The 3 Duck's Trading System

Captain Currency

Established member
827 121
3 Ducks | Fri 13th Jan

Howdy Duck Hunters,

If you're superstitious you're probably not trading today with it been Friday the 13th, unlucky for some!

Having a gander at EURUSD it does look like our first Duck favours buying set-ups only, price (circled) is currently trading above the sma on the 4hr chart.



Would I be diving in to buy EURUSD? No, probably not. I'd reckon price will head lower in the coming sessions and this would push price below the sma on the 1 hour chart (2nd Duck). In a case like this, our 2nd Duck would not be confirming, price would be on the bearish (wrong) side of the 1 hour sma.



Funny thing about it is, a pullback would probably be good for the bulls at this stage. A drop in price might give them a rest, a chance to re-group and a better level to go long at again next week.

To wrap it up, for now I wouldn't do anything with the EURUSD but any pullbacks might offer a decent RvR opportunity to go long next week on this pair if/when all 3 Ducks line-up in the same direction.

Have a super weekend,

Andy
Captain Currency
 

Pipstream

Junior member
21 4
I am new to this forum and just found this thread here. But I have been using this method (which I came across elsewhere) as a base template underlying my own strategy for some time and find it very effective.

For example, one brief trade on EU this morning, not much but still green pips! :)

This is the 5m chart and for clarity I have removed my own method "lines". The red dotted line is the 60 SMA and the green and brown are the equivalent to the 1H and 3H SMA's (Note: I only use 3H instead of 4H because the 3H forms the higher TF in my own method, not because I think it is any better than the 4H for this method).

I like this method because it is discretionary and its entry and exit levels can be moulded to suit one's own requirements and thereby it forms an excellent base for use either as it stands or as a foundation on which other strategies can be overlaid.
 

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iandh2010

Member
53 4
Hi,
Downloaded Capt'ns 3 Ducks booklet and following along with it as I use a similar approach to trading LSE shares using 3 SMAs. That's where the similarity ends though.

Just getting into FX and was looking for a strategy that I was happy with and when I came across the 3 Ducks, it looked sound to me!

Anyway can someone please confirm whether the 3rd Duck (on M5 charts) has to cross the 60SMA and take out the previous high all in the one move, i.e. on a long trade cross above the 60SMA and also how far back are we looking for the previous high? I assume no further than 4 hours.
 
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Captain Currency

Established member
827 121
... can someone please confirm whether the 3rd Duck (on M5 charts) has to cross the 60SMA and take out the previous high all in the one move, i.e. on a long trade cross above the 60SMA
Howdy Iandh, I'm not 100% sure what you mean by "all in the one move".

Maybe have another gander at page 7 in the 3 Ducks eBook, see the charts on that page, bet they might help answer your questions.

Andy
Captain Currency
 

iandh2010

Member
53 4
Hi Andy,
Yes this is the page that I have been studying and trying to understand why I don't find any moves that kick off and then trend, so I was just wondering whether there was something that I was missing.

I have tried making sure that I wait for the price to break a previous high (like first chart on page 7). What I hadn't spotted was that the second chart was the same as the first just with later price action as well....doh!

I keep getting stopped out pretty soon after getting into a dummy trade, I guess its all about timing and sizing the stops but most bars on M5 charts are so small that spreads & commissions swamp any profits, so need a good run on a trending pair.

I guess I need to analyse my results a bit more, over a few hours to see what actually happened over a longer period and see whether, if I widened the stops, this would help.

What size moves do you typically see the most of and make you money?

Also could you please confirm how many 5 minute bars you check back over to find a previous high. As I said, I assume its no further than 48 x M5 bars as the long Duck-1 SMA is on H4 charts.

Thanks
Ian
 

Captain Currency

Established member
827 121
... how many 5 minute bars you check back over to find a previous high.
I hear ya Ian but not a question I could give you an exact answer to.

It wouldn't be that "scientific" ie counting back the number of candles, I'd simply just eyeball the 5 min chart (working from right to left) and scribble in the first one or two valid levels/highs that would get our 3rd Duck lining-up.

Having another butchers at page 7 of the eBook might help you out Ian, ultimately entry levels will be at your own discretion. you could go searching as far back (or near) on the 5 min chart as you wanted for a valid entry level.

Andy
Captain Currency
 

csc2009

Established member
633 17
Howdy Duck Hunters,

If you're superstitious you're probably not trading today with it been Friday the 13th, unlucky for some!

