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Stan NorFX

Well-known member
281 1
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Tesla and SpaceX owner Elon Musk received a video allegedly from the Anonymous hacker group. It says that his tweets regarding cryptocurrency ruined the lives of ordinary working people, their dreams collapsed due to Musk's public tantrums.
The man in the video, in the group's familiar Guy Fawkes mask, changed his voice and called the billionaire a Bond villain who pretends to be a visionary, but in fact is a narcissistic rich man desperately in need of attention.
The video indicates that Musk abandoned bitcoin only because he feared Tesla would lose subsidies from the state. And the hackers called Musk's recent initiative to create a Council of Bitcoin Miners an attempt to take control of the industry.
The video, which has already garnered about 2 million views, ends with a challenge: “You consider yourself the smartest, but this time you will play against an equal opponent. We are Anonymous! We are legion! Wait for us".

- Goldman Sachs bank experts have downgraded the "rating" of bitcoin from "gold" to "copper". According to them, it is still difficult to put the main coin on a par with gold, since it does not have such a powerful support as this precious metal. Commodities expert Jeff Curry explained that the volatility of the main coin is very similar in nature to the price swings of copper in the global market.
Previously, a similar point of view was voiced by JPMorgan experts. According to them, the main cryptocurrency is a cyclical commodity, and therefore cannot compete with precious metals or fiat. Investment companies are well aware of this, which is why they have portfolios that only consist of a few percent of bitcoin and other digital assets.

- The opposite point of view to bankers was expressed by the CEO of the crypto exchange Gemini and bitcoin billionaire Tyler Winklevoss. He believes that bitcoin is still in its early stages of development. “Bitcoin is Gold 2.0,” Winklevoss said, “and its market cap should be over $10 trillion, just like gold. It is currently at the level of $1 trillion, that is, growth may be at least 10 times more. "
In his opinion, even a rate of about $35,000 is an excellent opportunity to enter a long-term investment. With a capitalization of $10 trillion, 1 BTC will be worth $500,000, and this may happen within the current decade, or maybe within the next 5 years.
“We will hodl to at least $500,000, and even then, we will not have to sell the asset, because it can be lent, used as collateral, etc.,” the billionaire added. And then he flew into space in his fantasies, claiming that bitcoin could be used for transactions between planets in the future: “Bitcoin is a project that continues to evolve and can achieve much more. It could become the global reserve digital currency of the world or even several planets when we get to Mars. "

- The MIT students who participated in the bitcoin research spent the cryptocurrency they had been given on textbooks and food. As Bloomberg calculated, they missed ... 13,000% of their profits.
In 2014, Bitcoin Core developer Jeremy Rubin and Nascent co-founder Dan Elitzer, while students at the university, launched the MIT Bitcoin Project. Each project participant received $100 in the first cryptocurrency (0.3 BTC at the exchange rate at that time) in order to create an ecosystem of digital currencies on campus.
More than 3,100 students joined the study. Every tenth student got rid of cryptocurrency in the first two weeks, and by mid-2017, every fourth student had converted it to fiat and used it for purchases and other expenses. The participants in the experiment spent digital gold mainly in the campus bookstore. They also bought beer and ordered food.
The rest kept the coins in their wallets, expecting further growth in their value. One of the project participants said that she wanted to spend bitcoins on a T-shirt that cost $35, but abandoned her idea, and did the right thing: the price of these coins exceeds $4,000 now.

- Billionaire Mark Lasry, founder of Avenue Capital Management, said bitcoin's explosive growth in 2021 has exceeded his expectations. He also expressed regret that he had not invested enough in the first cryptocurrency.
Commenting on his previous forecast regarding the rise in the price of the coin to $40,000, the investor noted that the cryptocurrency market has already formed, and nothing threatens it. “If a market is created, it does not disappear anywhere. For this reason, I became interested in bitcoin. I thought that with the arrival of institutional investors, the price would start to rise,” he added.
At the same time, Lasry stressed that any movement of digital gold can be explained: “To be honest, I do not know where bitcoin is going. I can justify why it will rise to $100,000, but I can also justify why it will fall to $20,000."

- Analytical software provider MicroStrategy Inc. announced a $400 million convertible bond offering maturing in 2028. Accredited investors will become buyers of securities. The company will use the funds raised from the placement to buy bitcoins.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy currently owns 92,079 BTC worth over $3.37 billion so far.

- Against the background of the market correction, bitcoin whales have increased their positions, and large Ethereum wallets continue to hold assets. Analysts of Santiment came to such conclusions.
According to the company, the number of bitcoin addresses with balances from 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC has been growing steadily for two and a half weeks. “It seems that whales are buying confidently on the fall,” the experts concluded.
As for the addresses holding 1,000-100,000 ETH, their number practically does not change during the period when the asset fluctuates in the range of $2,000- $2,500. “This group of investors is still holding on to the huge number of tokens that they have been accumulating at a rapid pace since last October,” the experts note.
The NVT indicator (a tool for identifying bubbles in the cryptocurrency market) indicates the continued bearish sentiment for the first cryptocurrency. The NVT confirms investor bearish sentiment for Ethereum as well, for the first time since April 2020.

- The American company Progressive Care began accepting bitcoin as payment for rapid tests for COVID-19. The service is available in PharmcoRx pharmacies, and one can pay for tests through a QR code.
The company stressed that they believe in the future of the blockchain and want to provide an opportunity for testing for coronavirus "to those who have an alternative view of payment systems."

- The Kalashnikov Concern, which produces the well-known AK-47 machine, would like to abandon the international payment system SWIFT and switch to using digital currencies. Such an unexpected statement was made by a rock singer, former Deputy Minister of Transport of Russia, and now the owner of the concern, Alan Lushnikov. “We really need it,” he said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF)
According to him, this alternative system is not tied to SWIFT and is not controlled by banks. For this reason, the company is less interested in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).


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Stan NorFX

Well-known member
281 1
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 14 - 18, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The key day last week was Thursday, June 10. There were two important events on the day: the European Central Bank meeting and the release of US consumer market data. Now let's talk about everything in order.
The ECB raised its forecasts for Eurozone GDP from 4.0% to 4.6% for 2021 and from 4.1% to 4.7% for 2022. Inflation is expected to rise by 1.9% this year and 1.5% next year (the previous forecast was 1.5% and 1.2% respectively). At the same time, the pace of economic recovery has not particularly impressed Ms. Lagarde, especially as it is lagging seriously behind the US. The ECB chief also considers the jump in inflation a temporary phenomenon. While prices may continue to rise in 2021 Q3 and Q4, they should go down as the “temporary factors disappear.” So, the overall inflation rate in the Eurozone, she believes, will remain below target “throughout the forecast horizon.”
As a result, the result of the ECB meeting was... no result. Despite the debate, the Bank's Governing Board has not made any decisions regarding the winding down of QE, leaving the current stimulus measures in place. The interest rate on the euro was also unchanged, at 0%. But it was because of such passivity that Ms. Lagarde succeeded in achieving what she wanted: keeping the euro from rising.
And now about the second event on Thursday - the publication of data on the US consumer market (CPI). It was just that, according to the reaction of the market, it resembled the moment when the regulator announced new interest rates. The CPI figures turned out to be much higher than forecasted, showing the fastest rise in consumer prices in the United States in more than 12 years.
Such a rise in inflation could scare investors, however, exactly the opposite happened: the S&P500 index updated another high, reaching 4250 (against 4244 exactly a month ago), and the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to a 3-month low.
As for the EUR/USD pair, this is where the bears won. Their logic was as follows: the ECB postponed the decision to roll back QE in Europe, but in the US, a jump in inflation could push the Fed to take some real steps in this direction. And some goals are likely to be identified at the next meeting of the regulator next Wednesday, June 16. This expectation of tightening monetary policy has driven the dollar higher. Additional strength for the bears was given by the growth of the Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan in the USA, which was published on June 11. As a result, the dollar won back about 100 points from the euro, and the EUR/USD pair finished just below the lower border of the four-week side channel 1.2125-1.2265, at around 1.2108;

- GBP/USD. The statistics from the USA pushing the pair down was mentioned above. As for the UK's performance, it's not all that simple. Data released on Thursday June 10 supported the pound, showing a sharp rise in the Manufacturing PMI, which indicated a strengthening of industrial production and trade in the UK. However, another package of macro-statistics, published the next day, aroused caution among investors.
The center of the British economic recovery has shifted from manufacturing and the housing market to the service sector. Here, thanks to vaccinations and the easing of quarantine measures, activity has increased and even exceeded forecasts. But the figures were not so rosy in other sectors of the economy.
Construction volumes declined by 2%, while industrial production for April fell 1.3%. When compared to the same period in 2020, it added 27.5% during that time. It would seem that the growth is evident. But, according to a number of experts, there is nothing much to be happy about. If we compare the absolute values, they are 3% lower than the levels of February 2020 and 6.5% below the local peak in March 2019. And this speaks of the stagnation of the sector, which, apparently, was provoked not only by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also by Brexit.
These multidirectional statistics resulted in the GBP/USD pair failing to reach beyond the 1.4075-1.4220 side channel, along which it was drifting for the fourth week, and put the last point at 1.4115;

- USD/JPY. Having started the five-day period at 109.50, the pair completed it at 109.70. At the same time, it was below these levels almost all the time, bouncing over and over again from the support in the area of 109.18-109.30. However, thanks to strong statistics from the US, the pair managed to climb to the height of 109.85 at the end of the week. But even taking into account this spurt, the weekly fluctuation range of 45 points looks more than modest;

- cryptocurrencies. The crypto market is calm. Bitcoin has been consolidating around $36,000-37,000 for the third week in a row. An attempt by the bears on to turn quotes downward June 8 ended in failure: the lowest point they managed to reach was $31.065. Having stayed there for only a few minutes, the BTC/USD pair turned around, climbed to $38.325, and then went back to the consolidation area.
Elon Musk is back in the news of the week, which could somehow influence the market sentiment. The owner of Tesla and SpaceX received a video allegedly from the Anonymous hacker group. It states that his tweets regarding cryptocurrency ruined the lives of ordinary working people, and their dreams were shattered by Musk's public tantrums.
The man in the video, in the group's familiar Guy Fawkes mask, changed his voice and called the billionaire a Bond villain who pretends to be a visionary, but in fact is a narcissistic rich man desperately in need of attention. The video indicates that Musk abandoned bitcoin only because he feared Tesla would lose subsidies from the state. And the hackers called Musk's recent initiative to create a Council of Bitcoin Miners an attempt to take control of the industry.
The video, which has already garnered about 2 million views, ends with a challenge: “You consider yourself the smartest, but this time you will play against an equal opponent. We are Anonymous! We are legion! Wait for us".
Another newsmaker, analytical software provider MicroStrategy Inc. announced a $400 million convertible bond offering maturing in 2028. The company will use the funds raised from the placement to buy bitcoins.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy currently owns 92,079 BTC worth more than $3.37 billion.. And if you study the history of its crypto assets’ replenishment, it becomes obvious that the company is moving towards averaging its position in the market. And this happens due to borrowed funds.
Averaging is considered a rather risky investment method. For those who don't know, we'll explain in a simple example. Averaging is when you buy 3 BTC: the first one for $5,000, then you buy the second one for $20,000, and the third one for $35,000. The average price of 1 coin in this case will be equal to $20,000 ($ 60,000/3). And if quotes fall below this level, you will be at a loss. This is why some experts believe MicroStrategy has embarked on a "journey on thin ice."
At the time of writing the forecast, the BTC/USD pair is in the $37,000 zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, as well as the coin itself, demonstrates "consolidation": it was equal to 21 points on May 28, 27 on June 04, and again 21 points on June 11, which corresponds to the average Fear indicator.
Among the 10,332 existing cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, despite its decline in its share in the total crypto market capitalization, still leads by a huge margin. Its dominance index is 44.03% at the moment. The capitalization of the entire digital currency market fell from $1.663 trillion to $1.585 trillion over the week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned above, the Governing Council of the ECB has not made any decision regarding the winding down of the quantitative (QE) program. But the Fed can discuss this issue at its meeting on Wednesday, June 16, and, as a result, publish a "road map". If not publish a detailed road map, then at least indicate its certain stages. And if this happens, we can expect a rapid rise in the dollar and a decline in the EUR/USD pair to the level of 1.2000. The next support is 1.1945, then the zone 1.1880-1.1900.
If the Fed gets off with general phrases that the rise in inflation and the current improvement in the US labor market are not at all a reason for tightening economic policy again, then the pair may return to the upper border of the 1.2125-1.2265 channel. The next target for the bulls is the growth of the pair to this year's high of 1.2350.
So, all the market's attention is now focused on this event. And analysts avoid any predictions until it's over. Graphical analysis is in disarray as well. Among the trend indicators, 55% are colored red on D1, and 100% on H4. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. Here, 60% of them are looking down on both time frames, 20% have taken a neutral position, and the remaining 20% are signaling that the pair is oversold.
In addition to the Fed meeting and comments on June 16, other events of the week include the release of statistics on the German consumer market and on retail sales in the United States. Both numbers will be released on Tuesday June 15;

- GBP/USD. The Bank of England now faces a difficult choice of which way to go further: to support economic growth by continuing fiscal stimulus programs, or to start fighting inflation and prices that have already exceeded pre-Covid levels.
If you look at the ECB and the Fed, they have preferred the first option so far, postponing the second one for later. The renewed trend towards the stagnation of the UK manufacturing sector indicates that the Bank of England should follow the example of its colleagues. Especially since the country's coronavirus curve has moved up sharply again, and there is increasing discussion about moving the full abolition of the quarantine restrictions scheduled for June 21.
If this happens, the pound will be under strong pressure. However, there will be June 16 before June 21, when the Fed meeting will take place - the key event of the week for almost all dollar pairs. As in the case of EUR/USD, expert opinions are now almost impossible to be brought to any common denominator. Graphical analysis also indicates the continuation of the pair's sideways movement in the coming days within the range of 1.4075-1.4220. Oscillators on both timeframes give multidirectional signals, although the red ones have a slight advantage here. The trend indicators on D1 are split evenly: 50% pointing north, 50% pointing south. And it is only among the trend indicators on H4 that there is an overwhelming majority: 85% of them are colored red.
The targets of the bears: 1.4075, 1.4000, then the low in the 1.3900-1.3925 zone. The bulls' targets: 1.4185-1.4225 and 1.4250, having reached which, they will then try to break through the resistance of 1.4300 and refresh the 2018 highs.
Among the important events of the coming week: the release of UK labour market statistics and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Tuesday June 15, as well as data on the country's consumer market on Wednesday June 16;

- USD/JPY. Giving a weekly forecast, the majority of experts (60%) vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the zone of 110.00-110.30. Graphical analysis and 65% of oscillators on H4, as well as 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with them.

