Daily outlook By commexfx

Daily Outlook 23-10-2014

EUR/USD
The EUR declined 0.52% against the USD and closed at 1.2646.
The greenback traded on a stronger footing after the US consumer prices advanced 0.1% on a monthly basis in September, beating market expectations. The MBA mortgage applications in the US rose 11.6% in the week ended October 17, after registering 5.6% gain in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.26, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2562. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2708, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2778.
Trading trends in the Euro today would be determined by the manufacturing and services PMI from the Euro-zone and Germany, its biggest economy, scheduled in a few hours from now. Meanwhile, investors would keenly look at the US initial jobless claims data, scheduled later today.
GBP/USD
The GBP fell 0.40% against the USD and closed at 1.6046, after the minutes of the BoE’s latest policy meeting revealed that majority of the policymakers voted to keep the interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5994, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5942. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6115, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6184. Going forward, market participants look forward to the UK’s retail sales data as well the BoE’s MPC member Ben Broadbent’s speech, scheduled in a few hours.
USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.12% against the JPY and closed at 107.17. Early morning data indicated that, Japan’s Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to a level of 52.8 in October, up from previous month’s reading of 51.7. Separately, the IMF gave Japan the green signal to go ahead with a second sales tax hike next year in order to maintain credibility of the nation’s fiscal framework. The pair is expected to find support at 106.92, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.55. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.52, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.76.
USD/CHF
The USD rose 0.48% against the CHF and closed at 0.9538. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9496, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9444. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9575, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9602.
 
Weekly Outlook 3-11-2014

EUR USD
EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.2485 last week and the breach of 1.2500 support indicates resumption of fall from 1.3993. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144. On the upside, above 1.2613 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2886 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress. And break of 1.2042 will likely pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209. Before that, EUR/USD would continue to engage in sideway trading between 1.1875 and 1.5143 in medium term.
GBP USD
GBP/USD’s recovery from 1.5876 should be completed at 1.6184 already. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.5876 first. Break will extend the decline from 1.7190 and to 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. In any case, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.6226 resistance holds and downside breakout is expected. However, break of 1.6226 will bring stronger rebound back towards 1.6523 resistance instead.
In the longer term picture, we’re sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are forming the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn’t be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we’ll then see a more sustainable rebound.
USD JPY
USD/JPY surged to as high as 112.47 last week and the strong break of 110.08 resistance confirmed up trend resumption. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 114.19. Break will target 161.8% projection at 119.75 next. On the downside, below 111.45 minor support will bring brief consolidations before staging another rise.
In the long term picture, the strong impulsive look of the rally from 75.56 suggests that USD/JPY is now in a long term up trend. Based on current momentum, such rally should at least take out 61.8% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 120.13 and have a test on 124.13 resistance.
USD CHF
USD/CHF’s rebound suggests that pull back from 0.9688 has completed at 0.9359 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.9688 first. Break will extend that larger rise from 0.8698 towards 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone. On the downside, below 0.9543 minor support will probably extend the correction from 0.9688 with another fall. . But in that case, we’d continue to expect strong support inside 0.9300/9395 support zone to complete the correction and bring rebound.
In the longer term picture, we’d maintain that price actions from 0.9971 are corrective in nature. That is, the up trend from 0.7065 should resume after finishing the correction. And, note that break of 0.9971 will also have 55 months EMA firmly taken out and would be a strong indication of completion of the down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). In that case, USD/CHF should at least have a take of 1.1288 cluster resistance (38.2 % retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1358).
 
Daily Outlook 5-11-2014

EUR/USD
The EUR rose 0.49% against the USD and closed at 1.2553. In economic news, the European Commission in its economic forecast downgraded the Euro-zone’s economic growth projections to 0.8% and 1.1% for 2014 and 2015 respectively, lower than its earlier forecast of a growth of 1.2%. The greenback lost ground after factory orders in the US eased 0.6%, registering a second consecutive month fall in September, at par with market expectations, following a drop of 10.0% registered in August. Additionally, the nation’s trade deficit widened more than expected to $43.0 billion in September, against market expectations to record a deficit of $40.2 billion. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2517, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2469. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2595, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2625. Trading trends in the Euro today would be determined by the Euro-zone retail sales as well as services PMI data from the region and its peripheries, scheduled in a few hours.
GBP/USD
The GBP rose 0.19% against the USD and closed at 1.6007. In economic news, construction activity in Britain dropped to a 5-month low level of 61.4 in October, lower than market expectations for a drop to 63.5. Yesterday, leading thinktank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research projected interest rates in the UK to reach 1% from an all-time low of 0.5% by the end of 2015. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5987, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5960. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6031, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6048. Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by Britain’s services PMI data, set for release in a few hours from now.
USD/JPY
The USD weakened 0.29% against the JPY and closed at 113.46. the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, mentioned that the central bank would achieve its 2% inflation target some time next fiscal year as it had expanded its monetary stimulus. He further indicated that the central bank would not hesitate to ease its monetary policy again if it is not able to achieve its inflation goal. Overnight data indicated that, the monetary base in Japan recorded a rise of 36.9% in October, following a rise of 35.3% recorded in September. The pair is expected to find support at 113.31, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.92. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.95, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.20. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting would be closely followed by investors, scheduled for release tomorrow.
USD/CHF
The USD declined 0.61% against the CHF and closed at 0.9594.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9562, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9537. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9629, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9671. Going forward, investors await Switzerland’s CPI data for further cues, scheduled in a few hours from now.
 
