Daily Analytics from Fibo Group

OPEC oil output only rises by 90,000 bpd in March

According to Reuters estimates, OPEC oil production changed slightly in March - an increase of 90 thousand bps.

The main contribution was made by Saudi Arabia (+100 thousand bpd), Iraq (+40 thousand bpd), United Arab Emirates (+60 thousand bpd), Nigeria (+30 thousand bpd), Angola (+20 thousand bpd).
The decline in production continued in Iran (-70 thousand bpd), Libya (-45 thousand bpd), Venezuela (-40 thousand bpd).
As we all recall, the agreement on the limitation of production under the OPEC+ transaction has ceased to be effective from today.
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On the first day of April, when the OPEC+ restrictions ceased to apply, Saudi Arabia began to fulfill the promise to increase oil supplies to the market, however, a number of tankers leave Saudi ports with oil without their final destination (which once again confirms that the oil wars actually occur in verbal form (in the media)).
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PMI: Is business activity growing?

The global PMI, which characterizes the business environment in world industry, rose from 47.1 to 47.6 points in March. Formally, this allows us to speak of a slowdown in the recession, but, in fact, the entire growth of the index was exclusively associated with China, while in all other countries the recession sharply intensified.

🇺🇸 US PMI fell to 48.5 in March, compared with 50.7 in February.

🇬🇧UK PMI fell to a three-month low of 47.8, compared with 51.7 in February.

🇪🇺Eurozone PMI fell to 44.5 in March, the lowest in 92 months, from 49.2 in February.

🇯🇵 Japan's PMI slowed the fastest after the 2011 tsunami - fell to 44.8 in March, compared with 47.8 in February.
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What we are witnessing is a global industrial recession, and in April its scale is likely to increase amid the introduction of quarantines in a wide range of countries.
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US Unemployment: new records

For the week, 6.648 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the United States - 30 times more than in ordinary weeks. A week earlier - 3.283 million.
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Ministry of Labor data provide insights into the severity of the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The COVID-19 outbreak led to the freezing of a large part of the economy in the United States and in dozens of other countries of the world.
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Global cost of coronavirus may reach $4.1 trillion

The cost of damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic can reach $4.1 trillion, or almost 5% of the global gross domestic product, depending on the spread of the disease in Europe, the United States and other large economies, the Asian Development Bank said.

A shorter containment period could limit the damage to $2 trillion, or 2.3% of world production. Developing countries in the Asian region, including China, will account for 36% of the total cost of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, on March 6, ADB believed that a virus outbreak would cost the world economy $347 billion, and growth rates would decline by as much as 0.4%. Since then, the epicenter of the epidemic has shifted from China to Europe and the United States, with the number of reported cases currently exceeding 1 million.

ADB lowered its growth forecast for Asia in 2020 from 5.5% to 2.2% last September. The forecast for China has been reduced from 6% to 2.3%. For comparison: last year, the country's economy grew by 6.1%. According to the report, this year there will be weak growth in all sub-regions of developing countries in Asia.

Countries dependent on tourism and raw materials, including Thailand, will suffer the most from the pandemic. If the epidemic can be stopped within three to six months, the economy will recover faster.

Inflation is likely to accelerate due to rising food prices, even despite declining economic activity; but low commodity prices will help smooth out price hikes, the ADB report said.
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🔥Market Watch🔥

💥Incredible rally in the oil market💥


We conclude the week with the issues surrounding financial markets which of course is a, lack of liquidity and, as a result, panic.
I will begin today's review with an event that occurred on Wednesday, April 1. Just before the opening of the American trading session which is also the end of the trading session in London, we observed incredibly strong growth of the AUD throughout the market. It is worth noting that the growth of the AUD/USD pair, which exceeded 130 points, lasted only 5 minutes, and over the next 5 minutes, the currency was sold off and more than half of the gains were lost.

Given the nature of the price movement, I can assume that the reason is the lack of liquidity at the time of opening of one trading session while the other session was closing
Another strange factor this week was the sudden rise in oil prices. We are talking about a record daily growth in the price of American WTI grade oil, which exceeded 30%. At the same time, a significant part of the upward movement occurred in less than an hour and exceeded $ 5. In this case, the driver of such a rally was Donald Trump's statement where he is confident that Russia and Saudi Arabia will reduce oil production by 10 million barrels, and possibly more.