The remaining 40% of analysts, along with graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to decline to support at 108.00-108.35. The next strong support is at 107.50.
When switching to the monthly forecast, the picture changes in a mirror-like manner: here it is already 60% that side with the bears. 40% remain on the side of the bulls, with only half of them believing that the pair will be able to rise above 111.00 and renew the March 31 high.
As for the events of the next week, one could note the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate and the subsequent press conference. However, the likelihood that the bank's monetary policy will undergo changes that could seriously affect market sentiment is close to zero;
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- cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs experts have downgraded bitcoin's rating from gold to copper. According to them, it is still difficult to put the main coin on a par with gold, since it does not have such a powerful support as this precious metal. Commodities expert Jeff Curry explained that the volatility of the main coin is very similar in nature to the price swings of copper in the global market.
Previously, a similar point of view was voiced by JPMorgan experts. According to them, the main cryptocurrency is a cyclical commodity, and therefore cannot compete with precious metals or fiat. Investment companies are well aware of this, which is why they have portfolios that only consist of a few percent of bitcoin and other digital assets.
The opposite point of view to bankers was expressed by the CEO of the crypto exchange Gemini and bitcoin billionaire Tyler Winklevoss. He believes that bitcoin is still in its early stages of development. “Bitcoin is Gold 2.0,” Winklevoss said, “and its market cap should be over $10 trillion, just like gold. It is currently at the level of $1 trillion, that is, growth may be at least 10 times more. "
In his opinion, even a rate of about $35,000 is an excellent opportunity to enter a long-term investment. With a capitalization of $10 trillion, 1 BTC will be worth $500,000, and this may happen within the current decade, or maybe within the next 5 years.
“We will hodl to at least $500,000, and even then, we will not have to sell the asset, because it can be lent, used as collateral, etc.,” the billionaire added. And then he flew into space in his fantasies, claiming that bitcoin could be used for transactions between planets in the future: “Bitcoin is a project that continues to evolve and can achieve much more. It could become the global reserve digital currency of the world or even several planets when we get to Mars."
The forecast (or rather, its absence) by another billionaire, the founder of Avenue Capital Management Mark Lasry, seems to be much more mundane. According to him, the cryptocurrency market has already formed, and nothing threatens it, and the rapid growth of bitcoin in 2021 has exceeded his expectations. That being said, “to be honest, I don't know where bitcoin is heading,” Larsy admitted. "I can justify why it will rise to $100,000, but I can also justify why it will fall to $20,000."
And it is difficult to argue with him about this. At least in the current situation, any movement of digital gold can be justified. Suffice it to recall two authoritative predictions:
: of the American company Fundstrat analysts, according to which, despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future,
- and of the JPMorgan financial holding strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000.

***
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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NorFX

Well-known member
281 1
CryptoNews of the Week

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- According to Coingecko, bitcoin is up 12% on the back of another tweet by Elon Musk. Tesla's owner said the company will resume selling electric cars for BTC when at least half of the miners switch to renewable energy.
The tweet was a response to criticism from Magda Wierzycka, the head of Sygnia finance company. She said in the podcast The Money Show the Tesla founder was manipulating the price of the first cryptocurrency. In her view, the billionaire raised the price of digital gold deliberately and eliminated much of his position at highs. Sygnia's CEO emphasized that if Musk's tweets were about any public company, he would have already been targeted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Musk called the words of the head of Sygnia inaccurate and recalled that the electric car manufacturer sold only 10% of its bitcoins to test the liquidity of the market.

- Venture capitalist and billionaire Tim Draper predicted in 2018 the growth of the first cryptocurrency to $250,000 by 2022 and called the blockchain one of the most outstanding inventions in human history. And he has confirmed his forecast now, albeit with some timing prolongation. Bitcoin will hit the $250,000 mark by the end of 2022 or early 2023, according to his latest statement, despite the sharp price fluctuations.
The reasons for the growth, which the billionaire named, are still the same: the limited emission of coins and the growing demand for digital gold. “Give it [bitcoin] about a year and a half and all retailers will use OpenNode,” the investor said. As a reminder, OpenNode is a bitcoin payment processor created by a group of enthusiasts, in the development of which Tim Draper invested $1.25 mln.

- Tunisian Finance Minister Ali Kuli announced the need to change the country's legislation to “decriminalize” ownership of the first cryptocurrency. He said the occasion was reports of the arrest of a 17-year-old for using digital assets.
Local media reported in May that Tunisian law enforcement had allegedly accused the young man of money laundering. The incident sparked outrage in the cryptocurrency community: some of its participants expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of clarity in the regulation of the industry.

- Tudor Investment hedge fund trader and founder Paul Tudor Jones said in an interview with CNBC that he would channel 5% of his capital into bitcoin. He is convinced that the first cryptocurrency contributes to the diversification of the investment portfolio through “embedded mathematics.”
The billionaire currently reserves 5% each for gold, bitcoin, exchange contracts and cash. It will determine the scenario for placing the remaining 80% funds after analyzing the outcome of the June 16 meeting of the US Fed. The investor hinted that he could increase the share of "inflationary" instruments if the monetary authorities ignore the recent surge in consumer prices. In his view, it was of a “very significant” character.
“For me, the first cryptocurrency is just a way to look fundamentally at how I protect my wealth over time. This is a great opportunity for diversification, for preserving capital, the billionaire explained. "If they [the Fed] say, "We are on the trajectory [of a temporary increase in inflation], everything is fine," then I’ll go all-in.”

- El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele proposed a "bitcoin law" to parliament last week. Cryptocurrency is recognized as legal tender and companies are required to accept BTC as payment, unless they are located in rural areas with no internet access. In addition, bitcoin trading is exempt from capital gains taxes.
And now Bukele has come up with another initiative. He instructed the head of state-owned electricity company LaGeo to develop a plan to mine Bitcoin using volcanic energy. “Very cheap, 100% clean, 100% renewable energy with zero emissions. We will try to get things done quickly,” the head of state wrote on Twitter.
There are over 20 volcanoes in El Salvador, some of which are active. LaGeo is now using volcanoes to generate geothermal energy. And, for example, Genesis Mining in Iceland uses underground heat to generate electricity.

- According to the regular Millionaire Survey, 47% of wealthy millennials in the USA buy crypto assets. At the same time, 35% of them hold more than half of their investment portfolio in digital assets.
Millennials have shown greater interest in cryptocurrencies than owners of large fortunes overall. Those were only about 17%. Moreover, only every tenth of them invested more than 10% of their capital in digital assets.

- Banks in Texas (USA) have been authorized to accept and store customers' bitcoins, as well as handle their cryptocurrency transactions. Lending organizations also received the rights from the state authorities to collaborate with startups developing various services for digital assets.
It should be noted that of all American states, Texas was one of the first, as early as 2019, to move on the path to legislate this market.

- The Netherlands should immediately impose a blanket ban on mining and bitcoin operations, Pieter Hasekamp, director of the Economic Analysis Bureau at the country's Ministry of Economy, said.
The official listed a number of reasons why the authorities need to recognize the first cryptocurrency as illegal. In his view, digital gold has no intrinsic value, and the coin itself does not perform any of the three functions of money: the unit of accounting, the means of payment and the means of accumulation.
Hasekamp mentioned security issues, fraud risks and added that digital assets are used in criminal activities. At the same time, he considers the collapse of the crypto market inevitable.

- According to the New Indian Express, India's hostile stance on bitcoin is changing to a more loyal one. The authorities now intend not to ban but regulate the crypto sphere. India wants to create an alternative asset class that will include digital currencies. The regulatory framework will be created by the Securities and Exchange Council in partnership with the Ministry of Finance.


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Stan NorFX

Well-known member
281 1
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 21 - 25, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday June 16 was the key event of the week. No particularly significant decisions were made there: the interest rate remained unchanged at 0.25%. The Federal Reserve will also continue to print money and buy back assets in the previous volume of $120 billion. But, as expected, following the meeting, the regulator's roadmap was unveiled, as a result of which the dollar bulls got what they had been waiting for.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues raised the forecast for US GDP for 2021 to 7%, and also recognized the need to discuss the process of curtailing fiscal stimulus programs (QE). The Fed has no intention of turning a blind eye to accelerating inflation to the highest marks since the 1990s. However, according to Powell, the US labor market is still far from the pre-crisis level, and therefore it is advisable to maintain soft financial conditions for now. At each subsequent meeting, the regulator will consider reducing QE volumes. And he will set out the level of employment after which incentives can be reduced, at the next meeting on July 28.
Investors also received a signal of intent to raise interest rates earlier than expected. An averaged forecast by Fed executives showed that the rate could be gradually raised to 0.5-0.6 percent by the end of 2023. At the same time, Jerome Powell noted that vaccination has a positive effect on the labor market, and we will soon see strong employment reports. Inflation may also be stronger and more stable than central bank officials had expected. And it will require a quicker response to what is happening.
Such "hawkish" forecasts of the Federal Reserve System instantly revived the market's appetite for the dollar. Investors continued to buy USD despite weak macro statistics, thinking that the indicators will improve as the US economy recovers.
One of the major currencies that suffered last week was the euro. Europe's economy has not kept pace with America's in any way. And according to Philip Laine, the ECB's chief economist, it will be too early even in September for the regulator to begin discussing the programme of winding down QE in the Eurozone.
As a result, starting from a height of 1.2125 on June 16 and flying 280 points, EUR/USD reached the local bottom at 1.1845 on Friday June 18. The finish took place at 1.1865, in the zone where the pair returned after a 10-week absence;

- GBP/USD. If the euro fell against the dollar by 280 points, the pound ceded as much as 340 to the US currency. Positive sentiment about the UK currency is melting like fog over London after the country's prime minister, Boris Johnson, delayed the full opening of the country's businesses by a month. This is due to an increase in cases of the Delta coronavirus strain, first discovered in India, which doubles the risk of hospitalization. And this despite the fact that about 80% of the country's adult population has already been vaccinated with one dose of the vaccine, and 30% have been vaccinated with two doses.
The pound is also under pressure from the increasingly unstable relations between London and Brussels after Brexit. This is particularly true of trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
Against this unjoyful backdrop, another “blow” is being struck on 16 June by the U.S. Federal Reserve management. The result is a fall of the pound to the level of 1.3790, not far from which it ends the trading session;

- USD/JPY. Making a forecast for the past five days, the majority of experts (60%) voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the zone of 110.00-110.30. And, looking at the results of the week, they were right: starting at 109.70, the pair finished at 110.20.
It is clear that the statements of Jerome Powell and other executives of the US Federal Reserve could not but affect the behavior of the USD/JPY pair: it reached 110.80 at the high. In addition to the dollar's strengthening, weak macroeconomic statisticians from Japan have added pressure on the yen. Thus, the growth of orders for engineering products in April slowed down from + 3.7% to + 0.6%, against the forecast of 2.7%. Of course, the rate grew by 6.5% in annual terms, but still turned out to be lower than the expected 8%.
Despite this, amid the subsidence of the remaining major currencies, the Japanese currency has shown maximum resilience against the dollar. At the time when the euro, pound and other currencies continued their decline, it was, on the contrary, able to win back about 60% of the losses. The reason for this, according to a number of analysts, lies in the lower risk appetite of the market and increased investor appetite for safer assets;

- cryptocurrencies. It has long been clear that news has a fairly strong impact on cryptocurrency rates. However, much more powerful fluctuations in this market are caused by large investments. There were none of those last week. On the contrary, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization even decreased slightly, from $1.585 trillion to $1.560 trillion. So there remains news, whose source is influencers and regulators.
In terms of the former, Elon Musk was once again there with his tweets. This time, the owner of Tesla said that the company will resume selling electric cars for BTC when at least half of the miners switch to renewable energy. Bitcoin is up 12% amid this tweet, according to CoinGecko.
It is worth noting that the tweet was a response to criticism from the head of the financial company Sygnia Magda Wierzycki. She said in the podcast The Money Show the Tesla founder was manipulating the price of the first cryptocurrency. In her view, the billionaire raised the price of digital gold deliberately and eliminated much of his position at highs. Sygnia's CEO emphasized that if Musk's tweets were about any public company, he would have already been targeted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Now about the regulators, news from which comes from all over the planet. Thus, Tunisian Finance Minister Ali Kuli announced the need to change the country's legislation to “decriminalize” ownership of the first cryptocurrency. The government of India has also changed its anger to the mercy for bitcoin. Now, as in Tunisia, it intends not to ban but regulate the crypto sphere. Banks in Texas (USA) have been authorized to accept and store customers' bitcoins, as well as handle their cryptocurrency transactions. It should be noted that of all American states, Texas was one of the first, as early as 2019, to move on the path to legislate this market.
Similar events are taking place in El Salvador. The president of this country, Nayib Bukele, has proposed a "bitcoin law" for parliamentary consideration. Under the bill, cryptocurrency is recognized as legal tender and companies are required to accept BTC as payment. In addition, bitcoin trading is exempt from capital gains taxes.
Some important European officials, however, have fallen out of favor with digital assets. Thus, Peter Hasekamp, director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Dutch Ministry of Economy, said that a complete ban on mining and bitcoin transactions should be immediately imposed. In his opinion, digital gold has no intrinsic value, it is used in a criminal environment, and the collapse of the crypto market is inevitable.
But, judging by the emerging trend, Mr. Hasekamp will remain in the minority. Most regulators will try to take control of digital assets. As the great German chancellor Otto von Bismarck liked to repeat back in the 19th century, "If you cannot defeat the enemy, lead it."
Spurred on by the news and the bulls' desire to take revenge, the BTC/USD pair rallied earlier in the week, reaching $41,260 on Tuesday June 15. However, the sharp strengthening of the dollar after the US Federal Reserve meeting reversed the uptrend, bringing the pair back below the $36,000 level at the end of the working week.
The Bitcoin dominance index added slightly, rising from 44.03% to 45.33%. The same thing happened with Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which went up from 21 to 25 points. Note that since the BTC/USD pair went sideways at the end of May, its values have never gone beyond the 20-40-point range.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Does the EUR/USD fall mean a trend reversal? Or will everything be back to normal soon and the dollar will continue to retreat? (Recall that at the turn of 2016-17, these two currencies almost reached parity. Then 1 euro was only $1.034, and after only a year the European currency was worth $1.2565).
In the wake of the Fed's comments, some banks began to abandon their bullish forecasts for the euro. Others took a break. Still others, such as Societe Generale, expect the pair to return to 1.2000. Opinions among experts are almost equally divided: 55% of them vote for a further fall, and 45%, supported by graphical analysis on H4, support its growth. According to the latter, it is too early to talk about a trend reversal, additional confirmation is needed, and the collapse that occurred is the result of speculation on the Fed's statements, which led to panic closing of long positions.
Technical analysis readings look like this: 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. But at the same time, 35% of oscillators on both time frames are already in the oversold zone, which may indicate an approaching correction to the north.
The pair ended the previous week in a strong support-resistance zone, which it has been storming from time to time since 2017. The nearest target of the bears is the low of March 31, 2021, 1.1700, the next one - April 04, 2020 low, 1.1600. Bulls will try to regain their lost positions. The first serious resistance is in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone, the next one is 100 pips higher. The goal is to refresh the May high of 1.2265. However, it will obviously take more than one week to reach it. And here it should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the advantage goes to the bulls, the number of which increases from 45% to 60%.
From the strategically important events of the coming week, it is worth highlighting the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on Monday June 21 and Wednesday June 23, the meetings of the European Council on June 24-25, as well as the speech of the head of the Fed Jerome Powell in Congress on June 22. In addition, Germany's Markit business activity will be released on June 23, followed by capital and durable orders and annual US GDP data the following day;