Having a gander at EURUSD it does look like our first Duck favours buying set-ups only, price (circled) is currently trading above the sma on the 4hr chart.



Would I be diving in to buy EURUSD? No, probably not. I'd reckon price will head lower in the coming sessions and this would push price below the sma on the 1 hour chart (2nd Duck). In a case like this, our 2nd Duck would not be confirming, price would be on the bearish (wrong) side of the 1 hour sma.



Funny thing about it is, a pullback would probably be good for the bulls at this stage. A drop in price might give them a rest, a chance to re-group and a better level to go long at again next week.

To wrap it up, for now I wouldn't do anything with the EURUSD but any pullbacks might offer a decent RvR opportunity to go long next week on this pair if/when all 3 Ducks line-up in the same direction.

Have a super weekend,

Andy
Captain Currency
Thanks Captain, I'm keeping close eyes on the set up of Eur/Usd.
 

Captain Currency

Established member
827 121
3 Ducks | May 8th 2017

Howdy Duck Hunters,

Just wondering if that pullback is over? Wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the Usd.Cad take another run north, taking a swipe at that resistance area 1.3792 (highlighted) in the coming days/week.

Usd.Cad is currently trading at around 1.3670, 2nd Ducks on the 1 hour chart is not confirming (price on wrong side of sma). Could be an interesting pair to keep on your shortlist for the next few sessions, see if our Ducks oblige and line-up for a buy.

Andy
Captain Currency
 

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acharyadas

Junior member
10 1
Howdy Duck Hunters,

Just wondering if that pullback is over? Wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the Usd.Cad take another run north, taking a swipe at that resistance area 1.3792 (highlighted) in the coming days/week.

Usd.Cad is currently trading at around 1.3670, 2nd Ducks on the 1 hour chart is not confirming (price on wrong side of sma). Could be an interesting pair to keep on your shortlist for the next few sessions, see if our Ducks oblige and line-up for a buy.

Andy
Captain Currency
Thank you for the great system! What about correlations? If USDJPY and EURJPY and GBPJPY are giving signal to buy. Do you buy all of them or just one?
 

Captain Currency

Established member
827 121
... What about correlations? If USDJPY and EURJPY and GBPJPY are giving signal to buy. Do you buy all of them or just one?


Naw, wouldn't fancy buying all 3 pairs, instead maybe look to trade the strongest currency against the weakest currency.

Let me try and confuse you Acharyadas ... From the start it looks like we have a weak Yen if you're seeing buy signals on Usd.Jpy, Eur.Jpy and Gbp.Jpy. No prizes for guessing JPY is the weakest currency out of the 4 mentioned currencies ( JPY, USD, EUR, GBP).

Out of the 3 remaining currencies (USD, EUR, GBP) can you figure-out (take an educated guess) which one is the strongest currency?

If you believe USD is currently stronger than the EUR and GBP then you might fancy trading the weakest currency (JPY) against the strongest currency (USD) or in other words ... buying Usd.Jpy

...Thank you for the great system!
You're very welcome, hope you got the eBook.

Andy
Captain Currency
 

acharyadas

Junior member
10 1


Naw, wouldn't fancy buying all 3 pairs, instead maybe look to trade the strongest currency against the weakest currency.

Let me try and confuse you Acharyadas ... From the start it looks like we have a weak Yen if you're seeing buy signals on Usd.Jpy, Eur.Jpy and Gbp.Jpy. No prizes for guessing JPY is the weakest currency out of the 4 mentioned currencies ( JPY, USD, EUR, GBP).

Out of the 3 remaining currencies (USD, EUR, GBP) can you figure-out (take an educated guess) which one is the strongest currency?

If you believe USD is currently stronger than the EUR and GBP then you might fancy trading the weakest currency (JPY) against the strongest currency (USD) or in other words ... buying Usd.Jpy


You're very welcome, hope you got the eBook.

Andy
Captain Currency
Great stuff, but how do you know what is the weakest or strongest currency? Futures charts? H1 time frame? http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=h1 From the futures charts is seems USD and NZD are strong today and JPY is weak.

There are also currency strength indicators which are telling the same story:

http://i.imgur.com/bgovMBF.png

4h strength give clearer picture:

http://i.imgur.com/Oa80koX.png

For example AUD CAD on 3.5. had the biggest trend, since both currencies hit their top and bottom in the same time in the midnight. Price went under sma60 on h4 20 hours later.

Or slope of sma 60 on h4 or h1?

For example today I had best results on shorting EUR CAD, because strength of the currencies on 4h is going opposite ways.
 
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