Key To Markets - Discussions

KTM Commodity Weekly: Traced out a triple top pattern

With the lack of any major positive triggers on the US-China trade deal, we continue to maintain a cautious stance on the Crude oil price. The oil market started the week on a negative note on November 18 and capped at 50MA (Weekly).

The price of Brent crude traced out a near-term price top near $63.00 in November 2019 via the formation of a triple top pattern. The daily studies RSI and oscillator have been shifted bearish. The shift in sentiment indicates that rallies to resistance at 0.8970-0.9030 should attract selling interest, with substantial support finds at $60.70 and $60.30. Below here, the focus will move down to 0.8770 and $59.00.
Potential threats remain between $63.00-$64.20 its 200MA.
We expect trade to continue to remain range-bound over the coming days due to lack of clarity on Trade deal and $60.20 and $59.00 to remain crucial support in the near term.
The key lower support area of $60.20-$59.00 could be tested amidst a range move in the next few sessions, but that area is unlikely to be broken decisively on the downside in the next 2-3 sessions.

270568

The near-term behavior price of the crude oil price depends on the progress of the trade talks between US-China.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.
A question? Let us help!
A KTM Analyst is ready to assist you, click on the comment section below
 
KTM Commodity Weekly: Correction will get accentuated further

Brent crude oil formed a bearish candle on the daily charts for the 2nd consecutive day in a row. The below chart pattern suggests that the price is vulnerable to a selloff.
271255


In the near-term critical support for the index is placed around $59.50 October low coincides with 200MA (Weekly), and below that $58.40, its 50MA will act as support.
Upsides shall remain capped around $63.50 unless Brent crude manages a strong breakout above the said level.
Three levels to watch this week: $59.50, $59.00 and $58.40
The current correction will get accentuated further if bears manage to push the price below the said average at $59.50 on the closing basis, and in such a scenario initial target can be around $59.00. But, breach of this level can easily drag the index further lower towards $58.40 levels.
On the fundamental side, expectations are building for action to be taken by OPEC+ at its semi-annual meeting on 5 and 6 December.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?
Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
 
KTM Commodity Weekly: Rejected at the higher end of the range

Middle-east tensions spooked the crude oil prices. Brent crude oil breached $70.00 level to post its biggest one-day rise since September 2019. In fact, in the last year there have been five such sessions in which the price closed with more than 3.00% gains whereas there have been 14 sessions in which the price suffered a loss of 3.00% or more.

272502

272503
Let’s look at the year-end tally; the Brent crude surged $13 or 23% to closed at $67.45 levels.
So what should investors do? Historically, spike on account of external factors such as geopolitical concerns is usually regarded as the best time to take profit (remember September 2019 big up).

Now the daily chart suggests that the price could face stiff resistance at the 78.6% fib level $70.50 ahead of $71.50 and $73.00 its 200MA (Monthly).

The daily RSI lacks momentum, and the oscillator has been bearish. Hence the price should cap soon. However, if the price breaks above $70.50 level, it would witness some pushup, which would take the price to key resistance levels towards $71.50 and $73.00.
272504


The price is trading above 200MAs (Weekly), which is an important medium-term moving average, indicating a limited downfall; however, if the price breaks below $64.90 levels, it would face selling pressure which would drag further towards $63.50-$63.00 levels.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?
Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
 
KTM Commodity Weekly: Hits 5-weeks low, in final wave of correction


The Brent crude oil has remained under selling pressure at the start of this week resulting in Brent falling back to 200MA. The oil price is now testing the key support level provided by the previous break out level at $63.50 and $63.00 its two-month ascending trendline. A decisive break below the trendline would open further down towards $62.00 its 100MA. As we highlighted in our previous weekly report, the price is running towards our bearish target $63.50-$63.00.

What’s next?

Oil price lost 1.50% on Monday as the middle east tensions ease. Now the oil prices may fall into a range of $63.00-$59.50 November 2019 swing low. A break below $59.50 would increase the chances of continuing down towards $58.00; its 100.fe. However, the short-term technical picture suggests that the oil price is in the final wave of correction, and a decent bounce may start from the $63.00-60.00 range.

The relative strength index indicator is at 42, and the oscillator is remaining bearish. These suggest remaining neutral and keep focussing on the key support area (below chart). In case of a decent bounce watch out for $65.00 and $67.00 levels.

272871


It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.
What is your Technical View?
Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
 
KTM Commodity Weekly: Why we still believe that the oil price is in the final wave of correction?