- GBP/USD. On Thursday, June 24, a meeting of the Bank of England is due. In the run-up to this event, experts continue to analyze incoming economic data in an attempt to forecast possible moves by the regulator.
As mentioned in the first part of the review, the negative factors include the risk of labor shortages arising from Brexit, the controversy in Northern Ireland and the problems associated with the new strain of coronavirus.
Against the backdrop of generally encouraging macro statistics, retail sales in the UK have unexpectedly dropped, especially food. This makes one think that the growth of the country's GDP in May and in the II quarter of 2021. will not be as strong as predicted.
The report released last Wednesday showed that overall inflation in the country is rising, and the CPI's annual rate rose by 2.1%, surpassing the 2% target for the first time in two years.
Adding to this the positive UK labour market data released on June 15, the Bank of England can be expected to start discussing moves to wind down programmes quantitative easing (QE) in the foreseeable future. As for the regulator's specific momentary steps, it is very likely that, like its counterparts in Europe and the United States, it will not move sharply and leave the parameters of its credit - monetary policy without change. Although, again, the Bank of England's management does not rule out hawkish statements similar to those of US Federal Reserve management. And they might, just as well, push the British currency back up.
55% of analysts expect the pound to rise, supported by graphical analysis on D1. Moreover, with the transition to forecasts for July-August, their number increases to 70%. The readings of the technical indicators are very similar to their readings for the EUR/USD pair: all 100% on both time frames are facing south. True, there are 25% oscillators in the oversold area here, not 35%. The nearest strong support is located in the 1.3670-1.3700 zone, followed by 1.3600. Resistances - 1.3920, 1.4000, 1.4150 and 1.4250;

- USD/JPY. Making a forecast for the near future, the majority of experts (65%) vote for further strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair above the 111.00 horizon. They are supported by 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. Graphical analysis on H4 is also in agreement with this forecast, however, it does not exclude that the pair will make a spurt to the north, relying on support at 109.70-109.80.
The remaining 35% of analysts, together with the graphical analysis on D1, believe that this support will not become a serious obstacle to the strengthening of the yen, and the pair USD/JPY will be able to fall to the area of 108.00-108.55;

- cryptocurrencies. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has not gone out of the fear zone for almost a month. Frightened by the collapse of quotes in April-May, many, especially retail, investors and traders take profits at the slightest sign of danger, which prevents the BTC/USD pair from gaining a foothold above the psychologically important level of $40,000.
And there's also the US Fed, fueling interest in the dollar and reversing stock indices. Suffice to compare the S&P500 and BTC charts to see their correlation, which, according to a number of experts, will now only grow stronger.
In the event of an active sale of shares, most likely, bitcoin will not feel good either, which is an even more risky asset for institutional investors. (Not to mention altcoins).
Yes, hedge funds understand not only the risks, but also the benefits of investing in digital assets. And, according to the Financial Times, they intend to "substantially" increase their shares in cryptocurrencies by 2026. But, first of all, 2026 will not come soon. And secondly, this "substantially" is not so "substantial". According to a survey of 100 hedge funds conducted by Intertrust, on average, they intend to allocate up to 7.2% of their investment portfolios to cryptocurrencies, which will amount to about $312 billion, that is, about 20% of the current volume of the crypto market. Agree that this kind of growth over 5-6 years looks modest enough.
Earlier, Tudor Investment hedge fund founder Paul Tudor Jones said in an interview with CNBC that hereserves 5% of his capital each for gold, bitcoin, exchange contracts and cash. The billionaire was going to determine the scenario for placing the remaining 80% funds after analyzing the outcome of the June 16 meeting of the US Fed. The investor hinted that he could increase the share of "inflationary" instruments if the monetary authorities ignore the recent "very significant" jump in consumer prices. The meeting has passed and, perhaps, we will soon know the final content of the Tudor Investment portfolio.
The above leads to the conclusion that, despite caution in approaches, institutional investors continue to believe in the prospects of the crypto market. As another billionaire, Avenue Capital Management founder Mark Lasry, observed, the cryptocurrency market has already formed and is not threatened by anything. “If a market is created, it does not disappear anywhere,” the financier believes.
It is also encouraging that hodlers holding bitcoins for more than six months have, for the first time since October 2020, started buying more than selling. And whales (wallets from 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC) have purchased about 90,000 coins in the last month for about $3.4 billion.
Such optimists include venture investor and billionaire Tim Draper. Back in 2018, he predicted the growth of the first cryptocurrency to $250,000 by 2022. And he has confirmed his forecast now, albeit with some timing prolongation. Bitcoin will hit the $250,000 mark by the end of 2022 or early 2023, according to his latest statement, despite the sharp price fluctuations. The reasons for the growth, which the billionaire named, are still the same: the limited emission of coins and the growing demand for digital gold as protection from inflation.
And at the end of the review, our traditional heading of crypto life hacks. This time, the President of Salvador Nayyib Bukele is its hero, who has recently come up with another initiative. He instructed the head of state-owned electricity company LaGeo to develop a plan to mine bitcoin with "very cheap, 100% clean, 100% renewable, zero emissions" energy... of more than 20 volcanoes in the country. So, if you happen to have an active volcano in your possession, you may well follow the example of the head of El Salvador. Elon Musk will be pleased.
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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NorFX

Well-known member
281 1
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Sotheby's auction house, founded in 1744, will auction a rare diamond in Hong Kong. The lot has been estimated at $10-$15 million. The bets are planned to be accepted in the traditional currency, bitcoins or Ethereum. Bidding will start on July 9. Before that, the 101.38-carat pear-shaped diamond will be exhibited at Sotheby's Gallery in Hong Kong.
“This is truly a symbolic moment,” the auction house said in a statement. “The most ancient and symbolic value denominator can be purchased for the first time with the latest universal currency of humanity.”

- According to Reuters, China's authorities have once again caused panic in the cryptocurrency market. The People's Bank of China has reportedly urged banks to immediately close payment gateways for customers who trade in digital assets. The crypto market reacted immediately to this news with a drop to $1.164 trillion. Thus, in just seven days, from June 15 to 22, the market has shrunk by more than 33%.
Along with the fall of the crypto market, the hash rate of the bitcoin network also falls. At the time of writing, it has shrunk to 91 exahash per sec. Note that the last time the network recorded such values was back in November 2020. However, according to a number of experts, this reduction in the hash rate may be due to the relocation of miners from China to other countries.

- Amid the Chinese government's crackdown on the crypto industry, a logistics company in Guangzhou announced it was transporting a large batch of bitcoin mining equipment to the United States. According to CNBC, the cargo weighing 3,000 kg will be delivered to Maryland by air.
Earlier, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez talked about plans to attract Chinese miners to the city, giving them access to nuclear energy. He stressed that he had not received specific proposals, but he was sure that cheap electricity would be of interest to industry representatives.

- Michael Burry, an investor and founder of hedge fund Scion Capital, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, warned subscribers about the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. However, then this tweet was deleted. "All the hype and speculation is just attracting retail traders before the mother of all the crashes. Parabolic [uptrends] will not pass. [...] History has not changed,” Burry wrote.
The investor also noted that the problem of the digital asset market lies in too much leverage. “If you don’t know how much leverage is in cryptocurrencies, you don’t know anything about cryptocurrencies,” he stressed.
Burry had earlier warned that the market had inflated "the biggest bubble in history." In his post, he used the hashtag FlyingPigs360, which, according to Business Insider, may be a reference to the adage about investment: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."

- Bestselling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki has also predicted the collapse of the crypto market. “The biggest bubble in world history is getting bigger. The biggest crash in world history is approaching. Buy more gold and silver. Expect bitcoin to drop to $24,000,” he wrote.
Recall that in 2020, Kiyosaki advised buying the first cryptocurrency until its price exceeded $20,000 and predicted the growth of the asset to $50,000.

- Business intelligence and software provider MicroStrategy has done it again: it has bought over 13,000 bitcoins. Michael Saylor's firm is now the largest corporate investor in digital assets. It owns 105,085 BTC, which is 0.5% of all bitcoins that ever existed and 0.56% of all tokens currently in circulation.
The company made the purchase after it raised $500 million through the placement of high-priority securities. As Saylor wrote on Twitter, 13,005 coins were bought for just under $500 million at an average price of $37,617. In total, the businessman has invested over $2.7 billion in bitcoins, and the average purchase price was $26,080, which allows the company to remain in the black for now.
Note that on the back of the latest drop in the crypto market, MicroStrategy shares are down 7.8%.

- Popular analyst PlanB has described a potentially bearish scenario for bitcoin this year. As usual, he relies on a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model. PlanB emphasizes that the current price pattern is consistent with a bearish scenario, however he is confident that bitcoin will hit its all-time high by October. And the price will reach $135,000 by the end of the year.
“Bitcoin fell below $34,000 due to Elon Musk's tweet about the unsustainability of bitcoin, as well as due to the panic caused by the Chinese repression against miners,” he tweeted. “However, there are more fundamental reasons for the June decline. Perhaps they will spread to July. My worst-case scenario for 2021 (based on on-chain analysis): August> $47,000, September> $43,000, October> $63,000, November> $98,000, December> $135,000." The most optimistic scenario assumes an increase in BTC to $450,000.

- Russian billionaire co-owner of the aluminum giant En+ Group Oleg Deripaska accused the Bank of Russia of tight regulation of digital assets. In his opinion, the central bank discourages citizens from getting involved in cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. He suggested that the country should add the main cryptocurrency as a means of payment.
In addition, the oligarch pointed to the need for Russia to effectively conclude business deals with the rest of the world and called on the central bank to adopt "a real financial instrument that ensures independence in foreign trade settlements." “Even poor El Salvador realized the need for digital currencies and took the simple path of accepting bitcoin as a means of payment,” Deripaska said.

- Former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's Mad Money show Jim Cramer sold most of his bitcoins following news of China's mining restrictions. Cramer said there were structural problems in digital gold and predicted a further decline in its price. "When China pursues something, they tend to bring the matter to an end. This is not a democracy. This is a dictatorship. I think they see bitcoin as a direct threat to the regime because of what it is - the system is beyond their control.”
Cramer also said that a decrease in the rate of mined coins could have a positive effect on the rate of the first cryptocurrency, but this did not happen. “When mining is limited, bitcoin obviously has to go up, unless holders are going out all over the place,” he explained.
The Mad Money presenter added that the drop in Bitcoin to $30,000 could be an entry point for new investors. However, the presenter himself does not intend to buy cryptocurrency.

- The founder of the Point72 Asset Management Fund Steve Cohen, unlike Jim Cramer, on the contrary, reformatted completely to cryptocurrency. Cohen, whose net worth is estimated at $14 billion, said that he does not care about the current price of bitcoin, as he is still an early investor:
“Now I definitely won't miss anything. I missed the first part, but I still feel that I got involved quite early,” says the billionaire.

- IOHK CEO, Cardano founder and Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson has no doubts that ETH will beat BTC.
“The problem with bitcoin is that it's too slow - it's like programming for mainframes of the past, compared to building applications now. The only reason bitcoin still exists is because there is a huge amount of money invested in its support. " “Bitcoin is our worst enemy. It has a huge network, a well-known name and the support of regulators. But you cannot change its system, even if you fix the most problematic places, ” - said Hoskinson. He also commented on the bitcoin community, calling it "too ossified" and reluctant to innovate.

- Tesla founder Elon Musk should better study the mining of the first cryptocurrency, since in reality it is much more environmentally friendly than is commonly thought. “I don’t know how long Elon has been studying mining, but I hope he does a little more research on this topic,” said Kraken CEO Jesse Powell in an interview with Bloomberg. He acknowledged that there may be greener alternatives to bitcoin. But, in his opinion, people overestimate the harm of cryptocurrency to the environment.
Mining digital gold allows a lot of excess and wasted energy to be utilized, and also contributes to the development of the renewable energy sector, Powell said.