Since this is almost half of the total production by these countries, the likelihood of such a scenario is slim. Accordingly, I assume that we are talking not only about Russia and Saudi Arabia, but about the whole OPEC cartel and its allies, which produce more than 40 million barrels per day. Given the current oversupply of oil, which is already estimated at 35%, I believe that OPEC+ will find a compromise to support the oil market and its own economies.
Moving to the American trading session, I will draw your attention to the upcoming publication of the latest labor market statistics. Given the disastrous figures on the initial applications for unemployment benefits, there is a risk the latest figures will be below analysts’ expectations and I expect weakness in the USD.

We will conclude this issue with an overview of the EUR/USD currency pair.
After a false breakdown of resistance at 1.0950, it was decided to open a short position when retesting this level. A Stop Loss was set at the previous maximum, and A Take Profit at 1.0850. As we can see now, the pair collapsed under the psychological level of 1.0800, which allowed the trader to earn $1000 with minimal risk.

The above review is not a direct guide to trading, and can only be classed as recommendations.

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Saudi Arabia calls for OPEC emergency meeting

Saudi Arabia called for an urgent meeting of OPEC+ member countries, Saudi Press Agency reported April 2.
The purpose of the meeting is to conclude an agreement between OPEC+ countries that will restore the "desired balance" in the oil market.
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This news is contrasting with the background of the previous position of Saudi Arabia - rejection of anyone’s position in general, conversation from a position of strength, etc.

Moreover, OPEC will invite the Texas oil regulator to participate in the OPEC+ meeting, which will take place on April 6 via teleconference.
- “We invite the United States as the main producer of oil in the world” (c)
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📆Economic calendar for the week 📆

Trends of the current week are undoubtedly oil events:

▪️OPEC + is mobilizing: the OPEC + meeting should be held on April 9. However, there are some disagreements that may delay this meeting for at least 1 day.
According to Bloomberg, oil diplomats are trying their best to convene a meeting of G20 energy ministers on April 10 to attract the United States to an agreement on oil.
The transfer of negotiations on the oil market from the OPEC+ format to the G20 will not only be a political victory for Russia, and indeed Saudi Arabia (the degree of independence of the kingdom from the United States will increase). This will be a practical step towards multipolarity.

▪️#coronavirus
A sharp decrease in the number of cases:
After a sharp take-off the day before (more than 100K new cases per day), today there is an equally sharp decrease in this indicator (about 70K), in almost all countries. Total: 1,278,993 / 69,723
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Weekly Calendar:

04/06/2020, Monday
🇺🇸 The new wave of QE from the US Federal Reserve for the Central Bank of the world (launch of a temporary repo mechanism for foreign central banks).
🇬🇧 UK Construction #PMI.

04/07/2020, Tuesday
🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision.
🇪🇺 EU Coronavirus Emergency Ministerial Meeting.
🇨🇦 Canada Ivey #PMI.

04/08/2020, Wednesday
🛢US Crude Oil Reserves;
🇺🇸 US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.

04/09/2020, Thursday
🛢OPEC meeting + (+ USA).
🇪🇺ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting;
🇺🇸 #PPI US Producer Price Index.

04/10/2020, Friday
🥳 Good Friday: day off in the UK, France, Germany and other countries, US markets are closed.
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🔥Market Watch🔥

💥OPEC+ deal💥


Today, the oil market has opened with a fairly strong bearish gap, but by the opening of the European trading session, the situation has changed significantly.

Recall that on Thursday, Donald Trump announced that Saudi Arabia and Russia could reduce oil production by as much as 10 million barrels. There was also information about the OPEC+ meeting to discuss the introduction of quotas for oil production. All this provided additional support for oil, which last week pushed the price of WTI American crude oil above $30.0 per barrel.

All information coming out from Russia regarding the “oil deal” indicates a high probability of reaching an agreement. Nevertheless, the activity of buyers remains moderate near the $30 a barrel mark. Therefore, only further action from the United States and Saudi Arabia can return buyers to the market.

I’ll draw your attention to the USD/CAD currency pair, which has fallen by 180 points. At the same time, demand around the support level of 1.4100 remains strong, which limits the selling pressure. I’ll also draw your attention to the fact that on the way to 1.3990 there is a support level of 1.4060, which should provide additional support. Given all this, only another strong rise in oil prices can lead to a collapse of the pair to 1.3990.

Moving to the American session, the economic calendar is looking pretty empty. At the same time, trading activity should remain active amid clear uncertainty regarding short-term prospects, due to the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Given the difficult economic situation in the eurozone and especially in Italy and Spain, compared with the United States, I expect a prolonged weakening of the EUR and, as a consequence, the EUR/USD currency pair. The immediate target for sellers is the 1.0770 mark, while there is a risk of a pair falling to 1.0720 and further to 1.0650. This scenario remains a priority until the quote returns above 1.0890.

