DOW - ES Charts 09/12 - 13/12

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ChartMan

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Inv. H&S fails at the open with the inevitable result. I've never considered the target on failure, but I'm going to assume that it's 100 the other way, ie 8400. This is some move without any real correction or pullback.
 

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ChartMan

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Down down and more down. Gap down on open and bar a small recovery play after lunch, that was the total story. Good for the profits.
 

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ChartMan

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Picking that top......the last up tick prodeced a divergent volume spike, and the down tick volume bars were already gathering pace. Along with the Doji top, you should have seen the short coming in good time for a very quick 5 points.
 

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ChartMan

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OK. So now we have our correction, without reaching 8400. Divergence from the sharp dip to 8500, a breakout from the downtrend resistance and closing above the 100MA looks to make a good setup for tomorrow. A pullback to 8550 to confirm...and then a test of 8600. One step at a time :)
 

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ChartMan

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Basically a nice day with lots of divergences on RSI to help the decisions. I realy don't like the way CCI doesn't confirm divergences like it did on AIQ.....
 

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ChartMan

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Picking the action out of this triangle break was quite nice, but not for the faint hearted. The uptick volume bars held most of the aces, with their decisive action above the 2000/min. The false breakout should have produced an increase in the downtick volume, but it didn't and that was the clue. The final breakout to the upside was never going to go far,towards the close, and the lower uptick bar on the pullback to 902.3 saw to that,making just another 3 points to 905.
The horizontal upper line gives a target price, and the traingle apex gives a second ( time) reference for the target.
 

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ChartMan

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I'm a great believer in the "tramlines"..... yesterday's breakout has continued confirmation so now I have added my guesses for the tramlines. As the move progresses, we can adjust them to suit, thus becoming adaptive and more realistic/predictive.
Some divergence setting in now, but that could develop into a bull triangle breakout. 8550 support 8600 res. The break will move us to 8700.
 

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ChartMan

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Looks like ES may hold on to 900 and a re-test of 910 tomorrow. A break from the formation could take us to 920.
 

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ChartMan

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You can see that all the action is dependant on the tick volumes being above 2000/min.The first rise doesn't end until the up tick vol declines to 2000/min. At this point, the down tick vols. are barely making 2k/min, and therefore there is little down pressure, reaching a peak , eventually at 19:19. Note the immediate lower hirgh on the down tick vol, against the higher low on the price, giving a volume divergent bottom again.
Note also the build up in down tick vols from 16:09 to 16:28, adding to the confirmation of the coming top. This shows sellers are gaining interest, and a hold, along with the bulls covering.
 

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ChartMan

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No breakout, failing to break 8620 straightaway, then dropping to support at 8520.Getting close to breakdown and 8500 will be crucial.Trendline have produced an SR switch whick could lead to the downfall....
 

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ChartMan

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Nice volatility in the morning session, but nasty whipsaws for the rest of the day with no real conviction for a move in any direction.
 

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ChartMan

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Not easy to pick out anything of great interest today....except pehaps the early divergent top in the morning session.
 

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ChartMan

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At the start of the week I noted the target for the Inverse H&S failure as 8400, and here we are. Luck or skill I couldn't say, but one to note anyway. Yesterday's SR switch certainly delivered! Perhaps now we can get back to being bulls again :)
On a serious note, is this is a bear flag, we have a target of 8000. Enjoy the ride down under the 100MA....
 

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ChartMan

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Crucial was 888 today.Tried once and bounced. Tried a second time and didn't make it. 3rd time bounced and 4th. time failed. No way back by the looks. The latter session developed a substantial downtrend, finally breaking down just after the close. Divergence in the last hour may see some light relief Monday....
 

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ChartMan

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This wasn't too dificult to pick out. The low volumes helped highlight the peaks above the MA line. The move started with the uptick vol building from 17:20 to 17:30, just touching the MA line- no downtick action at all. If you missed getting on at 890 ( a tad risky) then there should have been no excuses at 891 on the vol peak well above the MA line, and still no real seller volume. Easy ride to the top with buyers to sellers volume 3:1 all the way. Three opportunities to get out on the diminishing uptick volume peaks. Should have been an easy 5 points. Even the double top should have got most out.
No need to panick at the pullback just below 895 either- the downtick volume diminishing on the second black bar- normally a point to exit on increasing volume.Alternatively a 1 point stop would have kept you in as well.
Unusual move as it was during the "lunch hour"......
 

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