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Stan NorFX

Well-known member
281 1
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 28 - July 02, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The data on the labor market and the US economy released last week did not have much positive to please. Q1 GDP growth (6.4%) coincided with forecast data, which is no better but also no worse than market expectations. And then there were some disappointments. Initial jobless claims were 411K with a forecast of 380K. The increase in durable goods orders for May was lower than expected at 2.3% instead of 2.7%. And capital goods orders fell into the negative zone, minus 0.1%. And all this is against the back of Markit's business growth in Germany (60.4 in June versus 56.2 in May) and in the Eurozone as a whole (59.2 vs. 57.1).
Despite the slowing American economy, the risk appetite of those willing to invest in it has not subsided, but, on the contrary, even grew. They were backed by President Joe Biden's Senate-approved infrastructure plan. This plan includes the construction of new roads and bridges, ports, investments in water supply, clean energy and broadband internet. The total investment will amount to $1.2 trillion. Such an infusion will create thousands of new jobs and add points to the United States in the economic confrontation with China.
The rise in related investor optimism has already led the Dow Jones to gain more than 1,400 points over the week, the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite once again updating historic highs, and The VIX Fear and Volatility Index fell to a one-year low.
The outflow of funds to the stock markets weakened the dollar. The DXY dollar index fell from 92.32 to 91.80, while the euro was winning back 110 points from the American currency at the week's high. Starting from 1.1865, the EUR/USD pair reached 1.1975 on Friday June 25, after which the bulls dried up, followed by a fightback and finish at 1.1940;

- GBP/USD. A meeting of the Bank of England took place on Thursday, June 24. As for the specific momentary steps of the regulator, no one expected any surprises from it. It was clear to everyone that the Bank of England would not make drastic moves and would leave the parameters of its monetary policy unchanged. So it happened: the asset buyback program was maintained at ?895bn and the interest rate at 0.1%.
However, investors had hoped that positive UK labor market data would prompt the Bank's management to start discussing moves to wind down programs for quantitative easing (QE) soon. Just as their colleagues from the other side of the Atlantic intend to do.
On these expectations, as most analysts predicted (55 per cent), the GBP/USD pair moved north, reaching the key 1.4000. However, then the degree of optimism went down. The first tub of cold water was poured on Wednesday June 23 following the publication of the June Markit PMI for the UK services sector. It turned out to be lower than in May: 61.7 compared to 62.9. And then a whole chilling waterfall followed: the Bank of England not only did not change the parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program but did not give a hint that these parameters could be changed in the foreseeable future.
Carried away by a stream of sobering water, the GBP/USD pair groped the local bottom only at 1.3870. And barely pushing off from it, it was able to complete the week 20 points higher, at the level of 1.3885;

- USD/JPY. When making a forecast for the past week, the majority of experts (65%) voted for further strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair above the 111.00 horizon. They were supported by graphical analysis on H4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. And they were all right: despite the fact that the dollar was falling against the euro and the pound in the first half of the five-day period, it was growing against the Japanese yen, reaching the height of 111.10 on June 24. True, the Japanese currency failed to gain a foothold there, and it placed the last chord at 110.75;

- cryptocurrencies. Although these currencies are virtual, the news regarding them is quite real. Let's start with a brief overview.
The developer of the well-known anti-virus of the same name, “crypto-baron” John McAfee has been found dead in a cell at a prison in Barcelona. The cause of death, Forbes reports citing the Spanish Ministry of Justice, is believed to have been suicide after a Spanish court decided to extradite McAfee to the United States. There, among other things, he was accused of money laundering, tax evasion and orchestrating altcoin fraud. The US DOJ claimed McAfee and his partner earned more than $2 million on cryptocurrencies.
However, this 2 million seems a ridiculous figure compared to the $3.6 billion that Africypt's creators, brothers Raees and Ameer Cajee, from South Africa, stole from investors. And if John McAfee was already 75, then these scammers were barely 17 and 20 years old, respectively.
According to Bloomberg, the Cajee brothers' scam could become the largest in the history of the cryptocurrency market. So far, the top line has been held by Canadian QuadrigACX project creator Gerald Cotten, emptying the pockets of $162 million worth of customers.
These amounts are large, of course. But the main losses for investors do not come from the actions of fraudsters, but because of the regulators. The total crypto market capitalization decreased by almost $400 billion in just 10 days, from June 15 to June 25, - from $1.734 trillion to $1.336 trillion. It even fell to $1.164 trillion at the low, returning to the values of February 2021. In addition, almost $900 million of futures positions were liquidated in just one day, June 23.
Along with the fall of the crypto market, the hash rate of the BTC network also decreased. However, according to a number of experts, this may be due to the relocation of miners from China to other countries.
The negative news background led to a drop in bitcoin quotes below the dangerous psychological level of $30,000. As a result, the BTC/USD pair returned to where it was five months ago, on January 27, 2021. The local bottom was reached at $29,240 (a loss of about 55% from the April 14 high).
According to a number of experts, the benchmark currency could have fallen down to $25,000, but buyers came to its rescue, who were waiting for the moment to buy an asset at a large discount. As a result, the pair grew slightly, and on the evening of Friday June 25, BTC traded in the region of $32,000-33,000 per coin.
It would seem that in such a situation, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index would have to fall deep into the Extreme Fear zone, to zero. However, having shown a minimal drawdown of up to 22 points, it quickly returned to where it was a week ago, to the 25-point mark.
According to some experts, the fact that bitcoin has held up in the $30,000 area proves its exclusivity. Without it, altcoins would most likely just go into free fall.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Recall that after the June 16 meeting, the hawkish forecasts of Federal Reserve executives have dramatically revived the market's appetite for the dollar. Inspired by their rhetoric, investors rushed to buy USD even despite weak US macro statistics.
As a result, having started on June 16 from a height of 1.2125 and flying down 280 points, the EUR/USD pair completed the five-day period at 1.1845 on Friday June 18. And it turned around again and went up on Monday, June 21.
What is that? Have investors changed their minds? Or is it just a correction on the downtrend path?
On the one hand, representatives of the FRS continue to insist that the US labor market is still far from the pre-crisis level, and therefore, for now, it is necessary to maintain soft financial conditions. Such statements, coupled with improved global risk appetite and positive economic data from the Eurozone, should push the EUR/USD pair higher.
But on the other hand, Jerome Powell and his colleagues recognized the need to discuss the process of winding up stimulus programs (QE). There was also a signal of their intention to raise interest rates earlier than expected. The ECB, on the contrary, declares that they are not going to rush to reduce QE volumes, and that the current inflation rate in the Eurozone does not cause concern. And these factors are already not playing on the side of the dollar.
The macroeconomic indicators published next week may tip the scales in one direction or another. Data on the German consumer market will be released on Tuesday June 29 and Thursday July 1, and a preliminary consumer price index will be released on Wednesday, showing the level of inflation in the Eurozone as a whole. As for the statistics from the United States, we will find out the change in the ISM business activity index in the country's manufacturing sector on July 1. And data on the US labor market will come out on June 30 and July 02, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).
In the meantime, 60% of analysts, supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1, expect the dollar to strengthen and the pair to decline to the June 18 low of 1.1845. The next target for the bears is the March 31, 2021 low. 1.1700. The nearest support is 1.1915 and 1.1880.
The remaining 40% of the experts side with the bulls, which will try to regain the positions lost over the last month. The first serious resistance is in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone, the next one is 100 pips higher. The goal is to update the May 25 high at 1.2265;

- GBP/USD. As a reminder, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has postponed the full opening of the country's businesses for a month. This is due to an increase in cases of infection with the Delta coronavirus strain, first discovered in India, which doubles the risk of hospitalization. The number of infections has approached 20,000 a day, and this is putting pressure on the pound. (Although only 18 people died from COVID-19 during the same period. The ratio is less than 0.001, which is a very optimistic indicator).
The increasingly unstable relations between London and Brussels after Brexit continue to put pressure on the pound. This is especially true for trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
However, at the same time, 50% of experts hope that the British currency will find the strength to retest the level of 1.4000 and rise another 100 points higher. The nearest resistance is 1.3940. More distant targets are 1.4150 and 1.4250.
20% of analysts are betting on the victory of the dollar and the fall of the pair to the zone 1.3670-1.3700. The remaining 30% believe that the pair will remain in the sideways channel 1.3800-1.4000.
The indicator readings look like this: 85% of the oscillators are colored red, the remaining 15% give signals that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are also overwhelmingly in the red zone. Those are 100% on H4 and 85% on D1. Graphical analysis draws the following trading ranges: 1.3850-1.4050 for H4, 1.3770-1.4000 for D1.
As for the events of the coming week, we can note the publication of UK GDP data on Wednesday June 30, as well as the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on Thursday July 1;
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- USD/JPY. Who will win: USD haven currency or JPY's safe haven? Or, if you like, you can ask the question the other way around: a safe haven currency JPY or a safe haven USD? 80% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1 bet on the dollar to win. However, the remaining 20% of the oscillators are signaling that the pair is overbought.
Graphical analysis believes that having pushed off the support in the 109.75-110.100 zone, the pair will go up, break through the resistance at 111.00 and try to first update the high of last year March 24 at 111.70, and then the high of February 20, 2020, of 112.25.
Experts’ opinions on the pair's movement in the coming week were divided equally, 50 by 50. However, in the transition to the forecast for July, 75% side with the bears, believing that the USD/JPY pair will be able to drop to the area of 108.00-108.55.
In terms of macro statistics, the Bank of Japan will release the Tankan Index for Q2 of this year on July 01. This Large Producers Index reflects the general business environment for the country's large, mostly export-oriented companies. A reading above 0 is positive for the JPY, while a reading below 0 is negative. The index is projected to rise to 15, up from 5 in Q1 2021.

- cryptocurrencies. It is highly likely that the bull and bear fight in the area of $30,000 will continue. The medium-term goal of the latter is to bring the BTC/USD pair back to the $20,000 mark, the December 2017 high, after reaching which the market was pinned down by ice frosts. Now the pair has lost about 55% in just two months. So, the current crypto winter could turn out to be much harsher than in 2018. As mentioned above, investors are actively closing long positions and liquidating futures transactions. And the heads of financial giants JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have again declared bitcoin an unwanted investment.
Investor and founder of the hedge fund Scion Capital, Michael Burry who had predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, warned his subscribers about the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. "All the hype and speculation is just attracting retail traders before the mother of all the crashes. Parabolic [uptrends] will not pass. [...] History has not changed,” Burry wrote. The investor also noted that the problem of the digital asset market lies in too much leverage. “If you don’t know how much leverage is in cryptocurrencies, you don’t know anything about cryptocurrencies,” he stressed.
Burry had earlier warned that the market had inflated "the biggest bubble in history." In his post, he used the hashtag FlyingPigs360, which, according to Business Insider, may be a reference to the adage about investment: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."
The author of the bestselling "Rich Dad Poor Dad" entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki joined Michael Burrie. He also expects the crypto market to collapse. “The biggest bubble is getting bigger. The biggest crash in world history is approaching. Buy more gold and silver. Expect bitcoin to drop to $24,000,” he wrote. (Recall that in 2020, Kiyosaki advised buying the first cryptocurrency until its price exceeded $20,000 and predicted the growth of the asset to $50,000).
Jim Kramer, former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's Mad Money show, sold most of his bitcoins following news of China's mining restrictions. "When China pursues something, they tend to bring the matter to an end. I think they see bitcoin as a direct threat to the regime because of what it is - the system is beyond their control,” he said and he added that a decrease in the rate of mined coins could have a positive effect on the rate of the first cryptocurrency, but this did not happen. “When mining is limited, bitcoin obviously has to go up, unless holders are going out all over the place.”
However, as usual, there are not only those who sell in the market, but also those who buy. Thus, for example, the founder of the Point72 Asset Management Fund Steve Cohen, unlike Jim Cramer, on the contrary, reformatted completely to cryptocurrency. Cohen, whose net worth is estimated at $14 billion, said that he does not care about the current price of bitcoin, as he is still an early investor: “Now I definitely won't miss anything. I missed the first part, but I still feel that I got involved quite early,” says the billionaire.
The MicroStrategy company also replenished its reserves of the main cryptocurrency, having bought another 13,005 coins. This Michael Saylor firm now owns 105,085 BTC, making it the largest corporate investor in digital assets.
The company made the purchase after it raised $500 million through the placement of high-priority securities. As Sailor wrote on Twitter, the 13,005 coins were bought for just under $500 million at an average price of $37,617. In total, the businessman invested over $2.7 billion in bitcoins, and the average purchase price was $26,080, which allows the company to remain in the black for now.
In terms of forecasts, the scenario described by the popular PlanB analyst is interesting. As usual, the specialist relies on a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model. PlanB emphasizes that the current price pattern is consistent with a bearish scenario, however he is confident that bitcoin will hit its all-time high by October. And the price will reach $135,000 by the end of the year.
“Bitcoin fell below $34,000 due to Elon Musk's tweet about the unsustainability of bitcoin, as well as due to the panic caused by the Chinese repression against miners,” PlanB tweeted. “However, there are more fundamental reasons for the June decline. Perhaps they will spread to July. My worst-case scenario for 2021 (based on on-chain analysis): August> $47,000, September> $43,000, October> $63,000, November> $98,000, December> $135,000." The most optimistic scenario assumes an increase in BTC to $450,000.
The weighted average forecast of experts for the coming week looks like this: 70% of them expect the BTC/USD pair to return to the $36,000 zone, the remaining 30% see it at $28,000-29,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NorFX

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CryptoNews of the Week

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- "The cryptocurrency market is not yet completely healthy, however, the healing process has already begun." This conclusion was reached by JPMorgan analysts in their new report, Bloomberg writes. Although bitcoin is still far from highs, cryptocurrencies are gradually recovering from the collapse.
For example, the lack of activity in the bitcoin futures market was described by JPMorgan strategists as a “positive factor.” However, the short-term outlook, in their opinion, is "extremely difficult." Analysts also believe that there are still "submarine positions" in the market, that the market should get rid of. However, it is unclear from the report what level bitcoin should reach for full “healing.”

- Former CEO of Gyft and co-founder of the Civic project, Vinnie Lingham, was once nicknamed the "oracle" because he was able to predict the future value of the oldest cryptocurrency.
Lingham's predictions for BTC are not always optimistic, and his calls are traditionally more conservative than those of people with fantastic ideas. However, like many others, he believes there is a possibility that BTC could hit six figures as early as this year. Oracle wrote in his Twitter account that if the price continues to hold at $30,000, then we will probably see bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of the year.

- Owners of small hydropower plants in China are forced to sell equipment due to government restrictive measures against bitcoin miners. These are small hydroelectric power plants generating about 50 MW, some of which are located in the Sichuan province. Local authorities demanded a halt to the activities of “key” miners until June 20 and banned energy companies from supplying power to them.

- The President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a law providing for the introduction of additional mining fees. The National Association of Blockchain and Data Center Industry of Kazakhstan said the decision will “very negatively affect the investment attractiveness of the industry.” According to the president of the association, miners from China, who see Kazakhstan as a possible jurisdiction for migration, are also “embarrassed by this initiative.”
As for the authorities, they see no “critical consequences” from the adoption of the law. In their view, the introduction of an additional electricity charge when mining cryptocurrencies will allow "to bring out of the shadow those miners who are now in the grey zone."

