Quantt’s betting journal

Nowler

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Sep 13, 2017
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#16
LOL, same here! I really think they should have ended this show few seasons ago, as my wife said, maybe when they reached CDC would have been a good ending for example...
Yes.
They have been dragging it out far too much!
I know there's money to be made in shows/movies/plays but when they lose sight of it being a performance or a piece of art, it's sad...and boring...a crying shame.

I think they should play this season out as they plan to but then increase the spending and go out next season with a bang! Kill everyone if they want but make it a decisive season!

Just going to throw it out there... Hannibal... amazing show but got cancelled because of it being a small cult following.
They knew it was being cancelled, so the show ends great! Not just a sudden stop
 

Quantt

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Jul 23, 2017
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#17
Yes.
They have been dragging it out far too much!
I know there's money to be made in shows/movies/plays but when they lose sight of it being a performance or a piece of art, it's sad...and boring...a crying shame.

I think they should play this season out as they plan to but then increase the spending and go out next season with a bang! Kill everyone if they want but make it a decisive season!

Just going to throw it out there... Hannibal... amazing show but got cancelled because of it being a small cult following.
They knew it was being cancelled, so the show ends great! Not just a sudden stop
I have to check Hannibal... One show I liked was Stargate Universe, got canceled after only 2 seasons ( I think due to to financial crisis), but I think it really had the potential to go for a lot more like the other two in the franchise...

Speaking about shows, I am going to the movies tonight to see the new Star Wars and I really really hope they didn't screw this one also...
 

Quantt

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Jul 23, 2017
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#18
OK, I lost 1R last night, the Star Wars movie was a bit cheesy, but better than the previous one... JJ Abrams has to go, he just can't get it... Will post my picks for tonight in a bit...
 

Quantt

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Jul 23, 2017
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#19
Bets for 20171216 (R3.18)

Columbus to win against Carolina odds 2.20
Tampa to win against Colorado odds 1.90
 

Quantt

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Jul 23, 2017
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#20
I lost again, so while a bit ahead and since there is only one game worth betting with this strategy for tonight (vgk beat fla ) and I need at least 2 to bring the R over 2, I am going to exercise my right as a discretionary better to pivot and eyeball another strategy on the fly :)
I am looking for over / under instead and will browse the results from he beginning of the year to get a feeling on how to bet :)
 

Quantt

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Jul 23, 2017
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#21
OK here is my pivot and predictions for today 20171217

The following 2 games will finish with more than 4.5 total number of goals in the mach for 0.75R which I probably wouldn't take if I was trading systematic, but since I am still discretionary will take the gamble (pun intended :)

St Louis vs Winnipeg - odds 1.35
Florida vs Vegas baby - odds 1.30
 
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DT

Active member
Sep 17, 2003
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London
#22
I am looking for an easy way to identify winners and losers... I don’t want to turn this into another job spending my time doing constant research...
successful betting is rarely about picking winners it is about finding value

for example, supposing in a horse race there is a favourite the bookies have priced at
say 3/2 and your model predicts the chance that horse wins is 0.5

you and the bookies agree it is the favourite to win but you'd lose in the long run if you made bets like this

If the whole thing works this year, maybe I’ll start to look into getting back data and try to quantify a more robust automated strategy that can be back tested easily with different variables, apply proper Kelly and so on...
that's were you should be starting from IMO

This is my attempt of a discretionary trading via NHL sports betting with same concepts of risk/reward and to put in use a knowledge that I am getting by osmosis from the radio :)
you're not really "trading" per say - usually people who describe themselves as trading in the context of sports betting are opening and closing positions prior to the event taking place - the actual result of the event meaning little to them, they just 'trade' the movement in prices prior to the event - they generally use betting exchanges

