The final Holy Grail!

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As a sort of footnote to this thread, Medbs might like to reflect on the wise words of someone who - allegedly - knows a thing or two when it comes to trading, especially the Forex market . . .

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong"
George Soros​
 
This is where he tells us he was actually short EUR/USD and waiting for closing position, it was just a typo... Anyway, I will wait until end of month of May for my criticizes...
 
Odds and Edge - Probabilities in Day Trading

The whole concept of odds and probabilities is a subject that most beginner traders avoid, but is absolutely one of every professional trader's secrets for success. Trading the financial markets is all about managing risk, nothing is 100% accurate or works 100% of the time. There is always a certain chance, certain odds, certain probability that a trade will work or wont work. Even if a trading system generates 99% chance of success, there is still that 1% chance of failure. Nothing in trading is black or white, everything is somewhere in the gray. It is the job of the trader to determine how gray the trade is, what are odds of success. The trader can then adjust their trading based on the probability of the specific trade and the probability of the trading system that he uses. By figuring out exact odds of success, the trader can figure out his edge and maintain it.

Why Odds and Edge?

Anyone that has ever been to Las Vegas can see the money that the casinos spend to lure the gambler into their casino. The casinos make their money, an enormous amount of money, by maintaining their edge. In the collection of all games that a casino runs, they still maintain around 4.5% edge. That means that out of every dollar that is brought in to the casino, 4.5 cents stay there. Some people hit the jack pots, some people lose everything they have, but the casino, on average, makes 4.5%. For the casinos, it is not gambling, it is a game of odds, probabilities and they know their edge. The more gamblers come in, the more money they bring with them, the more the casino makes, as long as they maintain their edge.

In trading, the trader runs their own casino. If a trader wins 80% of the time, makes $200.00 every time he wins and loses $100.00 every time he loses, on average the trader makes $140.00 per trade. As long as the trader maintains his ratios, his edge, he will make, on average, $140.00 every time he executes a trade.

This is a very important statistic for a trader. Being aware of these numbers allows traders to weather draw downs, stick to their system, eliminating hesitation and managing their trading correctly.

Odds and Your System

Every trader wants to make money. Even the best analysis, best system in the world will have losing trades, it is just part of the business, there is no 100% success. After a long testing period, every trader should evaluate their statistics to find their edge. What percentage of trades are profitable? What is the average winning trade? What is the average losing trade? What is the average profit per day?

Testing a trading system is a gradual process, as many factors can affect results. By paper trading for a long period of time, a beginner trader can evaluate their trading system. The next step is trading minimum size positions and testing system results again. Keeping a trading diary and tracking performance as the system develops can establish the system's edge and odds of success. These numbers will help the trader become a business and not a gambler.

Odds and Your Individual Trades

Every trading system has certain conditions or parameters that are required before a trade is executed. Depending on the structure of the trading system, there can be more parameters or less parameters. The more conditions are true, the higher the odds of a successful trade. It is almost impossible to find a trade that has all conditions aligned, almost all trades are less than perfect.

Knowing the trade's odds can help a trader evaluate risk and adjust position accordingly. If only 80% of conditions in the trading system exist, the trade has less odds of success than a trade that has 100% of conditions and should be traded differently.

If all trading conditions exist, if all indicators are lined up, the trade has certain odds of success. If not all indicators are lined up correctly, the trade has lower odds of success. Below a certain level of odds, the trade should not be taken.

Thinking in Odds

Most traders have serious problems thinking in odds because it is against our nature to take on a position without being 100% sure that it will be a success. Losing hurts, it is painful, taking a position knowing that there is a chance of loss is usually avoided. Traders want to "know" what is going to happen and therefore look for the black and white in trading. Black and white do not exist in trading.

A trade can be right and still lose. All indicators can be aligned and the trade can still lose. Even if the system is 99% accurate, there is still a chance that the trade will be a loss. Most traders are unable to accept this and it causes frustration. By learning to think in odds, a trader can both vary their trading according to odds of success and accept losing trades a lot easier.

by Shay Horowitz

ps. from FF forums .
 
Good post by tar. The author of the paper below derives a formula for the edge, which is the expectancy of a system. The odds is the average winner. The ratio of the two is the optimal bet. The paper is a must read and nobody should trade IMO unless understanding it in depth:

Paper on edge and odds
 
This medbs is just full of crap....

This is the last posting I made in his topic on forex-tsd.com forum which is my home base...
I made this posting in reaction on the 2 last orders he called: http://www.forex-tsd.com/commercial-trading-systems-indicators/25642-holly-grail-medbs-9.html

medbs said:
05-13-2010, 09:15 AM Buy EUR/USD at 1.2665, waiting for closing position.

medbs said:
05-13-2010, 01:20 PM Buy again EUR/USD at 1.2595, waiting for closing position.