The above review is not a direct guide to trading, and can only be classed as recommendations.

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💧Oil is cheaper than water: what happens if the new OPEC+ deal fails? 💧

🚩 The risks of a possible disruption of the OPEC+ meeting, scheduled for April 9, remain high. Last weekend, Russia and Saudi Arabia exchanged "taunts" at each other about the collapse of the oil market, and the United States, which actively joined in the discussion of the current situation, did not put forward any concrete proposals.

🚩 At the end of last week, oil prices showed significant growth during two consecutive trading sessions on reports that the alliance will discuss the possibility of reducing oil production by 10 million barrels per day in total. On Monday, April 6, prices started to decline after information on the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting from April 6 to April 9.

🚩 The OPEC + meeting on Monday lost its meaning, as the United States so far does not want to participate in the deal. Last weekend, Russia and Saudi Arabia exchanged accusations against each other over the collapse of the oil market. However, the problem is not in the positions of traditional manufacturers, but in the intentions of the United States, the expert believes. At the end of last week, Trump spoke about the readiness of Russia and Saudi Arabia to reduce production by 10 million barrels, but Washington, for its part, has not put forward any proposals.

🚩It is still very early to take the decline in production for granted, the probability of failure of the negotiations is still quite high. If the United States is not ready to participate in the deal, the market will follow the path of a longer period of low prices that shale companies will ruin. By the way, this process has already begun ...
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⛔️ RBA rate: Bank of Australia maintains interest rate at 0.25% ⛔️

At its April afternoon meeting, the RBA voted to keep interest rates unchanged, a few weeks after they were cut from 0.5% to 0.25% during an unscheduled meeting in mid-March, as a result of the escalation of the coronavirus crisis.
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#AUDUSD responded with a powerful wave of growth in the national currency. However, one should not take the decision to keep the rate unchanged positively, as the main drivers of the foreign exchange market are now in a slightly different plane:

🔹Yesterday, we saw a most powerful rise in stock: the S&P500 index added 7%. Positive sentiments persist today in Asia. Oil prices on the eve of the expected OPEC+ meeting on Thursday are held at high levels. Bloomberg reports that the United States will not participate in this meeting.

🔹Analysts at #FiboGroup believe that the bottom phase has passed and a full reversal is brewing, in all types of markets. The return of the economy to normal will not have a “V” shaped character and will be stretched and smoother - due to global quarantine, recovery will be constrained by negative macro statistics, which for another 2-3 months will reflect the consequences of massive stops in state economies, “U” - figurative character.
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Global oil powers close in on historic deal to curb output

The largest oil producing countries in the world are working out conditions for an unprecedented deal to mitigate the destructive effects of the crisis caused by the coronavirus, in preparation for an emergency meeting this week.

The OPEC Secretariat invited a number of countries that were not previously members to the online meeting on the oil market (in total 36 participating countries).
At the same time, the USA and Canada were not included in the list of invitees.
For the deal to be successful , some form of cooperation with the United States is still required.

The expanded format is pleasing, but it lacks the United States and Canada. Of course, one would think that the participation of the USA and Canada does not make sense, because they are members of the G20, whose meeting will be held the day after OPEC+. But Argentina and Brazil, who were invited to the OPEC+ meeting, are also members of the G20.

Thereby now everything just confirms the version of US tactics aimed at postponing the final decision, and the possible "undermining" of the deal.
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🔥Market Watch🔥

💥It's time to quarantine💥


Since the end of last week, we hear more and more often that the economic consequences of the quarantine are extremely high and are largely underestimated. For example, Australia is already beginning to consider the possibility of partial easing of restrictions in connection with the epidemic. A number of other countries, including the United States, are also discussing such scenarios with the possibility of the partial reduction of restrictions for certain types of businesses.

Of course, the reduction of restrictions, which will lead to an increase in business activity, is a positive. Even though there is a possibility of the coronavirus spreading further, we are already witnessing another wave of interest in trading activity in the foreign exchange market.

Let's go back to Australia and AUD, which has strengthened quite a lot across the entire spectrum of the market. Thus, the AUD/USD currency pair has strengthened by 220 points since the beginning of this week, reaching a strong technical resistance level of 0.6200. Therefore, the emergence of information about the willingness to reduce restrictions, for example, the USA, should give a boost to the USD, along with any other large economies and their currencies.