- Former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of the Mad Money show on CNBC Jim Cramer cut his positions at Ethereum in May, after the coin hit the historic high at $4,350. And now he has again increased his savings in the second most capitalized cryptocurrency. Surprisingly, it was the positive dynamics of... bitcoin that pushed him to buy Ethereum. “I went back to Ethereum because bitcoin held above $30,000,” he claimed. And he added, "I love Ethereum because people are really using it a lot more."

- Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego, who is one of the top three richest people in Mexico according to Forbes, said that when choosing an asset for the next 30 years, “would I never choose the stinking fiat”, and preferred bitcoin.
“Fiat is a fraud,” Pliego stated. “See: I started my career in 1981. The Mexican peso was then quoted against the dollar at a rate of 20 to 1. But after 10 years, the rate became 20,000 to 1. And that's just in Mexico. But look at Venezuela, Argentina or Zimbabwe. The numbers have grown so much that this has led to a violation of all proportions. Therefore, no pesos, no paper money!"
Salinas believes that bitcoin should be part of every investor's portfolio. 'It's an asset that has international value and is trading with incredible liquidity globally. That's enough for it to be part of every portfolio, period."
The key advantage of bitcoin, according to the billionaire, is its limited emission. For the same reason, he does not believe in Ethereum, explaining that unlimited emission leads to the depreciation of existing assets.

- One of the markets where the competition between bitcoin and gold is most pronounced is India - a country where people used to traditionally invest in the precious metal. It is believed that Indian households own more than 25,000 tons of gold, although bitcoin has recently entered the country as well. According to the analytical service Chainalysis, investments in cryptocurrency in the country have grown from about $200 million to almost $40 billion in the last year alone, which means an increase of 20,000%. This is despite numerous efforts by the country's government and central bank to prevent, if not totally ban, investment in cryptocurrencies.
There are now more than 15 million crypto investors in the country, which is less than 23 million in the US, but more than 2.3 million in the UK. However, for a country with a population of over 1.3 billion people, the share of those involved in cryptocurrency transactions is still very low: 1.15%.
Of the 15 million named, the largest proportion are millennials under 35, who are less attracted to gold than previous generations, according to the World Gold Council.

- Veteran of the crypto market and one of the largest BTC holders, 41-year-old Mircea Popescu died in Costa Rica. He was also known as a blogger and self-proclaimed "greatest erotic writer in the world."
According to local media reports, Popescu was carried off by a current near the Tramonto Hotel when he went to swim in a prohibited place. His body was found on the beach on the morning of June 23. A medical team arrived at the scene, but resuscitation measures did not bring results.
Remembering Popescu, members of the crypto community call him "the evil genius of bitcoin maximalism", "the father of toxicity around bitcoin" and "sleeping giant". He was one of bitcoin's most conservative supporters and objected to any changes to the cryptocurrency protocol. “The guy had enough bitcoins to do whatever he wanted in life. Popescu could drop bitcoin almost to zero at one moment and hold the price for some time. He aroused little sympathy but laid the foundations for what we have today."
Some believe that by naming 1 million coins, Popescu exaggerated the number of bitcoins at his disposal. The real figure could be between 50,000 and 300,000 BTC. However, it made him one of the largest cryptocurrency holders in the world. Now this huge number of bitcoins has disappeared, apparently forever.

- Paraguay could become the next country after El Salvador to recognize bitcoin as legal tender. The corresponding bill will be presented in the country's parliament on July 14. According to a representative of the Congress, the initiative has already found support among "a number of very important enterprises in Paraguay."
On June 22, Paraguay's Universidad Americana University announced that it will accept Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple as tuition fees from August 2021.

- Jason Urban, Co-Head of Trading at Galaxy Digital, noted that negative news should exhaust itself by autumn, and bitcoin will continue its upward movement. He believes quotes could reach $70,000 by the end of this year. “We will soon see an update to the historical high,” he declared.
Urban believes that many institutional investors have not yet entered the crypto market due to regulatory uncertainty, however, they will sooner or later, creating an increased demand for BTC.

- Sam Trabucco, a trader at Alameda Research, also believes that the bitcoin market is already preparing for an upswing. In his opinion, a few negative news that have been released recently have no fundamental value and is only aimed at creating short-term negative sentiments.
Trabucco writes that negative news from China, Elon Musk's concerns about the environmental friendliness of bitcoin and the likely insolvency of MicroStrategy associated with the fall in BTC are causing an overly negative reaction. Previously, the price reacted in the same way to the Tesla purchase for BTC and Musk's optimistic messages. “But none of this news in any way affects the value of bitcoin and how people should evaluate it in the medium term,” the expert said.
Trabucco also added that it was all exacerbated by a bloated derivatives market and massive liquidations of positions. “No one wanted to sell at $30,000, however many were forced to do so. This means that the $30,000 price should be taken as a buy signal,” he said.


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Stan NorFX

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NordFX Lottery: First $20,000 Found Their Owners

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The first draw of the Super Lottery by brokerage NordFX took place on July 1, 2021. It was online, and anyone could follow the prize draw on the Internet. The video of the draw has been posted on the company's official YouTube channel.

The first $20,000 of the total prize pool of $100,000 were raffled off among NordFX clients. The winners are the holders of the following lottery tickets:

Prize amount $2500
No. of the winning ticket: 2595, 1183
Prize amount $1000
No. of the winning ticket: 0455, 3243, 2611, 3282, 4826
Prize amount $500
No. of the winning ticket: 3142, 1763, 4176, 3784, 2302, 3465, 5793, 2150, 4434, 2656, 1322, 4204, 3436, 4681, 2296, 1443, 4172, 3834, 1362, 4574.

According to the rules, the prize funds can be used by the lottery winner in trading or withdrawn from the account at any time by any of the available methods and without any restrictions.

The next draws will take place on October 01, 2021 (prize fund $20,000) and January 03, 2022 (prize fund $60,000).

Everyone can take part in the lottery and get chances of winning one or even more cash prizes, including the $20,000 super prize. Terms of participation are available on the NordFX website.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 

Stan NorFX

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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 05 - 09, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the previous week, the majority of analysts (60%), supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators, voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the EUR/USD pair to the June 18 low of 1.1845. The forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and the pair reached the set goal as early as Wednesday, June 30. But the dollar did not stop there and its DXY index renewed a three-month high on Friday, July 02, peaking at 92.699.
The growth of the American currency was due to the expectation that the pace of the US economic recovery will force the Fed to accelerate plans to reduce the programs of financial and credit stimulus (QE). And the market expected the strong labor market data, which was due out in mid-Friday, to push the dollar even higher.
According to the Department of Labor, the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sectors in the United States (Nonfarm Payrolls) actually turned out to be higher than the forecast by 150 thousand: 850 thousand instead of the estimated 700 thousand. The EUR/USD pair fell further downward, however, having reached the level of 1.1805, it unexpectedly turned around and soared to the north no less rapidly. The reason was the second published indicator: according to forecasts, the unemployment rate should have decreased from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%.
This result showed a weak recovery in the US labor market, investors' expectations regarding the imminent tightening of the Fed's monetary policy weakened, and this supported the risk sentiment. The Dow Jones index went up, and the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite renewed all-time highs once again. The DXY fell to 92.24 and EUR/USD closed the weekly session at 1.1863;

- GBP/USD. Concerns about the Delta COVID-19 strain are putting a lot of pressure on the pound sterling. Investors were not pleased with the data on the UK GDP for Q1, which turned out to be worse than the forecast (minus 1.6% versus minus 1.5%).
With regard to inflation, in his speech on Thursday July 1, the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey stressed that its high rates are temporary, as the British economy returns to the average and slows down the growth rate. This announcement pushed the pound further down. And if not for the disappointing US unemployment data, the GBP/USD pair would probably have tested the 1.3670 support. In reality, its fall was stopped at the 1.3730 horizon, and the last chord of the week sounded 100 points higher, at 1.3830;

- USD / JPY. the Bank of Japan published the value of the Tankan index for Q2 of this year on July 1. This index reflects the general business conditions for large companies in the country. A reading above 0 is considered to be a positive factor for the JPY, while a reading below 0 is considered negative. The index was projected to rise to 15, up from 5 in Q1 2021. Tankan did grow, though not to 15, but to 14. But neither its growth nor its value have had virtually any impact on the USD/JPY pair. As it was not strongly influenced by the decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds. The pair basically just copied what was happening with the DXY index. The dollar grew, and the pair also grew, breaking through the important resistance of 111.00 and finding itself at a height of 111.65 - very close with the high of March 24, 2020 - 111.70. Then the dollar collapsed, and so did the pair. True, it was able to stay above the horizon at 111.00 and finished at 111.05;

- cryptocurrencies. The forecast, which was given seven days ago, said that "with a high degree of probability, the fight between bulls and bears in the $30,000 area will continue." This is exactly what happened. The local bottom was reached at $30,200. Then the bulls managed to raise the BTC/USD pair to $36,590, but they could not keep it above the psychologically important level of $36,000, and the price of bitcoin dropped to $32,700 on Friday, July 02.
The lack of significant victories on both sides was facilitated by a fairly calm news background. We list just a few, more or less noticeable, of these news stories:
- There was a rumor that Paraguay could be the next country after El Salvador to recognize bitcoin as legal tender. However, then it was clarified that the purpose of the bill, which will be presented to Parliament on July 14, is completely different and is to regulate digital assets, and not to turn bitcoin into a national currency.
- The panic after the mining ban in China is gradually subsiding. In China itself, authorities have banned energy companies from supplying electricity to miners. In theory, this should have brought the hash rate down to zero in the country. However, some enterprising crypto miners are trying to continue their business using small private hydroelectric power plants. Another part of mining companies migrates - some to the USA, and some, for example, to Kazakhstan. Against this background, the President of Kazakhstan signed a law on the introduction of additional payments for electricity when mining cryptocurrencies, which may negatively affect the country's attractiveness for this industry.
- Ark Invest, managed by Katie Wood, is the ninth company to apply to the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
- According to the analytical service Chainalysis, the number of crypto investors in India has exceeded 15 million, and investments in cryptocurrency over the past year have grown from about $200 million to almost $40 billion, which means an increase of 20,000%.
- A veteran of the crypto market and one of the largest holders of BTC, 41-year-old Mircea Popescu, drowned in Costa Rica. He was known as a blogger and self-proclaimed "greatest erotic writer in the world." The crypto community called him "the evil genius of bitcoin maximalism", "the father of toxicity around bitcoin" and the "sleeping giant" who "could at one moment bring bitcoin to virtually zero and hold the price for some time." The actual number of coins owned by Popescu could be between 50,000 and 300,000 BTC, making him one of the largest cryptocurrency holders in the world. Now, this huge number of bitcoins seems to have disappeared forever.
And a few words about Elon Musk (we can't do without him!). Perhaps the billionaire has already played enough with bitcoin and Dogecoin, and now he has a new hobby - BabyDoge. After his tweet with three repeated unpretentious text "Baby Doge, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, ...", the value of this coin has increased by 500% in two weeks, and the trading volume has tripled. It is still unknown whether Musk himself made money on such a "pump".
As for the crypto market as a whole, unlike BabyDoge, its capitalization increased very slightly over the week: from $1.336 trillion to $1.381 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell from 47.05% to 45.52%, and the BTC Crypto Fear & Greed Index found itself in the Extreme Fear zone once again, at around 21 points.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The data on inflation and consumer markets in Germany and the Eurozone are not the most encouraging. Tourism revenues are falling, due to the Delta strain of the coronavirus and the divorce from the UK. In general, optimism about the recovery of the European economy is declining.
As for the United States, Congress has raised its forecasts for 2021 both on the growth of inflation - from 1.7% to 2.8%, and on the growth of the country's economy - from 3.7% to 7.4%. The IMF expects US GDP to grow by 7%, the fastest pace since 1984. As for the interest rate, according to the IMF experts, the Fed will raise it either at the end of 2022 or at the beginning of 2023. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker suggests starting to wind down the Asset Purchase Program (QE) as early as this year. And the faster that happens, the sooner the interest rate will be raised in 2022.
The Fed is constantly saying that it will raise the interest rate in full employment only. And if the labour market data released on July 02 were positive, it would have sent EUR/USD to the March 31 lows of 1.1700. However, instead of falling, the unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 5.9% in June, casting doubt on the continuation of the pair's downtrend.
Before the release of unemployment data, 70% of experts sided with the bears. Now the situation has changed, and 65% expect the pair to grow during July. The same applies to indicators: 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1 were colored red until mid-Friday July 02. But by the time the markets closed, the color scheme on H4 had changed: some of the indicators turned into neutral grey, and some even turned green.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1975, then 1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge for July is to update the May 25 high of 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The supports on the way to this target are 1.1845, 1.1800 and 1.1765.
The economic calendar for the coming week looks rather modest. It highlights Tuesday, July 06, when the Eurozone retail sales data and the ISM business activity index for the US services sector will be released;

- GBP/USD. There is no unity in inflation estimates in the ranks of the Bank of England's senior management. Suffice to listen to the soothing statements of the head of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, and the exact opposite - of the chief economist Andy Haldane, who is greatly alarmed by inflationary risks. We have already said in the first part of the review that thanks to Bailey's position, the pound came under pressure, and its quotes were “saved” from a further fall by the increased unemployment in the US. Otherwise, the pound would have continued its decline as a pair with the euro.
The GBP/USD forecast, as with EUR/USD, changed the vector dramatically at the very end of the past week as well. If before the US unemployment data was published, 60% of analysts had expected the UK currency to weaken further, 75% vote for the growth of the pair during the month. Technical analysis readings on H4 have also mixed, although 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 are still facing south. Graphic analysis on H4 indicates the pair's growth to 1.3900, and D1 shows its movement during the week in the range 1.3730-1.3870.
Support levels are 1.3800, 1.3730 and 1.3670, resistance - 1.3900, 1.4000, then the zone 1.4100-1.4165;
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- USD/JPY. The indicators for this pair are almost no different from those of their EUR/USD and GBP/USD counterparts. (Only in this case, their color changes from red to green). But the opinion of experts here turned out to be more constant, it just changed quantitatively: if 55% had voted for the strengthening of the yen and the decrease in the pair, then their number increased to 75%. Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a sideways movement of the pair along the support/resistance line of 111.00, on D1 it forecasts first a decline to 110.40, and then an increase above the high of March 24, 2020, at 111.70.
The targets of the bears are the zones 109.75-110.100 and 108.00-108.55. The bulls, subject to taking the height of 111.70, will seek to raise the pair to the high of February 20, 2020, 112.25;