The market sentiment took a hit by a fast-spreading coronavirus, as it might lead to a slowdown in the global economic engine. The Brent oil price logged sixth-day straight fall (fourth-week consecutive fall as well) of 2.20% as traders concern death cases of the coronavirus throughout China and also in the U.S.
Why we still believe that the oil price is in the final wave of correction?
  1. The price was closed below the 200MA (Weekly) for the first time since December 2018. Back in September and October 2019, the price fell below 200MA (Weekly) but failed to close below the same. As shown on the chart below, on the two occasions, the price managed to bounce back after losing the 200MA (Weekly). If the same theory works this time, we could expect a decent bounce to $59.60-60.00 and $63.00 levels after China back from holiday.
273614


2. Before dropping to its lowest level in three months, the price traced out an A-B-C corrective structure on the H4 chart. The pattern suggested a fall to $57.50, which was nearly the lowest point on Monday.

273615


3. The daily indicators suggest limited legroom. RSI stands at an oversold level at 22, and the oscillator has been remaining bullish.

273616


Based on these three factors, we still believe that the oil price is in the final wave of correction. We use a stop loss at $55.70 (closing basis).
If the price closed below the April 2019 low, $50.50 is the next destination.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?
Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
 
KTM Commodity Weekly: Scanning bottom side of the fall
  • The oil market sentiment took a hit by a fast-spreading coronavirus, as it might lead to a slowdown in the global economic engine led by China’s economic slowdown.
  • China is the world’s biggest oil importer, nearly 20.0% of total crude oil imports. The fast-spreading Coronavirus could dent the oil demand.
On Monday, the Brent crude oil fell 4.00% to $54.25 its lowest level in 13-months. The price has been falling five straight weeks, followed by five straight weeks of gains. It has lost the 200WMA and settled below the key moving average.

Since 2017 the price didn’t close below the key moving average for more than two weeks. Whereas now this is the third week, the price is trading below the key moving average.

Since the beginning of the year 2020, Brent has fallen more than 23% and lost more than 15% since the Lunar New Year holidays. This is the biggest straight fall since December 2018.
The momentum is clearly to the downside and could continue if the coronavirus headlines hit the wires again. Last week the World Health Organization declared the Coronavirus an international emergency.

Going forward remains below $60.00 its 200WMA; we may see more downside risk towards $52.50 and $50.00 levels. The corrective wave pattern suggests it might fall to $51.70.

Our last week’s technical rebound forecast got dampened and thus requesting traders to remain sidelines until the upcoming OPEC meeting. The daily RSI located at 18, which is the lowest reading since December 2018.

We request traders to focus on the facts, not on opinions. Facts are backed by evidence, whereas opinions are what a
person thinks about something. Based on the RSI indicator oversold condition, we wait for a better buy trade opportunity (meaningful rebound). The first sign of reversal could be on the cards if the price settles above $55.75.

274006

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.
What is your Technical View?
Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analyst
 
KTM FX Weekly: Finally, Goliath meet David
Something must stop the fall and support the price. The level which holds the price should be remembered in the next coming weeks. We have been waiting for a bullish pattern to be developed on the daily chart, or some moving average should hold on. Finally, the 100MA (monthly) said, “I will do it,” like what David told to king Saul.

The previous forecast, “Every Goliath needs a David; we expect 100MA (Monthly) could be the David.”.

Since December 2019, the price remained in ranges between 0.8275-0.8640. Finally, the cross traced out a double bottom and produced a breakout through the roof located at 0.8600. The bulls took control in the last four days as the price rallied from its recent low of 0.8280 to close at 0.8735, gaining 450 pips in the process. The euro performed in line with our last week’s forecast against CHF, GBP, and USD, whereas the current rally could remain capped at 0.8770 (Weekly basis).

Data review:

Last week we got a UK consumer confidence survey, which improves by two points and sees the third monthly increase in a row. And UK manufacturing expands at the fastest pace since April 2019.


  • GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index has increased two points to –7 for February. Three measures increased, one measure decreased, and one measure remained the same this month, according to the Gfk.
Commenting on the latest data Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GfK says: “Against a February backdrop of rising wages and house prices, low unemployment and stable inflation, we report another healthy uptick in consumer confidence this month – the third monthly increase in a row.”
  • The Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in February, up from 50.0 in January, but below the earlier flash estimate of 51.9. The PMI posted above the 50.0 neutral mark for the first time in ten months.
Data preview:
As the EU and the UK started their trade negotiations, we remain cautious in the coming days. We don’t expect a straight-up move from hereon, rocky road ahead.

BBC reported, “Negotiations are to take place once every two or three weeks from now until the summer at least, alternating between Brussels and London – with the prime minister insisting a deal must be struck by the year’s end.”