Now, let's move on to the oil market and once again we hear Donald Trump, who hints that the United States is unlikely to join the OPEC+ deal. As a result, the price of WTI oil fell to $23 per barrel. Let me remind you that currently, the main driver of growth for the oil market remains the expectation that OPEC+ will agree to reduce production by 10 million barrels. Trump's comment reduces the likelihood of a cartel compromise at a meeting scheduled for Thursday, April 9th.

As a result, following the movement in the price of oil after Trump’s comments, we observed a weakening of the CAD. While the oil price was rising we saw a weakening of the USD/CAD currency pair and we can count on a bigger decline in the quotes of this currency pair if there is a further increase in oil prices. This is only possible if an OPEC+ agreement is reached.

The above review is not a direct guide to trading, and can only be classed as recommendations.
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EU ministers fail to agree coronavirus economic rescue

The night vigils of the finance ministers of the EU member countries (Eurogroups), which lasted as long as 16 hours in the format of a video conference, did not bring results. Participants could not agree on the final text of the plan to save the national economies affected by the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic.

It was assumed that an unprecedentedly huge amount of half a trillion euros would be allocated to support businessmen, farmers and those who were left without work.
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Berlin is not ready to take on the debt burden of the Southerners. The pressure on Germany is increasing. We see that Spain and Italy have already changed the tone in the negotiations, more and more insistently demanding help from the Germans.
Eurogroup talks on anti-crisis economic support will continue tomorrow - April 9th. And, perhaps, the current situation will be the main test of strength for the European Union.
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US has concluded an OPEC deal

Today Donald Trump said that the United States is unlikely to agree on a decrease in oil production coordinated with OPEC+, as American oil companies have already reduced it. Trump also expressed hope that the OPEC participants will be able to agree on everything, otherwise he has “a lot of interesting options.”
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- “I don’t think so. We have already reduced US oil production. We are very market oriented. If you look at Texas, North Dakota, they have already reduced some of the other states that are successfully working on this. They automatically reduced them.”
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As we expected, a natural reduction in US production (already by 600 thousand barrels, and expansion to 1.6 million barrels by the end of the year) will become America's conditional participation in the new OPEC+ deal. They seemed to have escaped political defeat, and at the same time, the oil showdown came to an end. We forecast an increase in the cost of American oil (#USOIL is available for trading with us) to $45-50 by the end of 2020.
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UK economy struggled before coronavirus crisis escalated

On Thursday official data showed that the UK economy was almost stagnant for the three months preceding February, before the coronavirus or COVID-19 crisis led to growth in the country and also pushed it towards what is likely to become severe recession.
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Such data must be interpreted as lagging. Collecting statistics for the previous quarter of course works. Bank of England is guided by these indicators and builds its monetary policy in ordinary conditions, but not in the current stressful situation. The effect of #covid19 helped to cross out all the past data and now we start everything from scratch. The best opportunities for earning, which have not existed for at least 20 years, are opening up right now.
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Dollar heads for weekly loss on Fed move, easing virus fears

The dollar is heading for a weekly decline on Friday, as the new US Federal Reserve loan program for small companies and signs of slowing the spread of coronavirus infections have led to a decrease in demand for this safe haven asset.

The pound rose against the dollar and the euro as markets breathed a sigh of relief after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson left intensive care after hospitalization due to persistent symptoms of COVID-19.

Currencies from oil-producing countries are also holding up against the US currency, but the outlook remains uncertain due to doubts that the deal between OPEC and its allies for a record reduction in oil supplies will be enough to offset the drop in global fuel demand.

Risk sentiment has been steadily improving this week due to preliminary signs of a pandemic slowdown in hot spots in the U.S. and Europe, but some analysts remain cautious, given that little is known about the virus and many countries continue to deal with the huge economic damage caused by the outbreak.

In relation to the euro, the dollar was at the level of 1.0939 dollars for the last time with a weekly decrease of 1.35%.

Trading on this day is likely to be sluggish, as financial markets in Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, the UK and the US are closed on Good Friday.
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Market Watch

How OPEC+ saved the oil market


Today's review will begin with the fact that for most traders and investors, today is a public holiday. Australia and New Zealand were closed in connection with the celebration of Good Friday, which will then be followed by Europe, and the United States. As a result, today’s trading session will consist of thin liquidity, which, in turn, may be accompanied by the appearance of very strong price movements due to lack of liquidity in the market.