The odds where actually better by 1R last night, so maybe I have to bet one day in advance
perhaps... though depending on the bookie this is where you can get yourself banned quite easily

as per my previous comment before about successful betting not necessarily being about finding winners but about finding value you can quite often find bookies with prices that would give you a positive expected value bet... bookies have to cover a whole load of events and will continually adjust prices as and when more information and bets come in. Some venues attract sharp punters (betting exchanges and bookies such as pinnacle.com/) - if you find a better price at a bookie that is significantly different from the prices at an exchange or at pinnacle then, without even needing to have created your own handicapping system/model, it would be quite likely that that price is offering you value. The problem is that even the square bookies will move their prices and if they spot a punter who has constantly picked them off when they've posted bad lines then they'll quite quickly ban you or severely limit your account to rather comical amounts. (they are paranoid about arbitragers and while technically you could simply arb them at an exchange when they post bad lines you're better off in the long run not hedging).


You mention you're betting against the government? Is there some monopoly on sports betting over there? If so I'd be a bit cautious - it is unlikely that a state owned bookie with a monopoly is going to offer you decent prices. I'd explore betting at offshore sites etc..
 

Quantt

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Jul 23, 2017
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#23
You mention you're betting against the government? Is there some monopoly on sports betting over there? If so I'd be a bit cautious - it is unlikely that a state owned bookie with a monopoly is going to offer you decent prices. I'd explore betting at offshore sites etc..
Hi DT and thanks for getting the time to give very good points and advises...

For me personally, (I don't actually like to gamble), this is meant for a distraction from the terrible season my team is having and I am actually making money by not going to the games and spending hundreds of dollars on overpriced tickets and beer...

To answer your question, yes, the gambling, the liquor (and soon, July 1st the recreational marijuana) are exclusively sold by the government (with few exceptions in the Indian reserves for example)
 

Quantt

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Jul 23, 2017
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#24
Bets for 2017128 (R2.31)

New Jersey to win at Anaheim with odds 1.65
San Jose to win at Edmonton with odds 1.95
 

Quantt

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Jul 23, 2017
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#25
A loss last night and the bets for 20171219 (R2.05)

Minnesota to win vs Ottawa with odds 1.85
Boston to win vs Buffalo with odds 1.65
 

Quantt

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Jul 23, 2017
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#26
OK, I made a mistake, somehow I did shift the data with 1 day getting wrong results, so bottom line, I cannot predict who is going to win :)
I have to go back to my second strategy: over/under
So for tonight 20171219 the real pick is that the following 2 games will have more than 4.5 total number of goals in each mach:

Minnesota @ Ottawa
Boston @ Buffalo

the R is only 0.8, so I have to watch if more of the upcoming games are with such a low odds, I'll have to abandon this one as well...
 

Nowler

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Sep 13, 2017
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#27
You watch Darts?
The World Darts Championship is on at the moment. Maybe you could base a system on that?

I like just straight up watching, getting a feel for form and betting on first 180, next 180, and also over/under 180's. I got some rhythm last year, so looking forward to round 2 (when I really start to watch).
 

Quantt

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Jul 23, 2017
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#28
Code:
You watch Darts?
The World Darts Championship is on at the moment. Maybe you could base a system on that?

I like just straight up watching, getting a feel for form and betting on first 180, next 180, and also over/under 180's. I got some rhythm last year, so looking forward to round 2 (when I really start to watch).
I have no idea about the rules and I don’t mind throwing a few in a bar, but I rather watch paint dry :)
 

brewski1984

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2010
2,027
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#29
You watch Darts?
The World Darts Championship is on at the moment. Maybe you could base a system on that?

I like just straight up watching, getting a feel for form and betting on first 180, next 180, and also over/under 180's. I got some rhythm last year, so looking forward to round 2 (when I really start to watch).
I'm cheering on Keegan Brown great result for him the other day, he lives on the Isle of Wight same as me (y)

Code:
I have no idea about the rules and I don’t mind throwing a few in a bar, but I rather watch paint dry :)
You're right, I love playing the game but watching it is actually quite boring!
 

Nowler

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Sep 13, 2017
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#30
Yeah I understand. I get pretty bored watch a lot of it.

Keegan Brown... That's the guy in the pink shirt who beat Wade the other day? A few names gone out already...Odds potential is higher.

I bet there'll be a 9 darter this year ;)