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AriaS
Active member
This night I made a bitter mistake.
As a result, AYC lost almost half of the last 3 months' return. The strategy lost 2/3 of the return.
This happened because I let our Expert Advisor trade during the night of the Australian interest rate shift. From now on, this strategy will not trade close to major rate shifts! It is not built to deal with such market conditions.
IlIlIlIlI
Experienced member
Didn't you have similar situations during your backtesting period?
AriaS
Active member
Both yes and no. On one hand, the maximal DD of the strategy is 16%, the 13% that happened the day before Yesterday seems normal. But on the other hand, that 13% DD happened on the night of major Australian economic news. The special back tests of such nights showed risk-reward ratio that is only a bit in favor of trading during such nights. I was hesitant but decided to trade. Now, after the day before yesterday, it's clear that it's not worth it.
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AriaS
Active member
A bit of a fix for the recent losses
Was anticipating the weekend market gap because of the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive. Ukraine has liberated more than 8,000 square km since Sep 1st
It is more than the nazi russia occupied since April.Friday trades and the gap trade of $144:
Constantino
Junior member
How did you come up with these monthly compounding numbers in #8?
AriaS
Active member
Friends, sorry for disappearing. I owe you an explanation. I stopped trading. I consider this DARWIN a failure. I thought I knew how to make it work this time, but apparently I didn't. Still had those DDs that I can't accept. Currently I am investing in other DARWINs and feel good about it.
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AriaS
Active member
- Non-compounded investment: 100% (100%/12 = 8.33% per month)
- Monthly compounded investment: 167% (100*1.0833^12=261. Sorry, it's 161%. I had miscalculated because I made an approximate calculation)
AriaS
Active member
Right after the message about quiting I came up with an idea! I decided to backtest all my old systems that I quit long ago and when I saw some good results I uploaded them to "backtests" on Darwinex. This one system that I quit back in March 2020 (the worst month of Covid-19) turned out a great surprise! I've never yet seen anything like this when uploadeding countless setups through the years. Isn't it amazing? Look at the low VaR. Now the question is if I should create a new Darwin or use AYC for this system. What do you think?
p.s. It's a technical setup that trades during normal times (slippage won't be a problem)
p.s. It's a technical setup that trades during normal times (slippage won't be a problem)
IlIlIlIlI
Experienced member
The last 3 months combined have not been profitable, not even in this backtest.
The same happened with AYC and you stopped trading, also you changed parameters or your strategy after the first DD six weeks before. What will you do with this one if this is repeated?
IMO backtests are useless, it's just to fool greedy investors without relevant experience. I don't care about these "tests" since about 20 years.
Run it on a live account for more than 3 months as a foreward test and you'll see whether the strategy will survive market changes over months. From my experience a six months period is the minimum to talk about the success of a strategy, this period is also confirmed by AYC.
It's secondary whether you use AYC for this strategy or a new account, I always take a new account for a new strategy, also if it is not planned to create a Darwin.
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AriaS
Active member
Friends, I decided to start trading the new setup on AYC (see the pevious post).
Have been doing it since Jan 6th. Let's see how it unfolds. The backtest looks too good to not try it.
The strategy is a swing and technical one. No slippage issue. The loss aversion should be much better than the previous scalping strategy. This strategy won't have SL > TP.
Have been doing it since Jan 6th. Let's see how it unfolds. The backtest looks too good to not try it.
The strategy is a swing and technical one. No slippage issue. The loss aversion should be much better than the previous scalping strategy. This strategy won't have SL > TP.