Most currency pairs remain in a narrow trading range, while the oil market is completely closed. Nevertheless, it remains the most talked about market, due to the significant volatility in price from Monday to Thursday.

OPEC+ agreed to reduce oil production by 10 million barrels, which was is in line with expectations. Nevertheless, this is not enough to balance the supply and demand, which has already led to a fairly strong collapse in oil prices. Let me remind you that a number of analysts and economists currently state that at current production levels, the oil market is oversupplied by 30 million barrels per day, as a result, a decrease in oil production by 10 million barrels per day is not able to compensate for the imbalance that has appeared.

Given all this, the oil market may open on Monday with a strong bearish gap. But much will depend on the position of the United States and whether they are ready to reduce their own production. Indeed, OPEC + refers to the need for the United States and Canada to also cut production by another 5 million barrels.

And now let's move on and begin analyzing the AUD/USD currency pair.

One of the fundamental factors for buying this pair was the fact that China resumed business activity in the manufacturing sector, which, in turn, contributes to an increase in demand for raw materials. Let me remind you that Australia is one of the main suppliers of raw materials for China. As a result, after the breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6200, it was decided to open a deal to buy.

Buy 1 lot from 0.6210, Take Profit 0.6310, Stop Loss 0.6185. I will draw your attention to the fact that the level of 0.6310 has been a technical level of resistance since March 13. The profit on this transaction amounted to $1000, while the risk was only $250.

The above review is not a direct guide to trading, and can only be classed as recommendations.
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EU ministers agree on a 540 billion euro crisis package

- The head of the Eurogroup, the Minister of Finance of Portugal, Mario Centeno, said that 100 billion euros will go to subsidize wages so that companies can reduce working hours, not jobs. In addition, the European Investment Bank (EIB) will expand lending to companies by €200 billion, while the European Stability Facility (ECM) fund will provide governments with €240 billion of cheap loans.
- It is noted that the package of measures taken will increase financial support for the economies of the EU countries in a pandemic to 3.2 trillion euros ($3.5 tron), which is the largest anti-crisis program in the world.
- An agreement was reached after Germany and France managed to overcome the opposition of the Netherlands, which insisted on adding economic conditions to the emergency loan for governments experiencing the effects of the pandemic, and convinced Italy that the bloc would show solidarity.
- At the same time, the use of joint debt to finance recovery is not mentioned - a point that Italy, France and Spain insisted on, but opposed by Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria.
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〽️CBA recommended buying euro against the dollar with a target at 1.1600 〽️

The stimulus package and credit lines through ESM adopted the day before will help restore the eurozone economy faster.

Australia's largest financial conglomerate, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, recommended buying the euro against the dollar on expectations that the eurozone’s economic response to the coronavirus would provide financial stability in the region.

The agreed package of support measures includes a special credit line for eurozone countries through the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). For investors, this is a signal that thanks to the ESM, countries now have access to sufficient liquidity and are able to prevent the destabilizing expansion of government bond yield spreads.

The new stimulus package along with previously announced tax and fiscal support methods will lead to a faster recovery in the region than previously anticipated.

This will allow the euro/dollar to return to a fair price of about 1.1600, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

The euro/dollar on Monday morning, April 13, was trading at 1.0940. The level of 1.1600 was last seen in this currency pair in October 2018.
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📆 Economic calendar for the week 📆

On April 12, OPEC met in an expanded format. As a result, the OPEC+ countries agreed to reduce oil production by 9.7 million. The deal will last two years. Given the expanded OPEC++ agreement, the total reduction in production in the world may reach about 19–20 million bpd.

On the eve of spring meetings the Head of the IMF warned that this year the global economy will face the deepest recession since the Great Depression, in addition the uncertainty around the duration of the crisis caused by the epidemic means that everything can end even worse.
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Weekly calendar:
04/13/2020, Monday
🥳 Catholic Easter Holiday

04/14/2020, Tuesday
🌍 IMF reports on international financial stability and global economic outlook

04/15/2020, Wednesday
🌍 G20: virtual meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors
🇺🇸 Retail Sales (March), forecast -8% m/m
🇺🇸 Industrial Production (March), forecast -4.2%
🛢 US Crude Oil Reserves
🇨🇦 Canada's #interestrate
🛢 IEA will publish a review of the oil market

04/16/2020, Thursday
🇦🇺 #labormarket Australia's March employment rate
🛢 OPEC will publish a review of the oil market

04/17/2020, Friday
🇨🇳 China's first quarter GDP
🇨🇳 March Industrial Production
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