- cryptocurrencies. According to a report by cryptanalytics company Glassnode, institutional demand for bitcoin is declining. One of the main factors supporting the upward trend in BTC was the influx of institutional investments into the GBTC Grayscale trust fund. Glassnode analysts note that declining GBTC premiums, net outflows from ETFs, and stagnating Coinbase balance sheets indicate that demand for the main cryptocurrency from institutions remains weak.
Despite this, many of the experts are optimistic about the current situation. According to JPMorgan analysts, "the cryptocurrency market is not yet quite healthy; however, the healing process has already begun." Although bitcoin is still far from highs, cryptocurrencies are gradually recovering from the collapse. For example, the lack of activity in the bitcoin futures market is described by JPMorgan strategists as a “positive factor.” However, the short-term outlook, in their opinion, is "extremely difficult."
Sam Trabucco, a trader at Alameda Research, also believes that the bitcoin market is already preparing for an upswing. In his opinion, a number of negative news that have been released recently have no fundamental value and is only aimed at creating short-term negative sentiments.
Trabucco writes that negative news from China, Elon Musk's concerns about the environmental friendliness of bitcoin and the likely insolvency of MicroStrategy associated with the fall in BTC are causing an overly negative reaction. Previously, the price reacted in the same way to the Tesla purchase for BTC and Musk's optimistic messages. “But none of this news in any way affects the value of bitcoin and how people should evaluate it in the medium term,” the expert said. And he adds that the $30,000 price should be taken as a buy signal.
Jason Urban, co-head of trading at Galaxy Digital, is waiting for the market to turn north as well. He notes that negative news should exhaust itself by autumn, and bitcoin will continue its upward movement. Urban believes that many institutional investors have not yet entered the crypto market due to regulatory uncertainty, however, they will sooner or later, creating an increased demand for BTC. According to the specialist, “we will soon see an update to the historical high,” and the quotes could reach $70,000 by the end of this year.
Former Gyft CEO and Civic project co-founder Vinny Lingham also spoke out. He was once nicknamed "the oracle" for the fact that he was able to predict the future value of the oldest cryptocurrency.
Lingham's predictions for BTC are not always optimistic, and his calls are traditionally more conservative than those of people with fantastic ideas. However, like many others, he believes there is a possibility that BTC could hit six figures as early as this year. Oracle wrote in his Twitter account that if the price continues to hold at $30,000, then we will probably see bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of the year.
Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego, who is one of the top three richest people in Mexico according to Forbes, said that when choosing an asset for the next 30 years, “would I never choose the stinking fiat”, and preferred bitcoin. Salinas believes that bitcoin should be part of every investor's portfolio. “This is an asset that has international value and is traded globally with incredible liquidity. That's enough for it to be part of every portfolio, period."
The key advantage of bitcoin, according to the billionaire, is its limited emission. For the same reason, he does not believe in Ethereum, explaining that unlimited emission leads to the depreciation of existing assets.
Former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of NBC's Mad Money show Jim Kramer is of the opposite opinion. He has again increased his savings in the second most capitalized cryptocurrency. Surprisingly, it was the positive dynamics of... bitcoin that pushed him to buy Ethereum. “I went back to Ethereum because bitcoin held above $30,000,” he claimed. And he explained that he gave preference to this altcoin, since Ethereum is much more useful for people than the main cryptocurrency.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
 

Stan NorFX

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281 1
CryptoNews of the Week

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- CNBC conducted a Wall Street survey of nearly 100 investment directors, financial strategists and portfolio managers. 44% of them believe that bitcoin will close 2021 with a price below $30,000. 25% of respondents believe that the rate of the first cryptocurrency at that time will reach $40,000. A similar proportion of respondents chose the $50,000 level, with only 6% predicting a rise to $60,000.
Discussing the results, the channel's hosts agreed with the short-term outlook in general, noting that even $30,000 for the end of the year would alleviate many of the concerns of market participants by setting a long-term bottom.

- More than a thousand companies were affected by the cyberattack on the American software developer Kaseya. The operators of the REvil ransomware virus, who are being linked to Russia, are allegedly behind the hack. The company initially said that only a small group of its customers were affected by the hackers' actions, but the scale of those affected by the attack was increasing as the investigation progressed.
Cybersecurity experts assumed immediately that the hacker group REvil was behind the attack. Huntress Labs later discovered a $70 million ransom demand in bitcoin on a darknet hacker site for decrypting the files of all victims.
REvil (also known as Sodinokibi) is often associated with Russia due to the fact that they do not attack Russian organizations or enterprises in the countries of the former USSR and often publish messages in Russian.

- JP Morgan Bank analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in an interview with CNBC that investors have begun to shift funds from other digital assets to bitcoin over the past few weeks. This reversed the trend that began in April, when there was a large inflow of funds into altcoins. "The flow of funds, even to Ethereum, has noticeably decreased over the past two to three weeks, while the outflow of funds from bitcoins has slowed down." This could mean that the bear market for bitcoin is likely coming to an end.
JP Morgan believes that the value of bitcoin itself is more important for institutional investors than its volatility. And further integration of the world of institutional companies into bitcoin will lead to a “normalization” of cryptocurrency No.1 volatility, according to Panigirtsoglou.

- The Crypto Head cryptocurrency platform rated the United States as the country most prepared for the massive introduction of digital assets. When compiling a ranking of 76 countries, the platform's specialists took into account: number of thematic Google searches, number of cryptocurrency ATMs installed, the level of legalization of cryptocurrencies by tax and financial laws.
The USA received a score of 7.13 points out of possible 10. Cyprus and Singapore are next in the ranking with 6.47 and 6.3 respectively. Rounding out the top five are Hong Kong and the United Kingdom.

- Brazil's Federal Police liquidated Bitcoin Banco Group, whose damage for 7,000 citizens exceeded $300 million. Its leader, Claudio Oliveira, known as the "King of Bitcoin", has been arrested.
During the 2017 bull market, the Bitcoin Banco Group promised clients “incredible profits”. In late 2019, the firm reported the disappearance of 7000 BTC and filed for court recovery. This document involves signing an agreement with the authorities to reorganize activities to avoid bankruptcy. However, the investigation, which lasted three years, revealed that employees of the organization had been systematically transferring client funds into Oliveira's personal accounts.

- Bitcoin.org, a popular information resource, allegedly created by Satoshi Nakamoto himself, underwent an "absolutely massive DDoS attack." The hackers who attacked the site are known to have demanded a ransom in bitcoins. Now Bitcoin.org is already operating normally. However, it is not known how the site operator reacted to the blackmail, or whether it paid the ransom to cyber criminals.

- Popular cryptanalyst PlanB (609,000 subscribers) outlined the worst scenario of the main cryptocurrency movement. Using a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model, he concluded that the next six months would either prove that the model worked for bitcoin, or it would prove it useless.
S2F has traditionally been applied to commodities such as gold and silver. PlanB used it to predict if bitcoin could surpass the $288,000 level. And now he has reported that BTC's bearish price move defies his calculations. According to PlanB, the worst-case scenario for bitcoin in July is closing the month at $28,000. In August, this is where the worst-case closing scenario could be $47,000. According to him, the next six months will determine whether or not BTC will actually hit the six-digit range by the end of the bull race.

- Morning Brew invited subscribers to share professional fears via Twitter. The answers had to be only four words. "Elon Musk tweeted something," - this is the fear of crypto investors, described by manager Devin Marty, hinting that the statements of the billionaire have a strong impact on the quotes of digital assets. These four words have received the most likes. At the same time, some users felt that if messages on Twitter increase the volatility of an asset, then this asset cannot be considered "serious".
The fact that Elon Musk's remarks can move the market is confirmed by a survey conducted by Investing.com. According to its results, one in five respondents who sold bitcoin in May 2021 associated this decision with Musk's criticism of the cryptocurrency.

- US Senator Cynthia Lummis wants Americans to use cryptocurrency to diversify their retirement savings. Ms. Legislator is concerned about 100%-dollar retirement plans and encourages people to use bitcoins to avoid "keeping all their eggs in one basket." Cynthia Lummis herself now has about 5 BTC and when she bought the cryptocurrency for the first time, the price was $330.
The senator suggested that US pension funds also diversify their long-term portfolios with bitcoin, calling it a "good store of value." Although she personally prefers BTC, she believes that Ethereum is also a promising project.

- A number of analysts have interpreted the current situation in the bitcoin market as a phase of accumulation according to the Wyckoff method, which means that the current low of $28,800 is the minimum of the correction (“Spring”), and a stepwise increase should be expected in the future.
Wyckoff's scheme will be confirmed if bitcoin fixes above the $36,000 resistance. In addition, some experts attach particular importance to overcoming the downtrend of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart.
Michael van de Poppe, trader of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, also praised the developments in the crypto market. He noted that the consolidation continues and urged traders to be patient and wait for a breakout from the current price range. It is quite obvious that the famous trader expects a break up.

- Michael Novogratz, founder of the Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank, believes in the potential of Ethereum. He stated in a recent interview that this altcoin is capable of overshadowing bitcoin. Although BTC has become popular as a store of value, the ETH platform has the potential to become the foundation for the upcoming Web 3.0. However, there is one issue: Ethereum is facing stiff competition from Solana, Terra and other ecosystems in this direction.
As for the clients of his own bank, Novogratz sees that there is no real worries about the collapse of the crypto industry, as investors understand that changes in the financial world are just beginning.

- Insiders are reporting that the George Soros Foundation, formerly known as the adversary of cryptocurrencies, will enter this market. New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), the billionaire-sponsored institutional investor platform, has previously announced it is opening up access to cryptocurrency to clients of hundreds of US banks. And now the media, citing two insider sources, are spreading information that Dawn Fitzpatrick, the investment director of Soros Fund Management, after studying the market, allowed managers to trade cryptocurrency. Fitzpatrick's team also intends to invest in companies working with blockchain technology. However, there has been no official statement on this matter yet.


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Stan NorFX

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June 2021 Results: Three NordFX Traders' Profits Exceed $445,000

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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in June 2021. The services of social trading, CopyTrading and PAMM, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

By a huge margin, the best result of the month was shown by a client from India, account No. 1566XXX, with a profit of 329,320 USD, which was obtained thanks to numerous transactions in a variety of pairs: GBP/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD, GBP/CHF, etc.

The second ranking of most successful traders was a NordFX client from Vietnam, account No.1416XXX, who used some of the most popular instruments, bitcoin (BTC/USD) and gold (XAU/USD) and generated revenue of 74,865 USD. It should be noted that the profit of this trader looked very impressive in May as well, 53,207 USD.

The TOP-3 of June is closed by a trader from China (account No.1397XXX) with a result of 41,862 USD, obtained through operations with the British pound (GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs).

In the CopyTrading service, a young account Fire_1 can be noted among signal providers. It has existed for only a month, and the profit on it has been 414% during this time with a maximum drawdown of 55%.

Those investors who prefer less aggressive, but also less risky trading can pay attention to the PAMM account KennyFXPRO-The _Multi_3000_EA. It has been working for 160 days, and it has shown an increase of 28% during this period with a drawdown of less than 15%. The profit is certainly not that great, but it is still many times higher than the interest on bank deposits.

Commissions of NordFX IB partners in June were as follows:
- the largest commission, 32,079 USD, was credited to a partner from India, account No.1504ХXХ;
- next is a partner from Vietnam, account No.1401ХХХ, who received 7,959 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from China, account No. 1522ХХХ, who received 5,899 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


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Stan NorFX

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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 12 - 16, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As predicted by the majority (65%) of experts, the dollar continued to weaken at the beginning of the week, and the EUR/USD pair went up. Disappointing data from the US labour market, released on July 02, affected the dollar. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate was supposed to fall from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%.
The US business activity indicators released on Tuesday July 6 saved the American currency from further falling. And although the ISM index in the services sector fell to 60.1 in June (from a record 64 in May), this did not frighten investors, as a result above 50 is seen as positive and is in favor of the dollar. This is exactly what happened: having reached the height of 1.1895, the EUR/USD pair reversed and went down, reaching the local level at 1.1780 on Wednesday, July 07.
The minutes of the June meeting of the FRS, published at the end of the same day, showed that although curtailing financial and credit stimulation (QE) programs was discussed at it, it did not come to specific decisions. The regulator will still not rush to tighten monetary policy, relying only on inflation indicators, and will wait for the full recovery of the labor market. And on that end, as mentioned above, the indicators are not particularly optimistic at the moment, indicating a slowdown in the American economy.
The next day, Thursday, July 8, was the day when the euro was able to win back losses, not only because of the dovish position of the Fed, but also thanks to the publication of a new inflation target by the European Central Bank. Previously, the goal was to keep inflation “below but near 2%.” Now, the official target level allows for exceeding or lagging the indicator at certain points in time. At the same time, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde stressed that her bank will not copy the new strategy of the Fed and will not specifically stimulate the growth of consumer prices in order to reach the average.
The growth of the European currency and a decrease in global risk appetite caused by the spread of the delta strains of coronavirus helped. Carry traders began to close positions open on high-interest currencies in developing countries and return to fund currencies such as EUR and JPY.
As a result of all the fluctuations and changes in trends, the five-day total can be considered close to zero, the EUR/USD pair ended the weekly session almost the same as it started ¬at 1.1877;

- GBP/USD. The dynamics of the British pound against the dollar last week followed the movements of its European counterpart. The prediction given by the graphical analysis proved to be the most accurate, it indicated first the GBP/USD growth to 1.3870-1.3900 and then its lateral movement in 1.3730-1.3870 channel. In reality, adjusted for a few points, that's what happened. As for the last chord of the week, it sounded near the upper boundary of the channel, at 1.3890;

- USD/JPY. The competition over which currency is the best refuge from financial storms continues. And the yen won it with a clear advantage last week, having outperformed the dollar by 100 points. As predicted by the vast majority of experts (75%), the pair moved purposefully south for the entire first half of the week, recording a local low on the horizon of 109.50 on July 07. At one point, thanks to flight from stock market of investors and falling US government bond yields, its superiority was as much as 150 points.
Then, against the backdrop of the recovery in the yield of US Treasuries to 1.3433%, the dollar was able to win back some losses, and the pair finished at 110.10;