Daily Outlook 6-11-2014

EUR/USD
the EUR declined 0.62% against the USD and closed at 1.2475. Germany’s services PMI expanded less than expected to 54.4 in October, against market expectations for a level of 54.8. indicating a worsening situation in the nation’s economy. Meanwhile, the region’s monthly retail sales retreated 1.3% in September, dropping to its lowest level since April 2012, more than market expected drop of 0.8% and compared to a gain of 0.9% recorded in August, thus stoking fears that the region could fall into another recession. In economic news, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI dropped to a 4-month low of 57.1 in October, compared to a reading of 58.6 in the previous month. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2441, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2393. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2552, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2615. Trading trends in the Euro today would be governed by the ECB’s interest rate decision, scheduled later today. Meanwhile, investors would closely watch the US initial jobless claims data for further cues.
GBP/USD
the GBP fell 0.26% against the USD and closed at 1.5966, after the UK services PMI dropped to a level of 56.2 in October, marking its lowest reading since May 2013, more than market expectations to drop to a level to 58.5 and compared to previous month’s mark of 58.7, thus dampening optimism over the health of the Britain economy. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5881, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5797. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6036, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6107.Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the BoE’s crucial interest rate decision, scheduled later in the day.
USD/JPY
the USD strengthened 1.09% against the JPY and closed at 114.70. Earlier today, the BoJ minutes from its October monetary policy meeting indicated that policy board members remained upbeat that the nation’s economy was expected to continue to recover moderately and the effects of sales tax hike in April 2014 would ease gradually. In economic news, Japan’s leading index climbed to a level of 105.6 in September, higher than market expectations for a reading of 105.5. The pair is expected to find support at 114.03, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.85. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 115.95, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 116.70.
USD/CHF
The USD rose 0.57% against the CHF and closed at 0.9649. The Swiss Franc lost ground, after Switzerland’s monthly consumer prices remained flat in October, after advancing 0.1% in the previous month. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9595, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9549. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9675, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9709. Going forward, investors look forward to Switzerland’s SECO consumer confidence index, set for release in a few hours from now.
 
Daily Outlook 12-11-2014

EUR/USD
The EUR rose 0.40% against the USD and closed at 1.2474. In the US, the NFIB small business optimism index rose to a level of 96.10 in October, compared to a level of 95.30 registered in the previous month. Meanwhile, the nation’s Redbook index on a yearly basis recorded a rise of 3.80% in the week ended 07 November, following a rise of 3.90% recorded in the prior week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2407, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2348. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2513, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2560. Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s industrial production data, set for release in a few hours.
GBP/USD
The GBP rose 0.47% against the USD and closed at 1.5920. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5848, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5786. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5960, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6010. Looking ahead, investors await the UK’s ILO unemployment rate, scheduled in a few hours. Meanwhile, the BoE’s quarterly inflation report will attract considerable market attention, scheduled later today.
USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.91% against the JPY and closed at 115.89.The pair is expected to find support at 114.98, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 114.15. Earlier today, the BoJ Board Member Ryuzo Miyao stated that the central bank could start discussing about winding up its ultra-loose monetary policy in the second half of fiscal 2015, as the recent stimulus expansion decision had increased the probability of the BoJ meeting its 2% inflation target. Overnight data indicated that, Japan’s tertiary industry index rebounded 1.0% on a monthly basis in September, following a drop of 0.1% recorded in the previous month. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 116.37, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 116.94. Going forward, investors look forward to Japan’s annual machine orders data for further cues, scheduled overnight.
USD/CHF
The USD declined 0.36% against the CHF and closed at 0.9646. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9618, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9583. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9695, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9737.
 
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