Best Thread Trade2Win's 10 Year Anniversary - Day 5 (Anatomy of a Trade)

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scose-no-doubt

Veteren member
4,630 954
Hi Timsk
My use of fibs and the extensions is related to harmonic patterns and gartley patterns / wolfe waves, etc and probably way too out there for most readers. Gartley wrote his book in 1934 and at the time it cost the equivalent of a couple of luxury cars. Today you can learn them if you are just willing to do the study. The last guy that started a thread on fibs and harmonic patterns got a bit of a drubbing and so I am a bit wary of going into the mystical juju aspect of it.

I mainly use support and resistance like a lot of the people here but there are times when price is in uncharted territory or you want to know which level price will go to and I find fibs helps me add weight to that.

I've seen some of your more fractal voodoo stuff. You should thread it, it's quite interesting. I doubt you will get flamed as much as you have a good rep. Also I'm sure you could persuade barjon and that to keep an eye :)
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,501
Hi elitejets,
Well done, superb video: eloquent, clear and measured. I could listen to you all day! If you haven't already, bung it on YouTube and you are assured a cult following.

One issue that I hope you might clarify is your use of fibs. I've been struck by just how many of the entrants to this comp' use fibs. Even DT (much to my surprise) said he used them. Can you expand on why you use them and why you have faith in them? To my way of thinking, this is the only 'hole' in an otherwise excellent explanation of your trade.
Thanks,
Tim.

Wash your mouth out Tim.

I don't use fibs. I just mark off 50% and 70% of a move because that's generally where I'll be looking for a pullback to end. If you look at the image you can see 50 & 70 - it's not clear at it's white on grey but it's just those two points market out. I like it to pullback more than half way. I'd prefer it not to pull back too far. I could change these percentages to 48% and 73% and it wouldn't make a bit of difference.

Anyway - on the ES - if an initial move down has been 4 points & you mark off the common fib levels - you'd be marking off 5 levels in a 16 tick range. You'd have a reason to do something everywhere.

I am not looking for numbers that occur in nature and snail shells etc. Just that a pullback of 50%-70% is quite a nice area to get in.

The only relationship to fibs is I use a fib drawing tool customised with all the fib levels removed and the 50 % 70% added in
 

DionysusToast

Legendary member
5,963 1,501
I have been waiting for someone to comment on the exit & stop strategies here. Not just on mine but on all the posted trades.

Are people mostly interested in the entry and think that what you do once you are in the trade is less important ? You know - scaling in, scaling out, analysis once in a trade, set & forget etc?

Nic - I noticed just all in/all out on your crude change - any reason for the scale out on the Forex trade?
 

Sharky

Admin
5,641 433
Great to see both entrants still in the contest having posted their second trades.

Voting will remain open until 6:00pm GMT today. At which time the winner will be announced based on the total number of votes. If it's a tie again then the T2W Judges will pick the winner. The prize.. an Amazon Kindle 3G and $100 of trading books!

The two new trades are...

- elitejets (Post #350 - AUD/USD) - 16 RECOMMENDATIONS

- DionysusToast (Posts #342, #343, #346 - S&P E-Mini Futures) - 8 RECOMMENDATIONS

To vote, simply click on the links above and press the button that looks like
reputation.gif
on the post you think should win!

For DionysusToast, because his trade is split over three posts, please vote on his exit post #346. (But if someone forgets don't worry we'll aggregate all three)

Don't forget you're not voting on the best trade but the one most clearly explained (breaking the trade down into it's components and explaining the rationale behind the thought process).

Get Voting! :clover:
 

elitejets

Established member
943 435
I have been waiting for someone to comment on the exit & stop strategies here. Not just on mine but on all the posted trades.

Are people mostly interested in the entry and think that what you do once you are in the trade is less important ? You know - scaling in, scaling out, analysis once in a trade, set & forget etc?

Nic - I noticed just all in/all out on your crude change - any reason for the scale out on the Forex trade?

I hold all trades until they reach 3x my risk usually and then I take half off at that point and then the next point I take 1/4 off and final target the last 1/4. On a big swing I will add positions and I exit them the same way.
I am less likely to hold crude overnight and not likely to at the moment with the unrest in the Middle East/North Africa and talk of a possible blocking of the Suez. Also I already had a crude position which is why I closed it all at 3R.
 

Sharky

Admin
5,641 433
After nearly a week long contest, we have a WINNER!

Congratulations elitejets!!! :clap:

The prize of a Amazon Kindle 3G and $100 of trading books will be winging its way over to you shortly!

Special mention to DionysusToast, who came a close second with two exceptionally good entries.

The final scores from this second round were:

- elitejets (Post #350 - AUD/USD) - 18 RECOMMENDATIONS

- DionysusToast (Posts #342, #343, #346 - S&P E-Mini Futures) - 16 RECOMMENDATIONS

That just leaves me to thank everyone that took part in our 10 Year Anniversary celebrations.

We hope the week of contests and prize was just as much fun for you, as it was for us. I think we'd all agree that T2W needs more contests like these and that's something we're definitely planning on doing this year.
 

elitejets

Established member
943 435
Wow, thanks :)
Dionysus Toast posted a great trade and was very tough competition. Shame there weren't two.
 

redart

Established member
890 248
BTW - I will be posting more stuff like that in the future - I just need to get over that 'nerves' thing that struck me. This was quite a revelation.

Interesting, isn't it!?
Me and a few others have posted lots of realtime trades in the forex thread - I used to get more nervous posting a live trade than I was about losing my money, lol.
Good day on the ES yesterday for you? I managed one decent trade.
I look forward to more ES trades from you.
 

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DashRiprock

Experienced member
1,650 482
I had best day of the year so far today so I thought id show the graphs :)rolleyes:) for everyone.

smaller graph is from treasury bond future, bigger one is treasury note (thats what im trading). if you look at the red circles on each graph you see that just 5 mins after the data today the bond was just around yesterdays low and the note was around yesterdays high volume area

this is good for me because i like to see notes and bonds doing same thing

i said in my forst trade waaaaaay back in the thread that i like to watch these times for chop and new trends. and look at the notes (bigger graph) from then it was up and up and up all day until yesterdays high which was a bit of chop and a lot of volume traded there and then up and up and up some more until the last new daily high where have more chop and more volumes!

i put the lines is so everyone can see easier what i mean.

if you have nice skills in reading the tape and looking for big traders and big orders and skills in looking at what IS happenening (its going UP so BUY ONLY) and not what WAS happening you can make good profits with strategies like these. even enough to buy a kindle LOL :)
 

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