- cryptocurrencies. A poll by Morning Brew found that what retail crypto investors fear most is... Elon Musk's tweets. This was confirmed by another survey conducted by Investing.com. According to its results, one in five respondents who sold bitcoin in May 2021 associated this decision with Musk's criticism of the cryptocurrency.
To be sure, his tweets, like bans on cryptocurrency transactions in China, triggered the collapse, which saw bitcoin collapse from a height of $64,600 to $30,000. However, many experts believe that the main reason for what happened is the use of leverage in the crypto market, otherwise margin trading, which allows traders to open large positions with little funds. And it was the avalanche-like closing of such positions that led to a drop in quotations and a decrease of more than 45% in the total capitalization of the crypto market.
As for the Chinese authorities, they continue to squeeze virtual currencies out of the country. The People's Bank of China said bitcoin and stablecoins pose a threat to financial security and social stability and has banned the provision of a range of services to companies associated with the market, including software development, rental of premises and marketing services.
At the moment, large capital is watching the migration process of miners from the PRC. And the country in which they will resume their work is of particular interest. If it's going to be the US, it's likely to bolster the industry's image in the eyes of institutionals. Especially since Crypto Head estimates that of 76 countries, the United States is the best prepared for mass adoption of digital assets. However, it is believed that miners fear the US authorities no less than the Chinese. And therefore, they can choose the countries of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Mongolia, etc., where there are territories with a cold climate and access to relatively cheap energy resources. Although not everything is so smooth here. For example, as we wrote, Kazakhstan had already passed a law on additional energy charges for cryptocurrencies in anticipation of miners.
Note that due to the bans introduced in China, the hash rate in the blockchain fell by almost 50%. This led to major changes in the complexity of the algorithm, and an equally serious increase in the profits of the remaining miners. They are now earning income, about the same as at BTC's $60,000 cost.
As for investors, they have been watching the main cryptocurrency trying to rise above the resistance of $ 36,000 for the third week. Another attempt by the bulls last week was unsuccessful again, and the BTC/USD pair was trading in the $32,500-33,500 zone by Friday night July 09.
The total crypto market capitalization has changed insignificantly over the week: from $1.358 trillion to $1.370 trillion. That being said, there has been a small flow of funds from altcoins (including ethereum) to bitcoin over the past few days. JP Morgan’s analyst Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou also noted this in an interview with CNBC. This move has reversed a trend that began in April when there was a large inflow of funds into altcoins and could mean that the bear market for BTC is coming to an end. But it is clearly premature to talk about any serious progress. This is confirmed by quotes, capitalization volumes, and readings of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is still in the Extreme Fear zone, having dropped by 1 point over the week, from 21 to 20.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It seems that the epidemiological situation associated with the spread of new strains of COVID-19 is coming to the fore again. Risk cravings are falling and investors, fearing a repeat of last year's situation, are once again beginning to gravitate towards protective assets. Stock indices - Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S & P500 - stopped growing, going into a sideways trend. And impressive black candles appeared on their daily charts. In parallel, demand for U.S. Treasury liabilities rose: the yield on Treasuries fell to a new multi-month low, to 1.25%.
Despite the worsening epidemiological situation, the European Commission has raised its forecast for GDP growth in the Eurozone from 4.3% to 4.8% in 2021. The growth of economic activity should be influenced by the softening of quarantine measures (if it continues, of course) and the mass vaccination of the population. GDP is expected to return to pre-crisis levels as early as Q4 of this year, a quarter earlier than forecast, and this could prompt the ECB to start winding down QE programmes more quickly.
But if European inflation and GDP are growing by 2% and 4.8%, then the growth of similar American indicators is 5% and 7%, respectively. And who will start tightening monetary policy earlier, we wonder? Yes, the Fed has taken a wait-and-see, almost dovish position. But there are not so many hawks among the ECB's leadership, and its current position is more like a compromise between supporters of monetary expansion and their opponents.
Experts’ opinion on the EUR/USD pair's immediate future can also be considered a compromise, with 40% in favour of growth, 45% in favour of falling, and 15% for continuing the side trend. At the same time, the number of supporters of a weaker dollar and a stronger euro rises to 60% when you move to the forecast by the end of summer.
Among the trend indicators and oscillators on H4, 70% are colored green, 30% - red. On D1, the situation is different: 70% of trend indicators look down, and the oscillator readings are a mixture of red, green and neutral gray. Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a sideways trend within the 1.1780-1.1900 channel.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1900, then 1.1975, 1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge for July is to update the May 25 high of 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The supports on the way to this target are 1.1845, 1.1800 and 1.1780.
The following events can be noted in the economic calendar for the coming week. German and US consumer market data will be released on Tuesday July 13. US Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and another set of US consumer data, including retail sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, will close the working week on Friday July 16;

- GBP/USD. The UK's GDP, trade and industrial production figures did not reach forecast values. And this will put some pressure on the pound. But despite this, 60% of analysts vote on the GBP/USD pair's move north.
It finished the last week, rising to the 1.3900 zone. The mid-term chart clearly shows that this level is in the central part of the 1.3700-1.4000 channel. Therefore, the pair has many chances to continue the upward movement to its upper border.
The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the British currency will not be able to break through the resistance of 1.3900 so far, including due to a new wave of COVID-19 spread in the country.
The indicators' readings are almost completely consistent with their readings for EUR/USD. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be known on Wednesday 14 July, which is projected to rise from 2.1% to 2.2 per cent. And the next day, a portion of data on the state of the UK labour market, including claims for unemployment benefits and the country's unemployment rate, awaits us. Recall that a rise in the same indicator in the US hit the dollar on the first Friday in July. For the United Kingdom, it is expected to remain flat at 4.7%;
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- USD/JPY. It is almost impossible to bring the indicator readings for this pair to any denominator, neither on H4, nor on D1. Will it continue its upward trend, which began in early January? Will it be able to gain a foothold above 111.00? A new impetus to this movement was given after the correction on April 26, and only now the first hint of a trend breakdown and a breakout of the lower border of this channel has appeared.
We spoke above about the reasons for the strengthening of the yen last week. However, it is not possible to catch investor sentiment, as well as indicators, for the week ahead. The experts' voices are almost equally divided: 30% side with the bulls, 40% side with the bears, and 40% just shrug their shoulders.
Graphical analysis on D1 first indicates a sideways movement of the USD/JPY pair in the 109.50-111.00 trading range, and only then does it rule out the continuation of the uptrend and its breakout to 112.00.
The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and the traditional subsequent press conference of its management may be of some interest the week ahead. Both of these events are scheduled for Friday July 16. And most likely, there will be no surprises for us, and Japan will once again reaffirm its title as an ultra-quiet haven for investors;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's daily trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since early 2021, according to analyst firm Arcane Research. The BTC/USD pair is trying unsuccessfully to climb above the $36,000 horizon for the third week in a row. The fact that it has been trading near local lows since the end of May, of course, scares investors. A dip below the current low of $28,800 could lead to another massive sell-off and a new crypto winter.
At the same time, a number of experts interpret the current situation as a phase of accumulation according to the Wyckoff method. This means that $28,800 is the minimum of the correction (“Spring”), and a stepwise growth should be expected in the future. Wyckoff's scheme will be confirmed if bitcoin fixes above the $36,000 resistance.
- Popular cryptanalyst PlanB (609,000 subscribers) outlined the worst scenario of the main cryptocurrency movement. This expert is known for applying to bitcoin the stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model, previously traditionally applied to commodities such as gold and silver. According to PlanB's calculations, the worst-case scenario for bitcoin in July is closing the month at $28,000. In August, this is where the worst-case closing scenario could be $47,000. According to him, the next six months will determine whether, by the end of the bull race, BTC will actually be able to reach the six-digit range and, as a result, reach the $288,000 mark.
It should be noted that the forecasts of the institutions look much more modest. For example, CNBC conducted a Wall Street survey of nearly 100 investment directors, financial strategists and portfolio managers. 44% of them believe that bitcoin will close 2021 with a price below $30,000. 25% of respondents believe that the rate of the first cryptocurrency at that time will reach $40,000. A similar proportion of respondents chose the $50,000 level, with only 6% predicting a rise to $60,000.
Discussing the results, the channel's hosts agreed with the short-term outlook in general, noting that even $30,000 for the end of the year would alleviate many of the concerns of market participants by setting a long-term bottom.
While assessing altcoin prospects, many experts, including Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank founder Michael Novogratz, say that Ethereum may well weaken bitcoin in the future and become the foundation for pricing in the market. BTC became popular as a means of saving. But if you sum up the number of projects and directions working on the ETH blockchain, the advantage of Ethereum becomes obvious. Stablecoins, De-Fi, and NFT tokens work on its blockchain. The ETH platform has the potential to become the foundation for the upcoming Web 3.0. However, there is one issue: Ethereum is facing stiff competition from Solana, Terra and other ecosystems in this direction.
Experts from Goldman Sachs, one of the largest investment banks, also believe that today ethereum is the cryptocurrency with the highest real use potential that can overtake bitcoin. But at the same time, the bank's experts are also confident that neither bitcoin, nor ethereum, nor any other cryptocurrency will overtake gold in popularity in the near future. Because of its high volatility, digital assets cannot be accepted as a safe haven by investors, and therefore lose out in direct competition with this precious metal.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NorFX

Well-known member
281 1
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Increased regulatory oversight could benefit the cryptocurrency industry, said Jihan Wu, billionaire and co-founder of Bitmain. In his view, regulation “cuts out attackers” and improves the industry's reputation in a rapid growth environment.
He also suggested that more active interaction of representatives of the cryptocurrency industry with the authorities could bring positive results as well. The billionaire cited Singapore, where one of his companies is based, as an example. According to Wu, the government of this country is taking a “reasonable” stance on digital assets, allowing Singapore to become a “hub for crypto innovation”.

- Bitcoin ransomware received more than $33 million in cryptocurrency in 2021, according to Ransomwhere data. 2This cybersecurity-focused service collects ransomware attacks and tracks payments from affected users to ransomware.
According to Ransomwhere, REvil (Sodinokibi) from the eponymous hacker group has become the largest ransomware in 2021. Its victims paid the extortionists over $11.3 million. In second place is Netwalker (Mailto), whose developers have received more than $5.7 million. The amount of cumulative damage could grow significantly if the REvil group receives the $70 million they demanded from victims in early July.

- Galaxy Digital cryptobank founder Mike Novogratz said in a commentary on CNBC that the US cryptocurrency community has taken a leading position in the bear market, whose origins lie in Asia. “We see Asia selling it [bitcoin] and the US buying it back. China has declared war on the crypto industry as part of the broader Cold War we are getting into."
Earlier, Novogratz called the exodus of miners from China a “big plus,” and said that the PRC's repressive policies would not prevent the development of the crypto industry.

- Albany Engineering Corp's hydroelectric plant, located in New York, USA, provides a profit margin on bitcoin mining three times higher than on the sale of energy. The hydroelectric power station was built in 1897, almost 125 years ago, and it is one of the oldest operating renewable energy facilities.
According to the top managers of the plant, a years-long litigation with the distribution network regarding tariffs has forced the company to consider alternative sources of revenue. True, the management doubts the long-term potential of the cryptocurrency, so translates coins into dollars immediately as they come in.

- As a result of an operation carried out by the New Zealand police, attackers... stole $45,000 worth of cryptocurrency from its bitcoin wallet. According to the New Zealand Herald, law enforcement officers conducted an online investigation into money laundering but fell victim to cyber scams themselves as a result.
The cryptocurrency was acquired in 2020 and was intended for “controlled purchasing”. But something went wrong, and the police lost control over the course of this special operation. Two internal investigations have been conducted into the theft, but no breaches of standard procedures have been identified.

- Legendary investor Bill Miller, in an interview with Market Insider, called bitcoin the best asset for protecting against inflation. The main cryptocurrency emerged in response to the 2008 crisis to be free from government control and manipulation, Miller explained. Also, the investor agrees with the view that bitcoin is digital gold because it is more convenient to use than any precious metal. As for the high volatility of digital assets, Miller believes this is the price that needs to be paid for the benefits.
Bill Miller's Miller Value Partners fund became one of the best in hedge fund history in 2019, with a return of 119%. The investor started purchasing bitcoins a few years ago, when they cost $300 per coin. Much of the fund's capital was earned from the growth in the value of the first cryptocurrency.

- On July 12, two transactions were recorded to transfer 740 bitcoins, which were motionless on the wallet of a certain holder since May 2012. It was reported by analytical service Whale Alert. Nine years ago, the value of these coins was $3.7k. (at $5 per BTC), and $26.1 million at the time of the transaction. That is, the value of digital coins has increased 7000 times over 9 years.
A similar move was recorded in February 2021. Then a large bitcoin holder transferred 100 coins to other addresses, which had been in his wallet without moving since June 2010. Their total cost was only about $8, and it reached $5 million at the time of the transaction: the price increased 622,000 times over 11 years.

- Bitcoin is ready for a major price movement, says analyst Will Clemente. He published a chart in his Twitter (136 thousand subscribers) with an indicator, which speaks of a possible imminent exit of the price of the first cryptocurrency from a narrow range.
As to the direction of the bitcoin rate, Clemente wrote that he was optimistic. According to the analyst, the market is now in the accumulation stage, and large players continue to actively buy the first cryptocurrency. "Whale" stocks increased by 65,429 BTC just last week. According to Clemente, there may be a shortage of supply of the main cryptocurrency in the near future, since large players often acquire assets for long-term purposes.
Clemente also stressed that the growth in the number of cryptocurrency users continues. Whereas their number usually decreases after the peak in prices. And this is also an argument in favor of the upcoming growth of BTC.

- Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak called bitcoin "the most amazing mathematical miracle," according to El Sol de Mexico. He also believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is more expensive than gold, since its emission is limited.
Wozniak has been a staunch supporter of bitcoin for years. He even stated in June 2018 that he sees BTC as the single world currency and believes in its longevity. However, the 70-year-old tech entrepreneur himself does not personally invest in bitcoin, and launched his own crypto project called Efforce a few months ago.

- Bitcoin has reached a level where it can resume the rally. This opinion is shared by Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone. According to him, the cryptocurrency is ready to resume growth towards $100,000. "Bitcoin is poised to return to a bullish trend in the second half of the year, and crude oil is ready to resume a bearish trend," McGlone wrote on Twitter.
The expert is confident that the growth of the cryptocurrency will "have serious macroeconomic consequences" this time. It is worth noting, however, that this is not the first time McGlone predicts a sharp rise in digital assets. For example, he announced in early February that the volatility of bitcoin can increase the gap between its price and gold "hundreds of times."

