My use of fibs and the extensions is related to harmonic patterns and gartley patterns / wolfe waves, etc and probably way too out there for most readers. Gartley wrote his book in 1934 and at the time it cost the equivalent of a couple of luxury cars. Today you can learn them if you are just willing to do the study. The last guy that started a thread on fibs and harmonic patterns got a bit of a drubbing and so I am a bit wary of going into the mystical juju aspect of it.
I mainly use support and resistance like a lot of the people here but there are times when price is in uncharted territory or you want to know which level price will go to and I find fibs helps me add weight to that.
I've seen some of your more fractal voodoo stuff. You should thread it, it's quite interesting. I doubt you will get flamed as much as you have a good rep. Also I'm sure you could persuade barjon and that to keep an eye
well it does say that we can upload avi's up to a max size of 57.22 MB, i tried this ages ago and failed to get anything uploaded at all. i'd recommend uploading to jing or youtube, then just post the link.
Well done, superb video: eloquent, clear and measured. I could listen to you all day! If you haven't already, bung it on YouTube and you are assured a cult following.
One issue that I hope you might clarify is your use of fibs. I've been struck by just how many of the entrants to this comp' use fibs. Even DT (much to my surprise) said he used them. Can you expand on why you use them and why you have faith in them? To my way of thinking, this is the only 'hole' in an otherwise excellent explanation of your trade.
I don't use fibs. I just mark off 50% and 70% of a move because that's generally where I'll be looking for a pullback to end. If you look at the image you can see 50 & 70 - it's not clear at it's white on grey but it's just those two points market out. I like it to pullback more than half way. I'd prefer it not to pull back too far. I could change these percentages to 48% and 73% and it wouldn't make a bit of difference.
Anyway - on the ES - if an initial move down has been 4 points & you mark off the common fib levels - you'd be marking off 5 levels in a 16 tick range. You'd have a reason to do something everywhere.
I am not looking for numbers that occur in nature and snail shells etc. Just that a pullback of 50%-70% is quite a nice area to get in.
The only relationship to fibs is I use a fib drawing tool customised with all the fib levels removed and the 50 % 70% added in
Great to see both entrants still in the contest having posted their second trades.
Voting will remain open until 6:00pm GMT today. At which time the winner will be announced based on the total number of votes. If it's a tie again then the T2W Judges will pick the winner. The prize.. an Amazon Kindle 3G and $100 of trading books!
I hold all trades until they reach 3x my risk usually and then I take half off at that point and then the next point I take 1/4 off and final target the last 1/4. On a big swing I will add positions and I exit them the same way.
I am less likely to hold crude overnight and not likely to at the moment with the unrest in the Middle East/North Africa and talk of a possible blocking of the Suez. Also I already had a crude position which is why I closed it all at 3R.
That just leaves me to thank everyone that took part in our 10 Year Anniversary celebrations.
We hope the week of contests and prize was just as much fun for you, as it was for us. I think we'd all agree that T2W needs more contests like these and that's something we're definitely planning on doing this year.
Interesting, isn't it!?
Me and a few others have posted lots of realtime trades in the forex thread - I used to get more nervous posting a live trade than I was about losing my money, lol.
Good day on the ES yesterday for you? I managed one decent trade.
I look forward to more ES trades from you.
I had best day of the year so far today so I thought id show the graphs rolleyes for everyone.
smaller graph is from treasury bond future, bigger one is treasury note (thats what im trading). if you look at the red circles on each graph you see that just 5 mins after the data today the bond was just around yesterdays low and the note was around yesterdays high volume area
this is good for me because i like to see notes and bonds doing same thing
i said in my forst trade waaaaaay back in the thread that i like to watch these times for chop and new trends. and look at the notes (bigger graph) from then it was up and up and up all day until yesterdays high which was a bit of chop and a lot of volume traded there and then up and up and up some more until the last new daily high where have more chop and more volumes!
i put the lines is so everyone can see easier what i mean.
if you have nice skills in reading the tape and looking for big traders and big orders and skills in looking at what IS happenening (its going UP so BUY ONLY) and not what WAS happening you can make good profits with strategies like these. even enough to buy a kindle LOL
This thread is a duplicate of the original and has then been culled severely to enable members to focus on the wheat without having to wade through all the chaff. For anyone wanting to view the unedited thread in all its glory and/or post further comment, please do so on the original: Trade2Win's 10 Year Anniversary - Day 5 (Anatomy of a Trade)