Trading with point and figure

Yeah brother I read that book, and couldn't understand. He does not explain very well, you gotta use some functions of the calculator I don't know how, then you have to reconvert the log to get the price, that is not explained.

best you reread the book until you grasp his method....i had to do that on many occasions
 
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Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture - 11 December 2018 - ADM ISI


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Ostwald, Marc
08:21 (21 minutes ago)

to Marc





- No Brexit vote, but still plenty to consider on the schedule of data
and events: digesting Australia House Price fall & French Payrolls/Wages,
awaiting UK labour data, German ZEW, US NFIB Survey and PPI; India State
election results, UK BOE FPC minutes and German/US govt bond auctions

- UK Labour data: wage growth seen holding higher pace, Employment growth
expected to remain tepid; creep higher in Claimant Count worth keeping
an eye on

- Germany ZEW: if usual mirroring of DAX performance applies, then risks
to the downside of forecasts for Expectations index

- US PPI: oil prices likely to weigh on headline, food neutral, trade
services as ever the big wild card, seen dipping after Oct jump

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

The day's supposed main event - the UK Parliament's vote on the Brexit agreement with the EU - has been postponed, but there is still plenty of note on the schedule. Statistically, there are the poor Australian Q3 House Price and largely as expected French Payrolls data to digest, though in both case the outlook is deteriorating, with monthly data for Sydney suggesting that the fall in House Prices is accelerating, while the Gilets Jaunes protests imply that French Q4 Payrolls will not be as encouraging. Ahead lie UK labour market indicators, the pointless German ZEW survey which will doubtless drop further given that it generally mirrors the performance of the DAX stock index, while the US has the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey, and the first of this week's run of US inflation indicators, in the shape of PPI. Govt bond supply sees Germany sell a modest EUR 3.0 Bln of 2-yr Schatz and the US kick off this week's $78 Bln of coupon refinancing with $38 Bln of 3-yr. The results of the five state elections in India will be very closely watched, amid signs that next year's General Election will be anything but a coronation parade for PM Modi, the more so given the resignation of RBI governor Patel due to hefty government interference, amid a precarious financial sector backdrop and a somewhat shaky economic outlook. There are also the latest minutes from the quarterly BoE FPC meeting, and testimony to the US congress from Google CEO Pichai against the backdrop of a torrid time for the behemoths of the tech sector.

** U.K. - Postponed Brexit vote / Oct & Nov Labour indicators **
- As previously noted, the UK parliament appears to know no shame in its efforts to plunge the country ever deeper into a constitutional crisis, and the UK's reputation on the global stage has and will continue to be badly tarnished by this whole process, and it will take a very long time for it to be rebuilt, even if a still seemingly unlikely Article 50 withdrawal were to be the end result. Though the 'accidental hard #Brexit' probability is indeed rising. Eminently the UK is anything but unique, and he sad reality is we now have dysfunctional political institutions in USA, Australia, UK, Spain, Italy, Germany & France... and rather than debating the swing against globalization, which is merely symptomatic, a much more focussed debated needs to be had is one about political parties being so much the slaves of vested interests, that it is truly laughable to tout to EM and developing countries the need to establish robust public institutions, be that related to the executive, legislature or judiciary, let alone to evolving efficient and well maintained infrastructure. Be that as it may, the UK's labour market report requires attention to more than just Average Weekly Earnings (forecast at 3.0% y/y and ex-Bonus y/y, i.e. unchanged vs. Sept), in so far as Employment growth has been rather tepid and is expected to remain so at +25K (unsurprising given Brexit uncertainties). However it is the upward creep in the oft disparaged Claimant Count which has caught our attention, though at a not exactly rapid +20/30K per month since Q2, and thus suggesting some slack is emerging in the labour market, and perhaps more worrisome given the sharp downward turn in EU migration.

** U.S.A. - November PPI / NFIB Small Business Optimism **
- PPI is likely see a hefty drag from oil prices (though the NatGas prices surge should mitigate this in overall energy terms), Food prices have been mixed, with the core PPI measures of late showing some signs of price increases in consumer durable and capital equipment - the consensus looks for headline at Flat m/m and core at 0.1% m/m, which in y/y terms implies a fall to 2.5% y/y on both, from October's 2.9% and 2.6% respectively. The Trade Services component which has been inordinately volatile in recent will as ever be the wild card component. As much as the NFIB Small Business Optimism is expected to fall for a third month to 107.0 from October's 107.4, it remains close to cyclical and all time high of 108.9 and the all-time high of 108.0 way back in 1983, thus any miss relative to forecast should be kept in perspective, the more so as the low for 2018 is at 104.7. As ever sub-indices on Employment, Investment & Pricing intentions will require attention.
 
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