Danske Bank said, “We believe tensions will increase over the coming months ahead of the first deadlines in June, which is the main reason we are still negative on GBP.”

Besides Services PMI (Wed) will receive some focus.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

It’s a nonstop boom now to 0.8700 levels. A range breakout followed by a double bottom pattern on the daily, Weekly and Monthly charts suggests further headroom is likely in the coming days to weeks.

A fresh assault at 200MA is on the cards, and the next target above here is 0.8770-0.8800 levels. Bigger picture we could even start to think about 0.8900 its 61.8 fib reaction, 0.9000, and 0.9080 levels.

On the downside, 0.8570 and 0.8415 can act as proper support. Until the euro stays above the support at 0.8380, it can be approached with a bullish bias. Note that we don’t expect a straight-up move from hereon, rocky road ahead.
EURGBPDaily.png


It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
 
KTM Commodity Weekly: Shakedown and Break down. What’s next?
  • Price ran through the target we set
  • Expect a bounce-back
Brent crude Oil rebound from last week’s sell-off: It was another wild swing for the Oil market, with Brent Oil down $19.40 in Asia session on April 22 and bounce back to $26.60 the very next day. Global equity markets bounced back along with Crude Oil.

The oil price movement is creating a risk-on/risk-off investment market sentiment to the financial and forex markets. In the past few weeks, the oil price has dropped to 18 years lows of $19.60 levels. We have been recommending a bearish target of $20.00 and $17.00 levels. In our latest article last Tuesday, we forecasted a target of $22, which the price runs through on Wednesday. The crude oil price lost above two-thirds of their value in1Q 2020.

Positioning:
  • Danske Bank’s latest IMM positioning (April 14-22) reported that speculators raise long bets “Largest single week net bullish WTI build since May 2016”.
  • Reuters reported, “Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to April 21, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. The speculator group raises its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 107,777 contracts to 307,321 during the period”.
Demand: Due to the COVID-crisis, most of the economies are placed lockdown restrictions. Even after the lockdowns, the demand crisis will remain in place due to travel restrictions. Demand refers to how much of a product consumers are willing to purchase, at different price points, during a specific period. Australia and New Zealand are easing lockdown rules. Today New Zealand is officially in level 3 lockdown (down from level 4).

  • HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary-General, said, “Global oil demand in 2020 is now forecast to fall by as much as 6.8 mb/d y-o-y, due to the global COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on transportation and industrial fuels. Oil demand is expected to suffer the most in the first half of the year and shrink by more than ten mb/d before recovering somewhat in 2H20.”
What’s next? Now all the commodity favored eyes focus on Oil as the output cut by the OPEC+ group of counties led by Russia and Saudi Arabia kicks in on Friday.

This Friday is when the OPEC plus cuts kick in. In a historic deal, OPEC+ agrees record cut to oil production by 9.7 million barrels a day in May and June 2020. It is the deepest cut ever agreed to by the World’s oil producers.

Coming back to the technical side, Brent crude Oil extended losses on Monday after bouncing back to $26.20 last Thursday. The Crude Oil closed the day $2 or 10%, lower at $22.90.

According to the daily charts, the key support level is placed at $22.00 and $21.00. If the price continues moving up, key resistance levels are set at $23.40- $24.00 and $25.20.

The RSI has been developing a positive divergence since March 09, 2020. In case of a bounce-back situation we could expect $30+ levels in the coming weeks.

BRENTDaily.png

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts.
 
KTM Commodity Weekly: Brent continues to eye a key medium-term resistance level

Brent crude oil jumped 3% on Monday morning in response to the OPEC+ extend its output cuts to the end of July. The 11th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held via videoconference on Saturday, 06 June 2020.

The Meeting recalled the decision taken by all Participating Countries in the OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 12 April 2020 to adjust overall crude oil production downwards, according to the OPEC official report.

Gains short-lived: After a sharp gap up, Brent crude oil lost nearly 4% from day’s high and has finished its rally by closing 3.5% down. A total of 7.50% down from intraday high. Finally, the long winning streak has come to an end rejected at the more top end of the Bollinger band. On the downside is $40.00 its 100MA, and $37 the mid-point of the Bollinger band can act as proper support. The medium-term support located around $34 and $29.30.

