Can we predict the next halving of bitcoin with the help of previous cycles?
A bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place every 210,000 blocks. Three bitcoin halvings have already taken place, one in 2012, 2016, and the last halving in 2020.
The bitcoin halving prediction shown above is for the next halving set to occur in 2024.
The next bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place at block 840,000 which is predicted to be on Jun 30, 2024.
At the bitcoin halving 2024, the bitcoin block reward is scheduled to drop from 6.25 bitcoin per block to 3.125 bitcoin per block.
From a technical analysis point of view we could roughly estimate the next halving in August 2024. It is still a bit early to have a precise estimate, at the time of writing this idea we are on November 27, 2022, date at which the market has not yet reached its lowest point.
We can see from past data that over the last twelve years August has been more often in the negative than in the positive. In the ten months preceding it, especially April 2024 and May 2024 could be conducive to a potential halving of 2024.
The financial markets are cyclical, so there is a good chance that bitcoin will go up at some point, but since it is highly correlated to the S&P500 it could be in 1 month or 10 years.
To guarantee that bitcoin could exceed its high would be completely absurd, given the short history we have of bitcoin , the very notion of halving is to be taken with a pinch of salt. Indeed it has only happened three times. The market is very young (less than 20 years) so it is very complicated to predict these cycles.
In my opinion, in order to predict the next halving (and although according to me this notion of halving should be taken with a pinch of salt), we should wait to see where our next low will be. Depending on this, we could then observe whether the macroeconomic environment is evolving in a direction favourable to a next bull run. If the low point seems logical (around $12,000), that the environment is favourable to a new bull run and finally that a range break occurs from above $34,000 then it could seem interesting to invest in BTC to aim for $65,000 or even why not a new ATH.
I would like to remind you that cryptocurrencies are very risky and highly volatile investments. Therefore, for the majority of investors, they should represent less than 5% of their capital.