Market up or down on war breakout?

darrenf

Well-known member
481 3
Hello all.

The media etc would have us believe that the markets will rally on breakout of war with Iraq. I'm not so sure. What does anyone else think.

If we compare this to the last gulf war, when the markets dropped back on build up and then rallied when war started, these are very different times.

1. 1992 was a bull market. The pull back could be seen as a market dip, war was seen as a buy signal for the bulls to jump back in.

2. 1992. Iraq was the agressor and the war against them was strongly supported internationally.

3. This time, we are deep in a bear market, markets showing little direction at the moment (downward bias).

4. The war this time does not have strong support. Particularly if we don't get the 2nd UN resolution, it looks like Bush will go it alone (with Blair following). This could have a bad reaction in the markets I believe, and cause further falls.

Opinions?

Many thanks

PS. I'm talking about the main UK and US Stock markets/ indices for the purposes of clarification
 
 
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