Medbs,
I hope that you will not come back in a couple of days to say that you have hit your target.
I believe that you made your trading style quite clear. And that is NO S/L. Waiting for price to come back. Most of the times it will come back. But the day that it does not come back you blow up your account.

To all newbies and amateurs out there, I hope that you open your eyes now. There are no miracle traders out there and there NEVER will be.
Just imagine that you would have started to follow his trades with real money and that these 2 trades would have been your first 2 trades ?!....(it would not suprice me that some of you followed his trades and with real money).
Listen to some very good advice: NEVER EVER EVER listen or follow a trader that does not use any stop losses. They are just casino players that can have a lot of good luck but sooner or later you will blow up your accounts. A professional trader will always place a stoploss on a trade the moment he opens a positions...always.

Friendly regards...iGoR

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Re: no holy grail - lol!!

This mornings falls have seen an end to the supposed/disputed 100% win rate

Unrealised losses on a/c at the lows on the 3 open trades were

eurusd -37.7% and -42.7% on the 2 x open trades
gbpusd -27.3% on the open trade
audusd - 9.8% on the open trade

Total - 117.5% of the a/c

You are living in a parallel delusional universe Medbs, your open trades have wiped out the a/c unless on a margin call you added in....the eurusd trades were as you say not risky and so @ 10:1 leverage and you belatedly said the long on gbpusd was at 3;1 leverage beacuse it was 'risky' , and I can't remember re the audusd but giving you the benefit of the doubt at say 3:1 leverage on your so called 'risky trades' the above shows the situation as of that date. Even if you added in trading margin are you seriously still trying to tell us that for example a trade like gbpusd going -921pips offside is a serious way to trade??

If this thread wasn't a joke before, it is now !!
 
Re: no holy grail - lol!!

You are living in a parallel delusional universe Medbs, your open trades have wiped out the a/c unless on a margin call you added in....the eurusd trades were as you say not risky and so @ 10:1 leverage and you belatedly said the long on gbpusd was at 3;1 leverage beacuse it was 'risky' , and I can't remember re the audusd but giving you the benefit of the doubt at say 3:1 leverage on your so called 'risky trades' the above shows the situation as of that date. Even if you added in trading margin are you seriously still trying to tell us that for example a trade like gbpusd going -921pips offside is a serious way to trade??

If this thread wasn't a joke before, it is now !!

GBP/USD & AUD/USD trades are not supposed to be taken because of their very high level of risk.

It seems that you misunderstand the point of this thread, which is to show that 100% winning strategy does exist, even when the markets are in crisis.
 
Re: no holy grail - lol!!

GBP/USD & AUD/USD trades are not supposed to be taken because of their very high level of risk.

It seems that you misunderstand the point of this thread, which is to show that 100% winning strategy does exist, even when the markets are in crisis.

Lol you posted them like you posted all others before that and only when they were hopelessly offside did you come back with '....oh no but they are high risk and only 3;1 leverage was used, I won't post high risk ones anymore...' and now you say that you didn't take them at all...Lol !! You may be kidding yourself but no-one else...
 
Re: no holy grail - lol!!

Lol you posted them like you posted all others before that and only when they were hopelessly offside did you come back with '....oh no but they are high risk and only 3;1 leverage was used, I won't post high risk ones anymore...' and now you say that you didn't take them at all...Lol !! You may be kidding yourself but no-one else...

But it is the case.
What about the first 13 trades, the profit was taken on the same day we entered the trade.
Why don't you talk about them?
And, I'm serious about what I said, they were highly risky trades with the three others (USD/CHF, USD/CAD & EUR/USD), and I posted them just to show you that even when the markets are in crisis, this strategy can give 100% winning rate.
 
Even just looking at your 'non risky' eurusd trades being long from 2665 and 2595 at 10:1 leverage, the leverage you were employing on the 'non risky trades' at the low of 2143, your account balance was down by -52.2% and -45.2% resepectively totalling -97.2% unrealised losses at the lowest point (so far.) of the trade...!!
 
Short USD/CHF at 1.1040, waiting for closing position.
Buy GBP/USD at 1.5150, waiting for closing position.

Medbs Tell us straight, what is the '...closing position...' of the gbpusd long 5150 that you posted on 5th May. By the way also on 5th may you answered a question about how long you keep an open trade open for, you answered as below !!

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Medbs has some psychological issues. He likes to be abused. It's a form of cyber-masochism, and I have to admit I've not seen it before. It is also combined with a psychopathic ability to ignore facts.

Why anyone is still attempting to show him that his paper trading would have wiped out a real account ages ago, and the fact he is a habitual liar, I've no idea.

So the question would be --- if medbs is a willing victim, are we culpable of being willing aggressors? It's fascinating.

It's also quite difficult to wind him up, although I managed to on a couple of occasions.

He probably goes to fetish clubs at the weekend and asks to be beaten, is my guess.
 
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