FAQ How Long Does it Take to Make a Stable Income from Trading?

Fugazsy

Well-known member
Nov 10, 2014
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An overshoot of a trendline, usually you can count 3 waves or pushes on a 5 min chart intraday on futures after you see an extreme move...turns out this was just a new leg down in a downtrend more often than exhaustion, utterly unreliable strategy, only useful for marketing to newbies who haven't had their pockets drained by the markey yet, as Db_Phoenix knows I'm sure. VWAP is volume-weighted average price, the standard deviations of VWAP can be useful on a stock like AAPL but futures moves too fast and chaotically based on orderbook predatory algos and the like.
I am talking about a test/undershoot/overshot of the recent extreme after a healthy pullback with a break of a major trend line... in my experience they work at least 60% of times.....most of the time the reward is at least the risk, sometime they pay very well...
 
Last edited:
Jul 2, 2014
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I am talking about a test/undershoot/overshot of the recent extreme after a healthy break of a major trend line... in my experience they work at least 60% of times.....most of the time the reward is at least the risk, sometime they pay very well...
Not on index futures or commodity futures, higher timeframes charts reveal this setup's viability is illusory, more like 55-45 one way or the other, flip a coin which way, no edge here once commissions and trade management are factored in.
 

Fugazsy

Well-known member
Nov 10, 2014
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Not on index futures or commodity futures, higher timeframes charts reveal this setup's viability is illusory, more like 55-45 one way or the other, flip a coin which way, no edge here once commissions and trade management are factored in.
I only trade forex, I have not any idea how to trade what you mentioned.

Here we are talking about possible major reversals, in forex technicality will not be enough for a possible reversal at the new extreme, one needs to take in consideration relative strength, if one is trying to reverse a strong currency versus a weak one he/she has little chances to turn the trade in a positive way but if she is trying to reverse a pair when they matches in either weakness or strength the chances are much more greater, it can be more than 60% which is of course dependable on the trader personal skills.

I guess it will be the same with major stocks, if Apple is showing a major bearish reversal you expect the sp500 in showing weakness or at least prices are at a major resistance.
 

tar

Well-known member
Nov 18, 2006
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Not on index futures or commodity futures, higher timeframes charts reveal this setup's viability is illusory, more like 55-45 one way or the other, flip a coin which way, no edge here once commissions and trade management are factored in.
Its funny you mention indices hence they just go up with time ...
 

darktone

Well-known member
Nov 2, 2003
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some questions:-

1) How many years have you been trading?
2) In ES, what kinda size do you trade relative to acc? (notional / acc)
3) Have you ever ever learned to 'manage risk with size' as Don puts it?
4) What does the sum of money lost mean to you?
5) Do you look for confirmation before you trade?

and the old fav :p

6) Do you like to use stops to manage risk?
 
Jul 2, 2014
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some questions:-

1) How many years have you been trading?
2) In ES, what kinda size do you trade relative to acc? (notional / acc)
3) Have you ever ever learned to 'manage risk with size' as Don puts it?
4) What does the sum of money lost mean to you?
5) Do you look for confirmation before you trade?

and the old fav :p

6) Do you like to use stops to manage risk?
1. 5+ years
2. Maximum margin w/deep discount futures bucketshots to the default high margins w/more conservative brokerages.
3. No
4. Everything at the moment, hoping to get back on my feet with a profitable year once I find some money.
5. Sometimes, this can make me too late and guarantee a loss.
6. I don't like to, but ES has less stop runs than CL, so I do use stops on the ES at times but am quite aware this is a magnet for HFT.
 
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darktone

Well-known member
Nov 2, 2003
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1. 5+ years
2. Maximum margin w/deep discount futures bucketshots to the default high margins w/more conservative brokerages.
3. No
4. Everything at the moment, hoping to get back on my feet with a profitable year once I find some money.
5. Sometimes, this can make me too late and guarantee a loss.
6. I don't like to, but ES has less stop runs than CL, so I do use stops on the ES at times but am quite aware this is a magnet for HFT.
Thanks for those answers pete
 
Jul 2, 2014
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Thanks for those answers pete
I'm sure there are more losers around here like me than most would expect. Ancedotes about traders who made it back from such bad situations by trading would be inspiring.

All the success stories I've read and believed tend to be from vendors and wealthy people making small bits of income from active trading with the hidden ace up their sleeves usually being their trading vendor products, CDs, bonds, rental properties, etc, not some epiphany from mastering technical analysis and day trading. I would like to be wrong on this.
 
Jan 6, 2017
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3 years is quite a while. I've been going for a year. I hope it doesn't take another two years before I can make a success of it

I think what he means is to have a solid career in -forex on enough experience okay. If you already have a year you are on track, only accumulate as much experience as you can and be smart in your investments.
 

alextrader79

Active member
Jan 16, 2017
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I think what he means is to have a solid career in -forex on enough experience okay. If you already have a year you are on track, only accumulate as much experience as you can and be smart in your investments.
That's it. You don't have to trade on demo for years before going live. I made my first strategy in a few months, tested it and tried with a little deposit. After I corrected what went wrong and checked if it was proper, I enlarged my depo. Every month I analyzed what I did and improved my trading system. Now I can say that in three years it became really profitable for me. Knowledge and experience I got during those three years was essential and if I look back on that trader who I was and compare him to the trader I am now... I changed a lot professionally.
The secret is not to give up, analyze, improve.
 
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