- According to Reuters, the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (South Korea) uses... faeces to generate electricity. Students are paid Ggool digital currency for each toilet visit.
One of the professors of the institute developed an environmentally friendly toilet BeeVi. It is connected to a laboratory that uses excreta to produce biogas. According to the scientist's calculations, a person produces about 500 grams of feces every day, which can be converted into 50 liters of methane. This amount of gas generates 0.5 kW of electricity, which is equal to the cost of a car to cover a distance of 1.2 km.
The science Initiative brings students up to 10 Ggool per day. The coin is accepted as payment in shops on campus. And the energy produced with the help of students powers a number of devices on the territory of the institute, including a boiler.

- British IT engineer James Howells threw a 7.5K BTC hard drive into the trash eight years ago, messing it up with another device. He then asked local authorities for permission to excavate a local dump to find his property, but was refused. Now Howells came up with a new search plan.
According to his calculations, he will need at least 12 months for the operation. This will be a "large-scale search," the engineer claims, which will not use "buckets and shovels" but the most modern technology. “We have a system with multiple conveyor belts, X-ray scanners and artificial intelligence that is trained to recognize objects that are similar in size and density to a hard drive,” Howells explained.
All of this will require a lot of financial investment, but one of the hedge funds has promised to cover all equipment costs in exchange for a share of bitcoins that can be found in the landfill. It is expected that the researchers will have to sort through 300-400 thousand tons of waste. The cost of 7,500 BTC is about $246,000,000 at the time of this writing.


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Stan NorFX

Well-known member
281 1
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 19 - 23, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Macroeconomic data continued to arrive last week, indicating a recovery in the US economy and labor market. Inflation figures released on Tuesday July 13 were well above forecasts. ?he consumer price index increased by 0.9% ?n June, and by 5.4% and on an annualized basis, which is the highest growth rate since 2008. The core index, which excludes energy and food prices, has posted record growth since 1991, at 4.5% year on year.
The number of primary claims for jobless benefits dropped by 26,000 to 360,000 from July 04 to 10. This is the lowest since March 20, when the coronavirus pandemic struck the economy first. Earlier this month, the US Department of Labor released data showing that the number of jobs in the country increased over the past month by 850,000 (up 583,000 in May).
The US import price index rose 1% in June, while import prices excluding oil rose 0.7% in June. The Fed-New York manufacturing index rose from 17.4 to 43.0 for the month, also well above the forecast. According to the Federal Reserve data released on Thursday July 15, industrial production in the US as a whole increased by 0.4% in June compared to May, which also indicates a good pace of recovery in the US economy.
By “pre-covid” logic, all this data would have strengthened the dollar seriously. However, it has risen against the euro by just about 50 points in the past four weeks. And the pair has generally been in a sideways corridor with a minimal dominance of bears for the last two weeks: it traded in the range of 1.1780-1.1895 from July 05 to 09, and in the 1.1770-1.1880 range from July 12 to 16.
These figures fully confirmed the compromise scenario presented by the experts. As for the forecast of graphical analysis, it turned out to be almost perfect. Recall that it indicated a sideways trend within 1.1780-1.1900 on H4.
So why isn't the American currency growing? The reason lies in the hesitancy and doubts that still bedevil the US Fed. The head of this regulator Jerome Powell said speaking on July 14 at the Financial Services Committee of the US Congress that his department would not rush to tighten credit and financial policy and reduce the purchase of assets within the framework of QE. He repeated roughly the same thing the next day, in front of the Senate Banking Committee.
Powell acknowledged that inflation is growing faster than expected, and if it goes beyond acceptable limits, monetary policy will have to be tightened ahead of schedule. But for now, the economy is “still far” from set goals. The rise in inflation, like many other factors, can be temporary. But after they disappear, they can be replaced by others. Now, the spread of the new COVID-19 strain supports the dollar against commodity currencies, but there is no telling how the markets will behave in the future. It is unclear how the early curtailment of the fiscal stimulus program will affect their mood as well.
As a result, having given all this portion of doubts to the congressmen, Powell assured them that the Fed was certainly monitoring the situation closely and would respond promptly to its changes. However, the head of the central bank was unable to influence investor sentiment in any way (or perhaps did not want to), as a result of which the EUR/USD pair remained within a narrow trading range and completed the five-day period at 1.1805;

- GBP/USD. The pair failed to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.3900 over the past week. As with EUR/USD, bears had a slight advantage, helped by positive economic statistics from the USA. Great Britain could not please with anything like that. And although the number of applications for unemployment benefits for the month decreased by 24% - from 151,400 to 114,800, the unemployment rate remained at the same level of 4.8% (instead of the forecast drop to 4.7%). Investors are also worried about the onset of a new wave of COVID-19, due to which the number of new infections here has exceeded 50,000 per day. As a result, despite the fact that the bulls managed to keep the pair in the 1.3800-1.3900 channel all week, its lower border was broken on Friday, July 16 and the pair finished at 1.3760;

- USD/JPY. It was not possible to understand the sentiment of investors, as well as indicators, last week. The experts' voices were almost equally divided: 30% sided with the bulls, 40% with the bears, and 40% just shrugged their shoulders. The inconsistency in the indicators' readings did not allow bringing their readings to any common denominator either. And, as the past five days have shown, it was this lack of forecast that proved to be the most accurate prediction: the USD/JPY pair drew a virtually perfect sinusoid.
As expected, the Bank of Japan did not present any surprises on Friday, July 16, and did not surprise anyone with its inaction, once again confirming the country's reputation as a super-safe haven for investors. Bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda did not utter a single new intriguing word during the press conference once again. Investors knew very well without him that the Japanese economy remains in a difficult situation, but the level of activity will increase as the population is vaccinated.
The balance of power between the dollar and the yen was not affected by the discrepancy in the macroeconomic indicators of the United States and Japan. As a result, the pair ended the week almost where it started, at 110.05;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin was ripping up in late June to early July, wishing to break through the $36,000 resistance. However, none of the attempts made by the bulls were successful. Now the initiative has passed to the bears, and we saw the opposite picture last week: the desire to drop the BTC/USD pair below the psychologically important level of $30,000, after which another wave of mass sales may follow.
Trading volumes on major crypto exchanges including Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, and Bitstamp fell more than 40% in June, according to CryptoCompare. The decline in volumes was due to falling prices and lower volatility. But not only. The absence of large investors, most of whom are now engaged in traditional markets, trying to understand the situation with the coronavirus and the accompanying steps of regulators, is also affecting.
At the time of this writing, the flagship currency is held in the $31,000-32,000 region. And according to Galaxy Digital crypto bank founder Mike Novogratz, this is because of the USA. He stated in a comment to CNBC that the US cryptocurrency community has taken an important defensive line in a market that has its bearish origins in Asia. “We see Asia selling bitcoin and the US buying back. China has declared war on the crypto industry as part of the broader Cold War that we are getting into."
To be honest, it is not yet clear whether it is good or bad that the crypto industry has grown to become a prominent part of the economic policies of the world's leading powers. Time will tell. Of course, Mike Novogratz can consider the exodus of miners from China to be a "big plus" and say that Beijing's repressive policies will not hinder the development of the industry. But judging by the charts, so far the advantage is on China's side. Many investors and traders prefer to stay out of the market for fear of further falls in quotes. Average daily trading turnover is now 76% below peak levels when the price was above $60,000. The total capitalization of the crypto market declined by nearly $100 billion in seven days, from $1.370 trillion to $1.275 trillion. And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index cannot get out of the Extreme Fear zone for several weeks now, fluctuating in the range from 20 to 22 points. (Recall that the market sentiment looked more optimistic a month ago, and the average value of the Index was 33 points).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We talked about the doubts prevailing at the Fed in the first part of the review. In such a situation, the rare unity of analysts looks all the more surprising. Thus, 75% of them were voted for a stronger dollar and a decrease in EUR/USD, 25% for the side trend, and, respectively, 0% for the euro to rise. Perhaps the principle "if you are not sure, buy dollar" worked.
According to 39 out of 41 Reuters experts, the Fed will curtail its monthly asset purchase program by $120 billion before the end of 2022. Three of them believe that this will happen very soon, this year already. The number of those who expect an interest rate increase in 2022, and not in 2023, is also growing. Therefore, the consensus forecast for QE completion is in the next year, which supports the US dollar. The new wave of COVID-19 is also playing on the side of the American currency, recalling that it was during the pandemic that the dollar gained great importance as a reserve currency.
It should be noted that with the transition to the forecast by the end of summer, the number of supporters of a weakening dollar and a strengthening of the euro among experts increases from 0% to 50%.
Graphical analysis on H4 still indicates a sideways trend within the channel 1.1780-1.1900. There is a mixture of red, green and neutral gray colors among the trend indicators and oscillators on H4, but the situation is different on D1: 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators look down.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1880-1.1900, then 1.1975-1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge before the end of summer is to update the high of May 25 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The nearest support on the way to this target is 1.1780.
The economic calendar for the coming week can note the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday July 22. The rate is highly likely to remain unchanged, at 0%. Therefore, the subsequent press conference of the bank's management and its commentary on monetary policy is of much greater interest. According to Reuters, the ECB will have to decide at its meeting on Thursday what the new inflation target will mean for its future course. If the regulator is serious about raising inflation to 2% (compared to the previous target - close, but below 2%), then the large-scale purchase of assets is likely to continue. But the "hawks" insist on curtailing incentives, and therefore investors will be interested in whether the head of the Bank, Christine Lagarde, will be able to achieve a certain compromise.
The Markit PMI values in Germany and the Eurozone will become known the day after the ECB meeting, on July 23, on the basis of which it will be possible to get an impression of the pace of the European economic recovery;

- GBP/USD. Experts are a little more optimistic about the future of the British currency than the future of the euro. So, 25% of specialists vote for the growth of the GBP/USD pair in the near future (as opposed to 0% for EUR/USD). The same is higher at the month and a half interval as well: 65% are bull supporters (the euro has 50%).
As for the technical analysis, there are only faint hints of a possible rise in the pair. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators are colored red on H4 (the remaining 25% are in the oversold zone). 85% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators look south on D1.
Support levels are 1.3740, 1.3700, 1.3670 and 1.3600, resistance levels are 1.3800, 1.3840 and 1.3900. The further target of the bulls is the upper border of the medium-term channel 1.3700-1.4000;


- USD/JPY. As in the case with the previous two pairs, in this case, the majority of experts (70%) expect the dollar to strengthen and a new attempt by the pair to gain a foothold above the level of 111.00. Such a forecast comes into a certain contradiction with the indications of technical analysis on D1. Here 65% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators are colored red.
As for the graphical analysis, it draws the movement of the pair in the range of 109.70-110.40 on H4, with a subsequent fall to support at 109.30. The range of fluctuations is somewhat wider on D1: first, the fall to the zone 108.65-109.30, and then the rise to the resistance 111.00 and further growth to the July 02 high, 111.65;

- cryptocurrencies. We provided the key estimates of the digital market over the last period in the first part of the review. And they don't look rosy at all. It may be too early to talk about the onset of "crypto winter", but it is quite possible to call the current situation "crypto freezes". The BTC/USD chart continues to form a triangle with downward resistance and horizontal support around $31,000. 65% of analysts vote for its breakthrough during the coming month. That being said, according to some experts, if the bulls fail to hold that front line, we stand a lot of chances to see the pair in the region of $10,000 by the end of the year.
But, as usual, there is an opposite point of view as well. So, for example, analyst Will Clemente believes that bitcoin is already ready for a major price movement. He published a chart in his Twitter (136 thousand subscribers) with an indicator, which speaks of a possible imminent exit of the price of the first cryptocurrency from the narrow range. As to the direction of the bitcoin rate, Clemente wrote that he was optimistic. According to him, the market is now in the accumulation stage, and large players continue to actively buy the first cryptocurrency. "Whale" stocks increased by 65,429 BTC just last week. According to Clemente, there may be a shortage of supply of the main cryptocurrency in the near future, since large players often acquire assets for long-term purposes.
The expert also stressed that the growth in the number of cryptocurrency users continues. Whereas their number usually decreases after the peak in prices. But now there is no fall, and this is also an argument in favor of the upcoming growth of BTC.
Another specialist, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone, agrees with Clemente's opinion. According to him, the flagship cryptocurrency has reached a level where it can resume its rally towards $100,000. "Bitcoin is poised to return to a bullish trend in the second half of the year, and crude oil is ready to resume a bearish trend," McGlone wrote on Twitter. The expert is confident that the growth of the cryptocurrency will "have serious macroeconomic consequences" this time. It is worth noting, however, that this is not the first time McGlone predicts a sharp rise in digital assets. For example, he announced in early February that the volatility of bitcoin can increase the gap between its price and gold "hundreds of times."
No one knows yet which of the predictions will turn out to be correct. But there are a couple of ways to make money on cryptocurrency without spending a dime to buy it. However, both of these methods can be classified as "dirty" business. And this in our traditional heading crypto-life hacks.
First, you can help British IT engineer James Howells sort through rubbish. The fact is that this wonderful person threw a hard drive with 7,500 BTC into rubbish eight years ago, confusing it with another device. He then asked local authorities for permission to excavate a local dump to find his property but was refused. And now Howells has developed a new search plan using a super system with multiple conveyor belts, X-ray scanners and artificial intelligence. However, the implementation of this project requires significant financial costs. And if suddenly someone helps an engineer find the disk in a simple way, with the help of a shovel, he will surely share his new-found wealth. Today, his bitcoins are worth more than $230 million, and it is necessary to sort out "only" 300-400 thousand tons of waste.
Another way of “dirty” earnings was told by Reuters. According to this agency, students at Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (South Korea) make money from... going to the toilet. For each visit, they are paid a certain amount in digital currency Ggool.
One of the institute's professors has developed a plant that uses student waste to produce biogas. According to the scientist's calculations, a person produces about 500 grams of feces every day, which can be converted into 50 liters of methane. This amount of gas generates 0.5 kW of electricity, which is equal to the cost of a car to cover a distance of 1.2 km.
The science Initiative brings students up to 10 Ggool per day. The coin is accepted as payment in shops on campus. And the energy produced with the help of students powers a number of devices on the territory of the institute.
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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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