Straight run: The price logged higher for six consecutive weeks. Back in December 2019, the race lasted for five weeks and six weeks in April 2018. Based on this, we expect the current has limited headroom from the current price. Buying on dips preferred.
BRENTDaily.png

As long as $29.90 is supported, buying dips favor the trend. The daily RSI is overbought, and the oscillator has been remaining bearish.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.
What is your Technical View?
Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts
 
KTM FX Weekly: History always repeats itself
  • History always repeats itself
  • Vaccine divergence support the pound
  • 1Q closing is the key for the medium term for the EURGBP
History always repeats itself:

The pound has been outperforming against the EUR since the beginning of the year 2021. And now the cross logged three weeks down in a row. The last time it was recorded in August and September 2020. Before these, the cross logged four weeks downfall between March -April 2020. Currently, we are in the fourth week, and this week’s closing is the key as per the historical data.

At the higher time frame monthly chart, the cross logged four months straight fall, and now we are at fifth. The last time the fall was recorded for six between April-September 2014 and August-December 2019, and four months downfall recorded between December 2014-March 2015. In this case, March 2021 or 1Q closing is the key for the medium term.

EURGBPMonthly.png


According to the weekly chart, 0.8690 is the immediate support suggested by the A-B-C corrective pattern. Below here, 0.8670 and 0.8620 previous lows exist. A decisive breakout down below 0.8600 could open all the way down to 0.8450 levels.

EURGBPMonthly.png


Vaccine divergence:

UK Prime Minister Johnson said that he would detail his roadmap for ending the current lockdown next Monday, with a priority to try and reopen schools from 8 March. This follows news that the country has made good progress with its vaccination program.

Recent pound strength is largely helped by “A fast UK vaccination process and BoE ruling out negative rates for now,” as per Danske Bank.

Among two European currencies, clearly, the pound remains more appealing on UK’s Vaccine outlook. At least 15 million people in the UK have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine – part of the biggest inoculation program the country has ever launched, according to BBC.

In contrast, the EU has fallen behind on Vaccine rollout. As per the media sources, “Only 3% of people living in the EU have received a dose of Covid-19 vaccine, compared to more than 15% in the UK and 10% in the US.”

Last week the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, admitted that “The EU underestimated the rolling out of vaccines and that “we are not where we want to be” in the fight against the coronavirus, as per media sources.

Paul Donovan at UBS said on Monday, “Virus optimism is likely to continue to influence markets with the UK vaccinating over a quarter of its population (leading to calls for reduced restrictions), and US cases at a four-month low.”

Macros:
  • The latest economic data confirmed that the UK GDP grew by 1.2% in December 2020 after falling by 2.3% in November. This was largely reflected by the rebound in the services sector.
Figure 1_ GDP grew by 1.2% in December 2020 after falling by 2.3% in November.png

  • The services sector acted as the main contributor to growth in December, increasing by 1.7% as a number of consumer-facing industries reopened following the easing of restrictions in December. The production sector grew marginally by 0.2% in December 2020.
This week we will see UK CPI and Retail data.

ING said, “Headline CPI will remain heavily constrained by energy prices, while more timely spending data points to a post-Christmas 4% fall in retail sales.”

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts
 

KTM FX Weekly: UK-Germany spread at pre-COVID levels​


In terms of cyclical and structural factors, UK is leading the EZ, which eventually leads to higher UK 10year gilts than Europe. Since last year’s lows’ UK 10year yields rallies from 0.105% to 0.825% pre-Covid levels. Besides UK vaccination program is well ahead of Europe. Both these factors have been supporting the UK assets and the pound against Europe.

FT.JPG


Source: FT
Spread: The United Kingdom 10 years/ German 10 years Bond

spread-united-kingdom-10.png

Source: http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com

Currently, the spread is 113.5bps, which is equal to the September 2019 and November 2016 high. In FX, the EURGBP cross is trading at 0.8590slightly higher to November 2016 low at 0.8450.

FX: A decisive breakout above 0.8730 is needed to confirm the trend.

Since late February, EURGBP has been consolidating in a range between 0.8540-0.8730 levels with a higher RSI pattern. But the oscillator is still showing bearish divergence, hence a mixed pattern. A daily close above 0.8600 would confirm the short-term trend, but still selling on rallies preferred. Flipside, we continue to open an eye towards 0.8470 and 0.8400.

EURGBPMonthly.png


Data review:

ONS’s latest GDP reported weakening on the back of lockdowns and Brexit. According to the official release, UK GDP fell 2.9% in January, following a growth of 1.2% in December 2020. Restrictions were in place to a varying degree across all four nations of the UK during January.

We learned from the latest GDP report that the services sector acted as the main drag on growth in January, decreasing by 3.5% as restrictions on activity were reintroduced in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Data wise, we focus on the Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday. We don’t expect either BoE or FOMC to change the rates. Likewise, ECB expects BoE will keep its dovish stance.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

What is your Technical View?

Do you have a different idea? Please leave us a comment and get an answer from our professional analysts
 
Top