Were there any speculators at these areas trading in the direction it subsequently moved?
 
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Yep, and Barjon was also making this point. So perhaps some business needs to be transacted at 15:00 during news, and at 18:00 during lunch, and this business has a price or time sensitivity, and this is what caused these turns, however temporary they may be. And since there is no way in advance we can know this business might occur, perhaps we can't take advantage of it. Seems a good point.

Certain times of day are important and are well known. The 2 major fixing times for currencies and the CME close time will see a flurry of activity about 15 minutes prior and up to the fixing and then abruptly stop. Option expiry times usually get quiet about 1-2 hours before expiry then usually a decent move starting immediately after. You CAN take advantage of them, like clockwork. :)


Fixing Times
Tokyo 8:55am
London 4:00pm

Option expiry times:
Tokyo 3:00pm
NY 10:00am

CME Futures close:
NY 3:00pm

Peter
 
Speaking generally, I've often been amazed at how precisely price can react to levels. Take this instance in Gbp/Usd a couple weeks ago:



No explanation needed, really. The line at 1.5685 says it all. That line is also the rough midpoint for the entire range, which is another phenomenon I witness regularly. I can't explain it, but I can speculate a large player perhaps wanted to trade at that price, stopped once the range got too far from his price, then resumed trading once it did. Though this is also possibly incorrect and to be taken with a grain of salt. :)
 
Perhaps I chose a poor chart for EURUSD. Lets try another:

Can anyone tell me anything about ANY of the locations of turns/swing points in these 5 min charts of GBPUSD (where are cablemonster and BBmac)- either something that could be expected in advance or something that could be known as soon as possible after the low or high has been put in?

I realise some people think this can't be done, or is perhaps irrelevant. I have two points for those:

Consider the consequences of it being completely random and you not being able to make any prediction with any degree of accuracy. Was the EURUSD more likely to have its low on that day within the range 1.2950-1.3000 than to have the low between 1.2450-1.2500? If the answer is yes, then this means not all outcomes are equally likely, it isn't distributed uniformly. We can say something about the likelihood, so don't give up and think we can't know. Maybe we can't know exactly, but we can always say something.

Also for those trading directionally, whether trading trend or reversal, you are looking to spot turns either before or at some point after a low or high has been made.

Consider Robster's trade dissection (sorry Rob). He noted an area that was the current daily low. Price came down and tested it, he didn't assume it would turn but he was aware, and then noted soon after that the low had held. The consequences of it turning THERE meant something to him.

In the GBPUSD chart, I would say the high on 28th Feb at about 13:10, is related to the high on the 26 Feb (not shown on chart). This means something to me. Even as price approaches that area and it hasn't yet bounced, it means something to me.

Now, any others?
 

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Can anyone tell me anything about ANY of the locations of turns/swing points in these 5 min charts of GBPUSD (where are cablemonster and BBmac)- either something that could be expected in advance or something that could be known as soon as possible after the low or high has been put in?

I realise some people think this can't be done, or is perhaps irrelevant. I have two points for those:

Now, any others?

well, for me this is dynamic, and resistance is dynamic as time goes on.
So at the moment I see two main areas for potential turning points if price starts retracing.
 

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Consider Robster's trade dissection (sorry Rob).

Yes - it meant that nobody wanted to trade below 13.75 that day and the market kindly double checked just to make sure :)

No need to apologise - if it's a good point of reference for something then use it.
 
For my own education, and perhaps others, I'm looking at why price turned where it did. I'm interested in any reasons that you can reasonably back up. If you think it is because of a Fib retracement, something on the DOM in the respective future, market profile, manipulation, stop run, a trendline, whatever (that includes indicators!), I'm interested in hearing it.

So my own 'model' of price thinks of it as moving between areas of potential support and resistance, on different timeframes. I draw a region around recent lows (horizontal lines), and if broken through, I leave them there for a possible SbR or RbS effect.

Now 1st March, 8am bar, we see a move up above the overnight high (stops taken?), above the 28th Feb 5pm bar (more stops?) and into previous potential support become resistance area with confluence of the round number 1.3100 and it turns there.

Now I didn't know it would turn there, not many people would know, but there was at least a reasonable expectation that it 'could'. This is important as it means we can take profits or adjust stops, manage our position better etc.

So then I am interested in the unusual ones that don't fit into my model, that will fit into many of yours I'm sure.

So why the turn at the low 1.2967. The time 3pm is relevant to me. Aside from the U.S. news out then, we quite often get a reversal around this time. but why at 1.2967, but why not push a bit lower to 1.2950 or wherever else?

Also why the turn at 1.3042 at the 5pm bar?

P.S. please post any other charts in which you were confused/surprised by the location of a turn. I am thinking that if it progresses we will find a core set of ideas that relate to most (but never all) turns.

for me at least identifying areas of previous support and resistance and noting if this previous support and resistance is present on longer timeframes is the most powerful method of identifying potential future turning points. So for example you may look at the H1 timeframe and check to see if the previous support and resistance extends to the H4, D, W timeframes. Other factors can be added in for additional confluence, I use fibs, TL's and orders touted on MNI.

Of course these areas are 'zones' and not distinct levels.

I would bear in mind there are many ways to use previous S/R, I trade reactions to these levels which may or may not result in a full blown reversal on that timeframe.

As for price turning at points I dont have marked up, it does happen but not that often. When it does happen it is often things like unscheduled data which creates an instrument specific move or a risk on/risk off correlated move which 'resets' the normal ebb and flow of the market.

If I am to enter against the prevailing trend then I need substantial confluence to be present, the stronger the trend the stronger the confluence required. So if price is not at a major previous Support and Resistance zone I do not even consider trading against the trend, no ifs not buts, I stay out.

Of course depending on your methods you may need to add a 'with trend' strategy otherwise it can be easy to get taken apart in a trending market.
 
well, for me this is dynamic, and resistance is dynamic as time goes on.
So at the moment I see two main areas for potential turning points if price starts retracing.

Here's an update to my chart, price has reversed exactly where the resistance line suggested.
 

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Here's an update to my chart, price has reversed exactly where the resistance line suggested.

What do you use as an idea for potential profit targets? Do you apply a parallel channel for example?
 
What do you use as an idea for potential profit targets? Do you apply a parallel channel for example?

I generally will do one of three things, I exit at the suggested targets which P&F is able to generate, I've attached the targets. As soon as this is reached, I will have exited at least 60% depending on how long in the trade, my faith in the analysis etc
or I will exit some at the next sell signal generated by the chart, or (and the most likely) I exit to keep the 1:2 ratio that I have. I am able to hit the 1:2 more often than not before the next exit signal.
 

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